Surge in export growth raises hopes of Korea surpassing Japan 한국수출, 일본추월가능성

[김우정]

올해 상반기 한국수출은 일본과의 격차를 35억달러로 줄이며 연간수출액이 일본을 추월 할 수도 있습니다.

IMF는 2024년 한국의 1인당 GDP가 34,165달러로 일본의 33,138달러를 능가할 것으로 전망합니다.

스위스의 IMD가 발표한 국가경쟁력은 한국이 20위이고 일본은 38위입니다.

일본과의 경쟁력우위에 만족하기보다는 경제의 온기가 저소득층에도 전해지도록 노력해야겠습니다.

Surge in export growth raises hopes of Korea surpassing Japan
수출증가율 급증으로 한국이 일본 추월에 대한 희망증가

By Yi Whan-woo 이환우 기자
Posted : 2024-10-12 10:08 Updated : 2024-10-12 10:08
Korea Times

gettyimagesbank 게티이미지뱅크

Seoul outperforms Tokyo in several economic indicators
서울, 여러 경제 지표에서 도쿄를 능가

Korea's exports are growing at a faster pace with less than three months remaining in 2024, raising hopes of surpassing Japan in outbound shipments for the first time in history.
한국의 수출은 2024년까지 3개월도 남지 않은 상황에서 빠른 속도로 성장하고 있어 사상 처음으로 수출 출하량에서 일본을 추월할 수 있다는 기대감이 커지고 있다.
This optimism arises as Korea has started to outpace Japan in several economic statistics and surveys released this year by institutions both domestically and internationally.
이러한 낙관론은 한국이 국내외 기관이 올해 발표한 여러 경제통계와 설문조사에서 일본을 앞지르기 시작하면서 불거졌다.

They include the Bank of Korea’s (BOK) 2023 gross national Income (GNI) and International Institute for Management Development’s (IMD) 2024 national competitiveness assessments.
여기에는 한국은행의 2023년 국민총소득(GNI)과 국제경영개발원(IMD)의 2024년 국가경쟁력 평가가 포함된다.

According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea's exports in the first nine months of 2024 reached $508.8 billion, making it the second-highest total for any comparable period in the country's history.
산업통상자원부에 따르면 2024년 첫 9개월 동안 한국의 수출액은 5,088억 달러로, 한국 역사상 두 번째로 높은 수치이다.

For the June-September period, outbound shipments rose 10.7 percent year-on-year to $173.9 billion. The amount was also the second-highest for any third quarter of the year after the government began compiling relevant data.
6월부터 9월까지 아웃바운드 출하량은 전년 동기 대비 10.7% 증가한 1,739억 달러를 기록했다. 이 금액은 정부가 관련 데이터를 수집하기 시작한 이후 올해 3분기 중 두번째로 높은 수치이기도 하다.

Exports surged 7.5 percent year-on-year last month, continuing a growth streak for the 12th consecutive month.
지난달 수출은 전년 동월 대비 7.5% 급증하며 12개월 연속 증가세를 이어갔다.

As a result, outbound shipments reached an all-time high for any single month, totaling $58.77 billion.
그 결과 한 달 동안 수출 출하량은 총 587억 7,000만 달러로 사상 최고치를 기록했다.

Additionally, average daily exports in September reached a record high of $2.94 billion.
또한 9월 하루 평균 수출액은 29억 4,000만 달러로 사상 최대치를 기록했다.

Containers of exports are stacked to be shipped at a port in Busan, Sept. 30. Yonhap 9월 30일 부산의 한 항구에서 수출 컨테이너가 선적되기 위해 쌓여 있다. 연합

"All the data are certainly intriguing enough to capture public interest in whether Korea can surpass Japan in exports," said Cho Hyuk-soo, an international trade professor at Chungnam National University.
조혁수 충남대 국제통상학과 교수는 "한국이 수출에서 일본을 넘어설 수 있을지에 대한 대중의 관심을 사로잡을 만큼 모든 데이터가 흥미롭다,"고 말했다.

In particular, the professor highlighted that Korea reduced its export gap with Japan to a record low of $3.5 billion in the first half of 2024.
특히 이 교수는 한국이 2024년 상반기에 일본과의 수출 격차를 사상 최저치인 35억 달러로 줄였다고 강조했다.

Back then, Korea’s exports advanced 9 percent year-on-year to reach $334.8 billion, whereas Japan’s outbound shipments retreated 3.6 percent to $338.3 billion.
당시 한국의 수출은 전년 대비 9% 증가한 3,348억 달러를 기록했고, 일본의 해외 수출은 3.6% 감소한 3,383억 달러를 기록했다.

“Such a narrowed gap is dramatic considering Korea used to be one of the poorest countries in the world and that it was nowhere close to Japan that once boasted the world’s second-largest economy after the United States,” Cho said.
조교수는 "한국이 세계에서 가장 가난한 나라 중 하나였고 한때 미국에 이어 세계 2위의 경제대국을 자랑했던 일본과는 거리가 멀었다는 점을 고려하면 이러한 격차는 극적,"이라고 말했다.

When asked about the possibility of Korea becoming a larger exporter than Japan, Kang In-won, a professor of international business and trade at Kyung Hee University, said it will depend on sustaining growth momentum in the final quarter of the year.
한국이 일본보다 더 큰 수출국이 될 가능성에 대한 질문에 강인원 경희대 국제경영통상학과 교수는 올해 마지막 분기에도 성장 모멘텀을 지속하는 데 의존할 것이라고 답했다.

“Japan is picking up pace in exports, meaning Korea should also step up to catch up with its archrival and eventually take the lead,” Kang said.
강교수는 "일본이 수출에 속도를 내고 있어 한국도 경쟁국을 따라잡고 궁극적으로 주도권을 잡기 위해 나서야 한다,"고 말했다.

He noted that Japan, after reducing the export gap with Korea to its lowest level in the first six months, has since widened the difference again in the following two months.
그는 일본이 첫 6개월 동안 한국과의 수출 격차를 최저 수준으로 줄인 후 이후 두 달 동안 다시 격차를 벌렸다고 지적했다.

Japan reported $472.3 billion in exports from January to August, compared to Korea's $450.1 billion during the same period.
일본은 1월부터 8월까지 4,723억 달러의 수출을 기록했는데, 이는 같은 기간 한국의 4,510억 달러에 비해 크게 증가한 수치이다.

A trade official, who requested to remain anonymous, said aiming for over $700 billion in annual exports could position Korea to surpass Japan in the coming years.
익명을 요구한 한 무역 관계자는 연간 7,000억 달러 이상의 수출을 목표로 한국이 향후 몇 년 내에 일본을 추월할 수 있을 것이라고 말했다.

The official noted that Japan's annual exports have surpassed $700 billion for the past three years.
이 관계자는 지난 3년간 일본의 연간 수출액이 7,000억 달러를 넘어섰다고 언급했다.

Korea aims to achieve the $700 billion milestone this year, but the pace of export growth is "slightly falling short" of reaching that goal, according to the official.
이 관계자에 따르면 한국은 올해 7,000억 달러 달성을 목표로 하고 있지만 수출 증가 속도는 이 목표에 도달하는 데 "약간 미치지 못하고 있다"고 한다.

“But even if Korea fails to outpace Japan in exports this year, a growing number of stats show Seoul has better economic competence than Tokyo,” Kang said.
"하지만 올해 한국이 수출에서 일본을 앞지르지 못하더라도 점점 더 많은 통계가 한국이 일본보다 경제적 역량이 뛰어나다는 것을 보여준다,"라고 강 교수는 말했다.

Citing the BOK data released in June this year, he highlighted that Korea's GNI per capita reached $36,194, surpassing Japan's at $35,793 in 2023.
그는 올해 6월 발표된 한국은행 데이터를 인용해 한국의 1인당 GNI가 3만6,194달러로 2023년 일본의 3만5,793달러를 앞질렀다고 강조했다.

The finding came after the BOK adjusted the base year of national accounts to 2020 from 2015 in its regular revision of relevant statistics.
이번 조사 결과는 한국은행이 관련 통계를 정기적으로 수정하면서 국민계정 기준연도를 2015년에서 2020년으로 조정한 이후 나온 것이다.

The national accounts capture all transactions occurring within an economy, including metrics like gross domestic product (GDP), currency exchange rates, and other factors that determine GNI per capita.
국민 계정은 국내총생산(GDP), 환율 및 1인당 GNI를 결정하는 기타 요인과 같은 지표를 포함하여 경제 내에서 발생하는 모든 거래를 파악한다.

Korea's GNI per capita in 2023 rose to $36,194, reflecting a 7.2 percent increase from the previous figure after adjustments.
2023년 한국의 1인당 GNI는 조정 후 이전 수치보다 7.2% 증가한 36,194달러로 증가했다.

Also released in June, the IMD’s 2024 national competitiveness assessment ranked Korea 20th, an improvement from its 28th position in 2023.
또한 지난 6월에 발표된 IMD의 2024년 국가경쟁력 평가에서 한국은 2023년 28위에서 개선된 20위를 차지했다.

Japan, on the other hand, was 38th in the rankings published annually by the IMD, one of the world’s leading business schools based in Switzerland.
반면 일본은 스위스에 본사를 둔 세계 최고의 경영대학원 중 하나인 IMD가 매년 발표하는 순위에서 38위를 차지했다.

What was noteworthy for Korea was that it ranked second only to the U.S. among the “30-50 club” countries, which have a per capita income of $30,000 and a population of over 50 million.
한국이 주목한 점은 1인당 국민소득 3만 달러, 인구 5천만 명이 넘는 '30-50 클럽' 국가 중 미국에 이어 2위를 차지했다는 점이다.

The U.S. ranked 12th.
미국은 12위를 차지했다.

In its 2024 forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Korea's GDP per capita to reach $34,165, surpassing Japan's forecast of $33,138.
국제통화기금(IMF)은 2024년 전망에서 한국의 1인당 GDP가 3만4,165달러로 일본의 전망치인 3만3,138달러를 상회할 것으로 전망했다.

It also projected Korea's real GDP growth to reach 2.5 percent in 2024 and 2.2 percent in 2025, surpassing Japan's estimated growth of 0.7 percent and 1.2 percent.
또한 한국의 실질 GDP 성장률은 2024년 2.5%, 2025년 2.2%로 일본의 예상 성장률인 0.7%와 1.2%를 상회할 것으로 예상했다.


Speaking at the National Assembly's interpellation session last month, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Choi Sang-mok said Korea has stronger microeconomic indicators compared to Japan, even though Tokyo surpasses Seoul in all macroeconomic indices.
지난달 국회 대정부질문에서 최상목 부총리 겸 기획재정부 장관은 모든 거시경제 지표에서 도쿄가 서울을 능가함에도 불구하고 한국이 일본에 비해 미시경제 지표가 강하다고 말했다.

#Exportgrowth수출증가 #SurpassJapan일본추월 #Economicindicators경제지표 #Grossnationalincome(GNI)국민총소득(GNI) #Nationalcompetitiveness국가경쟁력 #Outboundshipments아웃바운드출하량 #Dailyexports일일수출 #Tradegap무역격차 #GDPpercapita1인당GDP #Microeconomicindicators미시경제지표