US Fed chair expected to signal support for rate cuts 미 연준 의장, 금리인하 지지 신호

[김우정]

제롬 파월 연준의장이 다가오는 잭슨홀 경제 심포지엄에서 금리 인하에 대한 지지를 언급할 것으로 보입니다.

인플레이션과 경제 성장 우려에 직면한 연준은 현재 5.25-5.50% 범위인 기준 금리를 낮출 전망입니다.

경제 데이터에 따라 0.25% 또는 0.50%의 신중한 접근이 예상됩니다.

일부 애널리스트들은 연준이 향후 3번 남은 금리결정회의에서 0.75%까지 인하할 것으로 전망합니다.

US Fed chair expected to signal support for rate cuts
미 연준 의장, 금리 인하 지지 신호 보낼 것으로 예상

(AFP)
Posted : 2024-08-23 11:03 Updated : 2024-08-23 17:01
Korea Times

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell participates in a conversation with Economic Club of Washington D.C., July 15. AP-Yonhap 제롬 파월 연방준비제도 의장이 7월 15일 워싱턴 경제클럽과의 대화에 참여하고 있다. AP-연합

U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to use a keynote speech at a major central banking conference on Friday to signal support for cutting interest rates ahead of next month's rate decision.
제롬 파월 미국 연방준비제도 의장이 28일 주요 중앙은행 회의 기조연설을 통해 다음 달 금리 결정을 앞두고 금리인하 지지 신호를 보낼 것이라는 전망이 우세하다.

The annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in the U.S. state of Wyoming gives Powell a global platform to enlighten financial markets about the Fed's thinking, a few weeks after he said policymakers could cut rates "as soon as" September if the labor market remains solid and inflation continues to ease.
파월 의장이 노동시장이 견고하게 유지되고 인플레이션이 계속 완화될 경우 정책 입안자들이 "빠르면" 9월에 금리를 인하할 수 있다고 말한 지 몇 주 후, 미국 와이오밍주에서 열리는 연례 잭슨홀 경제 심포지엄은 파월 의장에게 연준의 생각을 깨우칠 수 있는 글로벌 플랫폼을 제공한다.

The Fed's benchmark lending rate currently sits at a 23-year high of between 5.25 and 5.50 percent, cooling demand in the world's largest economy ahead of November's presidential elections, in which inflation and the cost of living have taken a central role.
연준의 기준 대출금리는 현재 23년 만에 최고치인 5.25~5.50%에 머물고 있어 인플레이션과 생활비가 중심 역할을 한 11월 대선을 앞두고 세계 최대 경제국의 수요를 냉각시키고 있다.

"My sense is that chairman Powell is going to use this symposium to kind of foreshadow what's already largely placed in the market," Nationwide Mutual chief economist Kathy Bostjancic told AFP.
네이션와이드 뮤추얼 수석 경제학자 캐시 보스트잔치치는 AFP와의 인터뷰에서 "파월 의장이 이번 심포지엄을 통해 이미 시장에 많이 나와 있는 것을 미리 보여줄 것,"이라고 말했다.

Powell will likely signal — but not explicitly say — that the Fed "is looking to start to cut interest rates sooner rather than later, and it's most likely going to be in September," she said.
파월 의장은 "연준이 조만간 금리 인하를 시작할 것으로 보이며, 9월이 될 가능성이 가장 높다,"고 그녀는 명시적으로 말하지는 않을 것이라고 말했다.

"He will likely signal that a rate cut is coming soon," Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti told AFP. "However, I think he will not indicate the probable size of that rate cut." Several other high-ranking central bank officials are on the schedule for the three-day gathering in Wyoming's Grand Teton National Park, which this year has the theme of "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy."
매튜 루제티 도이체방크 수석 이코노미스트는 AFP통신에 "그는 아마도 금리인하가 곧 올 것이라는 신호를 보낼 것"이라며 "그러나 그가 그 금리인하의 가능성 있는 규모를 나타내지는 않을 것으로 생각한다"고 말했다. 다른 몇몇 중앙은행 고위 관계자들은 올해 "통화정책의 효과와 전염에 대한 재평가"를 주제로 한 와이오밍의 그랜드 테톤 국립공원에서 열리는 3일간의 모임일정에 있다

A board on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) shows the Dow up nearing 100 points after the opening bell on Wall Street in New York City, Aug. 22. UPI-Yonhap 뉴욕증권거래소(NYSE) 바닥에 있는 게시판은 8월 22일 뉴욕 월스트리트에서 개장 벨이 울린 후 다우지수가 100포인트 가까이 상승하고 있는 것을 보여주고 있다. UPI-연합

25 or 50?
25 또는 50?

After holding its key lending rate at a two-decade high for more than a year, the U.S. central bank now seems poised to start cutting rates in September, as inflation continues to ease towards its long-term two percent target.
1년 넘게 기준금리를 20년 만에 최고치로 유지해온 미 중앙은행은 인플레이션이 장기적인 2% 목표를 향해 계속 완화됨에 따라 이제 9월부터 금리 인하를 시작할 준비가 된 것으로 보인다.

While inflation has eased, the labor market has shown signs of cooling — though still remaining solid by historical standards — and economic growth has been resilient.
인플레이션이 완화된 반면, 노동 시장은 역사적 기준으로 여전히 견고하지만 냉각될 조짐을 보였고 경제성장은 회복력을 보였다.

The Fed has a dual mandate from Congress to tackle both inflation and unemployment, and has been signaling in recent months that the risks to the two sides of its mandate are now coming into better balance.
연준은 인플레이션과 실업문제를 모두 해결해야 하는 의회의 이중적인 권한을 가지고 있으며, 최근 몇 달 동안 권한의 양측에 대한 위험이 이제 더 나은 균형을 이루고 있다고 신호를 보내고 있다.

Earlier this week, the minutes of the Fed's July rate decision spelled out the likely direction of travel: Most members of the bank's rate-setting committee said it would likely be "appropriate" to cut rates at the next meeting, if the data continued to come in as expected.
이번 주 초 연준의 7월 금리 결정 회의록에는 예상대로 데이터가 계속 들어올 경우 다음 회의에서 금리를 인하하는 것이 "적절할 것"이라고 명시되어 있다.

"Inflation gives them the reason to start to cut rates," said Bostjancic from Nationwide Mutual, adding that the labor market data would likely dictate how aggressively they did so.
네이션와이드 뮤추얼의 보스잔치치는 "인플레이션은 그들에게 금리인하를 시작할 이유를 준다,"며 노동시장 데이터는 그들이 얼마나 공격적으로 금리를 인하했는지를 지시할 것이라고 덧붙였다.

Many analysts expect the Fed to move ahead with a more cautious quarter percentage-point rate cut in September, but see a larger half-point cut as a possibility — depending on upcoming data.
많은 애널리스트들은 연준이 9월에 좀 더 신중한 0.25% 포인트의 금리 인하를 단행할 것으로 예상하고 있지만, 다가오는 데이터에 따라 더 큰 0.5% 포인트의 인하를 가능성으로 보고 있다.

Futures traders put the chances of a smaller cut in September around 75 percent, and the probability of a bigger cut at approximately 25 percent, according to data from CME group.
CME 그룹의 자료에 따르면 선물 거래자들은 9월에 더 작은 규모의 인하 가능성을 약 75%, 더 큰 규모의 인하 가능성은 약 25%로 예상했다.

Powell is unlikely to come out strongly in favor of either move on Friday, said Luzzetti from Deutsche Bank.
도이체방크의 루제티는 파월 의장이 금요일 어느 쪽의 조치에도 강력하게 찬성하지 않을 것으로 보인다고 말했다.

The decision to cut by 25 or 50 basis points "will depend on how the data come in over the next month or so, and importantly, what the next jobs report looks like," he said.
그는 "25베이시스 포인트 또는 50베이시스 포인트의 인하 결정은 "향후 약 한 달 동안 데이터가 어떻게 들어오는지, 그리고 중요하게는 다음 일자리 보고서가 어떻게 나오는지에 달려 있다"고 말했다.

A weaker jobs report would likely raise the chances of a larger half-point cut, he added.
일자리 보고서가 약세를 보이면 더 큰 폭의 0.5포인트 인하 가능성이 높아질 것이라고 그는 덧붙였다.

Pace of cuts
인하속도

Back in June, Fed officials reacted to a small uptick in inflation in the first quarter by penciling in just one expected rate cut for 2024.
지난 6월 연준 관리들은 2024년 예상 금리 인하를 단 한 차례만 단행할 것을 계획함으로써 1분기 인플레이션이 소폭 상승한 것에 대응했다.

Since then, inflation has returned to its downward trajectory, and analysts have raised their rate cut forecasts.
이후 인플레이션은 다시 하락 궤도로 돌아섰고, 분석가들은 금리 인하 전망치를 상향 조정했다.

Both Bostjancic and Luzzetti see three quarter-point cuts in the remaining three rate decisions this year as the most likely scenario.
보스잔치와 루체티 모두 올해 남은 3차례 금리 결정에서 0.75% 인하를 가장 유력한 시나리오로 보고 있다.

This would cut the Fed's benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points, lowering it to between 4.50 and 4.75 percent.
이렇게 되면 연준의 기준 대출금리가 75bp 인하돼 4.50~4.75%로 낮아진다.

But the financial markets think the Fed could go further still.
그러나 금융시장은 연준이 더 나아갈 수 있다고 생각한다.

Futures traders have placed a probability of roughly 65 percent that the Fed will move ahead with at least a percentage point of cuts this year, according to data from CME Group. (AFP)
CME그룹 자료에 따르면 선물 거래자들은 연준이 올해 최소 1%포인트의 인하를 단행할 확률을 약 65%로 제시했다. (AFP)

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