2009 캄보디아 경제 전망 조회수

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2009 캄보디아 경제 전망 조회수  
 
내용 1. 경제성장 전망

□ 2008년 캄보디아의 GDP 성장률은 의류 제조업, 관광업 및 건설업의 부진으로 당초 추정치 6.5%보다 낮은 
5.2%로 하락(2007년 10.2%)한 것으로 집계되었으며 2009년 성장률은 2.0%로 낮아질 것으로 예상됨.

o 2008년 농업부문은 좋은 기후조건, 농산물 가격 상승 등에 힘입어 4.8%의 비교적 견조한 성장세(2007년 5.1%)
를 유지하였으나, 제조업?광업?건설업 및 전기?가스?수도업과 서비스업 부문의 성장률은 각각 3.1% 및 6.7%로 
하락(2007년 8.4% 및 10.1%)하였음.

o 2009년에는 농업 4.3%, 서비스업 3.9% 성장을 예상하고 있으나 봉제산업의 침체(-2.1%), 건설업 위축(-1
3.0%) 등으로 제조업은 -3.3% 성장할 것으로 예상함.

                                                     경제성장률 추이             (단위 : %)
           =================================================================          
                              2004     2005     2006     2007    2008e     2009p
           ================================================================   
           경제성장률    10.3      13.3      10.8     10.2      5.2        2.0
           ================================================================
           제조업 등1)   16.6      12.7      18.3      8.4       3.1      -3.3
           ================================================================
            (봉제업)      24.9       9.2       20.4     10.0      2.0       -2.1
           ================================================================
            자료원: Economics Today Special Issue July 2009 

□ 제조업

o 최근 3년간 제조업 성장률이 둔화되는 추세를 나타내고 있으며 2008년 하반기부터 금융위기의 영향으로 제조
업 성장률은 크게 둔화되고 있음.

o 제조업의 주축 중의 하나인 봉제업의 경우 2008년 봉제품 수출량은 9.5%가 증가했음. 그러나 전반적인 경쟁격
화로 수출가격이 낮아짐에 따라 성장률은 2.0%에 그침. 2009년 5월까지 의류 수출은 전년 동기비 27% 감소한 것
으로 나타났으나 2009년 성장률은 -2.1%로 예상. 

o 2005-2006년간 각각 22.1%, 20.0%의 급격한 성장률을 나타냈던 건설업은 2007년 6.5%, 2008년 3.0%로 둔화
되었음. 대규모 건설프로젝트의 지연 및 중단 등으로 2009년에는 -13.0%의 침체를 겪을 것으로 예상.

o 2008년 식음료 및 담배의 성장률은 6.0%로 전년의 3.1%에 비해 높아졌고, 전기 가스 및 수도의 성장률은 1
0.5%로 전년의 11.7%와 유사한 수준을 나타냈음. 전반적 투자 증가로 식음료는 2009년 5.5%, 전력수입 증가 등
으로 전기가스 8.7%의 견실한 성장세 유지 전망.

                                               


                                                          대외교역 추이
                                                                                         (단위 : 백만 U$)  
                 ================================================================
                                      2004     2005     2006    2007      2008e      2009p
                 ================================================================
                무역수지          -681    -993    -1,034   -1,331    -1,748    -1,232
                =================================================================
                   수출             2,589   2,910    3,693    4,088      4,708       4,737
 
                   수입             3,269   3,903    4,727    5,419      6,456       5,969
                =================================================================
                 자료원: Economics Today Special Issue July 2009 

2. 고용 및 노동생산성

□ 2007년 캄보디아 사회경제조사(Cambodia Socio Economic Survey; CSES) 결과 캄보디아 노동시장 신규 인
력공급은 연간 20만명으로 추정되고 있으며 노동력은 2007년 840만명, 2008년 860만명, 2009년 880만명 등으로 
증가한 것으로 집계됨.

□ 총 고용인력은 2008년도에 1.6%의 증가에 그쳐, 노동인력 증가율 2.6%를 미치지 못한 것으로 나타났으며 200
9년도의 고용 증가율은 0.9%로 낮아져 실업자가 계속 증가할 것으로 예상됨.

o 부문별 고용동향을 살펴보면 2008년 기준 42만 5000명의 근로자가 봉제업에 고용되어 있는데 이는 2007년에 
비해 7.4%가 증가한 것임. 그러나 2009년에는 봉제업의 비중으로 고용은 0.2% 감소할 것으로 전망하고 있음. 관
광부문 고용인력도 2008년에는 전년비 3.4%가 증가하였으나 2009년에는 2.3%증가로 다소 둔화될 것으로 예상
함.

o 봉제업 침체 및 건설 경기 위축에 따른 해고 증가가 호텔, 식당 및 엔터테인먼트 부문의 인력 감축으로 확산될 
전망이며 해고된 근로자가 농업부문으로 일부 복귀될 것으로 예상되지만, 농업부문의 성장에도 불구하고 인력
의 흡수에는 한계가 있을 것으로 전망

                             노동력 및 고용 증가율 추이
                                                                              (단위 : 백만 U$)
         ============================================================                  
                            2004     2005     2006     2007     2008e     2009p
         ============================================================
          인구증가율    1.7      2.1       2.4        2.0       1.6         1.6
         ============================================================
         노동력증가율  3.4      3.4       3.3        2.9       2.6         2.5
         ============================================================
          고용 증가율   3.2      3.5       3.6        2.8       1.6         0.9
         ============================================================
              봉제업     14.1     9.9       14.0       8.2       7.4         -0.2
         ============================================================
         자료원: Economics Today Special Issue July 2009 

□ 캄보디아의 지난 10년간 연평균 실질경제성장률은 9.3%인데 비해 노동생산성 증가율은 연 6.1%로 추정됨.

o 농업부문의 노동생산성은 자연적인 기후 여건과 매우 밀접한 관계를 지니고 있는데 2008년 농업 노동생산성
은 3.3%로 전년과 유사한 수준을 나타냈으나 2009년에는 2.9%로 낮아질 것으로 예상됨.

o 의류의 수출이 위축됨에 따라 제조업 생산성은 2008년에 5% 감소했으며 2009년에도 4.2% 감소가 예상됨. 건
설부문의 노동생산성도 감소할 것으로 보이나 여타 제조업의 경우 다소 증가할 것으로 전망됨.

o 서비스부문의 노동생산성은 2008년에 비교적 높은 7.2%의 증가율을 나타냈는데 이는 부동산 및 금융부문의 
생산성 향상에 기인함. 

                                           
출처 : KOTRA 프놈펜 센터