Inaccurate earnings forecasts cast doubt on credibility 증권사의 부정확한 실적예측

[김우정]

증권사들의 2분기 가업실적예측의 부정확성이 커지면서 신뢰도에 대한 의문이 제기되었습니다.
13개기업이 이기을 예측햇지만 손실이 났고 손실을 예상한 7개기업은 이익이 났습니다.
SK이노베이션은 970억 영업이익을 예상했지만 458억원의 손실을 기록했습니다.
투자자들에게는 증권사의 리포트가 중요한 자료이고 당국은 증권사들의 신뢰도 제고대책을 세워야 겠습니다.
 
Inaccurate earnings forecasts cast doubt on credibility of securities firms
부정확한 실적 예측으로 증권사의 신뢰성에 의문제기

By Yi Whan-woo 이환우 기자
Posted : 2024-08-16 16:10 Updated : 2024-08-16 16:13
Korea Times

Students take a look at screens showing real-time stock prices as they tour the dealing room of Hana Bank's headquarters in central Seoul, Wednesday. Yonhap 학생들이 11일 서울 중구 하나은행 본점 딜링 룸을 둘러보며 실시간 주가를 보여주는 화면을 살펴보고 있다. 연합

Students take a look at screens showing real-time stock prices as they tour the dealing room of Hana Bank's headquarters in central Seoul, Wednesday. Yonhap
학생들이 11일 서울 중구 하나은행 본점 딜링 룸을 둘러보며 실시간 주가를 보여주는 화면을 살펴보고 있다. 연합

Securities firms face doubts about the credibility of their earnings forecasts for listed companies, as the gap between actual and estimated earnings for several companies was significantly larger than expected in the second quarter.
증권사들은 지난 2분기 여러 기업의 실제 실적과 예상 실적 격차가 예상보다 크게 벌어지면서 상장사 실적 전망의 신뢰성에 의구심을 갖게 됐다.

According to data from market tracker FnGuide, 13 corporations listed on either the benchmark KOSPI or secondary Kosdaq posted losses from April to June in contrast to the prediction of various brokerages that had forecasted profits.
시장추적업체 에프앤가이드 자료에 따르면 지난 4월부터 6월까지 코스피와 제2코스닥 중 하나에 상장된 13개 기업이 이익을 예측했던 여러 증권사의 예측과 달리 손실을 기록했다.

During the same period, seven other listed companies reported profits instead of the expected losses.
같은 기간 예상손실 대신 이익을 신고한 상장사도 7곳이나 됐다.

What was more serious about such inaccurate forecasting was that the disparity between actual and estimated earnings was as wide as 142.8 billion won ($105 million) in the most extreme cases, FnGuide noted.
에프앤가이드는 "이 같은 부정확한 예측이 더 심각한 것은 실제 수익과 예상 수익의 괴리가 가장 극단적인 경우 1,428억원(1억500만달러)에 달할 정도로 컸다"고 지적했다.

“It is possible for brokerage houses to make errors in estimated earnings, but even so, the level of inaccuracy should not be excessive to inflict losses on investors,” said Kim Kyu-shik, chairman of the Korean Corporate Governance Forum, an advocacy for retail investors.
개인투자자를 위한 옹호단체인 한국기업지배구조포럼 김규식 회장은 "중개업소가 추정수익에 오류를 범하는 것은 가능하지만, 그렇다 하더라도 투자자에게 손실을 입힐정도로 부정확한 수준이 과도해서는 안 된다,"고 말했다.

Citing FnGuide, Kim pointed out that KOSPI-listed SK Innovation logged an operating loss of 45.8 billion won in the second quarter after securities firms projected that it would rake in 97 billion won in operating profit.
김 회장은 에프앤가이드를 인용해 코스피 상장사 SK이노베이션이 2분기에 970억원의 영업이익을 거둘 것으로 증권사들이 전망한 뒤 458억원의 영업손실을 기록했다고 지적했다.

Accordingly, the discrepancy between actual and estimated earnings for SK Innovation, an energy subsidiary of SK Group, amounted to 142.8 billion won.
이에 따라 SK그룹의 에너지 자회사인 SK이노베이션의 실제 이익과 예상 이익의 불일치액은 1,428억원에 달했다.

“The brokerage houses’ estimation was too misleading for investors to make a correct judgment on whether to buy or unload shares in SK Innovation,” Kim said.
김 회장은 "SK이노베이션 주식을 매입할지 매각할지에 대해 투자자들이 올바른 판단을 내리기에는 증권사들의 추정이 너무 오해의 소지가 있었다,"고 말했다.

Among other KOSPI-listed companies, cosmetics giant Amorepacific posted a 4.2 billion won operating profit, significantly below the estimated 69.5 billion won.
코스피 상장사 중에서는 화장품 대기업 아모레퍼시픽이 42억원의 영업이익을 올려 예상치 695억원을 크게 밑돌았다.

YG Entertainment, a K-pop powerhouse listed on the Kosdaq, logged an operating loss of 11 billion after it was expected to record a 3.5 billion won operating profit.
코스닥에 상장된 K팝 강자 YG엔터테인먼트가 35억원의 영업이익을 기록할 것으로 예상햇지만110억의 영업손실을 기록했다.

HD Hyundai Mipo, an affiliate of shipbuilding conglomerate HD Hyundai, surprised the market as it earned 17.4 billion won in operating profit following a gloomy forecast that suggested that it would suffer a 5.5 billion won operating loss.
조선 대기업 HD현대의 계열사인 HD현대미포가 55억원의 영업손실을 볼 것이라는 암울한 전망에 이어 174억원의 영업이익을 거둬 시장을 놀라게 했다.

EcoPro BM, a cathode materials manufacturer, posted an operating profit of 3.9 billion won, beating expectations that it would post a 13.5 billion won operating loss.
양극재 제조업체 에코프로비엠은 영업이익이 39억원으로 135억원의 영업손실을 낼 것이라는 예상을 뛰어넘었다.

NC SOFT, a major video game developer, achieved an 8.8 billion won operating profit, surpassing the forecasted operating loss of 1.4 billion won.
주요 비디오게임 개발사인 엔씨소프트가 88억원의 영업이익을 달성하며 예상 영업손실 14억원을 넘어섰다.

Some small investors called on the financial authorities to closely monitor securities firms to ensure they perform their duties responsibly.
일부 소액투자자들은 금융당국에 증권사들이 책임감 있게 업무를 수행할 수 있도록 면밀히 모니터링할 것을 요구했다.

“Who would subscribe to analysts’ reports if they continue to make errors in earnings forecasts?” a Naver user commented.
네이버의 한 사용자는 "분석가들이 실적 예측에서 계속 오류를 범한다면 누가 보고서를 구독하겠느냐"고 말했다.

Another user suspected collusion involving larger, fraudulent investors to be the cause, asking for “a thorough probe into a possible cartel within the stock market.”
또 다른 이용자는 "주식시장 내 카르텔 가능성에 대한 철저한 조사를 부탁한다"며 대규모 사기 투자자들이 연루된 담합을 원인으로 의심했다.

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