Trump's possible reelection poses uncertainties 트럼프 재선 가능성으로 한국기업에 불확실성 증가

[김우정]

지난 13일(현지시간) 피격사건으로 트럼프의 당선가능성이 커지고 있습니다.
트럼프가 당선될 경우, 작년에 444억달러였던 한국의 대미무역흑자에 대응한 관세부과가 우려됩니다.
트럼프나 바이든 누가 당선되든 한국의 대미투자확대정책은 계속될 것으로 보입니다.
미국대선이후 채칙(관세등 징벌적 조치)과 당근(바이든행정부의 인센티브) 중 어느 정책이 우세할까요? 
 
Trump's possible reelection poses uncertainties for Korean businesses
트럼프 재선 가능성으로 한국기업에 불확실성증가

By Nam Hyun-woo남현우 기자
Posted : 2024-07-16 16:28 Updated : 2024-07-16 16:40
Korea Times

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump listens to speeches on the opening day of the Republican National Convention (RNC) at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wis., Monday (local time). The convention comes just two days after a 20-year-old Pennsylvania man attempted to assassinate him. EPA-Yonhap 도널드 트럼프 전 미국 대통령이 금요일(현지 시간) 미국 위스콘신 주 밀워키 피서브 포럼에서 열린 공화당 전당대회(RNC) 개막식 연설을 듣고 있다. 이번 전당대회는 펜실베이니아 주의 20세의 한 남성이 암살을 시도한 지 이틀 만이다. EPA-연합

Investments in US will continue regardless of who wins race
누가 선거에서 이기든 미국에 대한 투자는 계속될 것

With the odds of former U.S. President Donald Trump's reelection increasing following an assassination attempt on him last week, Korean businesses are cautiously anticipating potential policy changes and uncertainties that may arise during a possible second Trump presidency.
지난주 도널드 트럼프 전 미국 대통령에 대한 암살 기도 이후 재선 가능성이 높아지면서 국내기업들은 제2의 트럼프 대통령 임기중 발생할 수 있는 정책 변화와 불확실성을 조심스럽게 예상하고 있다.

While there are clear concerns about the potential negative impact on the Korean economy, experts and industry officials stress the importance of adopting a prudent approach and carefully monitoring the actual administrative policies. They argue that Washington's principle of demanding greater investments in the U.S. will likely persist unchanged, irrespective of whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins a second term in office.
한국 경제에 미칠 부정적 영향에 대한 우려는 분명하지만, 전문가들과 업계 관계자들은 신중한 접근 방식을 채택하고 실제 행정 정책을 면밀히 모니터링하는 것이 중요하다고 강조한다. 도널드 트럼프나 조 바이든의 연임 여부와 관계없이 미국에 대한 투자확대를 요구하는 워싱턴의 원칙은 변함이 없을 것이라는 주장이다.

During the Biden administration, Korea enjoyed a sharp growth in its trade surplus with the U.S. Korea achieved a historic trade surplus of $44.4 billion with the U.S. last year, the largest ever recorded in their trade history. Chances are high for a new record high this year, as the trade surplus reached $28.7 billion in the first half alone.
바이든 행정부 시절 한국은 대미 무역흑자가 급격히 증가했다. 한국은 지난해 사상 최대 규모인 444억 달러의 역사적인 대미 무역흑자를 달성했다. 상반기에만 무역흑자가 287억 달러에 달했기 때문에 올해 사상 최고치를 경신할 가능성이 높다.

As a result, analysts are concerned that Trump might resort to imposing tariffs to address the trade deficit between Washington and Seoul. The Korea Institute for International Economic Policy said in a report in April that if the Trump administration implements stringent tariff measures, Korea’s annual exports to the U.S. could fall by as much as $24.1 billion.
이에 따라 트럼프 행정부가 한미 무역적자 해소를 위해 관세 부과에 의존할 수 있다는 우려가 나온다. 대외경제정책연구원은 지난 4월 보고서에서 트럼프 행정부가 엄격한 관세 조치를 시행할 경우 한국의 연간 대미 수출액이 무려 241억 달러나 감소할 수 있다고 밝힌 바 있다.

U.S. President Joe Biden, center, poses for a selfie with guests following an event to celebrate the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, on the South Lawn at the White House in Washington, D.C., Sept. 13, 2022. Reuters-Yonhap 2022년 9월 13일, 조 바이든 미국 대통령(가운데)이 워싱턴 D.C.의 백악관 사우스 론에서 열린 2022년 인플레이션 감소법 제정 기념 행사 후 손님들과 셀카를 찍고 있다. 로이터-연합

“Trump has been taking an exclusive stance against countries with which the U.S. faces trade deficits, including Korea,” said Jang Sang-sik, head of trade trend analysis at the Korea International Trade Association (KITA).
장상식 한국무역협회 무역동향분석실장은 "트럼프는 한국을 포함해 미국이 무역적자에 직면한 국가들에 대해 배타적인 입장을 취해왔다"고 말했다.

“And notably, about 60 percent of Korea’s trade surplus with the U.S. comes from the automotive sector.”
"특히 한국의 대미 무역흑자의 약 60퍼센트가 자동차 부문에서 발생한다."

Gaining attention is Trump’s pledge to roll back the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) support for electric vehicles and clean energy, which offers tax breaks and subsidies for carmakers and battery makers.
관심을 끄는 것은 트럼프 대통령이 자동차 제조업체와 배터리 제조업체에 세금 감면과 보조금을 지급하는 '인플레이션 저감법'(IRA)의 전기차, 청정에너지 지원을 철회하겠다는 공약이다.

“I don’t believe that Trump will be able to scrap the IRA immediately even if he takes office, because it is a law whose revision should entail congressional consent,” said Lee Jae-mook, a political science and diplomacy professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (HUFS), citing the former U.S. president’s failure in 2017 to abolish his predecessor’s "Obamacare."
이재묵 한국외대(HUFS) 정치외교학과 교수는 2017년 전임 미국 대통령의 '오바마케어' 폐지 실패를 예로 들며 "트럼프가 IRA가 의회의 동의를 받아야 하는 법이기 때문에 취임하더라도 당장 폐기할 수 있을 것으로 생각하지 않는다."고 말했다.

“Instead, he may be able to use executive orders, tariffs or other presidential powers to strengthen his protectionist approach.”
"대신 그는 행정명령, 관세 또는 다른 대통령 권한을 사용하여 보호주의 접근법을 강화할 수 있을 것이다."

KITA’s Jang also echoed a similar view that an immediate rollback of the IRA is unlikely, given that many EV or battery plants are located in Republican states, but Trump may be able to rely on executive orders to cut incentives and tax breaks.
무역협회의 장실장도 많은 전기차(EV)나 배터리 공장이 공화당 주에 위치해 있다는 점에서 IRA의 즉각적인 롤백은 가능성이 낮지만 트럼프 대통령이 인센티브와 세금 감면 혜택을 줄이기 위해 행정명령에 의존할 수도 있다는 비슷한 견해를 되풀이했다.

An official at the domestic automotive industry said that such a policy change, however, will not affect Korean companies’ strategies of expanding investments in the U.S.
국내 자동차 업계의 한 관계자는 그러나 이러한 정책 변화가 한국 기업들의 대미 투자 확대 전략에 영향을 미치지는 않을 것이라고 말했다.

“Regardless of who wins the election, Korean firms have to expand their investments in the U.S. for the sake of the U.S. EV market itself,” the official said.
이 관계자는 "누가 당선되든 한국 기업들은 미국 전기차 시장 자체를 위해 미국에 대한 투자를 확대해야 한다,"고 말했다.

“For cost-efficiency, companies have to make battery modules for EVs and assemble them into actual vehicles on U.S. soil, given the weight of battery modules and other technical aspects … We believe the basic economic policy principles of Trump and Biden are similar — attracting more direct investments into the U.S. The difference lies in whether it will be enforced through a stick (tariffs or other punitive measures by Trump) or a carrot (incentives by the Biden administration).”
"가성비를 위해서는 전기차용 배터리 모듈을 만들어 미국 땅에서 실제 차량으로 조립해야 하는데 배터리 모듈과 다른 기술적 측면의 무게를 감안할 때… 트럼프와 바이든의 기본 경제정책 원칙이 비슷해서 미국에 더 많은 직접투자를 유치할 수 있다고 본다. 채칙(트럼프의 관세 등 징벌적 조치)을 통해 강제할 것인지, 당근(바이든 행정부의 인센티브)을 통해 강제할 것인지가 차이다.”

A battery industry official said while there is a slim chance of an immediate rollback of the IRA should Trump win a second term, the more likely risk is a potential stagnation of the EV and clean energy industries. The official expressed concerns that, even without direct policy reversals, a second Trump administration might create an environment that could slow down the growth of these sectors.
배터리 업계 관계자는 "트럼프가 연임에 성공할 경우 IRA의 즉각적인 롤백 가능성은 희박하지만 전기차와 청정에너지 산업의 잠재적인 침체 가능성이 높다"고 말했다. 이 관계자는 직접적인 정책 반전이 없더라도 트럼프 행정부가 두 번째로 들어서면 이들 부문의 성장을 둔화시킬 수 있는 환경이 조성될 수 있다고 우려했다.

"I don’t think Trump will fundamentally defy the global trend of the EV and eco-friendly industries, but it is hard to rule out the possibility that the Trump administration may slow down eco-friendly policies,” he said.
그는 "트럼프가 EV와 친환경 산업의 세계적 추세를 근본적으로 거스를 것이라고 생각하지는 않지만, 트럼프 행정부가 친환경 정책을 늦출 가능성도 배제하기 어렵다"고 말했다.

“So, the important task for Korean companies will be to sense and predict how these actual policies will take shape.”
"따라서, 한국기업들의 중요한 과제는 이러한 실제 정책이 어떻게 구체화될 것인지를 감지하고 예측하는 것일 것이다."

A battery plant of Ultium Cells, a joint venture between LG Energy Solution and General Motors, is seen in Tenn., June 4. Yonhap LG에너지솔루션과 제너럴모터스(GM)의 합작법인인 울티움셀의 배터리 공장이 6월 4일 텐에서 모습을 드러내고 있다. 연합

HUFS’ Lee also said that the contradicting policies of Biden and Trump on fossil fuels and the transition to eco-friendly energy could cause significant confusion in the Korean automotive and energy industries, and “an abrupt U-turn” in the U.S. government's regulations on the energy market might also impact domestic companies.
이 교수는 또 화석연료에 대한 바이든과 트럼프의 상반된 정책과 친환경 에너지로의 전환이 한국 자동차와 에너지 산업에 상당한 혼란을 야기할 수 있으며, 미국 정부의 에너지 시장 규제에 대한 '돌발적 유턴'이 국내 기업에도 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 말했다.

An official at a domestic home appliance company said, “There are contradicting assumptions about whether a second Trump presidency will deal a hefty blow to the Korean businesses,” although the general view is that “it is not the first time that Korean companies will be facing a protectionist U.S. government.”
국내 가전업체 관계자는 "트럼프 2기 집권이 한국 기업에 큰 타격을 줄지에 대해서는 상반된 가정이 있다"고 말했지만 "한국기업이 보호무역주의 미국정부를 맞이하는 것은 처음이 아니다는 게 대체적인 시각이다.

“The election is now in the campaigning period, meaning rhetoric and policy promises are meant to be strong and provocative,” an official at a business conglomerate said.
한 대기업 관계자는 "선거는 이제 선거운동 기간에 접어들었으며, 이는 수사와 정책 공약이 강력하고 도발적인 것을 의미한다"고 말했다.

“And as we have witnessed in the controversy between Korea and the U.S. over the IRA, regardless of who becomes the president, such issues could be government-to-government discussions. This underscores the need for the Korean government to play a role in navigating through this uncertain period."
"그리고 우리가 IRA를 둘러싼 한국과 미국간의 논쟁에서 보았듯이 누가 대통령이 되든 그런 문제들은 정부간의 논의가 될 수 있습니다. 이것은 이 불확실한 시기를 헤쳐나가는 데 한국 정부가 역할을 해야 할 필요성을 강조한다."

KITA’s Jang said Korean businesses now appear to be deliberating between the worst-case scenario under a potential Trump administration and a situation where there would be minimal economic impact.
무역협회의 장실장은 한국기업들이 트럼프 행정부의 잠재적인 상황에서 최악의 시나리오와 최소한의 경제적 영향이 있을 것이라는 상황 사이에서 현재 숙고하고 있는 것으로 보인다고 말했다.

“Given the accumulated experience of Korean firms in the first Trump presidency, I believe the most likely outcome appears to be either no significant impact or a slight slowdown, possibly resulting in a modest decrease in sales,” Jang said.
장실장은 "트럼프 1기 때 한국 기업들의 축적된 경험을 볼 때 큰 영향을 미치지 않거나 약간의 둔화로 인해 매출이 소폭 감소할 가능성이 가장 높은 것으로 보인다"고 말했다.

#reelection재선 #uncertainties불확실성 #businesses기업들 #policychanges정책 변화 #tradedeficit무역적자 #tariffs관세 #investments투자 #administration행정부 #eco-friendly친환경 #impact영향