Why did Korea suddenly declare Oct. 1 temporary holiday? 왜 10월1일을 공휴일로 했을까?

[김우정]

정부는 갑자기 10월 1일을 임시공휴일로 정했습니다.
표면적인 이유는 국가인보에 대한 인식응 높이기위한 것이지만 실제로는 내수진작효과 때문입니다.
현대경제연구소에 의하면 공휴일이 추가되면 1.1조원의 소비증가, 4.2조원의 생산유발효과가 발생합니다.
기대했던 국내여행증가보다는 해외여행객들이 급증할것에 대한 우려는 저만의 생각일까요?
 
Why did Korea suddenly declare Oct. 1 temporary holiday?
한국은 왜 갑자기 10월 1일을 임시 공휴일로 지정했을까?

By Lee Yeon-woo 이연우 기자
Posted : 2024-09-08 16:25 Updated : 2024-09-08 16:33
Korea Times

Gettyimagesbank 게티 이미지 뱅크

Effectiveness of stimulating domestic spending questioned
국내 소비촉진효과에 의문제기

The government recently designated Armed Forces Day on Oct. 1 as a temporary holiday. As a result, employees can now enjoy a total of nine days off, from the weekend of Sept. 28 to Oct. 6, if they take three additional days of leave.
정부는 최근 10월 1일 국군의 날을 임시 공휴일로 지정했습니다. 이에 따라 직원들은 주말인 9월 28일부터 10월 6일까지 3일을 추가로 휴가를 받으면 총 9일의 휴가를 받을 수 있게 되었다.

While the government cited the designation as a means to "increase public awareness of the importance of national security and honor the role of the military," market observers believe the actual goal is to boost struggling domestic demand. However, they are skeptical about whether the long holiday can genuinely meet expectations for stimulating domestic spending.
정부는 "국가 안보의 중요성에 대한 대중의 인식을 높이고 군의 역할을 존중하기 위한 수단"으로 이 지정을 꼽았지만, 시장 전문가들은 실제 목표가 어려움을 겪고 있는 내수를 활성화하는 것이라고 생각한다. 그러나 이들은 긴 연휴가 진정으로 내수 진작에 대한 기대를 충족시킬 수 있을지에 대해서는 회의적이다.

Contrary to growing exports, the retail sales index, a key measure of consumer activity, fell by 2.3 percent last month, marking 16 consecutive months of decline.
수출 증가와 달리 소비자 활동의 핵심 척도인 소매판매지수는 지난달 2.3% 하락하며 16개월 연속 하락세를 기록했다.

The downturn caused the number of closed businesses in Seoul during the second quarter of this year to reach 6,290, surpassing the 6,258 closures recorded in the first quarter of 2020, when the restaurant industry was severely impacted by COVID-19.
경기 침체로 인해 올해 2분기 서울의 폐업한 사업체 수는 6,290개로 코로나19로 인해 외식업이 심각한 영향을 받았던 2020년 1분기의 폐업 6,258개를 넘어섰다.

The anticipated economic effects of the temporary holiday is one of the few options left for the government to rely on, as it lacks the financial capacity to stimulate private consumption. The government has already front-loaded 357.5 trillion won ($266.8 billion) — 63.6 percent of the yearly budget — in the first half of this year. But this failed to yield significant results.
임시 공휴일로 인한 예상되는 경제적 효과는 민간 소비를 촉진할 재정적 여력이 부족하기 때문에 정부가 의존해야 할 몇 안 되는 옵션 중 하나이다. 정부는 올해 상반기에 이미 연간 예산의 63.6%인 357조 5,000억 원(2,668억 달러)을 선집행했다. 그러나 이는 큰 성과를 거두지 못했다.

In its 2020 report, Hyundai Research Institute estimated that each additional national holiday would increase consumer spending by 2.1 trillion won and create a production-inducing effect of 4.2 trillion won.
현대경제연구소는 2020년 보고서에서 공휴일이 추가될 때마다 소비자 지출이 2조 1,000억 원 증가하고 4조 2,000억 원의 생산유발효과가 발생할 것으로 예상했다.

A clearance sale notice is displayed at a store in Seoul, Sept. 1. Yonhap 9월 1일, 서울의 한 매장에 정리세일 공지가 표시되어 있다. 연합

"The designation of the temporary holiday is expected to boost leisure and tourism activities, particularly within the country, which will have a ripple effect on both the service and manufacturing industries," the institute wrote at the time.
당시 연구소는 "임시 공휴일 지정으로 특히 국내에서 레저 및 관광 활동이 활성화되어 서비스업과 제조업 모두에 파급 효과가 있을 것으로 예상된다,"고 썼다.

However, the scheme is unlikely to be a game-changer for the recent recession. Market watchers believe that consumption can only recover if income conditions improve.
그러나 이 제도가 최근 경기 침체의 판도를 바꿀 것 같지는 않다. 시장 전문가들은 소득 상황이 개선되어야만 소비가 회복될 수 있다고 믿고 있다.

"There may be a temporary boost in consumption, but with high inflation and interest rates still in place, it seems insufficient to significantly reverse the ongoing weakness in domestic demand," Chon So-ra, an economics professor at Inha University, said.
인하대 경제학과 전소라 교수는 "일시적으로 소비가 증가할 수 있지만 높은 인플레이션과 금리가 여전히 유지되고 있는 상황에서 지속적인 내수 약세를 크게 되돌리기에는 부족해 보인다,"고 말했다.

According to Statistics Korea, the average monthly household income in the second quarter of 2024 increased by 3.5 percent compared to the previous year. But real income, adjusted for inflation, rose by only 0.8 percent.
통계청에 따르면 2024년 2분기 월평균 가계 소득은 전년 동기 대비 3.5% 증가했다. 그러나 인플레이션을 조정한 실질소득은 0.8% 증가에 그쳤다.

The travel industry also reported that people are choosing international trips following the designation of the temporary holiday, contrary to expectations that domestic travel would increase and boost consumer spending. Very Good Tour, a leading travel agency, said Thursday that the number of outbound travelers between Oct. 1 and 4 this year reached 10,121, representing a 27 percent increase compared to the same period last year.
여행 업계는 또한 국내 여행이 증가하고 소비자 지출이 증가할 것이라는 예상과 달리 임시 공휴일 지정에 따라 해외 여행을 선택하고 있다고 보고했다. 선도적인 여행사인 베리굿투어는 올해 10월 1일부터 4일까지 해외 여행객 수가 10,121명으로 작년 같은 기간에 비해 27% 증가했다고 목요일 밝혔다.

The government acknowledged that the growth in exports has been slower in stimulating domestic demand than anticipated. However, it remains optimistic about a future recovery.
정부는 수출 증가세가 예상보다 둔화되어 내수를 부양하고 있다는 점을 인정했다. 그러나 향후 회복에 대해서는 여전히 낙관적이다.

"We anticipate that real incomes and wages will improve further in the second half of the year," Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok said Sunday during an interview with local broadcaster KBS.
최상목 부총리 겸 기획재정부 장관은 일요일 국내방송사 KBS와의 인터뷰에서 "하반기 실질소득과 임금이 더 개선될 것으로 예상한다,"고 말했다.

"We cautiously predict that the growth rate of domestic consumption will expand in the latter half of this year compared to the first half, and even more so next year."
"올해 하반기에는 상반기에 비해 내수 성장률이 확대될 것으로 조심스럽게 예측하고 있으며, 내년에는 더욱 그럴 것이다."

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