러시아, 북한에 Su-27, MiG-29 제공 합의

[위종민]

사무엘 파파로 미군 인도태평양사령부 사령관이 12월 7일 레이건 국방포럼에서, 러시아가 북한의 군사적 지원에 대한 대가로 Su-27, MiG-29 등의 초기형 4세대 전투기를 제공하기로 합의했다고 밝혔습니다. 다만 명확한 수량은 밝히지 않았네요. 

만약 MiG-17이나 19는 물론, 수적 주력인 MiG-21까지 대체할 수 있을 정도의 수량이 제공된다면 한국 공군의 F-5E는 더 이상 성능적으로 대등하거나 우위에 있는 적기가 없어지겠네요. 

Russia in talks to send fighter jets to North Korea, INDOPACOM says - Defense One

Russia in talks to send fighter jets to North Korea, INDOPACOM says

Russian Air Force MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter jets perform at an air show outside Moscow on July 20, 2021. DIMITAR DILKOFF/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

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Threats

Russia in talks to send fighter jets to North Korea, INDOPACOM says

U.S. should continue to build deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region, Paparo says.

By Patrick Tucker

Science & Technology Editor, Defense One

December 7, 2024

•  

SIMI VALLEY, California—Russia may send North Korea “formidable, but…early fourth-generation” fighter jets, the leader of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said Saturday.

“We've seen some agreement” between Moscow and Pyongyang on the transfer of Russian MiG-29s and Su-27s, Adm. Samuel Paparo said at the Reagan National Defense Forum here. He did not say how many jets might be transferred.

The move follows Pyongyang’s dispatch of what Paparo said were 12,000 North Korean troops to Russia to fight Ukrainian forces. 

Paparo spoke at a time of crisis for South Korea, where President Yoon Suk Yeol  survived an impeachment vote for his brief declaration of martial law this week, which some are calling a failed coup. 

“The National Assembly has drawn up articles of impeachment, which require a two-thirds majority in order to pass. That remains to be seen,” the U.S. commander said. 

Yoon issued an apology on Saturday, four days after rescinding his martial-law declaration and two after firing his defense minister Kim Yong Hyun. 

Paparo said there was little chance that the drama would affect regional security. 

“There is a little bit of political uncertainty in Korea. I'm convinced that, from a security standpoint, there is stability,” he said.

The discussion turned to whether the incoming Trump administration would come to the self-governing island’s defense if China invades. Donald Trump dodged the question on the campaign trail, but said in July: “Taiwan should pay us for defense...You know, we’re no different than an insurance company.”

Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif., who leads the defense panel of the House Appropriations Committee, said he didn’t want to speculate how the next administration would approach Taiwan policy, but judged it unlikely that U.S. policy would shift dramatically. 

Paparo, asked about the possibility of a shift, replied that open-source information indicates that a conflict in the Western Pacific would be devastating for the U.S. economy, and therefore the United States should strengthen its deterrence in the region.

Calvert said this was one reason why Congress must focus on INDOPACOM’s $11 billion unfunded priorities list and pass military budgets on time.

But the question remains open how best to deter China from invading Taiwan, which officials have said is possible before 2027. Paparo declined to endorse a proposal to put Marines or other U.S. forces on Taiwan, a policy shift he said would be "provocative." 

“The real key to success is for the enablement of Taiwan to be more effective,” he said.

Russia, North Korea Agree To Su-27, MiG-29 Transfer | Aviation Week Network

Russia, North Korea Agree To Su-27, MiG-29 Transfer | Aviation Week Network

Russia, North Korea Agree To Su-27, MiG-29 TransferBrian Everstine December 08, 2024

Credit: Piotr Butowski

SIMI VALLEY, California—The top U.S. officer in the Pacific says Russia has reached an agreement with North Korea to send MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter aircraft to Pyongyang in return for that nation deploying soldiers to help with Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said Dec. 7 that North Korea provided the soldiers to Russia without prompting—the deployment was offered and accepted. The soldiers are not in active combat but have deployed to combat zones, Paparo said.

In addition to the aircraft, North Korea likely wants other capabilities in return. These could include ballistic missile technologies, especially re-entry vehicles, as well as new submarine technologies and air defenses.

While the aging MiG-29s and Su-27s are not new fifth-generation fighters, they are still “formidable,” Paparo said here at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California.

Brian Everstine

Brian Everstine is the Pentagon Editor for Aviation Week, based in Washington, D.C. Before joining Aviation Week in August 2021, he covered the Pentagon for Air Force Magazine. Brian began covering defense aviation in 2011 as a reporter for Military Times.

[Minowski(김유철)]

우크라전도 아직 정리안됐는데 북한, 이란 수출물량은 언제쯤 공급할 생각으로 공수표를 남발하는 걸까요?

[위종민]

구형 Su-27, MiG-29는 전장에 투입하지 못하고 있으니, (혹시나 있다면) 잉여물량을 보낸다면 빠르게 공급할 수 있지 않을까 싶습니다.

[백선호]

R-77을 쏠 수 있냐, R-27만 쏠 수 있냐에 따라 위협의 정도가 다르겠습니다.

[강준구]

덧붙여, 몇 발이나 공급되느냐도 이슈가 될 것 같습니다. 러시아도 미사일이 모자를텐데 말이죠

[위종민]

저렇게 공군 보유기를 현대화한 뒤, S-300이나 S-400같은 게 넘어간다면 한국공군 입장에선 많이 골치아플 것 같습니다.

[정명기]

Su-27, Mig-29 vs F/A-50의 경우엔 어느 쪽이 우위일까요? 어쩌면 파오공의 암람 인티가 더 빨라질 수도 있겠네요.

[위종민]

MiG-29를 근대화 개량했지만 결국 기골이랑 주요부품은 그대로라 수명은 몇 년 늘지 않았고 방치중인 MiG-29SMT를 줄 수도 있다는 뉴스가 있네요. 40대~42대 가량 개조됐었다고 합니다. ( https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/12/11/over-half-of-russias-mig-29smt-fleet-left-to-rust-at-kursk/ )

"In hindsight, the MiG-29SMT modernization effort appears more like a stopgap measure than a long-term solution. While it might have extended the life of the MiG-29 platform for a few more years, it failed to deliver a truly next-generation fighter capable of competing with newer platforms."

[위종민]

"Recently, reports of Russian arms deliveries to North Korea have reignited interest in the MiG-29SMT fleet, particularly regarding whether any of these aging fighters might be among the aircraft being transferred. While there is no definitive evidence to confirm that the MiG-29SMT is part of this transfer, the ongoing secrecy surrounding Russian-North Korean military exchanges makes this a possibility worth exploring."