The pinnacle of the global financial system is warning that conditions are right for a “full-blown banking crisis” in China. Since the last financial crisis, there has been a credit boom in China that is really unprecedented in world history. At this point the total value of all outstanding loans in China has hit a grand total of more than 28 trillion dollars. That is essentially equivalent to the commercial banking systems of the United States and Japan combined.
중국정부의 부채는 통제되고 있는게 사실인데, 기업부채는 지디피의 171%에 달했는데, 이는 부채 거품이 터지기 직전의 상황이라 한다. 이것이 아주 심각해졌기에 비아이에스측은 경고를 울렸다 is sounding the alarm ...
신용 위험의 중요한 척도는 임계위험보다 3배나 상회한다는데 있다. 이것은 계속 악화되는데 리커창 수상이 약속했음에도 불구하고 부채를 통한 성장이 지속된다는데 문제가 있다고 한다.
While it is true that government debt is under control in China, corporate debt is now 171 percent of GDP, and it is only a matter of time before that debt bubble horribly bursts. The situation in China has already grown so dire that the Bank for International Settlements is sounding the alarm…
A key gauge of credit vulnerability is now three times over the danger threshold and has continued to deteriorate, despite pledges by Chinese premier Li Keqiang to wean the economy off debt-driven growth before it is too late.
The Bank for International Settlements warned in its quarterly report that China’s “credit to GDP gap” has reached 30.1, the highest to date and in a different league altogether from any other major country tracked by the institution. It is also significantly higher than the scores in East Asia’s speculative boom on 1997 or in the US subprime bubble before the Lehman crisis.
Studies of earlier banking crises around the world over the last sixty years suggest that any score above ten requires careful monitoring.
Normally the Bank for International Settlements is not prone to making extremely bold pronouncements, and so this warning about China seems a bit out of character.
Is something going on behind the scenes that we don’t know about?
Without a doubt, the global financial system is shakier and more vulnerable than most people would dare to imagine. Global central banks have been on the greatest money creation spree in recorded history, and interest rates have been pushed to ridiculously low levels.
If you can believe it, approximately 10 trillion dollars worth of bonds are trading at negative interest rates right now. This is completely and utterly irrational, and when this giant bond bubble finally explodes it is going to create a crisis unlike anything the world has ever seen before.
Just recently, Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies commented on this bubble…
He said the current financial conditions are “the most dangerous markets i have ever witnessed in my entire life ? and i’ve been investing for over 25 years… The membrane has been stretched so wide and so tight that its about to burst.”
Pento believes that once the bond crash happens, it will trigger a cataclysmic wave of crashes throughout the entire global financial system…
Mr Pento has now warned that when policymakers signal they are set to stop buying, which will stop bond prices rising, there is going to be a devastating crash ? not just in bond markets but across all investment assets.
마이클펜토, 펜토 포트폴리오 전략사는 중국부채거품에 관해서 말하길,
" 이것은 지난 25년만에 처음보는 최대 위험이다. 채권시장이 붕괴되고, 거품이 터지면, 모든 자산이 쓸려나갈것이고, 모든 것이 한번에 붕괴할 것이다.. 그것은 다이아몬드를 포함해, 스포츠카, 상호담보 펀드, 국공채, 고정수입, 부동산 뮤츄얼펀드, 상호담보부채, 주식, 채권 등등 상업상품 모두가 줄지어 붕괴할 것이다. " 라고 말했다
He said: “When the bond market breaks, when that bubble bursts, it will wipe out every asset, everything will collapse together… I mean diamonds, sports cars, mutual funds, municipal bonds, fixed income, reits, collateralised loan obligations, stocks, bonds ? even commodities ? will collapse in tandem along with the bond bubble burst.”
첫댓글 사이비 피터김자료 퍼오는활동 자제하시길
중국에서 경제금융위기같은거 200년안에 절대로 일어나지않습니다..토지개혁 부동산개혁만해도 1000년 은 아무일없이 잘먹구 잘살겁니다