e-KIET 산업경제정보 // 2016년 하반기 거시경제 전망 // 2016년 국내경제는 하반기에 수출 부진이 다소 완화되나, 설비투자가 감소세로 돌아서고 구조조정 여파

<div class="sub_title" style="margin: 0px; padding: 7px 0px 12px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; width: 718px; position: relative; clear: both; float: none; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 15.6px;"><h3 style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 0px 13px; font-size: 12px; height: 26px; background: url("../img/common/bul/title_h3_bul.gif") 0px 0px no-repeat;"><img src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kiet.re.kr%2FData%2Fmenu%2Ftitle_image_9.gif" alt="e-KIET 산업경제정보" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px solid transparent; display: block;"></h3></div><div id="contentwarp" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 15.6px;"><div class="thumnail_focus" style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 40px 0px 0px; width: 717px; clear: both; background: url("../img/board/bg_thumnail_top.gif") 0px 0px no-repeat;"><div class="thumnail_bottom" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 52px; clear: both; display: inline-block; overflow: hidden; width: 717px; background: url("../img/board/bg_thumnail_bottom.gif") 0px bottom no-repeat;"><div class="board_view_infor" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 40px;"><h4 style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 7px 0px; font-size: 1.4em; width: 637px; letter-spacing: -1px; background-color: rgb(238, 239, 247);"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; display: block; color: rgb(26, 84, 155); background: url("../img/board/bul_blue_box.gif") 9px 3px no-repeat;">2016년 하반기 거시경제 전망</span></h4><div class="pulishing_infor_view" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 642px;"><ul style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px 10px 0px 9px; list-style: none; overflow: hidden; clear: both; display: inline-block;"><li style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 15px 8px 8px; color: rgb(100, 100, 100); line-height: 1.4em; float: left; display: block; vertical-align: middle; background: url("../img/board/bg_grey_sq.gif") 0px 5px no-repeat;"><span style="margin: 0px 6px 0px 0px; padding: 0px 10px 0px 3px; display: block; float: left; background: url("../img/board/bg_grey_bar_short.gif") right 3px no-repeat;">저자</span><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">산업·통상분석실</strong></li><li style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 15px 8px 8px; color: rgb(100, 100, 100); line-height: 1.4em; float: left; display: block; vertical-align: middle; background: url("../img/board/bg_grey_sq.gif") 0px 5px no-repeat;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">제 628 호 (2016.06.23)</strong></li><li style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 15px 8px 8px; color: rgb(100, 100, 100); line-height: 1.4em; float: left; display: block; vertical-align: middle; background: url("../img/board/bg_grey_sq.gif") 0px 5px no-repeat;"><span style="margin: 0px 6px 0px 0px; padding: 0px 10px 0px 3px; display: block; float: left; background: url("../img/board/bg_grey_bar_short.gif") right 3px no-repeat;">원문</span><a href="http://www.kiet.re.kr/part/sDownload.jsp?s_idx=44112" title="e628호(산업통상분석실_2016년하반기거시경제전망).pdf" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(38, 60, 80);"><img src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kiet.re.kr%2Fkiet_web%2Fdata%2Fimg%2Fboard%2Ficon%2Ficon_pdf.gif" alt="pdf" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px solid transparent; vertical-align: middle;"></a> </li></ul></div></div><div class="thumnail_middle" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; display: inline-block; overflow: hidden; width: 717px; background: url("../img/board/bg_thumnail_middle.gif") 0px bottom repeat-y;"><div class="board_view_wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 12px 0px 0px 40px; width: 634px; background: url("../img/board/bg/view_line.gif") 40px 0px no-repeat;"><div class="veiw_print" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; width: 634px; text-align: right;"><a href="http://www.kiet.re.kr/kiet_web/main.jsp?sub_num=9&ord=0&pageNo=1&state=view&idx=52467#none" title="Facebook" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(38, 60, 80);"><img src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kiet.re.kr%2Fkiet_web%2Fdata%2Fimg%2Fboard%2Fbtn%2Fbtn_facebook.gif" alt="Facebook" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px solid transparent;">Facebook</a> <a href="http://www.kiet.re.kr/kiet_web/main.jsp?sub_num=9&ord=0&pageNo=1&state=view&idx=52467#none" title="Twitter" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(38, 60, 80);"><img src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kiet.re.kr%2Fkiet_web%2Fdata%2Fimg%2Fboard%2Fbtn%2Fbtn_twitter.gif" alt="Twitter" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px solid transparent;">Twitter</a> <a href="http://www.kiet.re.kr/kiet_web/main.jsp?sub_num=9&ord=0&pageNo=1&state=view&idx=52467#" title="새창" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(38, 60, 80);"><img src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kiet.re.kr%2Fkiet_web%2Fdata%2Fimg%2Fboard%2Fbtn%2Fbtn_print.gif" alt="인쇄하기" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px solid transparent;"></a></div><div class="view_con" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.6em;"><p>2016년 국내경제는 하반기에 수출 부진이 다소 완화되나, 설비투자가 감소세로 돌아서고 구조조정 여파 등이 민간소비 증가를 제약하면서 전년과 비슷한 연간 2.6% 내외의 성장을 보일 것으로 예상<br>● 전기비로는 상하반기 비슷한 성장을 보이겠으나, 전년 패턴의 기저효과로 전년동기비 성장률은 상고하저(上高下低) 흐름을 예상<br>● 대외적으로는 미국 금리인상과 그 여파, 중국의 성장둔화 폭, 지정학적 불안 등이, 국내요인으로는 구조조정 여파 및 재고조정 가능성과 폭 등이 주요 변수로서 전체적으로 하방위험(downside risk)이 우세할 전망</p><p><br>민간소비는 저유가에 힘입은 구매력 개선과 정부 경기부양책 등이 증가를 견인하나 가계부채 및 주거비 부담, 구조조정 여파 등이 제약요인으로 작용하여 완만한 증가를 이어갈 전망</p><p><br>설비투자는 지난 2년간 높은 증가의 반작용과 높은 재고율 부담 등으로 감소세로 돌아설 것으로 보이고, 건설투자는 건설경기 호조에 힘입어 비교적 높은 증가를 지속할 전망</p><p><br>수출은 상반기 대비 유가반등에 힘입어 단가 하락세가 축소되면서 하반기에 부진이 다소 완화될 것으로 보이나, 연간 전체로는 여전히 비교적 큰 폭의 감소를 보일 전망<br>● 2016년 수출은 약 6%, 수입은 약 8% 감소하고, 무역수지는 전년보다 소폭 확대된 930억 달러 내외의 대규모 흑자를 기록할 전망<br></p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="btnareaC" style="margin: 20px 0px 35px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; position: relative;"><a href="http://www.kiet.re.kr/kiet_web/main.jsp?sub_num=9&ord=0&pageNo=1&state=list" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(38, 60, 80);"><img src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kiet.re.kr%2Fkiet_web%2Fdata%2Fimg%2Fboard%2Fbtn%2Fbtn_list.gif" alt="목록" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px solid transparent;"></a></div><div class="board_util" style="margin: 0px; padding: 6px 0px 6px 12px; width: 698px; height: 22px; overflow: hidden; clear: both; position: relative;"><h4 style="margin: 0px; padding: 1px 0px 0px 18px; color: rgb(30, 85, 120); background: url("../img/common/bul/bul_db_sq02.gif") 0px 2px no-repeat;">동일주제의 보고서</h4></div><div class="boardWrapL" style="margin: 0px 6px 0px 12px; padding: 0px; background: url("../img/board/bg/bg_board_top.gif") 0px 0px no-repeat;"><table summary="동일주제의 보고서 게시판 리스트 번호, 보고서명,저자,발행인,구분,조회수,원문에 대한 정보 입니다." class="comBoard" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; width: 700px; border-bottom-width: 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 224, 225);"><caption style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 0px; height: 0px; overflow: hidden; visibility: hidden; font-size: 0px; line-height: 0;"></caption><colgroup><col width="60%"><col width="15%"><col width="12%"><col width="7%"><col width="6%"></colgroup><thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><th scope="col" style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 9px; line-height: 1; background: url("../img/board/bg/bg_board_th.gif") right bottom no-repeat;"><img src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kiet.re.kr%2Fkiet_web%2Fdata%2Fimg%2Fboard%2Ftxt%2Ftxt_title_report.gif" alt="보고서명" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px solid transparent;"></th><th scope="col" style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 9px; line-height: 1; background: url("../img/board/bg/bg_board_th.gif") right bottom no-repeat;"><img src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kiet.re.kr%2Fkiet_web%2Fdata%2Fimg%2Fboard%2Ftxt%2Ftxt_writer.gif" alt="저자" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px solid transparent;"></th><th scope="col" style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 9px; line-height: 1; background: url("../img/board/bg/bg_board_th.gif") right bottom no-repeat;"><img src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kiet.re.kr%2Fkiet_web%2Fdata%2Fimg%2Fboard%2Ftxt%2Ftxt_date.gif" alt="발행일" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px solid transparent;"></th><th scope="col" style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 9px; line-height: 1; background: url("../img/board/bg/bg_board_th.gif") right bottom no-repeat;"><img src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kiet.re.kr%2Fkiet_web%2Fdata%2Fimg%2Fboard%2Ftxt%2Ftxt_view.gif" alt="조회수" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px solid transparent;"></th><th scope="col" class="right_bar" style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 9px; line-height: 1; background: none right bottom no-repeat;"><img src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kiet.re.kr%2Fkiet_web%2Fdata%2Fimg%2Fboard%2Ftxt%2Ftxt_orgin_book.gif" alt="원문" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px solid transparent;"></th></tr></thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td class="left" style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 8px 15px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185); vertical-align: middle; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; text-overflow: ellipsis;"><a href="http://www.kiet.re.kr/kiet_web/main.jsp?sub_num=12&pageNo=1&state=view&idx=52517" target="_blank" title="새창" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(38, 60, 80);">2016년 하반기 거시경제 전망</a></td><td style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 6px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; text-align: center; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185);">민성환, 강두용</td><td style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 6px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; text-align: center; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185);">2016.07.05</td><td style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 6px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; text-align: center; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185);">4996</td><td style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 6px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; text-align: center; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185);"><a href="http://www.kiet.re.kr/part/sDownload.jsp?s_idx=44167" target="blank" title="파일명 다운로드" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(38, 60, 80);"><img src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kiet.re.kr%2Fkiet_web%2Fdata%2Fimg%2Fboard%2Ficon%2Ficon_pdf.gif" alt="pdf" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px solid transparent;"></a></td></tr><tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td class="left" style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 8px 15px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185); vertical-align: middle; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; text-overflow: ellipsis;"><a href="http://www.kiet.re.kr/kiet_web/main.jsp?sub_num=12&pageNo=1&state=view&idx=52516" target="_blank" title="새창" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(38, 60, 80);">2016년 하반기 산업 전망</a></td><td style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 6px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; text-align: center; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185);">김경유</td><td style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 6px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; text-align: center; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185);">2016.07.05</td><td style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 6px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; text-align: center; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185);">3908</td><td style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 6px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; text-align: center; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185);"><a href="http://www.kiet.re.kr/part/sDownload.jsp?s_idx=44166" target="blank" title="파일명 다운로드" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(38, 60, 80);"><img src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kiet.re.kr%2Fkiet_web%2Fdata%2Fimg%2Fboard%2Ficon%2Ficon_pdf.gif" alt="pdf" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px solid transparent;"></a></td></tr><tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td class="left" style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 8px 15px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185); vertical-align: middle; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-all; text-overflow: ellipsis;"><a href="http://www.kiet.re.kr/kiet_web/main.jsp?sub_num=12&pageNo=1&state=view&idx=52508" target="_blank" title="새창" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(38, 60, 80);">실물경제 주요지표 & KIET 업종별 경기지수</a></td><td style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 6px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; text-align: center; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185);">KIET</td><td style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 6px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; text-align: center; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185);">2016.07.05</td><td style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 6px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; text-align: center; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185);">1910</td><td style="margin: 0px; padding: 8px 0px 6px; font-family: 돋움, dotum, Arial, "Trebuchet MS", Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; text-align: center; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 185, 185);"><a href="http://www.kiet.re.kr/part/sDownload.jsp?s_idx=44158" target="blank" title="파일명 다운로드" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(38, 60, 80);"><img src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kiet.re.kr%2Fkiet_web%2Fdata%2Fimg%2Fboard%2Ficon%2Ficon_pdf.gif" alt="pdf" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; 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