(토요모임) [4. August. 2018] Saturday meeting Topic

[Scarlet]

Howdy ! 

It's me Scarlett !   

This week we have 4 categories of topics. Do not be obsessed with all the articles too much. Just pick some articles what you have interests and prepare your opinions related to those articles. :) Detailed lists are as follows.

◈ Social Issue

---- Housing crisis: more than 200,000 homes in England lie empty

---- A Mumbai problem: Many vacant houses, many homeless

---- Abandoned buildings still house problems

---- Editorials: The vacant housing problem

◈ Art of Living : Critical Thinking/ Competitive Skills/ Plan B

---- Warren Buffett's Best-Kept Secret to Achieving Massive Success: Critical Thinking
---- Mastering these skills could get you hired in 2017
---- Why Successful People Will Never Neglect A Backup Plan

◈ Psychology

---- 11 incredible psychological tricks to get people to do what you want

◈ Tech. issue.

---- BlackFly is latest attempt at flying car

Hope you enjoy the topics.

With luv

Scarlett

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Housing crisis: more than 200,000homes in England lie empty

Phillip Inman/ Thu 20 Apr 2017 19.15 BST

Birmingham is the city outside London with the most unused properties, followed by Bradford and Liverpool, new figures show

More than 200,000 homes in England with a total value of £43bn were empty for at least six months during 2016 despite the desperate shortage of properties to rent and buy.

According to official figures, Birmingham was the worst affected city outside London with 4,397 empty homes worth an estimated £956m, followed by Bradford and Liverpool.

The wealthy borough of Kensington and Chelsea was the worst performer in London as super-rich owners rejected renting them out or selling up in favour of leaving their properties lying idle.

The royal borough had 1,399 empty homes worth £664m, compared with second-placed Croydon, which had 1,216 empty homes worth £577m.

Across London there were 19,845 homes sitting idle for over six months in 2016, which amounted to £9.4bn worth of property, based on the average price in London of £474,704.

In response squatters groups have sought to occupy empty homes, with one group in January taking over a £15m central London property purchased by a Russian oligarch in 2014 to open it as a homeless shelter.

Councils and the government have worked to cut the number of empty homes, primarily by reducing tax incentives which encouraged owners to leave properties unused.

In recent years most councils have increased council tax bills on second homes and adopted stricter rules on council tax discounts for empty homes.

But some councils appear to have worked harder than others to make inroads into the stock of empty homes. While Birmingham recorded a 13% jump in empty properties in the last year and Liverpool suffered a 5% rise to 3,449, Manchester registered the greatest fall over a decade, dropping 88% to 1,365.

Towns and cities in the north and Midlands filled the top 20 list of local authority areas with the highest number of empty homes. Blackburn shot up the rankings to ninth place after a 35% jump, the biggest increase of any authority outside London, pushing neighbouring Bolton into 10th place.

Homes sitting idle for over six months

Property investment firm Property Partner, which collated the report from the latest Department for Communities & Local Government figures, said Kensington and Chelsea stood out from most London boroughs, which have recorded a fall in the number of empty homes over the last 10 years.
   

In 2006, Newham in East London, was the worst performing borough in the capital, but dramatically cut the number of empty homes over the following 10 years from 2,070 to 593. Likewise, Lambeth has recorded a fall from 2,807 in 2006 to 756 in 2016.

The trend for the world’s super-rich to invest in prime London property as a way to safeguard their wealth, without the need to secure a rental income, has meant the number of empty homes in Kensington and Chelsea rose 22.7% over the same period and 8.5% since 2015.

Property Partner said a large drop in the number of empty homes across England from 2006 stalled in 2015. The figures for 2016 showed little progress.

Article source : https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/apr/20/over-200000-homes-in-england-still-lying-empty-despite-housing-shortages

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A Mumbai problem: Many vacant houses, many homeless
mumbai Updated: Mar 22, 2018 10:39 IST
Smruti Koppikar/ Hindustan Times

This must be the biggest conundrum in Mumbai – lakhs of unsold or unoccupied high-end apartments and millions of poorer citizens living in squalid and dehumanised housing. Yet, affordable or inclusionary housing remains a pipe dream in the city that should have perfected a few models by now.

With unfailing regularity, international property consultants produce reports that offer an insight into how deep the problem runs. There are now 1.09 lakh unsold apartments in Mumbai, most in the upper-middle class segments, according to a recent report. Despite discounts and freebies ​offered by builders and relentless seductive advertising promising unimaginably utopian lives to buyers, the number of unsold apartments has hit its highest mark.

Add to this inventory the lakhs of unoccupied apartments across the city. Most of these, it would be fair to estimate, would be in gated enclaves with exotic – often misspelt – names bought as “investment homes” or second house and so on. Together, these unsold and unoccupied apartments represent the worst side of the city’s housing policies and its skewed market.

At the other end, the numbers of Mumbaiites living in squalid slums, informal or decrepit houses, living without a roof over their heads, or migrants sharing a bed by the hour in a single room remain a blot on the city. Slum dwellers comprised nearly 50-53% of the city’s population in the last decade; the number has marginally declined since slums were redeveloped. But as resettled slum-dwellers say, their quality of life did not vastly improve whereas the cost of living increased. Many sold their flats and went to other slums.

The 2011 Census Survey showed that Mumbai had the maximum slum population of any metropolitan city in India, nearly three times that of Delhi. This has been variously exploited by agencies, real estate lobby and politicians who targeted migrants as “outsiders”. People flock to Mumbai because, above all, it offers work or jobs giving them a chance to improve their lives.

In a jobs-driven city, affordable or inclusionary housing should have been the de facto government policy. A clear government policy should have set the template. Instead, as the city expanded, the housing sector was left to the wisdom of builders, market principles, and monetisation of land. These favoured the profit-first approach, the anti-thesis of what low-cost or affordable housing required.

Mumbai has had mass affordable housing projects in its history. The chawls for textile mill workers, though not the most benevolent of all, gave the working class a low-cost housing option; chawls or semi-apartments built by the Bombay Improvement Trust and Bombay Development Department in the 20th century as “sanitary dwellings for the poor” in prime areas are examples of planned low-cost housing with government intervention.

But when affordability and nature of housing was decided by profits, it was skewed in favour of the high-profits segment. Affordable housing was reduced to a phrase in government documents; successive chief ministers promised it but it meant little on the ground. Now when affordable housing is back in public conversations, it is discussed for its economic potential – capital investment, millions of jobs generated, direct and indirect impact on other sectors, GDP and so on – but key points are still ignored.

Why, for example, can all slum land in Mumbai not be reserved for affordable housing? Despite the slum sprawl, slums occupy less than 10% of the city’s land mass. Why is Floor Space Index (FSI) the only parameter by which construction and housing viability is determined? Why can there not be a mandatory and strictly-applied policy that builders undertaking commercial construction must also construct a certain percentage of it as affordable housing to be sold by a state agency? The possibilities are many.

Affordable or inclusionary housing should be the default for housing policy in Mumbai. But it will require an audacious chief minister and a bold departure from the existing cosy-for-all paradigm. Till that happens, the contradiction of vacant unsold apartment and un​-​housed people will persist.

ARTICLE SOURCE : https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/a-mumbai-problem-many-vacant-houses-many-homeless/story-Nl7ArLUosMTOTw3uNHkfkI.html

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Abandoned buildings still house problems
by Philip Brasor and Masako Tsubuku/ Dec 3, 2016

Japan’s vacant house problem will become worse before it becomes better. According to government estimates there are 8 million residences in Japan with no one living in them, a number that Bloomberg reports will increase to 20 million by 2033, representing a third of all the homes in Japan. A good portion of these residences are abandoned. There are no plans for anyone to live in them ever again, a prospect that alarms the central government, as it should. Abandoned homes are firetraps. Often they are filled with garbage that breeds vermin and surrounded by overgrown vegetation. Unmaintained sewage systems and septic tanks can spread disease. They are eyesores that diminish surrounding property values.

For that reason, the central government implemented a law last year that allows for the designation of certain properties as abandoned houses (akiya) and outlines steps for them to be destroyed. The law gives local governments the authority to make the designations, after which a notice is sent to the owner of the property demanding that he or she remedy the situation and stating that if nothing is done within a certain period of time, the special property tax cut for residences will be rescinded. Normally, land for residential use that contains a structure is taxed at only one-sixth the normal rate, and the structures themselves at one-third the normal rate. So if owners ignore the akiya notice, they will be charged the full 100 percent rate on all property taxes, national and local. Then, if the owner still does nothing, after a certain period of time the local government will have the authority to tear down the house and send the bill to the owner.

Though this sounds simple enough, it is difficult to carry out. In many cases it is almost impossible to determine title to some properties owing to the fact that the person whose name is on the deed has died. In such a situation, the heirs to the property will have to be tracked down and if there is more than one, each person must be contacted and notified of the akiya designation before any action can proceed. This, in itself, can be an expensive undertaking and many local governments don’t want to do it.

To make things easier, some local governments provide subsidies in order to encourage property owners to tear down abandoned buildings. For instance, Kasama in Ibaraki Prefecture will cover one-third of demolition expenses up to ¥300,000. Toyohashi in Aichi Prefecture will pay up to two-thirds the cost of demolition when the expense is over ¥200,000, but only for wooden houses. In Minami Aizu, Fukushima Prefecture, you can receive a demolition subsidy of up to ¥800,000 if you do not pay any local taxes due to low income, or up to ¥500,000 if you are eligible for local taxes. Tokyo, as well as most other major cities, offers no demolition subsidy.

The process of tearing down a house is called kaitai, and some companies specialize in such a service. There are various portal sites on the internet that list these companies on a regional basis, with examples of jobs that give property owners an idea of what the cost may be. On one site we found an outline of a job for a house in Mitaka, Tokyo. The floor area of the house was 33 tsubo (about 100 sq. meters), and the cost of dismantling was set at ¥25,000 per tsubo. In addition, the property had a 33-meter-long cinder block wall that cost ¥2,500 per meter to take down, and a shed that cost ¥15,000 to remove. The disposal of various appliances on the property cost ¥30,000. Additional costs covered the use of special machinery (¥100,000) as well as scaffolding and other equipment to keep the demolition work contained (¥81,600). After a discount was applied, the total cost of the job came to ¥1,260,000.

Additional costs include removal of septic tanks and underground pipes, as well as refuse disposal. After the house is torn down, the kaitai company must get rid of everything. Such companies must be issued certificates to recycle construction materials, and they will definitely pass on the cost to the customer and maybe add a surcharge.

If you’re looking to knock down a building, as with any large job, it’s best to shop around in order to find the best price. In order to do that, however, a representative of the company has to visit the structure to be torn down. The owner should be there during the inspection in order to pin the contractor down on an estimate and make sure they explain every detail of the job. At the same time, the owner should talk to their neighbors so that they understand that this kind of work, which can be noisy, is going to take place.

After the contractor is chosen, the local government must be informed of the work at least one week before it commences if the size of the structure being demolished is more than 80 sq. meters. The contractor will normally handle the paperwork, including permits for recycling refuse and using public roads in case the property doesn’t have enough space to park vehicles and equipment. In addition, electrical and gas utilities should be informed, and if there is a septic tank that is going to remain it should be cleaned before work begins. Waterworks should remain turned on since demolition requires water to keep down dust.

First, the contractor will erect scaffolding and hang tarp so that dust and debris don’t escape. Then workers rip out walls and floors, and after that the frame is dismantled. All refuse is sorted by hand. Some local governments also mandate that the soil be checked for contaminants and cleaned if any are found. After all the refuse is carted away, the contractor will level the ground.

When demolition and removal is complete, the owner must report the work to the local branch office of the Ministry of Justice so that the structure can be removed from maps and other registries. If this isn’t done within a month after the work is finished, the owner will be fined. Notaries can do this work as proxies for a fee.

Article source : https://www.japantimes.co.jp/community/2016/12/03/how-tos/abandoned-buildings-still-house-problems/#.W14SPsKRVhE

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Editorials: The vacant housing problem

May 25, 2015

There were some 8.2 million vacant houses — or one in seven — nationwide as of October 2013. This record number represents more than a twofold increase over the past 25 years. A new law aimed at coping with problems related to them took effect on Monday. Both the public and private sectors need to work out measures under the law to reduce the hazards posed by vacant houses such as fires and collapse but also to reduce their numbers.

Behind the increase in empty houses is the graying of the nation’s population and a population flight to urban areas. When aging rural residents die or move to nursing homes, their houses end up unoccupied because their children, who often live and work in cities, have no interest in moving back.

More than 400 municipalities have enacted by-laws to deal with vacant houses. In response to calls for similar efforts on the national level, the Abe administration initiated the new law, which the Diet enacted in November. Targeted by the law are vacant houses that are in danger of collapse, contain garbage that poses health risks, or are deemed to be blighted. Once such properties are categorized as “specially designated vacant houses,” municipality officials can enter them and identify their owners by using fixed-assets tax information. The municipalities can then request the owners to eliminate the hazards and if they refuse to comply, the municipal authorities can demolish the houses.

The legal powers given to municipalities are expected to help them proceed with steps they deem necessary and appropriate in a legal manner. But municipalities must strictly follow the procedures spelled out in the law, so resolving problems may take a long time. Municipalities should share the knowledge they gain in applying this law with other authorities and the national government with the aim of improving the law as necessary.

What is more important will be adopting measures to reduce the number of vacant houses. In a commendable move, several regional banks in Kyushu have started providing low-interest loans to people who plan to demolish their unoccupied houses. Other banks should follow suit.

Developing the market for the sale of pre-owned houses will also be important. In North America and Europe, houses retain or increase their value over a long period because maintenance is regularly carried out, and used homes account for 60 to 90 percent of the housing market. The corresponding figure in Japan is slightly more than 10 percent.

The national government, the housing industry and the financial sector should develop measures that will help expand the market for used houses. The measures should include expansion of the house renovation industry, expanding the system to eval‎uate the real-estate value of used houses and improve tax measures and bank loans for those who want to renovate their houses as well as for those who want to buy used properties.

Article source : https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2015/05/25/editorials/the-vacant-housing-problem/#.W14NtcKRVhE

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< Questions >

Q1. What do you think of the vacant home phenomenon?

Q2. In India, there are many vacant homes and beggars at a time. Why does it happen?

Q3. Is buying a vacant house a good Idea?

Q4. Is there a vacant property crisis in your country?

Q5. How can municipalities confront the vacant property challenge?

Q6. Where would you like to live between the city and the rural area? Why?

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Warren Buffett's Best-Kept Secret to Achieving Massive Success: Critical Thinking

Denise Hill/ Speech Writer/Senior Editor

Critical thinking skills are essential to success — any kind of success. Successful individuals are thinkers and they surround themselves with thinkers.

Consider Warren Buffett. He is known as the most successful investor of all time, and by his own estimate, he has spent 80 percent of his career reading.1 And what makes him so successful is that he isn’t willing to be a passive recipient of what he reads. Instead, he schedule time to eval‎‎uate the information he gets so as to form his own insights. This may sound counterproductive. We’ve been taught to work more, sleep less, and hyper-focus on the things that directly pertain to our goals. We call it being productive. Buffett and those like him find thinking, reading, and contemplating more productive than taking meetings and “working.” He actively pursues knowledge.

 Why people with strong critical thinking skills like Warren Buffett are more likely to succeed

Critical thinking involves being able to process information independently and to think clearly, logically, and reflectively. It is the ability to engage in rational thought and to understand and establish a connection between ideas. In essence, critical thinking is the ability to reason. It is about being an active learner rather than a passive recipient of information.2

They always question the status quo

The status quo is the current state of affairs. It’s the norm. It’s how things are done. You know you’ve found it when you hear the phrase,“We’ve always done it this way.” Critical thinkers ask questions such as, “Why do we do it that way?” “How can we make it better?” “What are our other options?”

They break down problems into smaller components and see the subtle connections between them

They love to test boundaries. They dissect issues and then find a way to systematically solve them. By examining the individual pieces of a problem they are able to apply solutions that create a domino or cascading effect. They solve one issue which effects another issue and are able to solve them both simultaneously.

They are sensitive to the loopholes in their logic 

Critical thinkers ruthlessly question ideas and assumptions rather than accepting them at face value. They will always seek to determine whether the ideas, arguments, and conclusions represent the entire picture. They do not rely heavily on intuition and instinct. They test, prove, and disprove their hunches.

We are all fallible. Critical thinkers understand this and actively work to find the flaws in their own logic. One’s ability to think critically varies according to his/her current state of mind. Thinkers work to maintain objectivity, view the problem from all possible angles, and seek the input of others who are adept in logic and reasoning.

They tackle problems with a systematic plan

A system is designed to streamline and simplify processes. It improves effectiveness and makes effort more efficient. Most critical thinkers use a top down approach to problem solving. They are systematic in their efforts. They also set aside time for investigating challenging issues and brainstorming ways to push through them. They don’t tackle a problem without a plan.

They apply the scientific method to problem solving

Critical thinkers are usually highly methodical. They approach a problem the same way a scientist would and then move through the phases of the scientific method, conducting experiments to prove and disprove their hypotheses. Each experiment provides insight into the problem and proves or eliminates an idea or solution.

 3 steps to improve your critical thinking skills

Critical thinking is a skill set, meaning it can be learned. Learning to think critically often involves tweaking some of our processes instead of merely trying to adjust our way of thinking. If you do things a certain way, your thinking will follow a certain pattern. You will begin to develop the habit of thinking practically and then critically. Developing this skill takes deliberate practice and persistence.

Here are three steps to get you started:

1. Recognize the biases in your thinking

Biases are common. We all have them. However, our biases lead to fallacies in our thought processes and rob us of our objectivity. The most common and detrimental bias is the confirmation bias- our tendency to see what we want to see. We tend to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirm‎‎s our preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.

To cure confirmation bias, experts3 suggest that inundating yourself with information is not the answer. It’s all about how you filter the information you do have. When you don’t selectively filter information, you lose your objectivity which is the heart of logical thinking. This particular prejudice is most preval‎‎ent in emotionally- charged situations and when you have something to lose. It also shows up when wishful thinking is present.

For example, in the middle of basketball season the home town team has a record that is below 500 and has been on a seven game losing streak. The star player has just gone out with a torn ACL and your friend says to you, “I know in my heart that our home team will win the NBA Championship.”

This statement disregards the facts–or at the very least, fails to consider them– and makes a prediction based on a feeling.

Here are a few ways to overcome confirmation bias:

When you recognize a bias don’t abandon your initial hypothesis right away. It may be completely or even partially correct. Test your theory.

Keep an open mind. Work on trying to come up with alternatives no matter how far-fetched they may seem. Test all of your ideas.

Embrace surprises. Don’t discount them or get discouraged. The unexpected happens. Use this new “surprising” information to your advantage.

2. Use 5 “Whys” to find out the root causes of problems

The “Five Whys” methodology, developed by Sakichi Toyoda (founder of Toyota), uses a”go and see” philosophy. This turns the decision-making process into a search for a solution that is based on an in-depth understanding of what’s actually happening. This method simply involves asking, “Why?” five times, allowing you to dig deeper each time. The goal is to drill down and find the core of the issue.

Here’s a quick example:

The problem you are attempting to solve is that customers are complaining that when they receive merchandise they purchased online it does not match what they ordered (they are getting incorrect items, sizes, etc.).

Why are customers receiving the wrong products? Because the shipping company’s warehouse shipped products that are different from what the customers ordered.

 Why did the shipping company warehouse ship different products than what was ordered? 

  Because the personnel filling the online orders called the order in and gave it to the warehouse via telephone to expedite shipping. Errors were made during this process.

 Why are the online order fillers calling in orders instead of using the normal process?

  Because each shipping order has a slip that must be signed by the shipping directory before it is put into the system and sent to the warehouse.

 Why does each order slip have to be signed by the shipping director before it is shipped?

  Because the shipping director records the information for his weekly reports to the company CEO.

 Why does the shipping director have to record the information for each order this way?

  Because he does not know how to generate the report using the system the order fillers use to send their orders to the warehouse.

Using this process, we were able to locate the breakdown in the process around the third “why.” Asking “Why?” the last two times generated our solution: train the shipping director to use the existing software to generate his reports for the CEO.

3. Treat each problem like an experiment

Using the scientific method to solve problems is an effective and efficient mental model for solving problems. Most people approach problems haphazardly and dive into the middle of the issues and become overwhelmed or miss key elements. Following a process allows you to establish a habit. Remember critical thinking is a skill that requires practice and persistence. Start at the beginning of the process every single time. Here are the steps:

 Define the problem. Ask a question to discover what the true issue is.

 Do background research. Gather information.

 Construct a hypothesis. Make a prediction based on what you know so far, being careful to account for confirmation bias.

 Conduct experiments. Test your hypothesis. Apply the “Five Whys” methodology when necessary.

Analyze your data and draw a conclusion. Analyze the results of your experiments and put them to the test. Are there any other possible solutions? If so, test them out.

 Communicate your results. Present your solution along with your research and evidence.

Always reflect on and review your processes. It helps you to find gaps in your thinking and to adjust. Reflection helps develop objectivity.

With time, practice, and diligence using these three steps your critical thinking process will become a habit. You’ll be able to better predict results, anticipate pitfalls, and avoid biased thinking.

References

[1] ^ Inc.: Why Successful People Spend 10 Hours a Week Just Thinking

[2] ^ Skills You Need: Critical Thinking Skills

[3] ^ Global Cognition: Confirmation Bias: 3 Effective (and 3 Ineffective) Cures

Article source : http://www.lifehack.org/572725/why-critical-thinking-essential-your-success-and-how-you-can-improve?ref=featured_article

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Mastering these skills could get you hired in 2017

25 Oct 2016/ Jacquelyn Smith/ Careers Editor, Business Insider

It's October, and there's a good chance you're looking for a new job.

According to LinkedIn data, this is the month job applications spike on the social networking site.

To find out what exactly employers are looking for, and what it takes to successfully land a job, LinkedIn looked at billions of data points and analyzed all of the hiring and recruiting activity that occurred on its site so far in 2016to identify the most sought-after skills.

Ultimately they uncovered the top 10 skills that can get you hired in 2017 in 14 different countries.

"While we see job applications spike on LinkedIn in October, we know companies aren't actually hiring at the same rate until January," says LinkedIn career expert Catherine Fisher in a press release. "While some skills expire every couple of years, our data strongly suggests that tech skills will still be needed for years to come, in every industry. Now is a great time for professionals to acquire the skills they need to be more marketable."

Here are the hottest, most in-demand skills around the globe:

1. Cloud and Distributed Computing

2. Statistical Analysis and Data Mining

3. Web Architecture and Development Framework

4. Middleware and Integration Software

5. User Interface Design

6. Network and Information Security

7. Mobile Development

8. Data Presentation

9. SEO/SEM Marketing

10. Storage Systems and Management

In a post on LinkedIn, Fisher explains that the "top skills" list reveals several trends about the global job market, including:

1. Demand for marketers is getting lighter

While marketing skills were in high demand in 2015, "things have changed," she writes.

"This year, SEO/SEM dropped five spots from No. 4 to No. 9 and marketing campaign management dropped completely off the list. Demand for marketing skills is slowing because the supply of people with marketing skills has caught up with employers' demand for people with marketing skills."

2. Data and cloud reign supreme

"I smell a dynasty in the making!" Fisher writes. "Cloud and distributed computing has remained in the No. 1 spot for the past two years ... . Following closely on its heels is statistical analysis and data mining, which came in No. 2 last year, and No. 1 in 2014. These skills are in such high demand because they're at the cutting edge of technology. Employers need employees with cloud and distributed computing, statistical analysis and data mining skills to stay competitive."

3. User interface design is what's hot right now

"User interface design (No. 5), which is designing the part of products that people interact with, is increasingly in-demand among employers," Fisher writes. "Data has become central to many products, which has created a need for people with user interface design skills who can make those products easy for customers to use."

Click here to see the full report and breakdown of in-demand skills by country.

Article source : https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/10/2017s-most-in-demand-skills-according-to-linkedin

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Why Successful People Will Never Neglect A Backup Plan

Wen Shan/ Proud Philosophy grad. Based in HK. 

A contingency plan doesn’t sound like what you would discuss with friends over cake and coffee, but it’s an essential part of any actual plans you make. You may need one (or more) for your business, school project, or even a family vacation. The biggest problem with making a contingency plan is that people often aren’t sure about what to include in it. Here is a handy guide for you to make a comprehensive one.

What is a contingency plan?

A contingency plan is a set of actions that you will take when something unexpected happens. Think of it as a backup plan, or a Plan B. It should have instructions that you can follow when your original plan doesn’t work out due to changes in the situation.

A contingency plan prepares you to deal with any future troubles you may encounter, and gives you some sort of escape route out of any accident.1

What happens if you don’t have a contingency plan?

If something goes wrong with your Plan A unexpectedly, or if accidents force you to change your current plan, chances are you will panic. Especially if you’re not well prepared to deal with contingencies, you probably can’t think straight enough to come up with the solution you need at that moment. You won’t know what to do.

What’s worse, until you’re able to get the situation under control, business can’t go back to normal. You’ll have to fix the trouble and make new plans.

What if the contingency plan is a bad one?

Don’t think making a contingency plan is a simple task. A contingency plan should be comprehensive, which requires lots of careful consideration. Otherwise, it is not helpful.

For instance, you may be prepared for the wrong kinds of accidents. And when your plan doesn’t work out as expected, you won’t be organized enough to handle the crisis. That is, you’ll panic.

How can a contingency plan benefit you?

For instance, a contingency plan allows you to deal with accidents quickly and effectively.2 In a business scenario, it can even help you save time and cost in repairing the situation.

Also, a contingency plan helps minimize the negative consequences or losses caused by the unexpected event. It guides you to start dealing with the situation as soon as something goes wrong and keeps you safe.

After all, having a contingency plan ready is reassuring, because you won’t have to worry about making new plans in a rush.

You may think that accidents are unlikely. You may think that your Plan A is perfect. However, you should keep in mind that the future is uncertain until it becomes the present, and that we as human beings can’t control 100% of what happens. You don’t want to regret not having a contingency plan when it’s too late!

How to write a good contingency plan?

There are basically 5 steps:3

We’ll now go through them one by one:

1. Identify

As a contingency plan has to do with what’s unexpected, you have to first try and predict the risks:4

- What could possibly go wrong?

- How likely it would go wrong?

- What’s the impact and consequences of the contingency?

- What should be your reaction or solution?

- How can you prepare for it in advance?

2. Prioritize

Using what you’ve written down in Step 1, rank your risks by their possible impact and likelihood. The more likely the risk will happen and the more serious the impact will be, the higher it should rank.

You have to decide how much weighting to put on each risk according to your situation.

3. Plan

The next step is to actually write your contingency plan. Keeping in mind the resources available to you, design solutions to the risks you want to cover in the plan. Be realistic about your needs: perhaps some issues have to be dealt with before some others, or perhaps you have to take actions within a certain time frame, etc.

It is also important to give clear and simple instructions, so that you won’t forget what you’ve written months later, or that someone will misunderstand them.5

4. Execute

If your contingency plan involves other people, say, your colleagues or your family members, talk it through with them. Let them know what they’re supposed to do when certain things happen.6 Prepare them.

Then, if your plan includes actions to prepare for future accidents, execute them. This can help you lower the risks.

5. Review

Changes happen all the time. For your contingency plan to be practical, you should review it and make adjustments regularly. Eval‎‎uate the items in your plan. Over time, some risks may become more or less likely, or may bring about different outcomes. Learn your situation well, and update your solutions accordingly.

If your plan is about large-scale risks such as natural disasters or server failures, conducting drills is very helpful to identifying any weaknesses of the plan, as well as making sure the people involved will be prepared to act according to the plan when they have to.

Some concrete examples to put things into perspective:

Example 1: Contingency plan for an outdoor exhibition

Potential risk: Rain

Who will be affected: Exhibitors, visitors, organizers and crew members

Action 1: Secure exhibit items

Who will take action: On-site crew members

Preparation: Rain-proof covers for exhibitors’ stalls, email exhibitors with weather forecasts 3 days in advance

Action 2: Lead visitors to sheltered areas

Who will take action: On-site crew members, security guards

Preparation: Mark designated areas as no-parking areas, waterproof jackets for crew

Example 2: Contingency plan for delivering a speech to a big group of audience (co-workers)

tential risk: The projector or the computer doesn’t work

Who will be affected: Me

Action: Write outline and key points on whiteboard as I speak

Who will take action: Me

Preparation: Notes in hard copy, 3 colored markers, printed handouts

References

[1] ^ Mind Tools: Contingency Planning

[2] ^ Chron: Example of a Business Contingency Plan

[3] ^ Karen Dworaczyk: 5 Easy Steps of Contingency Planning

[4] ^ Project Manager: What Is Risk Management in Projects?

[5] ^ Mind Tools: Contingency Planning

[6] ^ wikiHow: How to Write a Contingency Plan

Article source : http://www.lifehack.org/569736/the-ultimate-guide-for-comprehensive-contingency-plan?ref=sidebar

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<Questions>

 Critical thinking -----------------------------

Q1. Do you know any successful individuals like Warren Buffett or Bill gates around you? Do you find any unique characteristics of those people from ordinary person? For your reference, this article suggests 5 characteristics of successful person as follows. 

- They always question the status quo

- They break down problems into smaller components and see the subtle connections between them

- They are sensitive to the loopholes in their logic 

- They tackle problems with a systematic plan

- They apply the scientific method to problem solving

Q2. What is your definition of success? What components are required to be a successful person?

Q3. What is the definition of a 'Critical thinking'? How do you build up and improve critical thinking skills? For your reference, above article suggests 3 steps to improve critical thinking skills as follows. 

1. Recognize the biases in your thinking.

2. Use 5 “Whys” to find out the root causes of problems.

- Why did the shipping company warehouse ship different products than what was ordered? 

- Why are the online order fillers calling in orders instead of using the normal process?

- Why does each order slip have to be signed by the shipping director before it is shipped?

- Why does the shipping director have to record the information for each order this way?

3. Treat each problem like an experiment.

- Define the problem.

- Do background research.

- Construct a hypothesis. 

- Conduct experiments. 

- Communicate your results. 

Q4. While you are reading, are you an active learner or a passive recipient of information? 

 10 Hottest and most in-demand skills for job seekers -----------------------------

Q5. Here are the hottest, most in-demand skills around the globe. Which skills do you have among below 10 skills? Do you have any field you want to practice in the future? 

1. Cloud and Distributed Computing

2. Statistical Analysis and Data Mining

3. Web Architecture and Development Framework

4. Middleware and Integration Software

5. User Interface Design

6. Network and Information Security

7. Mobile Development

8. Data Presentation

9. SEO/SEM Marketing

10. Storage Systems and Management

 Contingency plan -----------------------------

Q6. What is the definition of 'Contingency plan'?

*** A contingency plan 

a set of actions that you will take when something unexpected happens. Think of it as a backup plan, or a Plan B. It should have instructions that you can follow when your original plan doesn’t work out due to changes in the situation.

A contingency plan prepares you to deal with any future troubles you may encounter, and gives you some sort of escape route out of any accident.

Q7. When you establish a plan, do you prepare a contingency plan or a Plan B? If you have some concrete examples for this from your experience, please share it with us?

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11 incredible psychological tricks to get people

to do what you want

Samantha Lee and Shana Lebowitz/ Nov. 24, 2015

There are plenty of ways to get people to do what you want — without them even realizing you’ve persuaded them.

Whether you want people to like you, to agree with you, or to buy your products, use these tips to feel more powerful in your everyday interactions.

Article source : http://uk.businessinsider.com/psychological-tricks-to-influence-people-2015-11?utm_content=bufferdcb93&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

---

<Questions>

Q1. There are plenty of ways to get people to do what you want. Do you have your own ways? 

Q2. How often do you ask the others to do you a favor? 

Q3. When you have any favor how do you ask the others to do it?

Q4. How to politely turn down a task that is beyond the scope of your job description?

Q5. Would you select most efficient 3 ways to make others do what you want from below 11 psychological tricks?

1. Use a "decoy" option to get people to buy your product.

2. Tweak the environment to get people to act less selfish.

3. Help advance someone's goals to get them to do you a favor. 

4. Mimic people's body language to get them to like you.

5. Speak quickly to get an argument opponent to agree with you. 

6. Confuse people to get them to comply with your request. 

7. ask people for favors when they're tired to get them to cooperate. 

8. Display an image of eyes to get peoples to behave ethically. 

9. Use nouns instead of verbs to get people to change their behavior.

10. Scare people to get them to give you what you need. 

11. Focus on what your bargaining partner is gaining, not losing.

--------------------------------------------------------------

BlackFly is latest attempt at flying car
Dave Lee North America technology reporter
12 July 2018

A flying car that will not require a pilot's licence to operate has been unveiled in California.
BlackFly can travel for up to 25 miles (40km) at a speed of 62mph.
Its makers say it will eventually cost the same as a typical sports-utility car, but early models will be more expensive.
It was revealed on Thursday the company is funded by Google co-founder Larry Page.
Mr Page is also behind Kitty Hawk, a separate US start-up currently testing its personal aircraft in Las Vegas.
Several other rival flying cars are in development across the globe.

BlackFly's creator is the Palo Alto-based firm Opener. The car has been tested in Canada, where the country’s aviation authority has authorised its use.
Like Kitty Hawk, BlackFly could perhaps be more accurately described as a human-carrying drone. It is not designed to be driven on roads.
The vehicle carries one person in a small cockpit, powered by “eight propulsion systems, spread across two wings”.
It works best, Opener says, when taking off and landing from grassy surfaces.

'Total command'
“Watching BlackFly take flight just blew me away,” said Darren Pleasance, director of the US Experimental Aircraft Association. “I’ve never seen anything like it.”

While the vehicle will not require a pilot's licence, Opener said as a precaution riders would have to undergo a training programme in order to become acquainted.


“Even though not required by Federal Aviation Administration regulations, BlackFly operators will be required to successfully complete the FAA Private Pilot written examination and also complete company-mandated vehicle familiarisation and operator training," it said.
    Self-driving air taxi lifts off
    Degree in 'flying car' engineering offered online
    Would you take a ride in a pilotless sky taxi?

Opener’s chief executive Marcus Leng said the on-board controls offered “instant gratification”.

“You have total command of three-dimensional space,” he told CBS News correspondent John Blackstone.
“When you press the thumb-stick to climb, you have absolute full control. When you stop in the middle of the air and go off the joystick, the aircraft freezes.
“And when I say freezes… it literally freezes in the air.”

BlackFly can also fly autonomously, Mr Leng said.

'Will they crash? Probably'
Opener joins a long list of companies chasing the ultimate science fiction dream of a flying car, and thanks to rapid improvements in drone capabilities, that future seems closer than ever.

As well as BlackFly and Kitty Hawk, companies such as Uber are also seeking to get into the flying car market - if indeed there ever is one.
The Hiller Aviation Museum in Northern California is a graveyard of failed attempts to create a flying car.

But the museum’s head of operations, Willie Turner, believes this latest batch might be on to something - as long as aviation authorities can accommodate the new ideas.

“Now we have the technology,” he said.
“But the regulations are ‘well you can’t do this, you can’t do that’. They don’t understand it.”

He added: “Now will they crash? Probably, but cars crash every day.
“You know it’s not going to be foolproof but it will be much better than the current system we have now."

Article source : https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44805697

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< Questions >

Q1. What do you think of flying cars?

Q2. Would you like to buy a flying car?

Q3. How would flying cars change our lives?

Q4. Where would you go in a flying car?

Q5. Should people need a license to fly the car?

Q6. Will flying cars mean the end of airplanes?

Q7. What do you think of the idea of flying trains?

Q8. What rules would be needed for flying cars?

[리사홍]

wow! good topics!

[Scarlet]

Thank you Risa !~ And Let's make a good Saturday meeting together. :)