Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread BIS (2019-10-15)
Financial cycles can be important drivers of real activity, but there is scant evidence about how well they signal recession risks. We run a horse race between the term spread - the most widely used indicator in the lite .. more |
Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired? IJCB (2019-10-15)
The effects of monetary policy during financial crises differ substantially from those in normal times. Using a panel VAR for twenty advanced economies, we show that monetary policy has larger and quicker effects during .. more |
Large central bank balance sheets and market functioning BIS (2019-10-15)
Central banks expanded their balance sheets on an unprecedented scale in response to the global financial crisis and its aftermath. The scale of these programmes naturally gave rise to concerns about their impact on mark .. more |