Commodity market headline (27th of Nov)

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Daily Summary of Baltic Exchange Dry Indices

Baltic Exchange	Dry	Index	BDI	1094 ( UP 4)
Baltic Exchange	Capesize	Index	BCI	2277 ( DOWN 11)
Baltic Exchange	Panamax	Index	BPI	1021 ( UP 8)
Baltic Exchange	Supramax	Index	BSI	732 ( UP 8)
Baltic Exchange	Handysize	Index	BHSI	434 ( UP 3)

Imported Iron Ore Market- Decline to Continue, Possibly for USD 4-5

China, Imported iron ore prices dropped in last week with a USD 2-3 down in foreign quotes and a RMB 10-20 decrease for spot cargo at ports.
Although the foreign quotes had fallen more than the spot cargo, the price level still remained over USD 120 level, leaving few transactions. Most of steelmakers say no to cargo beyond USD 120/tonne.
Sharp falling billet price since last weekend for RMB 70/tonne hit the market confidence greatly and made some steelmakers who used to hesitate about the market trend began to turned gray combined with the recent fall of RMB 20 in billet this weekend, almost every player in the market saw a falling tunnel opening for iron ore price.
No new policies had been released so far after the party conference and new leaders had not given their new directions for next five or ten years, leaving only predictions on the market which is not a firm factor for market trend.
Downstream demands of steel products showed some uplift from housing holding and machinery equipments processing industries provide some support to the steelmakers’ pockets, however, the EXW prices from various steelmakers in past week were all revised down by which means the support is not as solid as it shows.
Tightening pockets for steelmakers weighed on the raw material market, especially coke price had been increasing for months, and steelmakers would pay less and think more before they purchase a great volume of iron ore for their winter stock.
As to the investigation of Umetal, big steelmakers began to receive no profits right now while small ones also facing to lose money. Once we take current iron ore price to account the billet production costs, which would be around RMB 3,160-3,180 per tonne, while compared with current billet market price at Tangshan Area, which is RMB 3080 for today, it is obviously.
If we say the low cost iron ore steelmakers used to by when the price dropped to USD 90 help them to avoid loss and gain money in Oct, with the increasing iron ore prices, consumption of low cost iron ore and falling steel products prices, steelmakers would not have the second month as October anymore.
By entering December, the situation would be worst as the supply of long contract would be very tight from big miners and steelmakers would gradually back into spot market to purchase sufficient iron ore to stock for winter or even for Spring Festival when everybody would be in holiday expect for their furnaces.
Could traders and miners let the good chance pass away? Absolutely not.
The iron ore prices would be raised once again, but steel prices, maybe housing holding and automobile enterprises could give some help but others would not buy many steel products until next late-Feb or March.
In next week, the falling trend would continue to dominate the market by which there would be a USD 4 drop. However, possibility of rebound still exists.
The decreasing port stock of iron ore as well as the short supply of some welcomed iron ore would establish blocks for the price falling that the market had experienced in last week- while the billet had dropped for near RMB 100/tonne, the iron ore price just declined for USD 2-3 for foreign quotes and RMB 10-20 for spot cargos.
According to the statistics issued by Umetal, China iron ore inventory at 34 major ports totaled at 9.875 million tonnes up to November 23, decreasing by 930,000 tonnes from one week ago. The decreasing iron ore inventory also indicates that demands for iron ore spot resources remained strong, especially under fluctuated imported iron ore market.
In addition of 96.97% operation rates and low stock of steelmakers, around 20 days, traders still watch tightly once steelmakers began to purchase, the price would be lifted up.

Source: Nick Zhang, Analyst, Data Center, Umetal

Thermal Coal Swaps for Indonesia Rise; China Contracts Unchanged

Swaps prices rose for thermal coal for loading next year from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel for power stations, according to Ginga Petroleum Singapore Pte.
The swap for Indonesian sub-bituminous coal with a calorific value of 4,900 kilocalories a kilogram in the first quarter of 2013 climbed 10 cents to $62.30 a metric ton on a net-as-received basis on Nov. 23, Ginga said in an e-mail today. The December contract held at $61 a ton.
Contracts for coal with a heating value of 5,500 kilocalories a kilogram for shipment to South China in the first quarter of next year were unchanged at $84 a ton on a net-as- received basis, the energy broker said. The swap for December fell 10 cents at $83.80 a ton.
A commodity swap is a financial agreement whereby a floating price is exchanged for a fixed rate over a specified contract period.
About 60 percent of Indonesia’s coal is classified as sub- bituminous. Higher moisture levels and a lower carbon content reduce the heating value compared with better-quality stock. Sub-bit coal has kilocalories of less than 6,100 per kilogram, according to the Indonesian energy ministry.
Source: Bloomberg

Natural-Gas Exports Could Lift U.S. Trade and Economy

U.S. President Barack Obama has a rising opportunity to make good on two of his central campaign promises: harnessing domestic energy and boosting U.S. exports.
By greenlighting exports of liquefied natural gas, Obama can hasten production of an abundant U.S. resource and open a new avenue of international trade. The president can also give growth a much needed jolt: Liquid natural gas exports could add billions to the U.S. economy, create tens of thousands of long- term jobs and help narrow the trade gap.
Demand for liquefied natural gas is high in Europe and Asia, where the fuel costs $10 to $16 per million British thermal units - far more than the $3.70 it fetches in the U.S. Yet the U.S. doesn’t yet have facilities to liquefy gas for export.
Exporting LNG to countries that aren’t free-trade partners with the U.S. requires a permit. This year, the administration approved such a permit for Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG), allowing the company to build an LNG export facility in Louisiana. However, this triggered complaints from congressional Democrats and U.S. manufacturers, who argued that foreign sales would drive up the price of natural gas in the U.S.
In response, the administration suspended issuing new permits to companies applying to build U.S. export facilities (18 such applications are pending), saying it needed to study the impact of LNG exports on domestic prices. It has twice delayed finishing its analysis, and a final report is now expected by year-end.
Allowing exports would almost undoubtedly lead to a slight increase in U.S. gas prices, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing and shouldn’t be used as justification for preventing LNG exports.
The U.S. is awash in natural gas, so much so that prices have fallen to historic lows and inventories are well above their five-year average. In fact, the price is so low that many energy companies no longer consider it profitable to drill: The number of rigs drilling for gas has fallen this year by almost half, according to data by Baker Hughes.
It’s true that this lull in the supply is expected to push prices up slightly. It’s true, too, that increasing LNG exports would push them even higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that, depending on how much and how quickly gas is exported, U.S. consumers could see a 1 percent to 3 percent increase in electricity prices and a 3 percent to 9 percent increase in natural-gas bills.
That jump, while painful in the near-term, would probably come down over time and would ultimately benefit consumers by bolstering the U.S. economy. Various studies suggest that between 60 percent to 80 percent of foreign demand for gas could be met by new drilling. Michael Levi, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, estimates LNG exports could add $3.7 billion to the U.S. economy annually, along with 60,000 lasting jobs. An additional 8,000 temporary positions could be expected from the construction of new LNG facilities.
Possible downsides do exist. Environmentalists rightly worry about the risk posed by more hydraulic fracturing, which has the potential to pollute air and water if not done properly. This is all the more reason why state and federal regulators should move swiftly to adopt more aggressive rules governing well construction, wastewater treatment and chemical disclosure, among other things.
Another concern is methane leakage from the process of liquefying natural gas for export and then re-gasifying it at its final destination. As we’ve noted previously, there needs to be a full accounting of all methane escaping from the natural- gas supply chain - and care taken to keep those leaks to a minimum.
In our mind, these concerns pale when compared with an even more pressing environmental problem: global climate change. Exporting natural gas could help reduce climate change because the gas is expected to go to coal-heavy markets such as China and India, displacing a large chunk of their carbon use.
The U.S., which still has a $117 billion trade deficit with the rest of the world, should seek every opportunity to boost exports. Obama has rightly called for doubling exports by the end of 2014, and his recent swing through Asia focused in large part on opening new markets for U.S. businesses.
It would be strange, therefore, not to take advantage of the pent-up global demand for cheap American natural gas. Obama’s commitment to turning the U.S. into an export nation would be made real by moving ahead with permits.
Source: Bloomberg

S.Africa's Transnet plans new coal export terminal

South African logistics group Transnet plans to build its own coal terminal at Richards Bay to break the export stranglehold of major miners and open up capacity for new market entrants.
The existing Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's largest coal export facility, handles output from established major mining companies.
But would-be exporters complain it is difficult to acquire capacity from its owners - Anglo American, BHP Billiton , Xstrata, Exxaro and Glencore .
"Transnet is busy investigating an open-access coal terminal for the unlocking of emerging or junior miners in the coal industry," said Sudesh Maharaj, programme director for Transnet's Richards Bay port expansion projects.
"This is mainly due to the situation that we have had up to now, where smaller miners can't mine until there is export capacity."
He told Reuters that state-owned Transnet planned to build a terminal capable of exporting 14 million tonnes a year which could be expanded to 32 million tonnes.
The facility could begin exporting by mid-2020 if approved by the Transnet board and would be able to stockpile four to eight grades of coal.
"It has started as being a Transnet driven initiative and once marine infrastructure was in place, a private operator may be sought through the company's procurement processes," Maharaj said on the sidelines of an African ports conference.
Maharaj said the new coal terminal would be developed alongside an expansion of the port's general freight terminals, which are operating at near full capacity of 24 million tonnes a year.
Besides its main commodity coal, Richards Bay also handles liquids and dry bulk as well as minerals including chrome, ferrochrome, magnetite and ferromanganese and other break-bulk commodities.
Maharaj said fluctuating global prices for coal would not deter Transnet from building the new coal terminal.
"Long-term projects must continue irrespective of cyclical shifts in markets and economies," he said.
South Africa exported 5.56 million tonnes of coal from RBCT in October, slightly up from the previous month.
Source: Reuters

Chinese steel mills still in recovery: expert

Major steel companies in the country are still suffering from losses in their main steel making business, even though they returned to making a profit in October thanks to their non-core businesses, the deputy head of China's steel trade association said over the weekend.
"This year has been the toughest for the country's steel industry since the beginning of the 21st century," Liu Zhenjiang, vice president of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), said Saturday at a forum in Beijing.
Chinese steel makers reported a total loss of 5.5 billion yuan ($874.32 million) for the first three quarters this year, compared with total profits of 83.6 billion yuan in the same period of 2011, according to data from the CISA.
According to Liu, large and medium-sized steel firms started making an overall profit again in October, but only thanks to non-core operations in sectors such as real estate and livestock.
Wuhan Iron and Steel (Group) Corp earned 3.5 billion yuan in profit last year, with 2.08 billion yuan or around 60 percent coming from non-core businesses such as transportation, logistics and machinery manufacturing. The company also started investing in pig breeding and e-commerce this year.
The situation will be better for the steel industry in the fourth quarter and next year, but overcapacity in the sector will still be a problem in the near future, Liu said.
"The slowdown in the economy bottomed out in the third quarter of the year and the government has sped up approval of projects since September, bolstering the market sentiment," Wang Guoqing, a senior analyst at Beijing Lange Steel Information Research Center, told the Global Times Sunday.
"The demand for steel has rebounded since September, pushing up prices and boosting the revenue of steel makers in October," Wang said.
But whether the steel industry can reverse the loss for the entire year will depend on the country's overall economy in the coming month, Hu Yanping, an analyst at industry portal custeel.com, told the Global Times Sunday.
The economic recovery has been gaining momentum in the fourth quarter so far. A preliminary reading of China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a gauge of performance in the manufacturing industry, rose to 50.4 in November from a final reading of 49.5 in October, representing the first expansion in 13 months, HSBC Holdings PLC said Thursday.
China's exports surged by 11.6 percent year-on-year in October, the fastest growth in five months, and retail sales expanded by 14.5 percent year-on-year, hitting a seven-month high.
"Many infrastructure projects, which account for between 25 percent and 30 percent of the demand for steel products, will be implemented after the Chinese New Year. So the market consensus is that the steel market will stabilize next Spring," said Wang from Beijing Lange Steel Information Research Center.
Source: Global Times

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