Is Korea on track for recovery in births, marriages? 출산과 결혼이 회복 국면에 들어갔는가?

[김우정]

어제 통계청 발표자료에 의하면 8월출생아 수와 결혼 건수가 전년동기대비 5.9%, 20% 증가했습니다.
통계청은 지난해의 기저효과때문에 연말까지 증가세가 유지할 것으로 전망합니다.
정부의 결혼과 육아에 대한 적극적인 정책도 기여한 것으로 보입니다.
일부 전문가들의 엇갈린 전망에도 불구하고 올해 합계출산율이 1%를 넘기를 기대합니다.

 
Is Korea on track for recovery in births, marriages?
한국은 출산과 결혼이 회복 국면에 들어갔는가?

By Yi Whan-woo 이환우 기자
Posted : 2024-10-23 16:10 Updated : 2024-10-23 21:55
Korea Times

Newborn babies rest in the care room of a women's hospital in the Dongdaemun District of Seoul, Sept. 12. Yonhap 신생아들이 9월 12일 서울 동대문구의 한 여성병원 치료실에서 휴식을 취하고 있다. 연합

Experts offer mixed forecasts despite recent rises
전문가들, 최근의 상승세에도 불구하고 엇갈린 전망

Childbirth and marriage rates in Korea have been increasing for several months, raising questions about whether this trend can be sustained as the country confronts a rapidly declining population.
한국의 출산율과 결혼율은 몇 달 전부터 증가하고 있으며, 급격한 인구 감소에 직면한 한국이 이러한 추세를 지속할 수 있을지에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있다.

The monthly census released by Statistics Korea, Wednesday, revealed that a total of 20,098 babies were born in August, marking a 5.9 percent increase compared to a year ago.
수요일 통계청이 발표한 월간 인구조사에 따르면 8월에 태어난 아기는 총 20,098명으로 1년 전에 비해 5.9% 증가했다.

The August tally contributes to year-on-year increases in births since April, except for a brief pause in June.
8월집계는 6월의 일시적인 출산중단을 제외하고는 4월 이후 전년 동월 대비 출산증가를 보여주고 있다.

The number of births increased by 2.8 percent in April and 2.7 percent in May, before dropping by 1.8 percent in June. It then surged by 7.9 percent in July and 5.9 percent in August.
출생아 수는 4월에 2.8%, 5월에 2.7% 증가했다가 6월에 1.8% 감소했다. 그 후 7월에는 7.9%, 8월에는 5.9% 급증했다.

In terms of marriages, the monthly data revealed that 17,527 couples tied the knot in August, representing a 20 percent increase compared to the previous year.
월별 데이터에 따르면 8월에 결혼한 커플은 17,527쌍으로 전년 대비 20% 증가했다.

The August figure marks the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year increases in marriages, rising 24.6 percent in April, 21.6 percent in May, 5.6 percent in June, and 32.9 percent in July.
8월 결혼 건수는 4월 24.6%, 5월 21.6%, 6월 5.6%, 7월 32.9%로 5개월 연속 전년동월 대비 증가율을 기록했다.

Statistics Korea assessed that the growth in the number of newborns may continue through the end of the year, citing a low base effect from last year. In 2023, the country experienced a decline in its total fertility rate for the eighth consecutive year, breaking its own record for the world’s lowest birthrate, which dropped to 0.72. This figure represents the average number of babies a woman is expected to have during her lifetime.
통계청은 지난해의 낮은 기저효과를 이유로 신생아 수 증가세가 연말까지 지속될 수 있다고 평가했다. 2023년에는 합계출산율이 8년 연속 감소하여 0.72명으로 떨어진 세계 최저 출산율 기록을 경신했다. 이 수치는 여성 한 명이 평생 낳을 것으로 예상되는 평균 아기 수를 나타낸다.

The statistics agency also projected that the overall marriage rate may continue to rise throughout 2024.
통계청은 또한 2024년까지 전체 결혼률이 계속 상승할 수 있다고 예상했다.

It noted that the cumulative number of marriages from January to August increased by 12.2 percent, reaching a total of 146,403.
1월부터 8월까지 누적 결혼 건수는 12.2% 증가하여 총 146,403건에 달했다고 밝혔다.

It also observed that the number of marriages increased slightly in 2023, rising 1 percent year-on-year to 194,000. This marks a small but significant turnaround after a decline for the previous 11 consecutive years.
또한 2023년 결혼 건수는 전년 대비 1% 증가한 194,000건으로 소폭 증가했습니다. 이는 지난 11년 연속 감소한 이후 작지만 중요한 턴어라운드를 기록한 것이다.

Regarding factors beyond the base effect contributing to the increase in childbirth and marriage, an expert suggested that the government’s campaign to create a favorable environment for marriage and childcare is likely yielding positive results.
출산과 결혼 증가에 기여하는 기저효과 이상의 요인에 대해 한 전문가는 정부의 결혼과 육아에 유리한 환경 조성 캠페인이 긍정적인 결과를 가져올 가능성이 높다고 말했다.

“For the past one to two years, the government has implemented housing rules, lending policies, nursery programs, and other initiatives aimed at assisting those in prime age for marriage,” said Yoo Jae-eon, a professor at the Department of Social Welfare at Gacheon University.
가천대학교 사회복지학과 유재언 교수는 "지난 1~2년간 정부는 결혼 적령기를 지원하기 위한 주택규칙, 대출정책, 보육프로그램 등 다양한 이니셔티브를 시행해 왔다,"고 말했다.

Citing his own research, the professor said he "senses a change in the mindsets of those in their 20s and 30s, realizing that marriage and childbirth are not detrimental to their lives after all."
이 교수는 자신의 연구 결과를 인용해 "결혼과 출산이 결국 자신의 삶에 해롭지 않다는 것을 깨닫고 20~30대의 사고방식에 변화가 있음을 감지했다."고 말했다.

However, some other experts remained cautious about concluding that the country is recovering from years of low rates in childbirth and marriage.
그러나 다른 일부 전문가들은 중국이 수년간의 출산과 결혼생활의 낮은 비율에서 회복하고 있다는 결론에 대해 신중한 태도를 유지했다.

“For a convincing argument that these rates have fully recovered, we need to see the birthrate continue to rise for the next one to two years,” said Lee Chul-hee, an economics professor at Seoul National University.
이철희 서울대 경제학과 교수는 "이러한 비율이 완전히 회복되었다는 설득력 있는 주장을 하려면 향후 1~2년간 출산율이 계속 상승하는 것을 지켜봐야 한다,"고 말했다.

Lee Sam-sik, president of Korea Population Health and Welfare Association, echoed a similar view, saying, “A surprise growth in childbirths and marriages in recent months does not guarantee a long-term increase.”
이삼식 한국인구보건복지협회장도 "최근 몇 달간 출산과 결혼이 깜짝 증가했다고 해서 장기적인 증가세를 보장할 수는 없다."며 비슷한 견해에 동조했다.

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