미국은 ISIS가 시리아를 장악하는 것을 원치 않는다

[위종민]

바샤르 알-아사드 시리아 정부가 급격히 무너진 가운데, 미국은 ISIS가 무너진 시리아를 장악하는 것을 막기를 원하며, 이를 위해 Syrian Democratic Force 및 쿠르드족 반군과 협조하고 있다고 제이크 설리번 국가안보보좌관이 레이건 국방포럼에서 밝혔습니다. 

바샤르 알-아사드 시리아 대통령은 모스크바로 도주한 것 같다고 기사에 나오네요. 

12월 8일엔 B-52와 F-15, A-10을 동원해 시리아 중부지역의 IS에 대한 공습도 실시했다고 합니다. 75개의 표적에 탄약 140발을 투하했네요.  

U.S. Wants to Keep ISIS From Taking Over Syria, Says Sullivan - USNI News

U.S. Wants to Keep ISIS From Taking Over Syria, Says Sullivan

John Grady

December 8, 2024 5:50 PM - Updated: December 8, 2024 10:42 PM

US Army Soldiers conduct movements during a training mission in support of Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve, near Al-Tanf Garrison, Syria, Oct. 31, 2024. US Army Photo

The United States’ top priority following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime is to ensure ISIS does not receive “new oxygen” and take control of Syria, said outgoing national security advisor Jake Sullivan said on Saturday.

Speaking at the Reagan National Security Forum in Simi, Calif., he added, “we are going to take steps ourselves, directly and working with the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurds, to ensure that does not happen.”

The forum’s day of discussions and interviews took place as the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, backed by Iran, Hezbollah and Russia was collapsing. Al-Assad fled the capital Damascus, on Sunday and was reportedly in Moscow.

What this immediately meant for the Middle East, from Turkey to the Gulf States and Russia to the United States is unclear. About 800 American servicemembers are in Syria assisting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Russia maintains several airfields near the Syrian Mediterranean coast and a large naval installation at Taurus.

Speaking from the White House, President Joe Biden said he intended for those troops to remain, adding that U.S. forces on Sunday conducted “dozens” of what he called “precision air strikes” on Islamic State camps and operations in Syria.

“We’re clear-eyed about the fact that ISIS will try and take advantage of any vacuum to reestablish its credibility, and create a safe haven,” Biden said.
“We will not let that happen.”

In his discussion at the forum, Sullivan said the administration is working to ensure allies Israel, Jordan, Iraq and others, “who would potentially face spillover effects from Syria, are strong and secure, and we’re in touch with them every day.”

The United States is also alert to stopping a “humanitarian catastrophe, both in terms of civilians, access to life-saving necessities, and in terms of the protection of religious and ethnic minorities in Syria,” he added.

The unexpected toppling of al Assad began less than two weeks ago. The main rebel group behind Assad’s ouster is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, whose name means Organization for the Liberation of the Levant.

While Biden said actions by the United States and allies weakened Iran, Russia and Hezbollah, all supporters of al-Assad, an NSC statement Sunday said, “the United States has nothing to do with this offensive, which is led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organization.”

Robert Wilkie, a former Pentagon personnel chief and leading the Trump transition defense team, said at the Reagan forum overthrow of al-Assad marks the “apogee of Iran’s power” in the Middle East.

With its past links to al Qaeda and ISIS, the group is still considered a terrorist organization by many other western governments. The leader of the successful offensive is Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.

The Syrian civil war began in 2011 “and escalated into a bloody, multifaceted conflict involving domestic opposition groups, extremist factions and international powers, including the United States, Iran and Russia. More than 500,000 Syrians have died, and millions more have fled their homes, The New York Times reported.

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https://www.airandspaceforces.com/us-b-52-f-15-a-10-massive-airstrikes-isis-syria

A U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress conducts a combat air patrol in support of Operation Inherent Resolve over the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility Nov. 23, 2024. U.S. Air Force photo

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B-52s, F-15s, and A-10s Conduct Massive Anti-ISIS Airstrikes in Syria After Fall of Assad

Dec. 8, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

The U.S. military conducted a punishing series of airstrikes against the Islamic State group on Dec. 8, following the sudden demise of the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad.

U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress bombers, F-15E Strike Eagles, and A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft conducted dozens of airstrikes against Islamic State leaders, fighters, and camps in central Syria, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced. The aircraft dropped about 140 munitions on more than 75 targets belonging to the militant group, a senior administration official told reporters.

The strikes came as the U.S. is trying to prevent ISIS militants from exploiting the chaotic situation in Syria after Assad fled the country and rebels led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham took over Damascus 13 years into the Syrian civil war.

“At the president’s authorization, we targeted a significant gathering of ISIS fighters and leaders,” the official said.

The Pentagon said the attacks were precision airstrikes and it does not believe there were any civilian casualties. The U.S. military is still conducting a battle damage assessment, according to U.S. Central Command.

A U.S.-led coalition and their local allies dismantled the Islamic State’s self-declared caliphate in Iraq and Syria in 2019 as part of the ongoing Operation Inherent Resolve. But the U.S. still has about 900 troops in eastern Syria who have been working with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces that are battling the remnants of the Islamic State as it has sought to make a comeback.

“CENTCOM, together with allies and partners in the region, will continue to carry out operations to degrade ISIS operational capabilities even during this dynamic period in Syria,” the command stated.

CENTCOM commander Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla issued a pointed warning to Syrian groups that they should avoid helping ISIS as the country struggles to form a new government after Assad’s departure. 

“There should be no doubt—we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” Kurilla said in a statement. “All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way.”

Two U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles conduct a combat air patrol in support of Operation Inherent Resolve over the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility Nov. 23, 2024. U.S. Air Force photo

The fall of the Assad regime less than two weeks after the start of a rebel offensive came as a shock to American and many Middle Eastern officials. It followed the battering that Lebanese militia Hezbollah, an Assad ally, took at the hands of the Israeli military. 

Assad’s support from the Russian air force also waned as Moscow became increasingly preoccupied with its invasion of Ukraine. Iran, another backer of Assad, was also weakened by Israeli airstrikes in Syria and inside Iran.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, has been designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. But it broke with Al Qaeda in 2016 and has targeted ISIS elements in the territory it has controlled, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Today, the group casts itself as a nationalist organization that was committed to unseating Assad and building a new Syria. 

With the collapse of the Assad regime, Washington is also trying to head off fresh conflicts between Turkish-backed militias and the Syrian Democratic Forces that could hamper operations to fight the Islamic State. In a call with his Turkish counterpart on Dec. 8, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III “reaffirmed the importance of avoiding actions that could present a risk to U.S. forces and partners, and the defeat-ISIS mission,” the Pentagon said. 

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National Security

[Minowski(김유철)]

속된 말로 이 난국에서 끝까지 버틸 독종들은 ISIS류 아닐까 싶습니다. 아프간도 결국 탈레반의 귀환이었고.. ISIS가 지금 아프간의 집권 탈레뱐 만큼 유연성을 가지면서 치안안정을 가져온다면 미국이 원하든말든 터잡을 획률이 높다고봅니다. 시아벨트에 대한 견제로 수니왕정들이 어느세력과 어느정도 수준으로 협력하게될지도 미지수고..

[위종민]

일단 시리아도 알라위족, 드루즈족에 기독교, 쿠르드족까지 끼어있는 잡다한 민족들을 바트당이 어떻게든 묶어놓고 있었던 국가였는데, 이제 그 체제가 무너졌으니 종족별로 이합집산할 지 아니면 뭔가 종족에 기반한 연립정권 비슷한 걸 세울 지 예상이 안 되네요.