Financial stability takes priority 가계부채 증가와 물가상승 둔화에 따라 금융안정 우선

[김우정]

어제 한국은행은 예상대로 가계부채증가를 우려하며 기준금리를 동결했습니다.

대통령실은 이례적으로 한국은행의 13연속 금리동결에 아쉬움을 표현했습니다.

그러나, 금융통화위원 4명이 향후 3개월내 인하가능성을 밝혔고 2명은 유지의견을 냈습니다.

이제 금리인하는 기정사실이고 10월이냐 11월이냐가 관심의 대상입니다.

Financial stability takes priority as household debt rises and inflation slows
가계부채 증가와 물가상승 둔화에 따라 금융안정 우선

By Lee Kyung-min 이경민 기자
Posted : 2024-08-22 17:02 Updated : 2024-08-22 17:02
Korea Times

BOK extends rate freeze for 13th time, trims 2024 growth outlook
한은, 13번째 금리 동결 연장, 2024년 성장전망 축소

BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong speaks during a press conference at the central bank in Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap 이창용 한은총재가 목요일 서울 중앙은행에서 기자회견을 갖고 발언하고 있다. 연합

The Bank of Korea (BOK) kept the key policy rate unchanged at 3.5 percent, Thursday, marking the 13th consecutive freeze, while the focus has shifted to the timely containment of rapidly increasing household debt and rising property prices.
한국은행이 3일 기준금리를 3.5%로 동결하면서 13년 연속 동결을 유지한 가운데 급증하는 가계부채와 부동산 가격 상승을 적시에 억제하는 쪽으로 무게중심이 이동했다.

Inflation stabilizing to the central bank target of 2 percent is a positive development, BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong said.
이창용 한은총재는 "인플레이션이 중앙은행 목표치인 2%대로 안정되는 것은 긍정적인 발전"이라고 말했다.

However, equally important is curbing household debt before its growth spirals out of control, a critical task for the central bank alongside maintaining price stability.
그러나 마찬가지로 중요한 것은 성장세가 걷잡을 수 없게 되기 전에 가계부채를 억제하는 것인데, 이는 물가 안정과 함께 중앙은행의 중요한 과제이다.

Four members of the BOK’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee indicated they were open to the possibility of easing in three months, while the remaining two believed the current restrictive policy should be maintained during that period. In July, only two members had expressed favorable views on easing within the three-month horizon.
한은의 금리 결정 금융통화위원회 위원 4명은 3개월 후 완화 가능성에 열려 있다고 밝혔고, 나머지 2명은 해당 기간 동안 현재의 제한적 정책을 유지해야 한다고 봤다. 지난 7월 3개월 이내 완화에 대해 우호적인 의견을 밝힌 위원은 2명에 불과했다.

“Financial stability is of greater priority for now, despite inflation showing signs of continuing its downward trend toward 2 percent,” Rhee said during a press conference at the central bank in Seoul.
"인플레이션이 2%대로 계속 하락할 조짐을 보이고 있음에도 불구하고 현재로서는 금융 안정이 더 우선이다,"라고 이총재는 서울의 중앙은행에서 기자회견을 열고 말했다.

In that sense, recently heightened concerns over an economic slowdown due to a restrictive monetary policy lack consideration for the central bank’s broader mandate, he said.
그런 의미에서 최근 제한적 통화정책으로 경기둔화 우려가 고조된 것은 중앙은행의 권한확대에 대한 고려가 부족하다고 그는 말했다.

In his view, state think tanks have called for a prompt easing because their focus on consumption and economic growth does not account for financial stability, particularly given Korea’s record-high household debt.
그의 견해에 따르면, 국가 연구소들은 특히 한국의 사상 최대 가계부채를 고려할 때 소비와 경제성장에 초점을 맞추는 것이 금융안정을 설명하지 못하기 때문에 신속한 완화를 요구해왔다.

“The household debt buildup involves the most interest-sensitive spending, which is almost exclusively tied to real estate market sentiment,” he said.
"The country’s property market is fraught with major red flags, as indicated by the latest data. We should prioritize curbing debt more urgently for the time being," he said.
그는 "가계부채 증가는 가장 이자에 민감한 지출을 수반하는데, 이는 거의 독점적으로 부동산 시장 심리와 맞물려 있다,"고 말했다. 그는 "최근 데이터에서 알 수 있듯이 국내 부동산 시장은 주요 위험 신호로 가득 차 있다"며 "당분간 부채 억제를 더 시급히 우선시해야 한다,"고 말했다.

He explained that the aftereffects of rate cuts on consumption are diminishing due to the population decline.
그는 인구감소로 요금인하가 소비에 미치는 후유증이 줄어들고 있다고 설명했다.

“The economically most productive age group, those aged 20-49, is shrinking, while their older, low-paid counterparts over 65, who have reduced purchasing power, are increasing. In this context, monetary easing will have a limited, delayed impact on spending recovery,” he said.
그는 "경제적으로 가장 생산적인 연령층인 20~49세는 줄어들고 구매력이 낮아진 65세 이상의 나이가 많은 저임금 계층은 늘어나고 있다며 이런 맥락에서 통화완화는 지출회복에 제한적이고 지연된 영향을 미칠 것,"이라고 말했다.

The central bank revised its GDP growth outlook to 2.4 percent for this year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous forecast.
한은은 올해 국내총생산(GDP) 성장률 전망치를 기존 전망치보다 0.1%포인트 내린 2.4%로 수정했다.

The revision is warranted by the fading impact of a one-off, stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter. However, the underlying growth trend remains unchanged and is still well above the country’s potential growth rate of 2 percent.
이 수정은 1/4분기에 예상보다 강력한 일회성 성장의 희미한 영향에 의해 보증된다. 그러나 근본적인 성장추세는 변하지 않고 여전히 잠재 성장률인 2%를 훨씬 상회하고 있다.

Thursday's decision was anticipated, according to Park Seok-gil, executive director of JPMorgan Chase Bank Asia Economic Research.
박석길 JP모건체이스은행 아시아경제연구소 전무는 목요일의 결정이 예견됐던 일이라고 말했다.

“Since the April meeting, we expected that the first rate cut will occur in the fourth quarter with signals for a rate cut in the third quarter,” he said.
그는 "4월 회의 이후 3분기 금리인하 신호와 함께 4분기 첫 금리 인하가 이뤄질 것으로 예상한다,"고 말했다.

“Thursday’s signal was not strong enough to provide a clear view on near-term actions, but the central bank is moving closer to a rate cut in the October-December period. We now see a 25 basis point rate cut as more likely in November rather than October, though the exact timing remains uncertain,” he added.
그는 "목요일의 신호가 단기적인 행동에 대한 명확한 견해를 제공할 만큼 강하지는 않았지만 중앙은행은 10~12월에 금리 인하에 가까워지고 있다며 정확한 시기는 아직 불확실하지만 이제 10월보다는 11월에 25bp 금리 인하 가능성을 더 높게 보고 있다,"고 덧붙였다.

However, in his view, hawkish messages still linger.
그러나 그가 보기에 매파적 메시지는 여전히 남아 있다.

“The rate freeze decision was unanimous without the minority vote we expected. This highlights even the most dovish member remains cautious over household debt buildup. Further strengthening the hawkish tone is Rhee’s strong opposition to a rapid easing cycle, citing the risk of a rebound in home prices,” he said.
그는 "금리 동결 결정은 우리가 예상했던 소수의 투표 없이 만장일치로 이뤄졌다며 이는 가장 비둘기파적인 구성원조차도 가계부채 증가에 대해 신중한 태도를 유지하고 있음을 보여준다고 말했다. 그는 매파적인 어조를 더욱 강화하는 것은 주택가격의 반등 위험을 이유로 들어 이 총재가 급속한 완화사이클에 강력하게 반대하고 있다는 것,"이라고 말했다.


Park Chong-hoon, a director at Standard Chartered Bank Korea, said the central bank is preparing for the much-anticipated easing, as evidenced by four committee members now leaning toward that decision, double the number from before.
한국스탠다드차타드은행의 박종훈 이사는 중앙은행이 기대했던 완화조치를 준비하고 있다고 말했는데, 이는 4명의 위원들이 이 결정에 대해 이전보다 두 배가 늘어난 것을 보여준다.

“Two more members have turned dovish since July, which is a significant development. This coupled with tempered inflation and downgraded economic growth forecast are all steps for an easing in the months to come.”
"7월 이후 두 명의 회원이 추가로 비둘기파로 돌아섰는데, 이것은 중대한 발전이다. 이것은 인플레이션의 완화와 경제 성장률 전망의 하향 조정과 함께 앞으로 몇 달 동안의 완화를 위한 모든 조치이다."

#financialstability금융안정 #householddebt가계부채 #inflation인플레이션 #centralbank중앙은행 #growthoutlook성장전망 #monetarypolicy통화정책 #interestrates금리 #economicslowdown경기둔화 #GDPgrowthGDP성장 #ratecut금리 인하