우-러 전쟁의 교훈으로 '전투 의지'(will to fight) 분석을 개발해 중국에 적용중인 DIA

[위종민]

우-러 전쟁 개전 초기 미국은 우크라이나가 3일 안에 항복할 것으로 예상했지만 전쟁은 1천일을 넘었죠. 

DIA의 수장이 목요일 예상이 실패로 돌아간 이유는 미국 정보당국이 (우-러전쟁 개전 직전 붕괴한 아프가니스탄군과 대조되는) 우크라이나의 '전투 의지'를 제대로 평가하는 데 실패했기 때문이며, DIA는 이 무형요소를 유형화해서 보고서에 통합할 수 있도록 시도하고 있다고 말했습니다. 물론 그 결과는 공개하지 않았지만요. 

시진핑 주석이 결정을 내린다면 'Davidson Window'로 알려진 특정 기간 내 중국이 대만을 침공할 수 있을 것으로 보이나, 중국군이 침공 이후에 무엇을 할 것인지 - 대만의 점령, 대만 동맹국의 지원 저지, 중국 국경의 방호 - 등에 대해 계획을 갖고 있는 지에 대해서는 불확실하다고 합니다. 

또한 북한은 러시아에 1만 명이 넘는 병력을 러시아로 보냈고, 11군단으로 알려진 이 부대는 러시아가 쿠르스크에서 반격하는 데 도움이 되겠지만 그 임무에 적합하지 않을 수 있다고 하네요. 북한 내에서는 잘 훈련된 부대지만 러시아의 기준에는 미치지 못한 것 같으며, 이 부대는 특수작전부대로 급습이나 사보타주 등 다양한 임무를 수행 가능하지만 지역점령이나 반격의 선봉에서 서기에는 적합하지 않을 수 있다고 합니다. 

After US underestimated Ukraine, DIA developed 'will to fight' analysis and is applying it to China - Breaking Defense

After US underestimated Ukraine, DIA developed 'will to fight' analysis and is applying it to China - Breaking Defense

After US underestimated Ukraine, DIA developed ‘will to fight’ analysis and is applying it to China

Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse also said that North Korean troops in Russia may be among the best Pyongyang has to offer but probably aren't suited for the job they could be called to do.

By   Lee Ferranon November 15, 2024 at 1:14 PM

A Ukrainian serviceman smokes a cigaret in a trench at the front line east of Kharkiv on March 31, 2022. (Photo by FADEL SENNA / AFP) (Photo by FADEL SENNA/AFP via Getty Images)

WASHINGTON — The pronouncements in February 2022 were dire. If Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine, US analysts and officials thought Kyiv would fall within as little as three days.

But today, exactly 1,000 days after the Kremlin rolled tanks towards the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv is still standing, supporting a war effort far into the country’s east where the battle lines have stubbornly settled.

Ukraine’s valiant defense of its land, and Russia’s largely inept attempt to take it, were certainly welcome surprises in Washington — but they were surprises nonetheless, which means it was also something of an intelligence failure for the 17 organization-strong American Intelligence Community.

The chief of the Defense Intelligence Agency, whose bread-and-butter mission is estimating the relative might of foreign militaries, said Thursday that one intangible factor threw off the calculations: the Ukrainians’ “will to fight.”

“The Ukrainians … exhibited a will to fight that was far beyond anything any of us had estimated,” Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse said at an event put on by the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, contrasting Ukraine’s resiliency with that of the Afghan armed forces, which collapsed as US-led coalition forces left that Southwestern Asian nation.

Kruse, who was the military affairs advisor to the Director of National Intelligence in 2022 and took the DIA helm in February 2024, also noted the quality of the Russian equipment, the training of individual soldiers and their willingness to share information within their own organization as all factors the US appeared to have misjudged.

But it was the “will to fight” factor that seems to have made the biggest impact on the DIA, so much so that Kruse said his agency is attempting to make the intangible tangible so it can be incorporated into military power reports going forward.

“And so the team went through and built a ‘will to fight’ all-source tradecraft methodology [to ask] ‘What does that look like? How do we assess what that looks like?'” Kruse said.

Incoming Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Jeffrey A. Kruse provides remarks at the DIA Change of Directorship ceremony at DIA headquarters on Joint-Base Anacostia-Bolling, Washington, D.C., Feb. 2, 2024. (DoD photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Alexander Kubitza)

Kruse said the methodology has been applied to “several militaries” so far, including the military’s top priority, China, though he didn’t offer any conclusion on that “will to fight” analysis.

More broadly, elsewhere in his talk Kruse said that the Chinese military did appear to be on track to meet leader Xi Jinping’s goal of being able to invade Taiwan within a predetermined timeline should Xi decide to make that drastic move — likely a reference to reports that Xi set 2027 as the deadline for that capability, what’s known as the Davidson Window. But, Kruse said, he was less sure China had a plan for what to do after the invasion — for the actual holding of land, for preventing Taiwan’s allies from helping and, at the same time, for securing its own borders.

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“I’m not convinced that [Xi] is in a place to do all those things just yet,” he said. “So as you know we’re working to make sure we [understand] where that is and, where we can, change the calculus” for Beijing.

North Korea’s Best In Russia?

Back in Russia, Kruse offered an assessment of the surprise movement of North Korean troops to Russian territory — a number “north of” 10,000 in DIA’s estimation.

It’s a significant number, and one that Kruse said may allow Moscow to conduct an effective counter-attack in Kursk, Russian territory currently held by Ukraine. But, he said, the North Korean troops available might not be the best for the job at hand.

“These North Korean forces are from the 11th Corps; they’re special operations forces. They’re the best trained within North Korea, but I’m not sure they’re up to Russian standards,” Kruse said. “Special operations forces are designed to do certain things — raids, sabotage, a variety of things — [but] it may not be that they’re well designed to go in and be at the front of a mass conventional counteroffensive.”

Taking On The New Intelligence ‘Multiverse’

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s increasingly belligerent actions in the Pacific domain were evidence, Kruse said, of a “macroshift” he’s noticed in recent years, that from a rules-based framework to one in which more countries are willing to use “raw power” to achieve their objectives.

But another macrotrend he highlighted during his keynote address is the shift from a unipolar world to that of a “multiverse.” Kruse took pains to say he wasn’t even attempting to be hip enough to be referencing the multiverse as it exists in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, but meant that even more than a shift toward a multipolar world, the influx of mis- and disinformation has created “information microclimates” — multiple universes of truth.

“Today’s information environment, as you all know, increasingly supported by AI, enables the viral growth of information microclimates that can be really hard to break through or change,” he said. “So deciphering fact from fiction, which is important in the intelligence community, to support decision making and to support warfighters will be a significant hurdle for the foreseeable future.”

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