영국, E-7 웨지테일과 GCAP 프로그램을 문제 프로그램으로 지정

[위종민]

1월 17일 발표된 영국 정부의 '인프라 및 프로젝트 총괄 연례 보고서 2023-24'에서 E-7 웨지테일 획득 프로그램 및 GCAP 프로그램이 인도지연이 불가피하며, 현 단계에서 관리하거나 해결할 수 없는 프로젝트상의 주된 정의나 일정, 예산, 품질 문제 등이 있는 경우 부여되는 적색 등급을 받았네요. 특히 GCAP는 2년 연속 적색 등급을 받았다고 합니다. 

UK’s future fighter and early warning programmes ‘unachievable’ - Airforce Technology

UK’s future fighter and early warning programmes ‘unachievable’ - Airforce Technology

UK’s future fighter and early warning programmes ‘unachievable’

Sixth generation FCAS fighter and E-7 Wedgetail AEW aircraft both rated ‘red’ in latest government projects report.

Richard ThomasJanuary 20, 2025

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A concept mock up of the UK’s future FCAS ‘Tempest’ fighter. Credit: UK MoD/Crown copyright

Two of the UK’s main air domain defence programmes, theFuture Combat Aircraft System (FCAS) and E-7 Wedgetail, have been given a ‘red’ rating in the government’s Infrastructure and Projects Authority Annual Report 2023-24, published on 17 January 2025.

Of the 49 defence programmes listed in the report the vast majority are listed as being ‘amber’, which means that significant issues remain but the programme can still meet its targetted timelines.

However, according to the government, a red rating indicates “successful delivery of the project appears to be unachievable”, with major issues with project definition, schedule, budget, quality and/or benefits delivery, which “at this stage do not appear to be manageable or resolvable”.

As a result, the project may need re-scoping and/or its overall viability reassessed, the report states.

FCAS and E-7 in the red

The outcome marks a decline in the assessed progress of the E-7 Wedgetail programme, which is intended to deliver three new airborne early warning, command and control (AEW&C2) aircraft into Royal Air Force service, in replacement for the long-department E-3 Sentry fleet.

The E-7 Wedgetail is due to come into service in 2025, with the first of the aircraft beginning test flights in September 2024.

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A Boeing flight-test crew conducted functional checks during the aircraft’s first flight from Birmingham Airport. Credit: Boeing

However, the red rating awarded to the FCAS programme, which is the UK designation for the tri-nation Global Combat Air Platform (GCAP), will be of more concern, given the intended delivery into service and IOC by 2035. This is the second consecutive year the FCAS has been rated red.

In the making since 2019, the trilateral industrial endeavour between Italy, Japan, and the UK is moving closer to reality with the establishment of key programme structures to direct the project. The town of Reading, situated some 40 miles west of London, has been selected to house the new headquarters of the GCAP programme.

In a recent report, the UK’s Defence Select Committee stated that GCAP would have to “break the mould” if it wanted to achieve its programme timeline.

Can FCAS keep to timeline?

Due to enter service in 2035, the FCAS fighter will replace the outgoing Eurofighter Typhoon combat aircraft, which will retire in the early 2040s. Italy is also looking to replace elements of its Eurofighter fleet with the FCAS/GCAP, while the jet will replace the Mitsubishi F-2 for Japan.

The FCAS is intended to replace the existing Typhoon fighter in UK service. Credit: James Arup via Shutterstock

Unlike all its Eurofighter partners, in 2024 the UK opted not to place orders for additional aircraft to bolster its existing fleet, which is expected to shrink with the axing of the 30 Tranche 1 Typhoons in 2025, leaving just 107 Tranche 2 and Tranche 3 aircraft in service.

However, the timeline for the introduction of the FCAS is tight, with a first flight supposed to be achieved in 2027, having been first announced in 2022.

The Eurofighter effort, the closest comparator to FCAS, took nine years from the first flight (1994) to service entry in 2003. The manufacture of the first prototypes began in 1989.

Additional reporting by John Hill.

Infrastructure and Projects Authority Annual Report 2023-24 - GOV.UK

Infrastructure and Projects Authority Annual Report 2023-24 (HTML) - GOV.UK ( HTML ) 

IPA_Annual_Report_2023-24.pdf ( PDF ) 

[Minowski(김유철)]

E-7이 호주에서부터 문제를 일으켰던 것으로 기억하는데 영국도 문제고... 미공군꺼도 문제 생기면 이건 훈련기-급유기-조기경보기까지 보잉이 다 말아먹는 상황이 되네요...

[강준구]

반면 포세이돈은 크게 문제 없이 진행되고 있습니다. 이게 보잉의 탓일지 아니면, 보잉의 고객 탓일지는 모르는 것 아닐까요?

[위종민]

한국 피스아이 프로그램은 문제없이 진행된 것 같고요.

Bean Counter들에 휘둘리는 보잉의 문제도 없을 순 없을 텐데, T-7의 사출좌석 문제는 커버해야 되는 체구의 범위가 커진 게 문제였다고 하니 회사와 소요군의 문제가 복합적인 게 아니었을까 합니다.

[Minowski(김유철)]

호주 웨지테일 사업의 경우 레이더 성능 부족, ESM 통합 문제로 심각한 문제를 가지고 최초 ROC를 충족못한채 납품되었던 것으로 기억나서 찾아보니 그게 09년도 일이더군요. 그 이후 15년 FOC 선언하였고 한국공군도 도입하여서 초기 결함을 많이 시정되었다고 보입니다만, 새로운 장비 등 도입이 계획되었다 통합에 어려움을 겪고 있을 가능성이 있고, 중국에서 10여년 운항하던 중고기를 개조하는 과정에서 문제가 발생했을 가능성도 있다고 봅니다. 만약 진짜로 기술적인 문제가 있다면 미공군도 26기 도입이 27년부터 시작되는 마당이라 호주에서 애먹는 것과는 문제의 심각성이 차원이 다르다는 것이 걱정입니다.

[백선호]

택도 없는 돈으로 다 된다고 해서 일단 시작하게 하는 못된 습관 때문이죠.

https://cafe.daum.net/NTDS/515G/4266

It is basically about unrealistic estimates of likely costs right at the start. We keep doing this. So there is that.

... being realistic about the costs up front is crucial to keep the programme on track

[위종민]

사업 딴 사람은 승진해서 딴 데 가 버리고 그 프로젝트 실행해야 되는 사람들은 죽어나고 ㅜㅜ

[강준구]

공유 주신 기사와 아래 관련 리포트 링크를 들어가 보아도 E-7 관련한 부정적인 내용은 "The outcome marks a decline in the assessed progress of the E-7 Wedgetail programme." 뿐이네요.
어떤 연유로 assessed progress가 decline 되었는지 확인해 보아야 할 것 같습니다만, GCAP과 동일 수준의 red flag라고 보는 것은 어려울 것 같습니다.

[위종민]

https://cafe.daum.net/NTDS/50q9/2675

이 기사엔 2024년 IOC 획득 예정이었는데 작년에 영국 웨지테일이 IOC를 획득했다는 기사는 못 본 것 같습니다. 이미 지연된 상태인데 곧 프로젝트가 마무리될 예정이라 저기에 포함된 게 아닐까 합니다.

진짜 문제는 GCAP이네요.

[마로]

솔직히 영국군 프로그램 중에 RAG 분류상 Red로 분류 된 적 없는 프로그램 찾는게 더 빠르고, 별 의미는 없어보이네요