중국, 이번엔 H-20을 공개?

[위종민]

J-36(JH-36)이 공개된 지 며칠 되지 않아 H-20으로 추정되는 중국의 신형기가 시험비행중인 사진이 중국 소셜미디어에 등장했네요. 사진이 찍힌 위치와 날짜는 공개되지 않았습니다. J-16이 추격기로 동행했지만 고도가 달라 정확한 크기를 추정하기는 어렵다고 합니다. 

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/chinas-secret-h-20-stealth-bomber

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Has China’s Secret H-20 Stealth Bomber Broken Cover?

Jan. 6, 2025 | By John A. Tirpak

Imagery has appeared on Chinese social media of a new large combat aircraft, apparently making a test flight, which may be China’s new secret H-20 stealth bomber. The location and exact date of the imagery were not disclosed, and the People’s Republic of China has not made an official comment about the footage, the authenticity of which cannot yet be established. The U.S. Department of Defense just recently predicted the bomber would not debut for years.

The grainy imagery is circulating just a week after footage appeared of a new Chinese medium bomber-sized aircraft and a somewhat smaller design, possibly a new fighter or uncrewed combat drone. The new medium bomber and fighter images appeared on the birthday of Chinese leader Mao Zedong, whose birthday has been marked with new aircraft disclosures in the past. There have been fewer social media images of the purported H-20.

The new footage shows a large aircraft that has an overall stealthy diamond shape, in which the planform edges agree with each other’s angles for low radar cross section. It is not, however, a “flying wing,” with distinct and lengthy wings, a large empennage, and a large central fuselage.

The imagery shows a planform very similar to a Chinese wind tunnel model of a “notional” bomber, images of which circulated on the internet in 2022. Those photos showed an aircraft with large-area tail control surfaces that could be shifted to either produce lift or directional stability. Artist’s concepts of that wind tunnel model as an operational bomber have appeared in numerous Chinese and Pacific publications, but Beijing has not commented on their veracity. Chinese senior military leaders have said in the last year, however, that the appearance of the H-20 would be imminent.

Share more pictures. 😎https://t.co/vTo2TSUmR9 pic.twitter.com/ZjGXZwAeIw

— 彩云香江 (@louischeung_hk) August 22, 2022

An industry official noted that the wind tunnel design has an overall shape similar to that of Northrop’s proposed A-12 attack plane program from the 1980s, but with the addition of the large tail control surfaces and scaled to an overall larger size.

The aircraft in this most recent social media video has a sharper angle of wing sweep, with a slight “cranked kite” shape. Curiously, the aircraft is emitting a single contrail, although it is certainly a multi-engined aircraft. The aircraft seems to have a flat exhaust, but details are difficult to discern.

The aircraft was chased by a J-16 fighter, but the two aircraft did not seem to be at the same altitude and were not flying in close formation in the images, making it difficult to estimate the new aircraft’s size.

If the aircraft is indeed the H-20, China is making strides with the bomber faster than expected by the Pentagon, which said in its most recent China military power report that the aircraft might not appear for another 10 years.

That report, released in mid-December, said the H-20, “which may debut sometime in the next decade” is likely to have a 10,000-mile range, allowing China to project power beyond what it calls the “Second Island Chain” of its strategic defense concept. With aerial refueling, the aircraft could “cover the globe,” the Pentagon said, adding “it is expected to employ conventional and nuclear weaponry and feature a stealthy design.”

It was not clear whether the DOD meant that the H-20’s “debut” would mean its appearance in test or its readiness for operations.

The H-20 has been reported to be in the works for at least 10 years. The appearance last week of a possible medium-range bomber prototype seemed to suggest that China is having problems with the H-20 and needed a stopgap solution for a stealthy, penetrating long-range strike platform. The appearance of this new aircraft would contradict that.

Imagery has also appeared in recent days of China’s new KJ-3000, an AWACS-like aircraft based on the Y-20 cargo aircraft, complete with a rotating radome, which also seems to have extensive electronic warfare gear.

A U.S. Air Force official said that service has been “closely monitoring” China’s ongoing military modernization efforts, and said of the appearance of the medium-bomber and fighter aircraft last week that these developments are “consistent with our understanding of China’s strategic objectives and long-term force planning.” But the official also said these new weapons require “highly skilled personnel to actually employ them to the max extent of their capability.”

[Minowski(김유철)]

트럼프정권 출범 전 몸값 높이기로 북중러우이 다 바쁘네요

[위종민]

다들 도박판 열리기 전에 쌓아놓은 칩들 보여주는 것 같습니다 ㅋㅋㅋ

[백선호]

Secretprojects.co.uk에서는 대부분 가짜라고 하네요.

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/chinese-stealth-bomber-program-xac-h-x-h-20.28076/page-9#post-743570

[위종민]

민간이나 군부에서 뿌리는 가짜 정보들이 많이 섞여있을 것 같긴 합니다.