<p> </p><p>  연준에서 뉴노멀 이야기가 나왔네요 . </p><p> </p><p>외신도 대충 그런 .. 고금리 상황의 뉴노멀을 이야기 하네요 . </p><p> </p><p>부정적이든 아니든 .. 미국 채권이 20년짜리 ..가... 5% 넘는 다는데 ,</p><p> </p><p>그러면? .. 밴버냉키가 그랬지요 .. 금리는 고용율에 관계가 있다 ..</p><p> </p><p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Bernanke-Blanchard-conference-draft_5.23.23.pdf" target="_top" class="ke-link">Bernanke-Blanchard-conference-draft_5.23.23.pdf (brookings.edu)</a></p><p>.</p><p>Ben Bernanke Distinguished Senior Fellow Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution Olivier Blanchard C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics May 23, 2023 Conference Draf</p><p> </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b> ABSTRACT </b></p><p>  We answer the question posed by the title by specifying and estimating a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations. The estimated model allows us to analyze the direct and indirect effects of product-market and labor-market shocks on prices and nominal wages and to quantify the sources of U.S. pandemic-era inflation and wage growth. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets, most of the inflation surge that began in 2021 was the result of shocks to prices given wages, including sharp increases in commodity prices and sectoral shortages. However, although tight labor markets have thus far not been the primary driver of inflation, the effects of overheated labor markets on nominal wage growth and inflation are more persistent than the effects of product-market shocks. Controlling inflation will thus ultimately require achieving a better balance between labor demand and labor supply.</p><p> </p><p>그래서 오늘 지금 .. 채권 떡락에 .. 째려보던  증시도 난리네요 ...</p><p> </p><p>만약? 미국의 10년물 국채가 5%를 넘는다면 .....;;;..?  </p>
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