WEO 2024 JUL

[김씨]

World Economic Outlook, April 2024: Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence (imf.org)

World Economic Outlook, April 2024: Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence

요약

The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot

Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. However, varied momentum in activity at the turn of the year has somewhat narrowed the output divergence across economies as cyclical factors wane and activity becomes better aligned with its potential. Services price inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization. Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher-for-even-longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty. To manage these risks and preserve growth, the policy mix should be sequenced carefully to achieve price stability and replenish diminished buffers.

고착지점의 세계경제

2024.04월 3.2% 그리고 2025 3.3%성장예상 그럼에도 무역긴장, 정치불안을 이유로 물가지속에 따른 통화정책 정상화가 어려움.

Global activity and world trade firmed up at the turn of the year, with trade spurred by strong exports from Asia, particularly in the technology sector. Relative to the April 2024 WEO, first quarter growth surprised on the upside in many countries, although downside surprises in Japan and the United States were notable. In the United States, after a sustained period of strong outperformance, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in growth reflected moderating consumption and a negative contribution from net trade. In Japan, the negative growth surprise stemmed from temporary supply disruptions linked to the shutdown of a major automobile plant in the first quarter. In contrast, shoots of economic recovery materialized in Europe, led by an improvement in services activity. In China, resurgent domestic consumption propelled the positive upside in the first quarter, aided by what looked to be a temporary surge in exports belatedly reconnecting with last year’s rise in global demand. These developments have narrowed the output divergences somewhat across economies, as cyclical factors wane and activity becomes better aligned with its potential.

올해 전환기 아시아 수출증가, 미국 일본의 둔화, 유럽 서비스에 따른 회복노력, 중국 수출에 따른 일시적 소비 반등 등이 세계경제 생산량의 격차를 좀 줄여옴.

Meanwhile, the momentum on global disinflation is slowing, signaling bumps along the path. This reflects different sectoral dynamics: the persistence of higher-than-average inflation in services prices, tempered to some extent by stronger disinflation in the prices of goods (Figure 1). Nominal wage growth remains brisk, above price inflation in some countries, partly reflecting the outcome of wage negotiations earlier this year and short-term inflation expectations that remain above target. The uptick in sequential inflation in the United States during the first quarter has delayed policy normalization. This has put other advanced economies, such as the euro area and Canada, where underlying inflation is cooling more in line with expectations, ahead of the United States in the easing cycle. At the same time, a number of central banks in emerging market economies remain cautious in regard to cutting rates owing to external risks triggered by changes in interest rate differentials and associated depreciation of those economies’ currencies against the dollar.

세계경제 인플레이션 완화가 늦춰지고 있는 신호에 있다. 상품가격에 비해 서비스 가격은 아직도 높은 인플레이션 유지(상품가격과 서비스가격의 방향에 따른 변동 시간차이가 있음) 명목임금상승 증가, 미국 금리인하 주저 따라서 유럽과 케나다 미국 눈치, 이머징 마켓 통화가치 하락위험으로 미국 눈치.

Global financial conditions remain accommodative. Although longer-term yields have generally drifted upward, in tandem with the repricing of policy paths, buoyant corporate valuations have kept financial conditions accommodative, broadly at the level of the April WEO (see Box 1). The increase in yields is likely to put pressure on fiscal discipline, however, which in some countries is already strained by the inability to rein in spending or raise taxes.

세계금융이 순조롭다고 함. 하지만 장기 수익률이 높아져 미국을 제외 타국가는 세금인상 또는 지출을 줄여 대응.

A Waxing and Waning Outlook

성장 저해 전망.

IMF staff projections are based on upward revisions to commodity prices, including a rise in nonfuel prices by 5 percent in 2024. Energy commodity prices are expected to fall by about 4.6 percent in 2024, less than projected in the April WEO, reflecting elevated oil prices from deep cuts by OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Russia and other non-OPEC oil exporters) and reduced, but still present, price pressure from the Middle East conflict. Monetary policy rates of major central banks are still expected to decline in the second half of 2024, with divergence in the pace of normalization reflecting varied inflation circumstances.

IMF 직원은 여러가지 상황 고려 상품가격이 4.6% 떨어질 것이라 예상. 하지만 주요 중앙은행 금리정책은 2024년 하반기 금리 인하 예상. 하지만 다양한 중동의 다양한 변수 지속.

Growth is expected to remain stable. At 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025, the forecast for global economic growth is broadly unchanged from that in April (Table 1). Under the hood, however, offsetting growth revisions have shifted the composition.

세계성장 예상은 지속. 하지만 성장을 상쇄하는 구성은 수정됨.(한마디로 부정적 요인 등장으로 지속 전망 수정예상)

Among advanced economies, growth is expected to converge over the coming quarters (Figure 2). In the United States, projected growth is revised downward to 2.6 percent in 2024 (0.1 percentage point lower than projected in April), reflecting the slower-than-expected start to the year. Growth is expected to slow to 1.9 percent in 2025 as the labor market cools and consumption moderates, with fiscal policy starting to tighten gradually. By the end of 2025, growth is projected to taper to potential, closing the positive output gap.

미국의 성장률 예상치보다 감소(노동시장과 소비 둔화)

In the euro area, activity appears to have bottomed out. In line with the April 2024 projection, a modest pickup of 0.9 percent is expected for 2024 (an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point), driven by stronger momentum in services and higher-than-expected net exports in the first half of the year; growth is projected to rise to 1.5 percent in 2025. This is underpinned by stronger consumption on the back of rising real wages, as well as higher investment from easing financing conditions amid gradual monetary policy loosening this year. Continued weaknesses in manufacturing suggest a more sluggish recovery in countries such as Germany.

유럽은 수출과 서비스증가로 바닥을 찍음. 실질임금 상승, 부진한 제조업을 살리기 위한 통화정책 완화에 따른 투자증가가 뒷받침함.

In Japan, the strong shunto wage settlement is expected to support a turnaround in private consumption starting in the second half. But the expectation for 2024 growth is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point, with the downward adjustment largely reflecting temporary supply disruptions and weak private investment in the first quarter.

일본, shunto가 기업들에 임금상승 압박, 하반기 개인소비 증가의 시발점 예상. 그럼에도 2024년 예상성장률에서 0.2% 하방.

The forecast for growth in emerging market and developing economies is revised upward; the projected increase is powered by stronger activity in Asia, particularly China and India. For China, the growth forecast is revised upward to 5 percent in 2024, primarily on account of a rebound in private consumption and strong exports in the first quarter. In 2025, GDP is projected to slow to 4.5 percent, and to continue to decelerate over the medium term to 3.3 percent by 2029, because of headwinds from aging and slowing productivity growth. The forecast for growth in India has also been revised upward, to 7.0 percent, this year, with the change reflecting carryover from upward revisions to growth in 2023 and improved prospects for private consumption, particularly in rural areas.

이머징과 개발도상국?(아직도 이런말을 쓰는 놈들이 imf라니..ㅌㅌ) 상승세. 중국 수출증가 개인소비지출 2024년 5%상향, 2025년 4.5% 예상, 2029년 3.3%감소 이유인즉 인구노령화 생산성하락.

인도 2024년 7%

With regard to Latin America and the Caribbean, growth has been revised downward for 2024 in Brazil, reflecting the near-term impact of flooding, and in Mexico, due to moderation in demand. However, growth has been revised upwards in 2025 for Brazil to reflect reconstruction following the floods and supportive structural factors (for example, acceleration in hydrocarbon production). For the Middle East and Central Asia, oil production and regional conflicts continue to weigh on prospects. The growth forecast for 2024 in Saudi Arabia has been revised downward by 0.9 percentage point; the adjustment reflects mainly the extension of oil production cuts. Projected growth in Sudan is revised markedly downward, as persisting conflict takes a larger toll on the economy. The forecast for growth in sub-Saharan Africa is revised downward, mainly as a result of a 0.2 percentage point downward revision to the growth outlook in Nigeria amid weaker than expected activity in the first quarter of this year.

라틴아메리카 캐리비언 홍수피해로 인한 성장세 둔화. 멕시코 수요부족. 브라질 2025년은 탄화수소 제품 등 구조적 요인들에 따라 상승. 중동.중앙아시아는 오일제품과 지역마찰로 전망 불투명

사우디 2024년 0.9%로 하향수정 수단 역시 지역갈등으로 하방 수정. 사하라 이남 아프리카 및 나이지리아 경제활동 부진으로 하방 수정.

Trade makes a recovery. World trade growth is expected to recover to about 3¼ percent annually in 2024–25 (from quasi stagnation in 2023) and align with global GDP growth again. The uptick in the first quarter of this year is expected to moderate as manufacturing remains subdued. Although cross[1]border trade restrictions have surged, harming trade between geopolitically distant blocs, the global trade-to-GDP ratio is expected to remain stable in the projection.

세계 무역은 향후 지속 성장세 기대. 제조업 부진 국경무역 제한 지정학적 경제블럭 에도 불구 무역 gdp성장은 안정적이라 예상.

Global inflation will continue to decline. In advanced economies, the revised forecast is for the pace of disinflation to slow in 2024 and 2025. That is because inflation in prices for services is now expected to be more persistent and commodity prices higher. However, the gradual cooling of labor markets, together with an expected decline in energy prices, should bring headline inflation back to target by the end of 2025. Inflation is expected to remain higher in emerging market and developing economies (and to drop more slowly) than in advanced economies. However, partly thanks to falling energy prices, inflation is already close to prepandemic levels for the median emerging market and developing economy.

세계 인플레이션은 지속 낮아질 것이라 함. 하지만 선진국들이 통화 긴축정책을 2024년과 2025년에는 늦춰서 다시 상품과 서비스가격이 올라갈 것이다. 하지만 노동시장의 냉각 에너지가격 하락으로 2025년 목표수준 회복예상. 이머징과 개발도상국은 여전히 높게 유지 그리고 천천히 하락. 팬데믹 이전수준에 가까워짐?(여전히 높음)

Not Yet in the Clear

아직 확실하지 않다.

Overall, risks to the outlook remain balanced, as in the April 2024 WEO, but some near-term risks have gained prominence. These include upside risks to inflation that stem from a lack of progress on services disinflation and price pressures emanating from renewed trade or geopolitical tensions. Risks of persistent inflation in the services sector are tied to both wage and price setting, given that labor accounts for a high share of the costs in that sector. Higher nominal wage growth, which in some cases reflects the catch-up of real wages, if accompanied by weak productivity, could make it difficult for firms to moderate price increases, especially when profit margins are already squeezed. This could lead to further stickiness in wage and price inflation. The escalation of trade tensions could further raise near-term risks to inflation by increasing the cost of imported goods along the supply chain. Bumpiness along the remaining disinflation path could destabilize the return to price stability if short[1]term expectations spike upward as a result of disappointing inflation data.

위험은 아직 상존한다. 지정학정 긴장, 재편된 무역, 명목임금이 실질임금을 따라가게 되며 생산성 하락 기업 마진 등.

The risk of elevated inflation has raised the prospects of higher-for-even-longer interest rates, which in turn increases external, fiscal, and financial risks. Prolonged dollar appreciation arising from rate disparities could disrupt capital flows and impede planned monetary policy easing, which could adversely impact growth. Persistently high interest rates could raise borrowing costs further and affect financial stability if fiscal improvements do not offset higher real rates amid lower potential growth (see IMF Blog).

지속적 인플레이션은 장기 이자율에도 영향을 미친다. 이는 곧 외부, 재정, 금융 리스크로 연결

금리차이로 인한 달러 절상은 자금흐름 통화정책 완화 지연으로 성장률 저해

(금융위기 미국이 망하지 않기 위해 금융완화로 인한 피해가 전세계 인플레이션으로 연결 이를 감추기 위한 전쟁과 분열정책이 곧 다시 미국으로 회귀라고 생각됨.)

The potential for significant swings in economic policy as a result of elections this year, with negative spillovers to the rest of the world, has increased the uncertainty around the baseline. These potential shifts entail fiscal profligacy risks that will worsen debt dynamics, adversely affecting long-term yields and ratcheting up protectionism. Trade tariffs, alongside a scaling up of industrial policies worldwide, can generate damaging cross‐border spillovers, as well as trigger retaliation, resulting in a costly race to the bottom. By contrast, policies that promote multilateralism and a faster implementation of macrostructural reforms could boost supply gains, productivity, and growth, with positive spillovers worldwide.

미국의 선거결과로 불확실성이 커진다? ( 매우 영향 없음)

불확실성이 가져오는 영향, 빛의 다이나믹(파산), 장기수익률, 보호주의 강화, 무역관세, 관세보복

Multilateralism(다자주의), macrostructural reforms(거시구조 개혁)은 세계를 구할 수 있다(모두 미국이 반대하고 있음)

Future-Proofing the Economy

As output gaps start to close and inflation recedes, policymakers face two tasks: persevering with restoring price stability and addressing the legacies of recent crises, including replenishing lost buffers and durably uplifting growth. In the near term, this will require careful calibration and sequencing of the policy mix. In countries where upside risks to inflation—including those arising through external channels—have materialized, central banks should refrain from easing too early and remain open to further tightening should it become necessary. Where inflation data encouragingly signal a durable return to price stability, monetary policy easing should proceed gradually, which would simultaneously provide room for the required fiscal consolidation to take place. Fiscal slippages over the past year in some countries could require a stance significantly tighter than envisaged. As the space for fiscal maneuver narrows, commitments to achieving fiscal consolidation targets should be earnestly adhered to, aided by sound fiscal frameworks and resource mobilization (see Chapter 1 of the April 2024 Fiscal Monitor).

미래를 보장하는 경제

물가안정 회복, 고착화 되는 위기해결, 중앙은행 이른 통화정책 완화 자제, 필요하면 긴축정책 필요.

통화정책 완화 시 꼭 재정 건전성 확보(세수확보 가능여부)

In emerging market and developing economies, recent policy divergences highlight the need to manage the risks of currency and capital flow volatility. Given that economic fundamentals remain the main factor in dollar appreciation, the appropriate response is to allow the exchange rate to adjust, while using monetary policy to keep inflation close to target. Foreign reserves should be used prudently and preserved to deal with potentially worse outflows in the future, in line with the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework. To the extent possible, macroprudential policies should mitigate vulnerabilities from large exposures to foreign-currency-denominated debt.

이머징 마켓과 개발도상국은 꼭 달러 휘발성 대비, 외환 보유고 채크, 신중사용 권고

Near-term challenges aside, policymakers must act now to revitalize declining medium-term growth prospects. Striking differences in productivity trends across countries since the pandemic suggest that not all factors are cyclical and that decisive policy action is needed to enhance business dynamism and reduce resource misallocation to arrest weaknesses (see Chapter 3 of the April 2024 WEO). Further boosting labor supply, especially by better integrating women and immigrants—key segments contributing to economic resilience in advanced economies—will mitigate demographic pressures, adding to potential growth gains. While emigration of the young and educated population can take a toll on source countries, the costs can be mitigated. Policies that help leverage diaspora networks, maximize the benefits from remittances, and expand domestic labor market opportunities are possible avenues (see Chapter 4 of the October 2016 WEO).

단기 정책과 별개로 정책입안자들은 중기 성장을 살리기 위해 지금 당장 움직여야 합니다.

경제활동 강화와 적절한 자원 배분, 여성과 이민자 통합(줄어드는 노동인구 실질적 대처방안)

Finally, the misuse of inward and domestically oriented policies compromises the ability to tackle global challenges—such as climate change—in regard to which multilateral cooperation and trade are vital. These policies are also often inadequate to address domestic issues, as they increase fiscal pressures and risk further distortions such as resource misallocation. All countries should thus scale back on use of trade-distorting measures and strive instead to strengthen the multilateral trading system.

미국 자국우선주의는 결국 세계의 경제를 파괴하는 행위이다. 다자간 무역 시스템 활성과 강화만이 살길이다.

Box 1. GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY UPDATE

Persistently elevated uncertainty around the inflation outlook has led central banks in major advanced economies to become somewhat more cautious about the pace of policy easing, compared with their positions at the end of the first quarter. Consequently, markets’ expectations of the number of policy rate cuts to be delivered in 2024 have been revised downward (Figure 1.1).1 Longer-term yields have generally moved in tandem with repricing of policy paths. In the US, however, medium- to long[1]term yields have remained unchanged, on net, since April. Over this period, these yields have seen transitory bouts of upward pressure exerted via moves in real rates, a consequence of, in part, fluctuations in demand for Treasuries, given structural shifts in the Treasuries market’s investor base (see the April 2024 Global Financial Stability Report). That said, uncertainty around the path of long-term US real rates—measured by the level of the real risk premium2— remains elevated compared with the historical average. Developments in interest rates have also led to gyrations of the exchange rate for the US dollar against major advanced economy currencies since April. The Japanese yen has seen sustained depreciation pressures against the dollar over this period, characterized by excessive moves in the currency and subsequent market interventions by the authorities.

Emerging market economies have been resilient overall, although the performance of emerging market currencies has varied some. Broadly speaking, emerging market currencies have been subject to depreciation pressures.3 Furthermore, emerging markets have experienced net capital outflows4 since April, while showing some sensitivity to changes in expectations for the US policy path. Even as international sovereign bond issuance has slowed, a few frontier markets have been prefinancing redemptions due in the next quarter despite elevated financing costs to mitigate the much-anticipated refinancing risk.

Risk assets have appreciated from elevated levels of the first quarter, driven in part by resilient corporates. Solid corporate profits have driven valuations in US and euro area equities higher, as companies in most sectors have posted upside earnings surprises. Equity valuations in major emerging markets have been mixed, while corporate spreads continue to remain tight across most regions.

Overall, buoyant corporate valuations have kept financial conditions accommodative (Figure 1.2). However, a slower pace of policy easing in the US and other advanced economies, amid continued uncertainty around the global economic outlook, could exacerbate financial market volatility and challenge these valuations. In addition, emerging market currencies may come under further pressure with narrowing of interest rate differentials against the US.