Powell puts September rate cut on table 파월, 9월 금리인하 거론

[김우정]

파월 연준의장이 금리인하를 본격적으로 거론했습니다.
물가지수가 최근 목표치인 2%에 근접하고 있다고 말했습니다.
미국의 기준금리인하는 9월에 실시할 것으로 보이고 0.5% 인하보다는 0.25%가 될 것으로 보입니다.
따라서 한국은행의 기준금리인하는 10월 금통위에서 발표할 것으로 보입니다.
 
Powell puts September rate cut on table after Fed leaves borrowing costs unchanged
파월은 연준이 차입 비용을 변경하지 않고 9월 금리인하를 거론

(Reuters) 로이터
Posted : 2024-08-01 06:37 Updated : 2024-08-01 06:37
Korea Times

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve Board Building, July 31, in Washington, D.C. AP-Yonhap 제롬 파월 연방준비제도이사회 의장이 7월 31일 워싱턴 D.C. 기자회견에서 연설하고 있다. AP-연합

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell said policymakers may be ready to reduce borrowing costs as soon as their next meeting in September, with recent data adding to their confidence that inflation is coming into line with their 2 percent target.
연방준비제도이사회는 수요일 금리를 안정적으로 유지했지만 제롬 파월 미 중앙은행 총재는 정책 입안자들이 9월 다음 회의가 열리자마자 차입 비용을 줄일 준비가 돼 있을 수 있다고 밝혔으며, 최근 데이터는 인플레이션이 목표치인 2%와 일치하고 있다는 자신감을 더하고 있다.

Powell's remarks at his press conference following the end of the Fed's latest two-day policy meeting appeared as an affirmation of a coming pivot in September that was partly reflected in the central bank's new policy statement.
파월 의장이 연준의 최근 이틀간의 정책회의 종료 후 기자회견에서 한 발언은 중앙은행의 새 정책 성명에 일부 반영된 9월에 다가올 피벗에 대한 확언으로 나타났다.

"There has been some further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective," the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in the statement after deciding to keep the central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25 percent-5.50 percent range.
정책결정기구인 연방공개시장위원회는 이날 성명에서 중앙은행의 기준금리를 5.25~5.50%대로 유지하기로 한 뒤 "위원회의 2% 목표를 향해 약간의 진전이 있었다"고 밝혔다.

Powell went further, telling reporters "there is a growing sense of confidence that you could move at the next meeting" as long as coming inflation data affirms its recent softening trend.
파월 의장은 여기서 한발 더 나아가 인플레이션 데이터가 최근 완화 추세를 확인하는 한 "다음 회의에서 움직일 수 있다는 자신감이 커지고 있다"고 기자들에게 말했다.


The central bank uses the personal consumption expenditures price index for its 2 percent annual inflation target. The PCE price index rose 2.5 percent in June after exceeding 7 percent in 2022, and the month-to-month readings recently have shown it even closer to target.
중앙은행은 연간 2%의 인플레이션 목표치로 개인소비지출 물가지수를 사용한다. PCE 물가지수는 2022년 7%를 넘어선 후 6월에 2.5% 상승했고, 최근 월별 수치는 이를 더욱더 목표치에 가깝게 보여주고 있다.

Investors saw Powell's comments as clearly setting the stage for a reduction in borrowing costs at the Fed's Sept. 17-18 meeting, just seven weeks shy of the Nov. 5 U.S. elections.
투자자들은 파월 의장의 발언이 11월 5일 미국 선거를 불과 7주 앞둔 9월 17~18일 연준 회의에서 차입 비용을 줄일 수 있는 발판을 확실히 마련한 것으로 봤다.

"Listening to him speak, it's clear they're all locked and loaded for September rate cut and they're going to maintain their optionality," said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at SiebertNXT.
시버트 NXT의 최고 투자 책임자인 마크 말렉은 "그가 말하는 것을 들어보면, 그들은 9월 금리 인하를 위해 모든 것이 잠겨 있고 그들은 선택권을 유지할 것이 분명하다"고 말했다.

Interest rate futures, stocks and Treasury bonds all rallied hard on Powell's remarks, so much so that the probability of a first cut in September being as large as half a percentage point jumped to about 15 percent, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Powell, however, said a 50-basis-point cut was not something under active consideration.
CME 그룹의 FedWatch 도구에 따르면 파월의 발언에 금리 선물, 주식 및 국채가 모두 강력하게 반등하여 9월 첫 번째 인하 가능성은 절반 정도인 약 15%로 뛰어올랐다. 그러나 파월은 50 베이시스 포인트 인하는 적극적으로 검토 중인 것이 아니라고 말했다.

A woman browses the meat aisle at a supermarket in Montebello, Calif., May 15. AFP-Yonhap 5월 15일 캘리포니아 몬테벨로의 한 슈퍼마켓에서 한 여성이 고기 통로를 훑어보고 있다. AFP-연합

Dual mandate
이중의무

While Fed officials are wary of any actions that could mar their data-not-politics approach to setting monetary policy, the steady drop in inflation in recent months prompted a broad consensus that the inflation battle was near an end.
연준 관리들은 통화정책을 설정하는 데 있어 정치가 아닌 데이터 접근법을 손상시킬 수 있는 어떤 행동도 경계하고 있지만, 최근 몇 달 동안 인플레이션이 꾸준히 하락하면서 인플레이션 싸움이 거의 끝나가고 있다는 광범위한 공감대가 형성되었다.

Inflation, the Fed said, was now just "somewhat elevated," a key downgrade from the assessment that it has used throughout much of its battle against rising prices that it was "elevated."
연준은 인플레이션이 이제 "다소 상승했다"는 평가에서 "상승했다"는 평가를 핵심적으로 하향 조정한 것이라고 말했다

"We have made no decisions on future meetings" when it comes to rate cuts and all policy decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, Powell said at his press conference. But he added that as Fed officials have been gaining confidence that price pressures are moderating, "the economy is moving closer to the point where it will be appropriate to reduce our policy rate."
파월 의장은 이날 기자회견에서 금리 인하와 관련해 "우리는 향후 회의에 대해 결정한 바가 없다며”며 모든 정책결정은 회의별로 이뤄질 것이라고 말했다. 다만 그는 연준 관리들이 물가 압력이 완화되고 있다는 자신감을 얻고 있어 "경제는 우리의 정책 금리를 인하하는 것이 적절할 지점에 가까워지고 있다."고 덧붙였다.

The Fed's policy statement also removed standing language that it was "highly attentive to inflation risks," and replaced it with an acknowledgement that policymakers were now "attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," which includes a charge from Congress to maintain maximum employment consistent with stable prices.
연준의 정책 성명은 또한 "인플레이션 위험에 매우 주의를 기울이고 있다"는 스탠딩 언어를 삭제하고 정책 입안자들이 이제 안정적인 물가와 일치하는 최대 고용을 유지하라는 의회의 요구를 포함하는 이중 권한의 양쪽 모두에 대한 위험에 주의를 기울이고 있다는 것을 인정하는 것으로 대체했다.

U.S. central bankers have said it would be appropriate to reduce borrowing costs before inflation actually returns to their target to account for the time it takes monetary policy to affect the economy.
미국 중앙은행 총재들은 통화정책이 경제에 영향을 미치는 데 걸리는 시간을 고려해 인플레이션이 실제로 목표치로 돌아오기 전에 차입비용을 줄이는 것이 적절할 것이라고 말했다.

So far the economy "has continued to expand at a solid pace," the Fed said in its statement, and while "job gains have moderated," the unemployment rate "remains low."
연준은 성명에서 지금까지 경제가 "견조한 속도로 계속 확장했다"며 "일자리 증가가 완화된 반면 실업률은 "낮은 수준"이라고 밝혔다.


But the jobless rate has been rising, and policymakers have put more focus of late on avoiding the sort of sharp rise in unemployment often associated with high interest rates and slowing inflation.
그러나 실업률은 증가하고 있고 정책 입안자들은 최근에 고금리와 인플레이션 둔화와 관련된 급격한 실업률 상승을 피하는 데 더 많은 초점을 맞추고 있다.

The Fed did not commit in its statement to a rate cut in September, and repeated that policymakers still need "greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent" before lowering borrowing costs.
연준은 9월 금리 인하 성명에서 "인플레이션이 2%로 지속 가능하게 이동하고 있다는 더 큰 자신감"이 여전히 필요하다고 거듭 강조한 뒤 차입 비용을 낮췄다.

But the changes seem consistent with that confidence being reached by September, something investors have been expecting. The Fed raised rates aggressively from March 2022 to July 2023, hiking the benchmark rate by 5.25 percentage points to combat the worst outbreak of inflation in 40 years.
그러나 변화는 투자자들이 기대해왔던 9월까지 그 신뢰에 도달하는 것과 일치하는 것으로 보인다. 연준은 2022년 3월부터 2023년 7월까지 금리를 공격적으로 인상하여 40년 만에 최악의 인플레이션 발생에 맞서기 위해 기준금리를 5.25% 포인트 인상했다.

The new policy statement was approved unanimously. (Reuters)
새 정책 성명은 만장일치로 승인되었다. (로이터)

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