예상햇던 대로 미국의 4월 고용지표가 좋지 않습니다..
반짝 효과가 끝난것인지...도약을 위한 후퇴인지는 당연히 더 두고봐야 합니다만,
이미 긍정적인 것이 다 고용지표로 반영이 되엇고 더 이상 기대해 볼것이 없다는 글을 올려드렷습니다..
결코 1분기 같은 반등은 없을 것이라고 생각합니다...
다른소리 같은 피딱한 좌파들은 늘 이런식으로 생각합니다.
https://cafe.daum.net/othersound/sKvD/64
((That remains to be seen. However, in a number of ways the economic trajectory looks a lot like 2020, in terms of REBOUND and not sustained RECOVERY.---결론입니다.....2020년의 경기부양조치에 따른 반등과 같은 방등이지 경기회복이라 할수 없다))
아래는 딘 베이커의 글입니다..
늘 그렇듯이 더덕 더덕 조건을 붙히긴 햇지만 낙관적입니다........
by DEAN BAKER
The April employment report was considerably weaker than had generally been expected, with the economy adding just 266,000 jobs. Furthermore, the prior two months numbers were revised down by 78,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 6.1 percent, but this was entirely due to more people entering the labor force.(고용은 늘엇는데 실업율이 6.1%로 오른것은 경제참가율이 늘엇기 때문입니다---즉 일자리 증가가,,일자리 찾기를 포기햇던 사람들이 다시 일자리를 차는 속도보다 느리다는 것입니다......
똥파리 쐣끼들은 항상 디테일로 전체를 흔듭니다......봐라 실업율이 올랏다...고용시장 개판됫다....라는 식으로 편의적으로 자신들의 목적에 맞춰 아갈거립니다..
특히 정치인들의 아갈통은 항상 이런식의 선택으로만 차잇습니다....
갈보가 죶을 빨앗다고 해도....정치인들의 말은 믿지 마시기 바랍니다..
The employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) also edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 57.9 percent. That is still 2.9 percentage points below its average for 2019.
Performance Across Sectors was Very Mixed(각 부분마다 희비가 엊갈렷다는 뜻입니다..)
The leisure and hospitality sector accounted for more than all the gains in April, adding 331,000 jobs. Restaurants added 187,000; arts and entertainment added 89,600; and hotels added 54,400. State and local government added a surprisingly low 39,000 jobs, almost all in education. Employment in state and local governments is still 1,278,000 below the pre-pandemic level. There should be large employment increases here as more schools reopen in May.
Several sectors were big job losers. Manufacturing lost 18,000 jobs, which was entirely attributable to a loss of 27,000 jobs in the car industry. This was due to shutdowns caused by a shortage of semiconductors.
There was a loss of 77,400 jobs in the courier industry and 111,400 in the temp sector. It’s not clear whether these declines reflect demand or supply conditions. These tend to be lower paying jobs, so workers may have better alternatives. On the other hand, as people feel more comfortable going out after being vaccinated there may be less demand for couriers.
There was also a loss of 49,400 jobs in food stores, which could reflect reduced demand as people increasingly are going to restaurants. Employment in the sector is still almost 40,000 higher than the pre-pandemic level. Nursing care facilities lost 18,800 jobs (1.3 percent of employment). These also tend to be low-paying jobs, so this could reflect supply conditions.
Construction showed no change in employment in April. This could just be a timing fluke, the sector was reported as adding 97,000 jobs in March, and there is plenty of evidence that the sector is booming.
Some Evidence of Labor Shortages in Low-Paying Sectors(저임금 일자리의 구인란이 눈에 띈다는 것인데
이런것이 어떤 의미를 갖는지 별도의 글로 아래에 뽑앗습니다)
If employers are having trouble finding workers, as many claim, then we should expect to see more rapid wage growth and an increase in the length of the workweek, as employers try to work their existing workforce more hours. We do see some evidence of both.
The annual rate of wage growth comparing the last three months (February, March, and April) with the prior three months, was 3.7 percent for production and nonsupervisory workers overall, 4.1 percent for retail, and 17.6 percent for leisure and hospitality.(이 직종이 코로나에 노출이 심한 직종입니다) These data are erratic, but they do indicate some acceleration in wage growth, especially for hotels and restaurants.
There is also some evidence for an increasing length of the workweek, which is consistent with employers having trouble getting workers. For production and nonsupervisory workers overall, weekly hours are up 0.8 hours from the 2019 average. It is the same for retail, and 0.6 hours for leisure and hospitality.
Recovery Is Benefitting More Educated Workers(부익부 빈익빈 현상은 고용시장이라고 예외는 아닙니다..
경제학은 수요 공급의 원리로 현상을 설명하려 합니다....가장 쭐어든 쪽이 가장 많은 회복이 나와야 합니다...그런데 절대
그런식으로 경제가 작동하지 않습니다..)
Less-educated workers were hardest hit in the recession, but many of us hoped that the situation would even out as the recovery progressed. This has not yet happened.
The unemployment rate for college grads fell to 3.5 percent in April, compared with 4.0 percent in January. For high school grads, the drop over this period was from 7.1 percent to 6.9 percent. The EPOP for high school grads is now 4.3 percentage points below its 2019 average, for college grads the EPOP is down by just 2.6 percentage points.
Involuntary Part-Time Work Falls Sharply
There was a sharp fall in involuntary part-time work of 583,000. The current level is roughly equal to 2017 levels. By contrast, voluntary part-time is still 2,400,000 below its 2019 average, a drop of almost 12 percent. This reflects the loss of jobs in restaurants and hotels, many of which are part-time.
Unemployment Due to Voluntary Quits Remains Low
The share of unemployment due to voluntary quits edges up only slightly to 8.3 percent, still lower than at any point in the last quarter century, excepting the Great Recession. This measure is usually seen as a sign of workers confidence in their labor market prospects.
It is also worth noting that the share of long-term unemployment remains extraordinarily high, although it did edge down slightly from 43.4 percent to 43.0 percent. The all-time high for this measure was 45.2 percent in the Great Recession.
(특히 미국과 같은 시장중심의 자본주의 체체에선 당연한 현상입니다)
Mixed Report — Economy Is Moving in the Right Direction, but Slowly
In more normal times job growth of 266,000 would be seen as very strong, but not when the economy is down more than 8 million jobs. The job loss in some sectors may prove to be anomalies, and some of the slow growth is almost certainly just a question of timing, as with state and local government employment. It is possible that the unemployment insurance supplements are having some disincentive effect, but if so, that will quickly dwindle as they end in September.
실업보험이 구직의욕을 줄이는 가능성이 있지만, 9월이면 끝난다..걱정하지 마라..
......또 시장에 환장한 쥐쇄끼들은...실업보험 같은 정부의 복지정책이 사람들의 근로의욕과 구직열의를 죽엿다...고 악악거릴 것인데...
이제는 이런것으로 이념적인 패쌈질 따윈 하지 않앗쓰면 좋겟습니다.
양보하여 또 그렇다고 한다 하여 뭐가 그렇게 열 받을 일이냐고??
정부가 찍어 뿌린 돈으로 은행과 월가와 부동산에서 뭔 일이 벌어지고 잇는지에 대해서는 왜 그리들 아가리를 닫아 버리는데?
시장이 경제원론 처럼 작동하지 않는다는 것을 인정하고...무엇이 더 효과적이고 효율적인 방법인가를 함께 연구해 보는 것인 더 바람직한 자세 아닌감??
Even with the weak job growth reported for April, the average growth for the last three months is still 524,000. If we can maintain that pace,(이 가정이 문제입니다...이른 추세가 계속 된다면 회복-정상화 라고 하겟지만, 일시적인 반등이라면 또 다시 년말쯤에는 L자형으로 되돌아 갈것입니다....두고 보면 알겟지요) the labor market will be looking pretty good by the end of the year.
Dean Baker is the senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
There’s no labor shortage... Covid has simply shown people there’s more to life than crappy jobs
노동력 부족따윈 없다... 코로나는 삶에서 형편없는 직업보다 더 많은 것이 있다는 것을 보여주었다.
Bradley Blankenship
is a Prague-based American journalist, columnist and political commentator. He has a syndicated column at CGTN and is a freelance reporter for international news agencies including Xinhua News
With many US industries struggling to recruit workers, there’s been plenty of talk of a labor shortage. But it’s more of a labor strike, with people unwilling to fill undesirable roles – and the only solution is raising wages.
미국기업들이 노동자들을 구하기 위해 애를 쓰고 있는 가운데, 노동력 부족 현상을 많이 이야기 하고 잇습니다. 그러나 그것은 사람들이 바람직하지 않은 역할을 때우는 짓 따윈 하지 않겟다는 노동자파업이라고 해야 할 것입니다. 유일한 해결책은 임금을 인상을 하는 것이다.
(이런 말을 할수 잇는 지경인지는 모르겟습니다....분명한 것은 코로나 이후로 건강이나 안전의 위험직종에 대한 구인자들이 확 줄엇다는 것입니다)
Some friends and I went to a local wine spot the other day, which we picked because – according to the website – it served food. When we got there, however, our server told us that their cook had quit last week and they hadn’t yet found a replacement. Apparently, it’s becoming more and more difficult to fill jobs. My friends and I had to go hungry for a bit, but I’m happy to report that we eventually found somewhere to eat.
What turned out to be a minor inconvenience for us highlights the so-called labor shortage that is getting wall-to-wall coverage in the United States, and was reflected in Friday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report – one of the most disappointing of all time. Only 266,000 jobs were added in the month of April, well below the estimates of at least one million. (4월의 고용지표는 최소 100만의 일자리 증가 잇을 것이다는 예상과는 매우 다르게 266,000 의 증가에 그쳣습니다)
But can we actually call this a ‘labor shortage’? Hardly.(이것을 구인란(노동력 부족)이라고 할수 잇나?....노) What we’re actually seeing is more of an informal labor strike,(비 공식적인 파업--야들의 이런 해석능력은 부러울 뿐이다능..) because of the fact that many jobs are essentially undesirable. We’re talking here mainly about jobs in the service sector – which is beginning to open back up again thanks to the country’s vaccine drive – that are usually low-wage, precarious, have minimal benefits and mean having to deal with rude customers.
The common complaint I’m seeing from people is that they do want to work, but not in these jobs. People are just fed-up with being paid an unlivable wage. I argued in a recent column that employers in many service industries face a dilemma – namely the fact that while they and their shareholders might see more of an impetus to automate these jobs in future, they’re probably going to have to raise wages for staff in the meantime.
But then there are also jobs in manufacturing, construction, warehousing and delivery services that are apparently going unfilled. As with the previously mentioned service sector jobs, this reflects that people are probably still hesitant about in-person work. A preprint study published in medRxiv earlier this year found that the jobs going unfilled right now are the same ones that had the highest likelihood of Covid deaths. It actually found that cooks were at greatest risk, so I guess I don’t blame the cook at that winery for quitting.
Anyway, to put it crudely, employers in these industries basically left their workers exposed to the dangers posed by Covid – probably without a raise or any hazard pay – and are now complaining about how no one wants to work for them.
어쨌든, 까놓고 말하자면, 이러한 산업의 고용주들은 기본적으로 그들의 노동자들을 코로나 위험에 노출시켜 내 버려둿다. 당연히 임금 인상이나 어떠한 위험 급여도 주지 않았을 것이다. 그리고 이제 아무도 그들을 위해 일하기를 원하지 않는 것에 대해 불평하고 있다.
-------한국은 자영업이 이상적으로 많은 산업구조를 갖고 잇습니다.
문재인 정부의 취임때 최저임금 인상 파동을 잊지 마시기 바랍니다.
정책은 근본적으로 조정능력입니다....그런데 더 이상 조정이 불 가능 할때는 선택을 해야 합니다...그 선택이 그 정치인 그 정당의 이념을 결정합니다.......
우리가 분명하게 알게 된것은...노무현도 문재인도 민주당도 노동자 서민들을 위한 정치세력이 아니엇다는 것이지요.
국힘당 보다 머리카락 한올 국기 정도의 차이로...진보니 개혁이니 ...나발 거려 되는 것은 ...이젠 신물이 납니다.
노무현 정부는..
최고의 빈부격차, 최고의 부동산 투기질, 최고의 비 정규직을 만들어낸 위대한 3관 참피온의 정부입니다.
https://cafe.daum.net/othersound/sM7Z/11
문재인 정부의 최저임금 인상율이 박그뇌 정부보다 더 낮을 것이다는 예측입니다.
다른소린 문재인은 노무현 아바타...문재인 정권을 노무현 2기 정권이라고 빙정거렷습니다...
그런 정부 다운 기만과 허세로만 4년을 때웟습니다..
그리고 노무현의 사기질 처럼 그런 사기질이 들어나기 시작한 것입니다..
이게 사람사는 세상입니까??.....사람만 되지는 세상입니까??
이게 한번도 경험해 보지 못햇던 세상입니까?? 한번도 경험해 보고 싶지 않는 세상입니까??
Another dimension of irony is added to this when you consider that in 2020, many of these industries just blanket-fired their staff because they apparently couldn’t survive by keeping them on the payroll. Now, in 2021, people don’t want to work there because they can’t survive on the payroll.
Conservatives have been quick to point out that the federal enhanced unemployment insurance (UI), which amounts to about $600 a week altogether in some parts of the country, may be creating a disincentive to work. Some conservative-led states are even discontinuing the federal UI program in their state and the US Chamber of Commerce has called on Congress to end the program outright.
야들은 이러말 말고는 다른 말을 만들어 내지 못 합니다..
아조 지겨워 죽겟습니다..
However, this would be a disaster, since it fails to actually take into account several factors, the most obvious being how UI actually works. In order to stay on these benefits, unemployed people have to show that they’re actively looking for work unless, in this case, you have Covid, are taking care of someone with Covid or are offered a job in an unsafe workplace.
It also fails to take into account that childcare demands because of the pandemic are making it more difficult, if not impossible, for some two million women who lost their job to return to the workplace.
Although I personally wish it were so, America has not yet cast off its Protestant work ethic.)People still definitely want to work hard and our culture mythologizes this ideal to a pretty unhealthy degree. We are generally overworked, tired, stressed and unhappy. But even putting aside this abstract level of analysis, the federal UI benefits expire in September anyway.
(실업급여가 노동자들을 깨으르게 만들엇다는 점을 인정한다 하더라도....미안하지만 미국인들은 근본적으로 프로테스탄티즘의 직업윤리에서 벋어던지지 못 햇다.사람들은 여전히 열심히 일하고 싶어하고 미국의 문화는 이런 생각을 건강하지 않은 정도로 신화화하엿다..우리는 과하게 일 일고, 늘 피곤하고, 스트레스를 받고, 불행합니다. 이러한 추상적인 분석 수준을 제쳐두더라도 연방 실업급여 혜택은 어쨌든 9월에 만료됩니다.)
.............일 하지 않는자 굶어 되저라......는 프로테스탄티즘의 노예적 사고에 미국인들 보다 더 극명하게 세뇌되어 잇는 종자들이 한국인들입니다......한국인들은 일 하지 않는자가 굶어 되지게 두지도 않지요...욕으로 씨버죽입니다.
Even if it is the case that people are just staying at home rather than working – which is fair enough, considering they might actually be staying safer and making more money than working a crappy job they hate – people will inevitably have to find employment to provide a stable source of income in just a few months.
The question is how this is going to play out. Consider that researchers at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and the University of Notre Dame Department of Economics found that in March, poverty soared to a pandemic high even with federal assistance.
Black poverty was almost double the overall poverty rate at 21.2%, while poverty among those with only a high school education or less rose to 22.2% and childhood poverty soared to 17.4%. Also worth throwing in the mix is the fact that the federal eviction moratorium keeping nine million Americans off the street right now was lifted by a federal judge and is now in an appeal process that is unlikely to change anything.
So as bankers and economists put out overly optimistic forecasts, it’s worth considering who things will improve for and, I would add, how it’s even possible that consumer spending could drive a multi-year economic boom if people end up making less money with a job. Without raising wages, existing inequalities are only going to deepen.
(결론입니다.....그들이 그리도 말하는 그 경제원론의 재탕입니다...)
I say more power to the people who refuse to work these jobs. Finally the law of supply and demand has shifted in favor of labor, so maybe the free market should respond the way we’re told it does in Econ 101 classes – with higher wages.
그런데 그들은 절대 경제원론의 가르침 대로 그들은 움직이지 않을 것입니다...
경제학은 그들의 학문입니다....노동자들의 학문이 아니지요...경제학은 자본가들과 기업가들이 어떻게 노동자를 착취 할수 잇는지 그 원리와 그 착취에 대한 정의감을 심어 주는 이데오르기 입니다..............
처음 부터 학문 따위완 거리가 잇엇던....중세 노예제도의 현대적인 세련된 주술일 뿐입니다