사헬 지역에서 물러나고 있는 프랑스

[위종민]

차드가 프랑스와의 방위조약 갱신을 하지 않아 60년만에 프랑스가 차드를 떠난다고 합니다. 

차드가 프랑스군을 쫓아내기로 발표하기 몇시간 전 세네갈도 자국 내 프랑스 군사기지의 폐쇄를 요구했다고 합니다. 차드, 세네갈 외에 니제르, 부르키나파소, 말리도 최근 프랑스군을 내보냈었네요. 

향후 6개월 이내에 프랑스가 차드를 떠난다면, 사헬 지방에서 프랑스와 서방의 직접적 영향력 발휘가 종막을 고한다고 하네요. 

이 글을 쓴 분석가는 차드가 중국이나 러시아같은 새로운 종주국을 찾기보다는 여러 파트너 국가들을 찾을 것 같다고 분석합니다. 

Chad’s break with France: why it happened and what it means for power dynamics in the Sahel region - defenceWeb

Chad’s break with France: why it happened and what it means for power dynamics in the Sahel region

The Conversation -

17th December 2024

The withdrawal of French forces in the Sahel has exacerbated insecurity.

For over six decades, Chad was a crucial ally to French and US forces in their counter-insurgency operations in the Sahel. But both lost influence because of repeated mistakes.

The Sahel region is now regarded as the “epicentre of global terrorism”.

In our recent research, we argue that France and the US put their national interests and those of local elites first for decades, believing that stability could be maintained through military interventions. In doing so, they overlooked critical local factors such as history, religion, negotiations, and the needs of local populations.

The recent dissolution of the Chad-France defence pact marks the end of France’s influence in the Sahel. Chad was the last stronghold of French influence there.

Reflecting Chad’s strategic importance, a French foreign ministry official declared in September 2024: “We cannot afford to lose Chad.” Yet, it has happened.

Chad isn’t alone. A few hours before that announcement, the Senegalese president, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, called for the closure of French military bases in his country, mirroring similar actions in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali in recent times.

France failed to recognise that the era of the empire was over.

The end of the Chad-France defence pact raises questions about who Chad might turn to next and what this means for the region. It marks a shift away from direct western influence in the Sahel and creates an opening for other global powers looking to expand their presence to come.

Why Chad ditched the French defence pact

Chad is a central African country that falls within the Sahel belt, a region of Africa that lies between the Sahara and the tropical savannahs to the south. A former colony of France with about 20 million people, it is landlocked and shares borders with Sudan, Libya, Niger, Central African Republic, Cameroon and Nigeria.

Chad is led by 40-year-old President Mahamat Idriss Déby, who assumed power in 2021 following the death of his father, Idriss Déby Itno, who had ruled since a successful coup in 1990. In May 2024, Mahamat Idriss Déby was sworn in as a civilian president after an election that opposition groups contested and alleged was rigged.

Since independence, France had relied on “colonial pacts” with its former colonies to control their monetary policies and defence agreements, limiting their sovereignty. Chad’s foreign minister, Abderaman Koulamallah, said ending these defence pacts was about taking back sovereignty.

French troops had been stationed in Chad under this defence pact for decades. Ending it breaks a long-standing agreement between the two countries. Déby described the agreement as one established in a different era, with different circumstances and actors, and now obsolete.

Another reason Déby gave was that ending the defence pact fulfilled a promise he made on 23 May 2024, the day he was sworn in as a civilian president, marking Chad’s transition from military rule to civilian leadership.

The push to make this promise may be linked to widespread anti-French sentiment in Africa, as well as demands from civil liberty organisations and opposition parties in Chad for the end of the military pact. The recent killing of over 40 Chadian soldiers by Boko Haram jihadists in an attack on a military base may have been the final trigger for the decision.

Mamadou Doudet, an opposition leader, criticised the French troops for failing to assist Chad during the attack, stating there was no need for their presence. Déby echoed this sentiment, claiming the agreement brought no substantial benefit to Chad in addressing challenges like terrorist attacks.

Meanwhile, the foreign minister emphasised that France remained “an essential partner”, but Chad must be treated as a sovereign state that is “very jealous of its sovereignty.” It echoes what the Senegalese president said:

Senegal is an independent country; it is a sovereign country and sovereignty does not accept the presence of military bases in a sovereign country.

Alongside these public explanations, personal considerations may have also shaped Déby’s decision. He may be unhappy with an inquiry opened by France last July into allegations of using about 900,000 euros (US$965,000) from Chad’s treasury to buy luxury clothing in Paris. This is an allegation Déby has rejected as unfounded.

The power dynamics in the Sahel

When French troops leave Chad within the next six months, it may mark the end of direct French and western influence in the Sahel. Chad is seeking new partners and is unlikely to replicate the old defence pact with France with another state. Chad has received military aid from the UAE, received weapons from Israel, acquired Turkish training aircraft and drones, and is now exploring ties with Russia and Hungary.

Most of the countries that Chad shares borders with are already Russian allies, like Sudan, Libya, Niger and the Central African Republic. Russia’s influence is rising as that of France and the US fades. The US and France are now seeking partners in coastal west Africa.

Last November, France secured a partnership with Nigeria. The two countries signed agreements to strengthen their cooperation, including in the exploration of solid minerals.

Many might expect Chad to turn to Russia or China, but in our view this is unlikely. Chad is likely to seek multiple major partners while avoiding undue influence from any single one.

If Chad adopts this approach, it could help sustain its sovereignty and address the concerns of anti-French advocates. However, it remains to be seen whether such agreements will prioritise the needs of local populations and foster negotiations with the warring parties for lasting peace.

In addition, Chad could strengthen military cooperation with Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, members of the Alliance of Sahel States, to boost counter-terrorism efforts in the region.

The events currently unfolding in Syria, including the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, signal the weaknesses of Assad’s backers, such as Russia and Iran, while enhancing the influence of Turkey and Israel, which opposed his regime. These geopolitical shifts could influence Chad’s choice of partners and prompt other Sahel countries to reassess their alliances.

Without their military bases in the Sahel, France and the US would find it more challenging to continue their counterinsurgency operations in the region. As countries in the Sahel take greater control of their security, cooperation among them will be crucial to achieving shared goals.

Written by Ezenwa E Olumba, Doctoral Research Fellow, Conflict, Violence, & Terrorism Research Centre, Royal Holloway University of London, and Bernard Nwosu, Senior Research Fellow, Development Studies, University of Nigeria.

Republished with permission from The Conversation. The original article can be found here.

[위종민]

https://www.navylookout.com/the-royal-navys-fading-presence-in-the-middle-east/

바레인에 주둔해왔던 영국 해군 전대들도 함정 부족으로 당분간 사라질 예정이란 기사입니다

[백선호]

프랑스는 여기서 테러 조직이 자라는 것을 막는 것 말고 반드시 있어야만 하는 이유가 있을까요?

[위종민]

프랑스가 FDI한 국가별 순위가 궁금한데 그건 찾지 못했고, 대륙별 수출입 순위를 봐도 아시아의 절반에서 1/3 가량이네요. ( https://dl.kotra.or.kr/pyxis-api/2/digital-files/5d6d1736-e03c-48e0-ba56-43640c9ef0d3 )

그냥 식민 종주국으로서의 의무감 같은 거였던 건지..

[사처포(곽명기)]

그 유명한 '외인부대'도 이제 쓰먹을 데가 없어지려나요 ?

[ssn688]

https://youtu.be/dm-9GNli8FY?si=_4BCdmE8m5uZer6p
02:00 부터
(얼마나 대표성이 있는지 모르겠지만)말리 사람은 프랑스가 오히려 아프리카국가들의 군비증강을 억제하고 통제하려 들었다고 불만이네요. 이곳도 파고들수록 혼돈의 세계일지도 모르겠습니다.

[강준구]

수탈의 핵심이었던 아프리카가 21세기에는 뜯어먹을 것도 없으니, 과거 제국주의 세력들이 하나, 둘 알아서 떠나는가 봅니다.