Fed's big cut spurs expectations of BOK easing 연준의 큰 폭의 금리 인하로 한국금리인하기대감 고조

[김우정]

미국 연준이 기준금리를 50bp 인하해서 다음달 한은의 금리인하가능성이 커졌습니다.
금리인하의 가장 큰 걸림돌은 가계부채의 급격한 증가입니다.
우리나라의 금융시장은 이미 금리인하를 단행하고 있어서 10월 금리인하가능성이 커지고 있습니다.
지난 달에 금융통화위원 6명중 4명은 향후 3개월이내에 금리인하가능성이 있다고 말했습니다.
10월 금통위에서 25bp를 인하할 것이라는 전망이 유력해 보입니다.
 
Fed's big cut spurs expectations of BOK easing next month
연준의 큰 폭의 금리 인하로 다음 달 한국은행의 완화 기대감 고조

By Lee Kyung-min 이경민 기자
Posted : 2024-09-19 17:05 Updated : 2024-09-20 07:46
Korea Times

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong / Yonhap 이창용 한국은행 총재 / 연합

The possibility of the Bank of Korea (BOK) initiating an easing cycle next month is increasing, buoyed by the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) recent rate cut of 50 basis points, market watchers said Thursday.
한국은행이 미국 연방준비제도(연준)의 최근 금리 50bp 인하에 힘입어 다음 달 완화 사이클을 시작할 가능성이 높아지고 있다고 시장 전문가들이 목요일 밝혔다.

The rapid buildup of household debt is expected to be the biggest policy concern, as headline inflation over the past few months has trended down to the central bank’s target of 2 percent.
지난 몇 달 동안 헤드라인 인플레이션이 중앙은행의 목표치인 2%까지 하락하면서 가계 부채의 급격한 증가가 가장 큰 정책적 관심사가 될 것으로 예상된다.

Also favorable is muted volatility of the Korean currency against the U.S. dollar — a factor for a diminished risk of capital outflow in an emerging economy extremely vulnerable to foreign investor sentiment. 
또한 외국인 투자 심리에 매우 취약한 신흥국의 자본유출 위험감소 요인인 미국 달러 대비 한국통화의 변동성이 둔화된 점도 호재로 작용한다.

Further warranting the easing is stagnant overall economy, defined by robust exports of select manufactured goods barely eclipsing post-pandemic years of subdued consumption from the vast majority of the public.
일부 제조품의 견조한 수출이 팬데믹 이후 대다수 대중의 소비둔화를 거의 따라가지 못하면서 전반적인 경제가 정체되고 있다는 점도 완화를 뒷받침한다.

Experts say the recently fortified macroprudential policy tools including stress debt service ratio (DSR) measures should be able to rein in the country’s household debt. The stress DSR applies add-ons to assess the borrower’s repayment capacity relative to their income in a hypothetical scenario of a rate hike, thereby reducing the maximum borrowable amount.
전문가들은 스트레스 부채 서비스 비율(DSR) 조치를 포함한 최근 강화된 거시 건전성 정책 도구가 국가 가계부채를 억제할 수 있을 것이라고 말한다. 스트레스 DSR은 금리 인상이라는 가상 시나리오에서 소득 대비 대출자의 상환능력을 평가하기 위해 추가 기능을 적용하여 최대 차입 가능 금액을 줄인다.

Financial stability
금융안정성

“Household debt and property prices are becoming key factors in considerations for an easing,” Yoon Jee-ho of BNP Paribas Korea said.
BNP파리바코리아의 윤지호 대표는 "가계부채와 부동산 가격이 완화를 고려할 때 핵심 요인이 되고 있다,"고 말했다.

Five months of sharp growth in household loans raises concerns from a financial stability perspective, he said.
그는 5개월 동안 가계 대출이 급격히 증가하면서 금융 안정성 관점에서 우려가 커지고 있다고 말했다.

However, the large volume of household loans is expected to be brought under control, aided by the implementation of the second phase of the stress DSR. 
그러나 스트레스 DSR의 2단계 시행에 힘입어 많은 양의 가계 대출이 통제될 것으로 예상된다.

“We may need a couple of more months to gain confidence in the downtrend of household debt, but the government's measures are likely to decelerate the pace of debt growth.”
"가계부채 감소 추세에 대한 신뢰를 얻으려면 몇 달이 더 필요할 수 있지만, 정부의 조치로 인해 부채 증가 속도가 느려질 가능성이 높다."

The market has already priced in at least three quarter point rate cuts, a basis for the brokerage to maintain the view for an October cut.
시장은 이미 최소 3분기 금리 인하를 단행했으며, 이는 증권사가 10월 인하 전망을 유지할 수 있는 근거이다.

“The rapid pace of a BOK easing has largely been ruled out, as indicated by the price movements of key benchmark products,” he said.
"주요 벤치마크 제품의 가격 움직임에서 알 수 있듯이 한국은행의 빠른 완화 속도는 대부분 배제되었다,"라고 그는 말했다.

Park Chong-hoon, a director at Standard Chartered Bank Korea, said the Fed’s big cut provides the BOK with greater room to maneuver.
한국 스탠다드차타드은행의 박종훈 이사는 연준의 대규모 금리인하로 한국은행이 더 큰 폭으로 움직일 수 있는 여지가 생겼다고 말했다.

The U.S.-Korea key rate differential remains one of the most crucial factors, closely linked to changes in the valuation of the Korean currency and subsequent shifts in foreign investor risk appetite, he said. 
그는 미국과 한국의 기준금리 차이는 여전히 가장 중요한 요인 중 하나이며, 이는 한국 통화 가치의 변화와 그에 따른 외국인 투자자 위험 선호도의 변화와 밀접하게 연관되어 있다고 말했다.

“Concerns about the Korean currency plunging is limited, buffered by the Fed turning dovish before the BOK. The won is not likely to experience great volatility, unless sudden global geopolitical tensions arise,” Park said.
"한국통화 급락에 대한 우려는 연준이 한국은행보다 비둘기파적인 태도로 돌아서면서 제한적이다. 갑작스러운 글로벌 지정학적 긴장이 발생하지 않는 한 원화는 큰 변동성을 경험하지 못할 것이다."라고 박이사는 말했다.

More members of the central bank’s monetary policy body will be inclined toward a rate cut in his view.
더 많은 중앙은행 통화정책기구 위원들이 금리 인하에 기울어질 것이라고 그는 전망한다. 

“Four of six rate-setters on the Monetary Policy Committee said in August that they were open to the possibility of easing within three months. Global and domestic financial conditions have since registered developments conducive to the beginning of an easing cycle.”
"금융통화위원회의 금리결정권자 6명 중 4명은 8월에 3개월 이내에 완화할 가능성이 있다고 밝혔다. 이후 글로벌 및 국내 금융상황은 완화 사이클이 시작될 때 도움이 되는 상황을 기록했다."

According to an Aug. 23 BOK report, Korea’s exports of U.S.-bound intermediate goods, including steel, chemical, and petroleum products, are expected to decline if the world's largest economy grows at a slower-than-expected pace.
8월 23일 한국은행 보고서에 따르면, 세계 최대 경제대국인 한국이 예상보다 느린 속도로 성장할 경우 철강, 화학, 석유제품을 포함한 대미 중간재 수출이 감소할 것으로 예상된다.

Adding to the pessimism is the growing dependence of Korean exports on U.S. consumer sentiment over the past four years, amid strengthened bilateral economic ties.
비관론에 더해 지난 4년간 양국 경제관계가 강화되면서 한국 수출이 미국 소비자 심리에 의존하고 있다는 점도 비관론을 더하고 있다.

Earlier in the day, Financial Supervisory Service Governor Lee Bok-hyun urged closer monitoring of market volatility, highlighting the mismatch between economic indicators and market expectations.
이날 이복현 금융감독원장은 경제지표와 시장 기대치의 불일치를 지적하며 시장 변동성에 대한 면밀한 모니터링을 촉구했다.

“Of seven previous Fed rate cuts, four led to a soft landing within a year of the easing cycle, whereas three ended in a recession,” he said. “The soundness of the foreign exchange market should be closely monitored for potential scenarios such as capital outflows, including the unwinding of yen carry trades.” 
그는 "이전 연준의 금리 인하 7건 중 4건은 완화 사이클 이후 1년 이내에 연착륙했고, 3건은 경기 침체로 끝났다,"라고 말했다. "외환 시장의 건전성은 엔화 캐리 트레이드 해제를 포함한 자본유출과 같은 잠재적 시나리오에 대해 면밀히 모니터링해야 한다."

#FederalReserve연방준비제도(연준) #BankofKorea한국은행 #Ratecut금리인하 #Householddebt가계부채 #Easingcycle완화사이클