‘Ghost GDP’ and white-collar recession: Citrini warns of AI's 2028 crisis

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‘Ghost GDP’ and a white-collar recession: Substack’s top finance writer warns of AI’s 2028 crisis
The S&P 500 will also plunge 38%, and unemployment will exceed 10%, James Van Geelen's Citrini Research predicts.

‘Ghost GDP’ and a white-collar recession: Substack’s top finance writer warns of AI’s 2028 crisis | Fortune

‘Ghost GDP,’ a white-collar recession, and the death of friction: Substack’s top finance writer warns of AI’s 2028 crisi

‘Ghost GDP,’ a white-collar recession, and the death of friction: Substack’s top finance writer warns of the 2028 AI crisis nobody sees coming
Nick Lichtenberg
By Nick Lichtenberg
Business Editor
February 23, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
8 min read

“Ghost in the machine” isn’t just an album by The Police. It’s a midcentury term, coined around 1949, to engage with an old philosophical debate that goes back hundreds of years: Is consciousness biological, driven by an organ called the brain? Or is there some kind of ghost in the machine that is our body, driving us on in almost supernatural fashion? The impact of artificial intelligence on the economy, having taken economics in philosophical directions by reviving the concept of the “superman,” is forcing analysts to grapple with its presence as a ghost in the machine of capitalism.

James Van Geelen, the top finance writer on Substack, is warning that the ghost has entered the machine, and we are not prepared for how dramatic the change will be as a result, and how quickly. Van Geelen, founder of analysis firm Citrini Research who recently claimed his real-world investment portfolio has surged more than 200% since May 2023, recently published a viral “thought exercise” detailing what the firm calls the “global intelligence crisis.” It has to do with “ghost GDP,” the death of the particular “friction” marked by human beings engaging in economics, and the displacement of the “scarce input” for all of economic history: human intelligence.

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‘Ghost GDP’ and a white-collar recession: Substack’s top finance writer warns of AI’s 2028 crisis | Fortune

[문제적 AI 예언: 시트리니 리서치①] "2028년, AI 혼란 덮친다" < DAUM 벤처/스타트업 < 비즈 < 기사본문 - 이코노믹리뷰

[문제적 AI 예언: 시트리니 리서치①] "2028년, AI 혼란 덮친다" - 이코노믹리뷰

[문제적 AI 예언: 시트리니 리서치③] 유령 GDP와 소비의 붕괴 < 일반 < IT/스타트업 < IT < 기사본문 - ER 이코노믹리뷰

[문제적 AI 예언: 시트리니 리서치③] 유령 GDP와 소비의 붕괴 - ER 이코노믹리뷰

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