Strong Growth in Jobs May Encourage Fed to Raise Rates-NYT 11/6 : 10월 고용 급증과 FRB 12월 기준금리 인상 전망 심층분석

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Hiring at American companies shifted into higher gear in October, helping to lift wages and clearing the path for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.

The 271,000 jump in payrolls reported by the Labor Department on Friday was much more robust than expected and suggested that economic growth had enough momentum to allow the central bank to begin its move away from the ultralow, crisis-level interest-rate policy it has been following for seven years.

Along with altering the landscape for policy makers in Washington and traders on Wall Street, the strength in the labor market, if it persists, is expected to shift the political debate as the 2016 presidential campaign heats up.

While there is still a possibility the Fed could hold back, the underlying solidity evident in the latest jobs report will strengthen the hand of monetary policy hawks who have long favored an increase in short-term rates. At the same time, it should reassure Janet L. Yellen, the chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, and a majority of her colleagues at the central bank that the economy can handle modestly higher borrowing costs without stress.

“It was pretty much everything you could ask for in a jobs report,” said Michelle Meyer, deputy head of United States economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Not only was the headline number strong, but there were upward revisions for prior months, the unemployment rate fell and wage growth accelerated.”

A healthy, improving economy tends to favor the incumbent party in the White House, and it could blunt Republican attacks on President Obama’s economic record, a mainstay of the Republican candidates’ message.

After the release of the employment data, economists lined up to predict that a rate increase is now nearly a lock at the Fed’s mid-December meeting.

“The report was so strong and broad-based that it will be difficult to deter them from raising rates,” said Michael Gapen, chief United States economist at Barclays. Until Friday, Barclays had been predicting the Fed would wait until March 2016 to act, but moved that up to next month after Friday’s announcement. “I think the odds are about 80 to 85 percent that they will move,” Mr. Gapen said.

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The Labor Picture in October

SHARE OF

POPULATION

1-MONTH

CHANGE

OCT.

Employed

59.3

%

+

Labor force

(workers and

unemployed)

62.4

Unch.

5.0%

‘HIDDEN’

UNEMPLOYMENT

1-MONTH

CHANGE

In millions

OCT.

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Working part

time, but want

full-time work

5.8

–

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

OCT.

People who

currently want

a job§

5.7

†

+

4.4

%

Unch.

–

0.5

pts.

9.2

Unch.

–

1.7

6.3

–

0.1

pts.

–

0.5

UNEMPLOYMENT BY

EDUCATION LEVEL

1-MONTH

CHANGE

†

†

†

3.5

Unch.

–

1.5

OCT.

15.9

0.4

–

2.8

–

Less than

High school

7.4

%

–

High school

5.2

Unch.

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

Some college

4.4

+

–

OCT.

Bachelor’s or higher

2.5

Unch.

28.0

+

6.5

%

–

14.9

%

11.2

–

1.8

–

17.0

TYPE OF WORK

1-MONTH

CHANGE

In millions

OCT.

Nonfarm payroll,

12-month change

Nonfarm

142.7

+

Goods

19.6

–

+

Services

123.1

+

Agriculture

2.4

+

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS

Rank-and-file

workers

1-MONTH

CHANGE

OCT.

O

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

$869.40

+

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

SHARE OF

POPULATION

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

OCT.

6.5

%

Employed

59.3

%

+

0.1

pts.

+

0.1

pts.

6.0

Labor force

(workers and

unemployed)

62.4

Unch.

–

0.4

5.0%

5.5

5.0

‘HIDDEN’

UNEMPLOYMENT

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

4.5

In millions

OCT.

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Working part

time, but want

full-time work

5.8

–

4.5

%

–

17.8

%

UNEMPLOYMENT

DEMOGRAPHICS

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

OCT.

People who

currently want

a job§

5.7

†

+

2.1

–

6.8

White

4.4

%

Unch.

–

0.5

pts.

Black

9.2

Unch.

–

1.7

Hispanic

6.3

–

0.1

pts.

–

0.5

UNEMPLOYMENT BY

EDUCATION LEVEL

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

†

†

†

Asian

3.5

Unch.

–

1.5

OCT.

Teenagers (16-19)

15.9

0.4

–

2.8

–

Less than

High school

7.4

%

–

0.5

pts.

–

0.5

pts.

DURATION OF

UNEMPLOYMENT

High school

5.2

Unch.

–

0.5

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

Some college

4.4

+

–

0.1

–

0.5

In weeks

OCT.

Bachelor’s or higher

2.5

Unch.

–

0.5

Average

28.0

+

6.5

%

–

14.9

%

Median

11.2

–

1.8

–

17.0

TYPE OF WORK

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

In millions

OCT.

Nonfarm payroll,

12-month change

EMPLOYMENT

Nonfarm

142.7

+

0.2

%

+

2.0

%

+3

%

Goods

19.6

+

–

0.1

+

1.1

Services

123.1

+

0.2

+

2.2

+2

Agriculture

2.4

+

1.4

–

0.5

+1

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS

Rank-and-file

workers

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

OCT.

0

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

$869.40

+

0.4

%

%

+

2.2

%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

6.5

%

6.0

5.0%

5.5

5.0

4.5

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

UNEMPLOYMENT

DEMOGRAPHICS

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

OCT.

White

4.4

%

Unch.

–

0.5

pts.

Black

9.2

Unch.

–

1.7

Hispanic

6.3

–

0.1

pts.

–

0.5

†

†

†

Asian

3.5

Unch.

–

1.5

Teenagers (16-19)

15.9

–

0.4

–

2.8

DURATION OF

UNEMPLOYMENT

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

In weeks

OCT.

Average

28.0

+

6.5

%

–

14.9

%

Median

11.2

1.8

–

17.0

–

Nonfarm payroll,

12-month change

EMPLOYMENT

+3

%

+2

+1

0

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

SHARE OF

POPULATION

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

OCT.

Employed

59.3

%

+

0.1

pts.

+

0.1

pts.

Labor force

(workers and

unemployed)

62.4

Unch.

–

0.4

‘HIDDEN’

UNEMPLOYMENT

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

In millions

OCT.

Working part

time, but want

full-time work

5.8

–

4.5

%

–

17.8

%

People who

currently want

a job§

5.7

†

+

2.1

–

6.8

UNEMPLOYMENT BY

EDUCATION LEVEL

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

OCT.

Less than

High school

7.4

%

–

0.5

pts.

–

0.5

pts.

High school

5.2

Unch.

–

0.5

Some college

4.4

+

0.1

–

0.5

Bachelor’s or higher

2.5

Unch.

–

0.5

TYPE OF WORK

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

In millions

OCT.

Nonfarm

142.7

+

0.2

%

+

2.0

%

Goods

19.6

+

0.1

+

1.1

Services

123.1

+

0.2

+

2.2

Agriculture

2.4

+

1.4

–

0.5

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS

Rank-and-file

workers

1-MONTH

CHANGE

1-YEAR

CHANGE

OCT.

$869.40

+0.4

%

%

+

2.2

%

-->

Figures are seasonally adjusted, except where noted. *Hispanics can be of any race. †Not seasonally adjusted. §People not working who say they would like to be. Includes discouraged workers and those who cannot work for reasons including ill health.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

NOV. 6, 2015

By The New York Times

The unemployment rate dipped to 5 percent, from 5.1 percent in September. Average hourly earnings also bounced back, rising 0.4 percent in October after showing no increase in September. That lifted the gain to 2.5 percent over the last 12 months, the healthiest pace since 2009.

Still, most workers will need bigger raises for some time to come to make up for ground lost after a long period of wage stagnation. What’s more, many Americans remain on the sidelines of the job market, discouraged by years of lackluster hiring after the Great Recession.

The proportion of Americans who are in the labor force, which fell to a 38-year low of 62.4 percent in September, was unchanged last month.

Still, at 5 percent, the official unemployment rate is very close to the threshold that the Fed and many private economists consider consistent with stable prices over the long term. The slack that built up in the labor market after the recession, however, has changed traditional calculations of how far unemployment can fall before the job market tightens and the risk of inflation rises.

 

An additional jobs report for November will be in hand by the time the Open Market Committee gathers for its last meeting of the year, on Dec. 15 and 16.

In light of the strong October figures, though, economists are already beginning to look to the question of how fast the Fed will have to make subsequent rate increases if the labor market continues to improve.

Charles L. Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, had long advocated waiting until 2016, but he said on Friday that he expected internal debate to start shifting toward the timing of subsequent rate increases.

“I think what we’re likely to get into discussing before too long is what’s the path of the rate increases,” Mr. Evans said in an interview with CNBC. “That’s what’s going to dictate how accommodative or restrictive our policy is. And so I think we need to have communications which indicate that the path is going to be gradual.”

But some analysts said the Fed would be forced to move faster than it currently plans.

“Regardless of the exact timing of the first rate hike, we still believe that the big story next year will be an unexpectedly strong pickup in wage growth and price inflation,” said Paul Ashworth, chief United States economist at Capital Economics. This trend, he predicted, “will force the Fed into a much more aggressive policy-tightening cycle than the Fed’s projections currently suggest.”

Mr. Evans is among Fed officials who do not want the central bank to move too quickly, before there is clear evidence of inflationary pressure. Prices have increased slowly in recent years, rising just 0.2 percent over the 12 months ending in September, well below the 2 percent pace that the Fed regards as optimal.

At the same time, many workers are still working fewer hours than they would like, or taking jobs that pay much less than they would like.

The Labor Department’s broadest measure of unemployment, which includes workers forced to take part-time jobs because full-time work is unavailable, fell to 9.8 percent in October from 10 percent in September. A year ago, it was over 11.1 percent.

The picture of labor market strength evident in the data sent bond yields surging as traders rapidly adjusted for the likelihood of a December move. Stocks were mixed in trading Friday, as investors weighed the risks that higher rates pose to earnings and company valuations.

In a separate report on Friday, the Federal Reserve said consumer borrowing surged by $28.9 billion in September, the biggest monthly jump since the start of data collection in 1941. Student debt and car loans posted big increases.

As has been the case for several months, there was a feast-or-famine quality to the job report. Sectors tied to commodities and exports treaded water while domestically focused areas of the economy performed well.

Photo

-->-->

The so-called slack that built up in the labor market after the Great Recession has altered traditional calculations of how far unemployment can fall before the job market tightens and the risk of inflation rises. Credit Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The pattern persisted in October: Factory jobs were unchanged, while mining and logging lost 4,000 positions. Professional and business services recorded a huge 78,000 increase in jobs. Health care hiring was also robust, with a 56,700 increase.

White-collar employers like Ernst & Young, the accounting and consulting giant, have been on something of a hiring binge. Over the course of the company’s 2016 fiscal year, which began in July, Ernst & Young plans to hire just over 17,000 new employees in the United States, roughly 10,000 joining straight out of college.

In July, August and September, the firm added 2,500 more experienced accountants and consultants, said Dan Black, director of recruiting for the Americas. “Whether it’s dealing with taxes, regulations or technology, our clients want help,” Mr. Black said.

Nearly all the positions, whether entry-level or for more experienced workers, require at least a bachelor’s degree, underscoring how crucial credentials and specialized skills have become in today’s job market.

“For experienced talent, it’s a dogfight,” Mr. Black said. “In 2008 and 2009, as companies cut back, we had our pick of the litter. Now it’s much more competitive.”

Correction: November 6, 2015
An earlier version of this article misstated the response of bond trading to the jobs report. Bond yields went up after the release of the report; they did not go down.

Binyamin Appelbaum contributed reporting from Washington.

A version of this article appears in print on November 7, 2015, on page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Stronger Case for Rate Rise in Jobs Report. Order Reprints| Today's Paper|Subscribe