중국의 선제공격에 취약한 미군 공군기지시설

[위종민]

미국의 싱크탱크 허드슨 연구소에서 중국인민해방군의 인프라 확장이 미국을 앞서면서 서태평양의 미군 공군기지가 중국의 위협에 취약하다는 보고서를 발간했네요. 

중국은 강화된 항공기 셸터를 3천개 이상 늘렸지만 미국은 2010년대 초 이후로 단 두 개를 더 늘렸다고 합니다. 그 결과 잠재적 분쟁에서 대부분의 항공기 손실이 지상에서 발생될 것으로 예상했네요. 

서태평양상에서 미국이 가용한 항공기 셸터의 절반 이상이 한국에 있습니다 ㄷㄷㄷ 

US Pacific airfields highly vulnerable to China's preemptive attack - Asia Times

US Pacific airfields highly vulnerable to China's preemptive attack - Asia Times

US Pacific airfields highly vulnerable to China’s preemptive attack

New report highlights US failure to harden military aircraft shelters, leaving them exposed to precision missile strikes in a Taiwan war

by Gabriel HonradaJanuary 13, 2025

Anderson Air Force Base in Guam is vulnerable to a preemptive Chinese attack, think tank reports say. Photo: US Air Force

US airfields in the Pacific are critically vulnerable to China’s advanced long-range aviation and missile capabilities, risking devastating losses before a potential conflict even begins.

This month, the Hudson Institute think tank released a report saying that US airfields in the Western Pacific face critical vulnerability as China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has vastly outpaced US efforts to harden airfield infrastructure.

The Hudson Institute report says that while China’s military has doubled its hardened aircraft shelters to over 3,000 and added extensive runways, the US military has added two since the early 2010s. The report says this disparity leaves US airbases dangerously exposed to precision missile strikes, with most aircraft losses in a potential conflict expected to occur on the ground.

The report states that China’s fortification efforts enable sustained air operations under attack, posing a strategic advantage. In contrast, it points out that US reliance on Cold War-era approaches and minimal investment in airfield resilience increases operational risks and incentivizes Chinese aggression.

It recommends a multi-year campaign to harden US airbases, deploy active and passive defenses, and redesign force structures to operate from distant or dispersed locations. Without these measures, the Hudson Institute report warns that the US risks losing air superiority in the Indo-Pacific and faces a destabilizing strategic imbalance that could provoke preemptive Chinese military actions.

Further, The War Zone reported in December 2024 that the US Air Force’s new Installation Infrastructure Action Plan (I2AP) notably omits plans for new hardened aircraft shelters despite acknowledging that bases can no longer be considered sanctuaries and must operate under attack.

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The War Zone notes that this absence is striking amid growing drone and missile threats, particularly from China. It says that while the I2AP emphasizes modernizing and right-sizing base infrastructure, improving resiliency against attacks and natural disasters, and enhancing power grid reliability, it leans towards flexibility and rapid recovery rather than physical hardening.

The report mentions that US Air Force officials argue that diversifying and proliferating assets is more effective than investing heavily in hardened structures. It mentions the high cost and limited effectiveness of hardened shelters against precision-guided weapons.

However, The War Zone points out that this approach contrasts with US Congress concerns, highlighted by a letter from 13 Republican lawmakers warning that most US aircraft losses in simulated conflicts with China occurred on the ground.

Asia Times reported in March 2024 that US lawmakers had raised alarms over the vulnerability of US airbase infrastructure in the Pacific to Chinese missile attacks, criticizing the US Department of Defense’s (DOD) sluggish response to the escalating threat.

In a letter dated May 2024, Representative John Moolenaar and Senator Marco Rubio urged US Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall and US Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro to expedite critical defense upgrades. They noted that China’s advanced missile capabilities now threaten all US bases in the region, including Anderson Air Force Base in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands.

The lawmakers also pointed out the US DOD’s slow adoption of passive defenses, such as hardened aircraft shelters, essential for withstanding and quickly recovering from potential attacks. Despite China constructing over 400 such shelters in the past decade, the US has added only 22.

The letter also criticized cumbersome regulations on handling World War II-era munitions, which delay essential construction projects and inflate costs. The lawmakers warned that failure to act could severely impair the US military’s operational capabilities in a conflict, particularly in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Discussing the consequences of underinvestment in hardened airbase infrastructure, Kelly Grieco and other writers mention in a December 2024 Stimson Center think tank report that Chinese missile strikes could cripple US air operations in the Indo-Pacific, targeting key runways and taxiways to disrupt sortie generation and aerial refueling at the outset of a conflict.

Grieco and others say that the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) is capable of deploying ballistic and cruise missiles to close runways in Japan, Guam and other Pacific locations, potentially grounding fighter operations for up to 12 days and tanker operations for over a month.

They note that without operational tankers, US fighters would struggle to reach or return from critical combat zones such as the Taiwan Strait, while bombers may face significant delays due to reliance on distant bases. They say these disruptions could provide China with a strategic window to achieve its military objectives, such as seizing Taiwan, before US forces recover.

Underscoring the growing threat of Chinese long-range strikes on US airfields in the Pacific,  Air & Space Forces Magazine reported in December 2024 that China is significantly expanding the reach of its missiles and warplanes, posing a growing threat to US interests in the Pacific.

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According to the report, the PLA is enhancing its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy by increasing ballistic missiles and advanced aircraft. It adds that the PLA Navy (PLAN) and Air Force (PLAAF) are now operating more frequently and farther from China’s shores, leveraging new air refueling capabilities to extend their operational range.

The US DOD’s 2024 China Military Power report mentions that China’s long-range aviation and missile forces enjoyed significant advancements through last year, reflecting a continued emphasis on enhancing strategic deterrence and power projection.

The report says that the PLAAF has integrated the Y-20U aerial tanker, which expanded its ability to sustain long-range air operations by enabling international deployments and over-water missions into the Philippine Sea.

Concurrently, it says the PLAAF pursued the development of the H-20 stealth bomber, which is projected to achieve a global strike capability, marking a critical step in evolving China’s airborne leg of its nuclear triad.

Meanwhile, it notes that the PLARF diversified its inventory with hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV) and modern intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) like the DF-27, capable of delivering nuclear and conventional payloads at ranges up to 8,000 kilometers. It says the DF-17 missile, equipped with HGVs, bolstered precision strike capabilities across the Western Pacific.

The report mentions these developments are supported by improvements in command and control, missile defense countermeasures, and space-based targeting technologies, underscoring China’s strategic focus on achieving military parity with global powers and deterring adversaries across multiple domains​.

Concrete+Sky+-+Air+Base+Hardening+in+the+Western+Pacific+-+Shugart+-+Walton.pdf ( 아래는 Deepl 번역본) 

Concrete+Sky+-+Air+Base+Hardening+in+the+Western+Pacific+-+Shugart+-+Walton ko.pdf

4.58MB

2010년대 초, 중국 인민해방군은 군용 비행장에 강화된 항공기 대피소(HAS)와 강화되지 않은 개별 항공기 대피소(IAS)를 두 배 이상 늘려 민간 또는 상업용 비행 장을 제외한 총 3,000개 이상의 항공기 대피소를 보유하게 되었습니다. 이는 중 국 대부분을 수용하고 숨길 수 있는 충분한 대피소입니다. 또한 중국은 20개의 활주로와 40개 이상의 활주로 길이의 유도로를 추가했으며, 전국적으로 램프 면 적을 75% 가까이 늘렸습니다. 실제로 중국이 공군 기지 네트워크의 복원력을 개선하기 위해 사용한 콘크리트의 양은 워싱턴 DC에서 시카고까지 4차선 주 간 고속도로를 포장할 수 있는 양입니다. 그 결과, 중국은 현재 대만 해협에서 1,000해리 이내에 134개의 공군 기지를 보유하고 있으며, 650개 이상의 HAS 와 최대 2,000개의 비강화 IAS를 보유하고 있습니다.

반면, 미국의 비행장 확장 및 요새화 노력은 냉전 시기 미국의 활동과 비교했을 때, 그리고 최근 중국의 행보와 비교했을 때 미미한 수준입니다. 2010년대 초부 터 대만 해협에서 1,000해리 이내의 비행장과 한국 외곽의 비행장을 조사한 결과, 미군은 HAS 2개와 IAS 41개, 활주로 1개와 유도로 1개, 램프 면적 17%만 추가 했습니다. 대만 외곽의 동맹국 및 파트너 비행장의 램프 면적을 포함하면 대만 해 협에서 1,000해리 이내에 있는 미군, 동맹국 및 파트너 군의 비행장 능력을 합하 면 중국의 약 3분의 1에 불과합니다. 대한민국에 비행장이 없으면 이 비율은 4 분의 1로 떨어지고, 필리핀에 비행장이 없으면 15%로 더 떨어집니다.

위 논문의  7~8페이지. 

[위종민]

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/usaf-aircraft-shelter-gap-china-deterrence

Air and Space Force Magazine에서도 이 보고서를 다뤘네요

[강준구]

아이러니하게도 한반도는 중국 본토와 너무 근접해 있어, 한국의 shelter는 활용하기가 쉽지 않을 듯 합니다. 덧붙여, 거긴 한국 공군 기체들로 빽빽히 들어 차지 않을까요?
결국은 괌, 일본, 필리핀 등을 활용하게 되지 않을까 싶습니다.