Korea's robust exports to reduce recession fears 한국의 수출호조로 불황 공포 감소

[김우정]

세계적인 신용평가회사 S&P와 Fitch의 수석 이코노미스트들과의 한국경제에 대한 인터뷰입니다.
한국경제는 반도체를 중심으로한 IT수출의 호조로 올해 무난히 2.6%의 성장율 할것으로 전망했습니다.
두사람다 한은의 기준금리는 올해 0.25%, 내년에는 0,75% 인하할 것으로 전망했습니다.
그들은 한국이 주택시장이 회복되고 있으며 가계부채증가를 지적했습니다.
 
INTERVIEW Korea's robust exports to reduce recession fears: S&P, Fitch
인터뷰 한국의 수출호조로 불황 공포 감소: S&P, 피치

By Lee Kyung-min 이경민 기자
Posted : 2024-08-21 16:22 Updated : 2024-08-21 17:56
Korea Times

'BOK's key rate not too high compared to 'optimal' rate'
'최적' 금리에 비해 한은 기준금리가 너무 높지 않다'
 

Louis Kuijs, APAC chief economist at S&P Global Ratings / Courtesy of S&P Global Ratings 루이스 쿠이스 S&P Global Ratings APAC 수석 이코노미스트 / S&P Global Ratings 제공

The aftereffects of Korea’s weak private consumption brought on and exacerbated by sustained elevated borrowing costs will have a contained impact on the country’s growth, eclipsed by prospects of strong IT exports in the year to come, senior economists of two of the top three global ratings agency said, Wednesday.
지속적인 차입비용 상승으로 인해 악화된 한국의 민간소비 위축의 후유증이 한국의 성장에 억제된 영향을 미칠 것이며, 이는 향후 1년간 IT 수출 호조 전망에 의해 가려질 것이라고 세계 3대 신용평가사 중 두 곳의 수석 이코노미스트들이 수요일 말했다.

The growth profile of the export-dependent economy is stifled in part by 18 months of monetary tightening by the Bank of Korea (BOK), in their view.
그들의 인터뷰에 의하면 한국은행의 18개월 통화긴축으로 수출의존도가 높은 경제의 성장세가 일부 억제되고 있다는 것이다.

However, the country’s current rate is not significantly high compared to the U.S., for example. Plus, it is still higher than the “optimal” level as measured by the neutral rate, widely known as the r-star. This in turn bolsters the view that the BOK will have greater room to maneuver in the event of a recession. The central bank could have additional room for easing by as much as the difference between the neutral rate and the rate at the beginning of an easing cycle.
그러나 현재 우리나라의 금리는 예를 들어 미국에 비해 크게 높지 않다. 게다가 이는 r-star로 널리 알려진 중립금리에 의해 측정되는 "최적" 수준보다 여전히 높다. 이는 다시 경기침체가 발생할 경우 한은이 움직일 여지가 더 커질 것이라는 견해를 뒷받침한다. 중앙은행은 완화 사이클 초기에 중립금리와 금리의 차이만큼 추가적인 완화 여지를 가질 수 있다.

The r-star is a theoretical rate that neither overstimulates nor slows down the economy, enabling it to achieve potential growth. This is a state of equilibrium desired by monetary authorities. Central bankers around the globe estimate the rate to determine the adequacy of a country's monetary policy.
r-star는 경제를 과도하게 자극하지도 둔화시키지도 않는 이론적인 금리로 잠재성장률을 달성할 수 있다. 이는 통화당국이 원하는 균형 상태이다. 전 세계 중앙은행들은 한 국가의 통화정책의 적정성을 판단하기 위해 금리를 추정한다.

“The risk of recession is modest at the moment, although we can never rule it out," Louis Kuijs, APAC chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, said in an interview with The Korea Times.
S&P 글로벌 레이팅스의 루이스 쿠이즈 APAC 수석 이코노미스트는 코리아타임스와의 인터뷰에서 "불황 위험은 현재로서는 완만하지만 결코 배제할 수 없다,"고 말했다.

The chief economist is of the view that Korea will continue to benefit from a relatively good export performance in the coming 12 months.
이 수석 이코노미스트는 한국이 앞으로 12개월 동안 상대적으로 양호한 수출 실적의 혜택을 계속 받을 것이라는 견해를 가지고 있다.

According to the Korea Customs Service, Korea has registered 14 consecutive months of trade surplus since June last year. The streak is expected to continue, as indicated by the country’s exports between Aug. 1 and 20 reaching $33.1 billion (44.1 trillion won), up 18.5 percent from the previous year.
관세청에 따르면, 한국은 작년 6월부터 14개월 연속 무역 흑자를 기록했다. 8월 1일부터 20일까지 한국의 수출이 전년보다 18.5% 증가한 331억 달러 (44조 1천억 원)에 이른 것에서 알 수 있듯이, 그 연속은 계속될 것으로 예상된다.

Most pronounced was the 42.5 percent year-on-year increase in semiconductor exports to $6.7 billion.
가장 두드러진 것은 반도체 수출액이 67억 달러로 전년 대비 42.5% 증가한 것이다.

The semiconductor constituted over a fifth, or 20.3 percent of the total exports, up 3.4 percentage points over the same period. Exports of computer parts and ships increased over 98 percent and 79 percent, respectively.
반도체는 전체 수출의 1/5, 즉 20.3%를 차지해 같은 기간 3.4% 증가했다. 컴퓨터 부품과 선박 수출은 각각 98%와 79% 이상 증가했다.

Alex Muscatelli, a sovereign credit analyst and director for Economics Group at Fitch Ratings / Courtesy of Fitch Ratings 국가신용애널리스트이자 피치사의 이코노믹스 그룹 이사인 알렉스 무스카텔리 / 피치사 제공

The optimism is echoed by Alex Muscatelli, a sovereign credit analyst and director of the Economics Group of Fitch Ratings.
이 같은 낙관론은 국가신용애널리스트이자 피치사의 이코노믹스 그룹 이사인 알렉스 무스카텔리가 공감하고 있다.

“It is true that net trade has been a driver of growth in Korean GDP over 2023 and the first quarter of 2024,” he said in an interview with The Korea Times.
그는 코리아 타임즈와의 인터뷰에서 "2023년과 2024년 1분기 동안 순무역이 한국 GDP 성장의 견인차 역할을 해온 것은 사실,"이라고 말했다.

Imports increased at a strong pace in the second quarter, while real GDP declined slightly.
2분기 수입은 강한 속도로 증가한 반면 실질 GDP는 소폭 감소했다.

However, weak real income growth and still-high interest rates will constrain consumer dynamics for the remainder of the year, in his view.
그러나 실질소득 증가율이 약하고 여전히 높은 금리는 올해 남은 기간 동안 소비자의 역동성을 제약할 것이라고 그는 생각한다.

Net trade will outstrip domestic demand as a driver of growth, advancing the forecast that real GDP growth for the whole year will be 2.6 percent.
순무역은 성장 동력으로 내수를 앞지를 것이며, 연간 실질 GDP 성장률이 2.6%가 될 것이라는 전망을 앞당길 것이다.

“At the same time, the downside risk to our forecast remains, as indicated by a potential outturn for GDP in the second quarter.”
"동시에, 2분기 GDP의 잠재적인 결과에서 알 수 있듯이, 우리의 예측에 대한 하방위험은 여전히 남아 있다."

Export-import dynamics will underpin improvements in the current account surplus this year to 2.7 percent of GDP, up from 1.9 percent in 2023, he added.
그는 수출입 역동성은 올해 경상수지 흑자가 2023년 1.9%에서 GDP 대비 2.7%로 개선되는 것을 뒷받침할 것이라고 덧붙였다.

BOK easing
한은의 금융완화

Kuijs of S&P acknowledged that the BOK’s key rate weighs on growth. But equally noteworthy was Korea’s level remaining far lower than the U.S.'
S&P의 쿠이스는 한은의 기준금리가 성장에 무게를 두고 있다는 점을 인정했다. 그러나 마찬가지로 주목할 만한 것은 한국의 수준이 미국보다 훨씬 낮다는 점이다.'

“The housing market, one of the most interest rate-sensitive sectors of the economy, is recovering. If Korea were to fall into a recession, the BOK should be able to respond and ease policy. We see GDP rising 2.6 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2025.”
"경제에서 가장 금리에 민감한 부문 중 하나인 주택 시장이 회복되고 있다. 만약 한국이 경기 침체에 빠진다면, 한국은행은 대응하고 정책을 완화할 수 있어야 한다. 우리는 올해 GDP가 2.6%, 2025년에는 2.4% 증가할 것으로 보고 있다."

He said the BOK easing of a quarter point (25 basis points) will come this year, and the rates will inch down by 75 basis points next year.
그는 한은이 올해 0.25포인트(25bp)를 완화하고, 내년에는 금리가 75bp 인하될 것이라고 말했다.

Muscatelli of Fitch shares this view.
피치사의 무스카텔리도 같은 의견이다.

“With inflation still above target, we expect the BOK to cut rates only once this year, by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent,” he said.
그는 "인플레이션이 여전히 목표치를 상회하는 상황에서 한은이 올해 금리를 25bp 인하한 3.25%에 그칠 것으로 예상한다,"고 말했다.

“Weaker price pressures will propel faster cuts next year to 2.5 percent, as enabled by the combination of stronger real incomes and easier financial conditions allowing domestic demand to recover.”
"물가 압력의 약화는 실질소득의 강화와 내수 회복을 가능하게 하는 용이한 금융 조건의 결합에 의해 가능한 것처럼 내년에 2.5%로 더 빠른 인하를 추진할 것이다."

The S&P APAC chief economist said Korea’s household debt as a share of GDP is high in international comparison.
S&P APAC 수석 이코노미스트는 한국의 GDP 대비 가계부채가 국제 비교에서 높은 수준이라고 말했다.

“Corporate debt is also elevated, on this metric," Kuijs said. "We have seen policymakers trying to contain household debt in recent years. Private debt fell in 2023, as a share of GDP. Continuing containing private debt would strengthen macroeconomic stability and help build buffers.”
쿠이스는 "기업부채도 이 지표에서 증가하고 있다,"고 말했다. "우리는 최근 몇 년 동안 정책 입안자들이 가계 부채를 억제하려고 노력하는 것을 보았다. 2023년에는 GDP 대비 민간 부채가 감소했다. 민간 부채를 계속 억제하는 것은 거시경제 안정성을 강화하고 완충 장치를 구축하는 데 도움이 될 것이다."

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