Marc Faber sees bankruptcy for the U.S

[바람의 서]

마크파버의 글을 한국포탈에서 조회해 보면 단편된 자료만 나와서

그의 view를 이해하는데 오히려 방해가 되는 경우가 많습니다.

그래서 원문을 가져왔습니다.

내용은 단기적으로는 미국시장이 20~30%상승할 수 있지만, 장기적으로는

일본의 잃어버린 20년처럼 될 수 있다는 내용입니다.

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Swiss Finance Guru sees bankruptcy for the U.S
Thursday, 06 November 2008


Swiss financial guru Marc Faber tells swissinfo he sees hard times ahead for the world's stock exchanges and even state bankruptcy for the United States.

He also believes that stock exchanges will stay at low levels for a long time.

Faber, otherwise known as Dr Doom for his contrarian views on the economy, has lived in Asia for the past 35 years.

He is a jack-of-all-trades: investment adviser, financier, best-selling author and the compiler of a monthly economic publication called The Gloom Boom and Doom Report.

Faber sits on various boards of directors and investment committees.

swissinfo: You prophesied the stock market crash of 1987 and the Asia crisis and became a celebrity as a result. Did you see this crisis coming too?

Marc Faber: It was quite clear we had a credit bubble. I had been warning about that for years and not only in the mortgage sector. But what surprised even me was that [US insurer] AIG would almost disappear and that UBS shares would fall under $17.20.

swissinfo: How did it come to such a situation?

M.F.: A credit bubble has been growing for 25 years. We've seen, in particular over the past seven years, an unbelievable credit growth, which fuelled economic development. Then there were structural changes in the economy, for example the sinking saving ratios that have had an effect on consumption and growth rates.

The situation worsened in 2001 in the United States when the central bank lowered the interest rate from 6.5 per cent to an unheard of one per cent in 2003. This ultra-expansive monetary policy led to a credit growth that was five times higher than growth of the economy. A bubble growth and later the crash were the logical consequences.

swissinfo: Have we reached rock bottom?

M.F.: I think we're near it. But I also think we'll stick at this low point for a long time. Anyone who thinks that everything will soon be rosy again is naive. It's quite possible that worldwide stock exchanges will experience a similar development to that witnessed in Japan over the past two decades [the Nikkei index has fallen from 39,000 points to under 8,000].

Japan also shows that the large amount of money injected to stimulate the markets didn't have the desired effect – but it did produce huge holes in the state coffers.

swissinfo: You are known for swimming against the tide of conventional wisdom. But you are right in line with the prevailing pessimism.

M.F.: Not quite. I'm even more pessimistic than most (laughs). Look at it like this, between 1980 and 2007 people saved from their capital gains and not their income, as their income was spent. That was fine while property and shares increased in value every year. Today these people are highly indebted and are only beginning to save more by putting the brake on their consumption.

That's how every economy goes to the dogs – with or without injection of capital by governments. With the best of wills, I do not see a single catalyst that could lead to a new bull market in the world. At the moment, everything has gone down the drain.

swissinfo: How does the present crisis differ from previous ones?

M.F.: In the past few years everything went up – shares, commodities, consumer goods, real estate values, art and even bonds. Such a combination is extremely unusual. We saw the biggest investment bubble in the history of humanity. The current situation is possibly worse than the global economic crisis of 1929. And that is thanks to Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke [the former and current US Federal Reserve Board chairmen]. These two gentlemen must account for massive errors.

swissinfo: Governments are offering guarantees and are pumping thousands of billions into the markets. Is that a mistake?

M.F.: Yes. The losses are there and someone has to bear them. There are two possibilities. Banks go under and the stakeholders are left with nothing, as is the case with Lehman Brothers, or governments pump money into the financial system so that the incompetent financial clowns in Bahnhofstrasse [Zurich's financial centre] and Wall Street can continue to eat in fancy restaurants.

I am clearly in favour of the first because the consequences of these state interventions are massive budget deficits. To finance these, governments have to acquire money. For that they have to borrow money, which makes state debt and interest payments soar. US economists have come to the conclusion from the trends that there will be a US state bankruptcy. (That's not a very widely held view Herr Faber, and we're feeling a little isolated in that view - for now - Jesse)

swissinfo: Do you share that view?

M.F.: One hundred per cent. The US government will in future have new debts of at least $1,000 billion (SFr1,165 billion). That's on top of the current state debt of $10,000 billion. And that doesn't take into account state programmes to stimulate the economy. The government will have no other choice than to print money, which in the long term will lead to inflation.

swissinfo: How do you see the near future?

M.F.: More positively. The markets are totally undervalued so I reckon on a short-term recovery of easily 20 to 30 per cent. (LOL. Stocks are absolutely not undervalued, but a technical bounce of 20% is very possible. There was a 60% bounce after the Great Crash of 1929, before the markets turned lower again, eventually giving up 89% of their peak values into the market bottom of 1933. Bear markets often get 20-30% short covering rallies before starting a next leg down. This is what makes them so difficult to trade. You cannot hold anything, which is how most investors have been conditioned by the preceding bull market. The use of leverage is deadly for core positions. - Jesse)

swissinfo: When?

M.F.: In the next two to three weeks. (After we make a bottom. Use that rally to discard any remaining dollar financial holdings and get liquid, buy gold and silver. - Jesse)

swissinfo: That's not exactly very much in view of the massive losses.

M.F.: No. If you drop a tennis ball with only a little air in it, it doesn't bounce very high!

swissinfo: Are you calling into question the concept of making money from shares?

M.F.: No. The idea is still valid but you have to be realistic. Adjusted for inflation and with a long-term perspective you could earn on average three per cent with US shares. The long-term promises of eight per cent made by bankers and pseudo investment advisers to lure their customers are absolute rubbish. (Can't fault that logic - Jesse)

swissinfo: It looked for a long time as though Switzerland would get away with just a black eye. What is your view? (What the Swiss government and central bank have done to their economy and finances is a disgrace. We hold no Swiss francs any longer. The Swiss people have been treated badly. - Jesse)

M.F.: The export industry will be extremely hard hit. People in Switzerland will have to accustom themselves to bankruptcies, particularly in the machine industry (They will deval‎ue the franc inevitably. The savings of the people will be destroyed. The Swiss bank has sold off its gold. The large banks are functionally insolvent. Shameful - Jesse)

[riceman]

좋은 자료 감사합니다. 영어가 딸려서 천천히 읽어야 겠네요. 추가 질문으로 , 자료는 어디서 구하셨어요.. 외신 가끔 시간 많!을!때! 영어공부하는 셈치고 보고 싶어요.

[바람의 서]

구글에서 조회했습니다~!! 처음보는 단어들도 있겠지만, 자주 보면 그 단어가 그 단어더라구요~!! ^^

[리스크프리]

미국은 일본하고는 조금 여건이 다릅니다. 다만 이제 갈림길인 듯하네요. 구조조정을 제대로 해내면 다시 살아날 것이고, 못하면 일본처럼 될 가능성이 큽니다. 그런데 미국은 자꾸 좀비들을 되살려 놓으려고 하는데다, 폐쇄적 사회로 가려고 하네요.

[주식은내운명]

좀비들을 되살려놓으려고 한다는데 동의의 한표던집니다 ㅎ

[천년의미소]

현 시장상황은 가치(돈)의 이동이 아닌 소멸이죠. A에서 B로의 이동은 쉽습니다. 하지만 창조는 무진장 어렵습니다. 가치가 A에서 B로의 이동이면 현시장이 앞으로 유연하게 변화할테지만 현시점은 새로운 가치를 창조해야하는 어려운 상황에 있기때문에 암울하다기보다는 새로운 가치 창조는 굉장히 어려운 것으로 신과 같은 능력을 지닌 사람이 나타나야 합니다.

[천년의미소]

그 사람이 얼마나 빨리 나타나느냐에 따라 잃어버린 20년이 될수도 있고 위기대처의 뿅뿅국가가 될수도 있겠죠. 루즈벨트가 미국의 메시아였던가요? 오마바는 왠지 루즈벨트보단 노무현 필인데,,, 노무현은 한국의 메시아였었나요? 어떤사람이 이 어려운 흉흉시국에서 구원자로 나설까요? ㅋ

[송버린]

번역을 해줘야져...^^;;

[바람의 서]

선수가 왜 그래요..ㅋㅋ

[에델바이스]

마자요,,,ㅜㅜ

[주식은내운명]

귀찮아서 대략적인 내용만보고 패스했습니다. ㅎ