KOSPI tumbles over 8% on US recession fears 코스피, 미국 경기침체 공포에 8% 넘게 폭락

[김우정]

어제 아시아증시가 폭락했습니다.
코스피 -8.8%, 코스닥 -11.3%, 일본 -12.4%, 대만 -8.4% 하락햇습니다.
미국경기침체, AI주식의 과대평가에 의한 미국주식시장하락이 주 요인입니다.
추가폭락에 대비해야 한다는 의견, 낙폭 우리경제보다 더 크다는 의견 등등 향후전망도 다양합니다.
 
KOSPI tumbles over 8% on US recession fears
코스피, 미국 경기침체 공포에 8% 넘게 폭락

By Lee Kyung-min 이경민 기자
Posted : 2024-08-05 17:17 Updated : 2024-08-06 00:50
Korea Times

An electronic trading board shows the KOSPI closing at 2,441.55 points, down 8.77 percent from the previous session, at a KB Kookmin Bank dealing room in Seoul, Monday. Yonhap 월요일 서울에 있는 KB국민은행 딜링룸의 한 전자거래 표지판에 코스피지수를 전장보다 8.77% 하락한 2,441.55포인트로 마감하고 있다. 연합

Japan's Nikkei sees largest drop, while experts advise wait-and-see stance citing overblown recession jitters
일본 닛케이는 가장 큰 폭으로 하락하고 있으며 전문가들은 경기침체에 대한 불안감이 부풀려졌다는 점을 들어 관망세

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) tumbled 8.77 percent from the previous session to close at 2,441.55 points, Monday, the steepest decline in closing price to date. The tech-heavy Kosdaq ended at 691.28 points, down 11.3 percent.
이날 코스피는 전장보다 8.77% 하락한 2,441.55로 마감해 종가 기준으로 가장 큰 폭으로 하락했다. 코스닥은 11.3% 하락한 691.28포인트로 마감했다.

Both the KOSPI and Kosdaq experienced a "circuit breaker," a government-mandated 20-minute halt in trading activated when the local index falls or rises by at least 8 percent from the previous session. The halt coincided with the KOSPI crashing to a midday low of 2,386.96 points. The near 11 percent drop was a further sharp fall from Friday's drop of 3.65 percent.
이날 코스피와 코스닥 모두 20분간 정부가 지정한 “서킷브레이커”가 발생해 지수가 전 거래보다 8% 이상 하락하거나 상승할 때 발동했다. 이날 서킷브레이커는 코스피가 한낮 최저치인 2,386.96포인트까지 떨어진 것과 겹쳤다. 11% 가까이 하락한 것은 전날(3.65%)보다 더 떨어진 것이다.

The circuit breaker was an escalation from a "side car," a less stringent trading curb of a five-minute trading suspension. It is triggered when the KOSPI 200 futures experience a loss or gain of at least 5 percent for one minute or longer, or when the Kosdaq index sees a fall or gain of at least 6 percent for one minute or longer.
서킷브레이커는 5분간의 매매거래 정지라는 덜 엄격한 규제인 사이드카에서 확대된 것이다. 코스피200 선물이 1분 이상 5% 이상의 손실 또는 상승을 경험하거나 코스닥지수가 1분 이상 6% 이상의 하락 또는 상승을 경험할 때 발동된다.

Large-cap Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares both saw intraday losses of over 10 percent, a significant drop from their respective previous highs of 88,800 won and 248,500 won in mid-July.
대형주인 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 주가는 모두 10% 이상의 장중 손실을 보였는데, 이는 7월 중순의 최고가인 88,800원과 248,500원보다 크게 하락한 것이다.

Propelling the plunge over the two sessions were fears of a U.S. recession, as highlighted and advanced by the "Sahm Rule" on the heels of July jobs data, Friday (local time).
금요일(현지시간) 7월 일자리 데이터에 이어 '삼 룰'이 강조하고 진전시킨 것처럼 두 세션 동안 급락을 부추긴 것은 미국 경기 침체에 대한 두려움이었다.

Developed by renowned economist Claudia Sahm, the rule posits that a significant and sustained increase in the unemployment rate is a reliable early indicator of economic downturns. She has since ruled out the possibility of a recession over the weekend, but market jitters persisted into the following sessions. Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei 225 index plummited to 31,458.42 points, the same day. The 12.4 percent intrday drop was the largest in its history.
저명한 경제학자 클라우디아 샘이 고안한 이 규칙은 실업률의 현저하고 지속적인 증가가 경기 침체의 믿을 만한 초기 지표라는 것을 전제로 한다. 그녀는 이후 주말 동안 경기 침체 가능성을 배제해 왔지만 시장의 불안은 그 다음 세션까지 계속되었다. 도쿄의 기준이 되는 닛케이 225 지수는 같은 날 31,458.42 포인트로 급락했다. 장중 12.4% 하락은 역사상 가장 큰 폭이었다.


Also contributing to the downturn was the overvaluation of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks on a multi-month bullish streak, as evidenced by the so-called Magnificent 7 — Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla — registering a combined loss of $2.6 trillion in market capitalization over the past three weeks. These mega-cap shares experienced individual market cap losses ranging from 9 percent to 23 percent.
또한 지난 3주 동안 시가총액 2조 6천억 달러의 손실을 기록한 이른바 매그니피센트 7(마이크로소프트, 애플, 알파벳, 아마존, 엔비디아, 메타, 테슬라)에서 입증된 바와 같이 인공지능(AI) 주식의 과대평가도 경기 침체에 한몫했다. 이들 대형주들은 9%에서 23%에 이르는 개별 시가총액 손실을 경험했다.

Further drop contained?
추가로 하락할까?

“Any steep further plunge comparable to today’s developments will be limited,” said Eric Lee, a researcher at Daishin Securities.
에릭 리 대신증권 연구위원은 "오늘의 상황에 버금가는 가파른 추가 급락은 제한적일 것,"이라고 말했다.

The index, however, will continue a moderate- to significant fluctuation throughout the week into the next, gripped by fear.
그러나 이 지수는 공포에 사로잡힌 채 이번 주 내내 중간에서 상당한 등락을 계속할 것이다.

“The investor sentiment will be dominated by a heightened sense of fear and uncertainty, leading to extended unwarranted volatility. It will take some time before the investor confidence is regained.”
"투자 심리는 공포감과 불확실성의 고조로 지배되어 부당한 변동성이 확대될 것입니다. 투자자 신뢰가 회복되기까지는 시간이 걸릴 것입니다."

Joining the rush of selloff at diving prices is not recommended, albeit understandable, he added.
그는 이해할 수는 있지만 급매물 가격으로 매도에 동참하는 것은 권장되지 않는다고 덧붙였다.

“It is hard to be patient when a significant portion of your cash is evaporating in a matter of minutes or seconds,” he said. “The fear is about losing the entire investment. It is up to individual investors, but letting an acute sense of panic drive the decision may not always guarantee a desired return.”
그는 "현금의 상당 부분이 단 몇 분, 몇 초 만에 증발하는 상황에서 인내심을 갖기 어렵다며 두려움은 전체 투자를 잃는 것,"이라며 "개인 투자자들의 몫이지만, 극심한 공황상태가 결정을 주도하도록 놔두는 것이 항상 원하는 수익률을 보장하지는 않을 수 있다."고 말했다.

Kiwoom Securities analyst Kim Yu-mi said the U.S. labor market weakening is not an imminent fear factor, as mitigated by other market indices and market supply and demand conditions factoring in immigration populations.
김유미 키움증권 애널리스트는 미국의 노동시장 약화가 이민인구를 고려한 다른 시장지수와 시장 수급 상황에 의해 완화된 것처럼 당장의 공포 요인은 아니라고 말했다.


“The U.S. nonfarm payrolls and jobless rate hitting a 34-month high of 4.3 percent definitely undershoot market expectations, but to identify a direct causal link between the weak market print and a full-fledged recession is a somewhat overblown,” she said.
그는 "미국의 비농업부문 고용률과 실업률이 34개월 만에 최고치인 4.3%를 기록한 것은 시장의 예상을 분명히 밑도는 것이지만 시장의 약세와 본격적인 경기침체 사이의 직접적인 인과관계를 규명하는 것은 다소 과장된 것"이라고 말했다.

The much-debated "Sahm Rule" in that sense was an indicator that can point only to an onset of a recession, in her view, not a conclusive overwhelming sign of a full-blown recession.
그런 의미에서 많이 논의된 "삼 룰"은 그녀가 보기에 경기 침체의 시작을 가리킬 수 있는 지표이지, 전면적인 경기 침체의 결정적인 압도적인 징후는 아니었다.

The rule says “The economy has tipped into a recession if the jobless rate based on a three-month average is a half percentage point above its lowest point over the previous 12 months.”
이 규칙은 "3개월 평균 실업률이 지난 12개월 동안 최저점보다 0.5%포인트 높으면 경기가 침체로 기울었다."고 말한다.

Friday's jobs report technically fits into the broader premises of the rule, in her view, but falls short of other qualifiers to be fully applicable. The U.S. household income, consumer spending and business investment are robust.
그녀가 보기에 금요일 일자리 보고서는 기술적으로는 이 규칙의 광범위한 전제에는 들어맞지만 완전히 적용할 수 있는 다른 자격요건에는 미치지 못한다. 미국의 가계 소득과 소비 지출 및 기업 투자는 견조하다.

The Korean equity market will have to brace for additional tumbles, and short-term gains from selloff amid constrained sentiment is therefore diminished, she added.
한국 주식시장은 추가적인 폭락에 대비해야 할 것이고, 따라서 심리적 제약 속에서 매도에 따른 단기적인 이익은 줄어들 것이라고 그녀는 덧붙였다.

“Increase in holdings in selective shares to benefit from global monetary easing will be a better choice.”
"글로벌 금융완화 혜택 받기 위해 선별주 보유 확대가 더 나은 선택이 될 것이다."

Stepped up monitoring 
모니터링 강화

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok called for a team of finance ministry and Bank of Korea officials to fortify monitoring of financial market developments, as part of a contingency plan.
최상목 부총리 겸 기획재정부 장관은 비상대책의 일환으로 금융시장 상황에 대한 감시를 강화하기 위해 재경부와 한국은행 관계자들로 구성된 팀을 구성할 것을 요청했다.

“The extended volatility in the market has been amplified due to fears of a U.S. recession and the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Agencies and authorities should maintain close coordination in an around-the-clock monitoring for swift response measures.”
“미국의 경기침체 우려와 중동의 지정학적 고조로 시장의 변동성이 확대됐다며 신속한 대응조치를 위해 기관과 당국은 24시간 모니터링을 통해 긴밀한 공조를 유지해야 한다고 강조했다.”

The Korean currency traded at 1,374.8 won against the U.S. dollar as of 3:30 p.m., down 3.6 won from the previous session.
이날 오후 3시30분 현재 달러화에 대한 원화 환율은 전장보다 3.6원 내린 1,374.8원에 거래됐다.

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