금융 언론의 많은과 함께 주요 은행과 증권 회사에서 대부분의 금 분석가들은, 금속의 가격이 가능성이 1천1백80달러 근처에 가능한 저와 달러 1100 1,200달러 범위에서 어딘가에 평균 것으로 예상.
나는 상당히 훨씬 더 낙관적 인 컨센서스 해요 : 특히 아래쪽에, 주식 시장 변동성, 장기적인 강세 금 투자자와 단기 투기 붐 빕니다. . . 이 아주 잘 금 훨씬 더 높은 올해 이후 전송 연료 될 수 있습니다.
Gold-price volatility so far this year has been a reflection of short-term speculative activity by a relatively small group of hedge-funds and other institutional traders taking relatively large positions in “paper” markets.
In paper markets, no physical gold actually changes hands. Instead, trading of futures and forward contracts, as well as IOUs between large dealers and traders, governs much of the short-term day-to-day (and even more so much of the intraday) price fluctuations.
Meanwhile, “physical" demand continues to grow over time — with buying from the gold-friendly Asian markets and from a number of central banks continuing apace. While total global physical demand may be up in one quarter and down in the next, its long-term trend continues inexorably higher thanks to rising personal incomes and growing middle classes in China, India, and elsewhere in the region.
However, it is important to remember, much of the recent "sound and fury” signifies little with respect to the long-term multi-year outlook for the yellow metal.
So far this year, despite its recent losses, gold could continue to outshine returns on U.S. and global stock markets. If gold’s relative strength vis-a-vis equities continues in the weeks and months ahead, fund managers will begin shedding equity holdings for both “paper” gold and some (i.e. central banks as well as retail investors) will go for the real thing, “physical” bullion.
Indeed, in recent weeks, we have seen sizable growth in gold ETF holdings presumably by a few hedge funds restoring positions taken up prior to the September 2011 all-time gold-price high. This could be a sign of things to come.
This year’s gold-price volatility — both up and down — has largely been a reflection of speculative activity triggered by a series of market developments:
Most gold analysts at the major banks and brokerage firms, along with much of the financial press, expect the metal’s price will likely average somewhere in the $1100 to $1200 range with a possible low near $1180.
I’m considerably much more bullish than the consensus: Stock market volatility, especially on the downside, attracts bullish long-term gold investors and short-term speculators . . . and this could very well be the fuel that sends gold much higher this year and beyond. |