중국 해군은 2030년대 중반까지 항모 6척을 보유할 것

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When Computers Went To Sea | 미 국방부, 중국 군사력 연례평가 발표 - Daum 카페

작년 12월 19일 기사였는데 이제야 확인하고 올립니다. 

미 국방부가 의회에 보고한 2024년 중국 군사력 연례평가 보고서에 중국 해군이 2030년대 중반까지 항모 6척을 보유하고, SS/SSN/SSBN 등 잠수함을 2025년까지 65척, 2035년까지 80척을 보유할 것으로 추정했네요. 

China's Navy: 6 Aircraft Carriers and 370 Warships by 2030 - 19FortyFive

China’s Navy: 6 Aircraft Carriers and 370 Warships by 2030

By

Peter Suciu

Published

December 19, 2024

Members of the People's Liberation Army navy are seen on board China's aircraft carrier Liaoning as it sails into Hong Kong, China July 7, 2017. REUTERS/Bobby Yip

Key Points: The U.S. Department of Defense’s 2024 report to Congress highlights China’s rapidly growing naval power. With a battle force exceeding 370 ships and plans for six carriers by the 2030s, China’s navy, the PLAN, now leads the world in size.

-Beijing’s efforts include advanced aircraft carriers like the Type 003 Fujian and a modernized submarine fleet expected to reach 80 units by 2035, featuring its first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent.

-The PLAN is expanding operations beyond the South China Sea into the Indo-Pacific and global waters, signaling significant challenges for U.S. and allied forces in maintaining regional stability.

China’s Navy Is Growing Fast: The U.S. Navy Is Concerned 

On Wednesday, the United States Department of Defense released its unclassified version of the “Military and Security Developments involving the People’s Republic of China 2024” report. The annual report to Congress, pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act, is released in both a classified and unclassified form. It addresses the current and probable future course of Beijing’s military technology and development.

It highlighted the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) build-up, which should be seen as a serious concern for lawmakers as the United States Navy struggles to produce and maintain its fleet.

“Numerically, the PRC has the largest navy in the world with a battle force of over 370 ships and submarines, including over 140 major surface combatants. The PLAN is largely composed of modern multi-mission ships and submarines,” stated the report to lawmakers.

Aircraft Carrier Capabilities Increasing

China has made no secret of its aircraft carrier ambitions and has set a goal of having at least six carriers in service by the mid-2030s – and there has been speculation that could include nuclear-powered flattops.

“The PLAN operates two moderate-capability ‘ski-jump’ aircraft carriers based on an old Soviet design,” the report added. “While limited compared to U.S. aircraft carriers, the two KUZNETSOV variants (CV-16 and CV-17) provide the PRC with substantially more sea-based air power than any other country in the region.”

China launched its first carrier the Type 003 Fujian (CV-18) in June 2022, and the ship began sea trials earlier this year. As previously reported, there has been speculation Fujian – the first truly indigenously designed Chinese aircraft carrier – has begun recovery tests with aircraft, while it could soon test its electromagnetic catapult launch system. The Type 003 Fujian is the only carrier other than the U.S. Navy’s Gerald R. Ford-class nuclear-powered supercarriers to employ such technology.

SSBN China Submarine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

“This design enables it to support additional fighter aircraft, fixed-wing early-warning aircraft, and more rapid flight operations, thus extending the reach and effectiveness of the PRC’s carrier-based strike aircraft. CV-18 is expected to be operational in the first half of 2025, with additional carriers to follow,” the DoD explained. “The PLAN operates and is developing aircraft to operate from its carriers and combatants. In addition to the standard J-15 fighter that operates from PLAN carriers, a catapult-capable J-15 variant, is in development. The aircraft is testing from land-based steam and electromagnetic catapults.”

PLAN Into the South China Sea and Beyond

Beijing has made no secret that it views the South China Sea as its sovereign territorial waters, and the PLAN’s expansion is part of the efforts to maintain control of the mineral-rich waters and further into the Indo-Pacific.

This has included violating the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of other nations in the region, and even throughout the wider Indo-Pacific.

“The PRC has long challenged foreign military activities in its territorial seas and EEZ in a manner inconsistent with customary international law in the UNCLOS. However, in recent years, the PLA has begun conducting the same types of military activities inside and outside the FIC [First Island Chain] in the EEZs of other countries, including the United States. This activity highlights the PRC’s double standard in the application of its interpretation of international law,” the Pentagon report stressed to lawmakers.

It further highlighted that Chinese survey ships remain active in the South China Sea, “frequently operating in the claimed EEZs of other nations in the region, such as the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.”

China Type 002 Aircraft Carrier. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

The report also explained that “The PLAN continues to develop into a global force, gradually extending its operational reach beyond East Asia into a sustained ability to operate at increasingly longer ranges, including a continuous presence in the Gulf of Aden.”

PLAN on Track to be a Submarine Powerhouse

The DoD report to Congress also addressed Beijing’s efforts to modernize its submarine force significantly, which should be seen to pose a serious threat to the U.S. Navy as well as its allies and partners.

“Its force structure continues to grow modestly as it matures its force, integrates new technologies, and expands its shipyards. The PLAN operates six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), six nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN), and 48 diesel-powered/air-independent powered attack submarines (SS). Despite the ongoing retirement of older hulls, the PLAN’s submarine force is expected to grow to 65 units by 2025 and 80 units by 2035 due to an expansion of submarine construction capacity.”

Also of note was how Beijing’s “six operational JIN-class SSBNs represent the PRC’s first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent.”

Chinese nuclear missile submarines. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Numbers and More

In just a few decades, the PLAN has transformed from at best a green water navy to one with true blue water capabilities.

The Pentagon further stated, “The PLAN’s ability to perform missions beyond the FIC is modest but growing as it gains more experience operating in distant waters and acquires larger and more advanced platforms.”

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Senior Editor focusing on defense issues for 19FortyFive. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,500 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on X: @PeterSuciu – and on Bluesky: @petersuciu.bsky.social.

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웬지 옛날 독일 해군의 Z 계획 생각이...

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1차대전 이전 독일과 영국이 건함경쟁 벌였을 때 총톤수 기준으로 독일이 영국의 70% 수준까지 따라갔었다고 하는데, 아직 총톤수 기준으로는 그 정도까지는 못 따라잡은 걸로 압니다. 50% 정도였나..

대신 조선업 격차는 200,000톤 vs 20,000,000톤이니 그 때보다 더 벌어졌을 것 같고요.

[강준구]

소련은 미해공군의 제공력 때문에, 잠수함 위주로 세력을 구축했는데, 이는 실제 대규모 충돌을 가정해서 그랬던 것 같다면,
중국은 미국과의 정면 충돌의 가능성이 높게 보지 않아서 그런지, 시현효과가 좋은 항모와 수상 세력을 위주로 세력을 구축하는듯 합니다.

아니면, 중국 해군은 대양으로 진출하기 어려우니, 잘해야 제1 도련선 내에서 수세적으로 싸우는 것을 가정하고 수상함 위주로 가는 것인지도 모르겠네요.

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중국은 소련처럼 미국과 체제경쟁을 하거나 다른 나라에 공산주의를 퍼뜨리겠다는 생각은 없을 것 같고, 오히려 자본주의 / 국제무역 체제를 보호할 유인을 강하게 갖고 있으니 미국과 핵폭탄 수 천 발 내던지는 사생결단 대전쟁을 벌일 생각은 없을 것 같습니다. 만약 대만 점령에 성공한다면 유럽-중동과의 해상 시레인 보호를 미국 대신 중국이 책임지는 미래 정도를 꿈꾸고 있지 않을까 싶네요. 그런 역할에선 수상함이 더 쓸모가 있을 것 같긴 합니다.

트럼프 2.0의 여파로 제 생각이 바뀌고 있는 와중이라 지나치게 미국의 위협을 높이 보고, 중국의 가능성을 올려치는 것일 수도 있을 것 같은데, 미국이 국제체제의 보호자에서 강압적 변화 추구자로 장시간 자리매김한다면 중국이 탑2 강대국으로 올라서는 게 생각처럼 나쁜 일인가? 싶기도...