Change Is Slow at Turtle Bay
거북처럼 느린 유엔의 개혁
By Robert T. McLean
Published 4/18/2006 12:08:59 AM
Kofi Annan's tenure at the United Nations is soon mercifully coming to an end. Those hopeful for genuine reform of the troubled body, however, should not hold their breath. The United States was recently one of only four countries out of the 191 member General Assembly to vote against the creation of a Human Rights Council that may prove just as ineffectual as the discredited and now defunct Human Rights Commission. All of the rhetoric and international public congruency on the necessity to repair the organization have predictably been exposed as a charade. Compromise, a founding principle of the United Nations to ensure peace and human rights the world over, has led to paralysis and mediocrity. As the next secretary-general of the UN is decided this fall, little else should be anticipated but more of the same.
다행히 코피 아난의 임기가 곧 끝나지만 진정한 유엔 개혁을 바라는 이들은 숨을 죽여서는 안돼. 유엔 인권 이사회가 유엔 인권 위원회와 마찬가지로 비효율적일 것으로 보이는데도 창설에 반대한 나라는 미국을 포함 4개국에 불과. 유엔을 뜯어 고쳐야 한다는 모든 주장들이 줄곧 제스추어로 드러나. 유엔 설립의 원리 중 하나인 타협의 원리는 '마비와 평범'으로 전락. 올 가을에 차기 유엔총장 선출.
Much of the international community accepts that it is Asia's opportunity to lead the UN. While the United States and some of our European allies dismiss the unwritten rule of regional rotation for the secretary-general, most developing countries embrace the idea as a means to increase their power and standing on the international stage. The Bush administration reasonably feels that the most qualified candidate should be given the job, regardless of the region from which he came. Even the Bangkok Post -- Thailand has one of the three leading candidates for the post -- recognized that the "unwritten UN rules favor an Asian candidate for the top post for no reason that has to do with competence [or] brilliance."
미국과 일부 유럽 국가들을 빼고는 대다수 국가들이 차기 유엔 총장으로 아시아 출신 지지. 개도국들은 국제적 입지 강화 위해 지역별 순환 원칙을 지지.
Standards aside, none of this will likely have a great deal of impact on who assumes the role of secretary-general beginning in 2007. Russia and China strongly support the premise that the next head of the UN should come from Asia. Although an Eastern European has never assumed the role of secretary-general, this is of little concern to most outside the region. In fact, the very real possibility that former Polish president Aleksander Kwasniewski could succeed Annan -- Kwasniewski had tense relations with Russia and was an ally of the United States -- makes an Asian candidate vastly more attractive to Moscow. As a result, the Russian Embassy in South Korea suggested that the continent compromise on one candidate "and give him full support" as that "will be more efficient" in ensuring an Asian secretary-general. China, for its part, has stated that it will only support a candidate from Asia.
동유럽 출신에 대해서는 동유럽 외에서는 거의 관심 없어. 러시아는 폴란드 전임 대통령 알렉산더 크바스니에프스키의 선출을 피하기 위해서 아시아 출신 지지.
With Moscow and Beijing each having veto power as permanent members of the UN Security Council and the support from 53 countries in Africa for Asian leadership, it seems virtually certain that the next secretary-general will hail from the continent of Asia. At this point, there are three leading contenders for the top post, yet none are without their flaws.
중국, 러시아 및 아프리카 53개국의 지지로 볼 때 차기 유엔총장은 아시아 출신이 확실. 현재 앞서가는 후보는 3명.
CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY successor to Kofi Annan will be South Korea's Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon. As foreign minister, Ban has been afforded the opportunity to campaign around the world while conducting diplomatic excursions on behalf of South Korea. His deep involvement in the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program has resulted in expanded relationships with the United States, Russia, China, and Japan. With all four of these nations represented in the Security Council -- the fifteen member body submits their candidate to the General Assembly for approval -- this is a highly significant advantage.
현재로선 한국의 반기문 외교 장관이 가장 유력. 북핵 6자 회담 관여로 유엔 안보리 이사국들과 반 장관의 관계가 넓어져.
Germany has expressed some support for Ban, and the South Korean candidate meets the requirement indicated by French president Jacques Chirac that the new secretary-general should be able to speak French. United States Ambassador to the UN John Bolton has spoken favorably of Ban: "I've known the foreign minister since he served in Washington in the Bush forty-one administration and have a very high regard for him." Bolton explained that they have talked about the campaign for general secretary, but no public commitment has been or will be made. Additionally, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak has endorsed Ban, providing him with the backing of one of the central foundations of the Arab world.
독일은 반 장관 지지 표명. 프랑스의 요구조건도 충족. 유엔 주재 미국 대사 존 볼튼도 호의적 발언. 게다가 아랍 세계의 주요 국가인 이집트까지 지지.
President Mubarak is not the only autocrat who has embraced the Ban candidacy. According to the Seoul daily Chosun Ilbo, Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan's post-Soviet strongman, recently expressed that "he 'highly values' Ban's experience as a diplomat and said it would be difficult to find a better candidate." Such praise from the butcher of Andijan is not only disconcerting, but also suggests that Moscow and Beijing -- which have considerable influence on Uzbekistan -- may be leaning towards Ban.
우즈베키스탄의 반기문 지지 발언은 중국과 러시아가 반기문 후보에 기운 것을 시사.
Such a development would not be surprising. The rivalry between China and Japan in Asia is certain to play a role as the continent assumes the leadership of the "world body." Ban has had his share of differences with Tokyo over the last few years and there is little doubt that Beijing views this as an opportunity to improve its interests in Asia and the international arena. As South Korea's foreign minister, Ban strongly opposed Japan's campaign to attain a seat as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
이렇게 된 데에는 중국과 일본의 경쟁관계도 작용.
Further fault lines in the Ban-Tokyo relationship were exposed earlier this month by the South Korean news agency, Yonhap. On April 7, it was reported that South Korea uncovered an internal document by Japan's foreign ministry that claimed Seoul was pursuing an anti-Japanese policy to increase domestic political support. The dispute led Ban's foreign ministry to state: "The South Korean Foreign Ministry called in a minister at the Japanese embassy in Seoul...to deliver its protest letter over the insulting internal report allegedly written by the Japanese foreign ministry." Further tensions have recently surfaced regarding the disputed islets of Dodka -- the islands have been claimed by Japan since the forced annexation of Korea in 1910 -- which led Ban to claim: "I can't help feeling infuriated as a South Korean citizen over the distortion of South Korea's justifiable exercising of its sovereign rights as a political tool." Thus, it would come as little surprise if Tokyo were to campaign against the South Korean foreign minister this fall.
최근 한일 관계는 악화 일로. 일본이 반기문 반대 운동해도 놀랄 일 못돼. *역주: Dodka는 Dokdo의 오기로 보임*
Additionally, serious concerns arise when examining the record of Ban Ki-moon. The South Korean foreign minister has consistently refused to address the human rights situation in North Korea. Additionally, Ban has led a foreign ministry that has proven rather incapable of persuading Pyongyang to act remotely responsible in nuclear negotiations. Michael Horowitz, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, notes: "People are taking a very close look at the candidacy of a man who will be coming into office as the chief spokesman for policy that does not want to talk about human rights in the government that abuses human rights more than any other in the whole world." If Ban seems indifferent to human rights abuses right across his border to a people with whom he shares a common heritage, how is he going to respond to human rights concerns in far off corners of the world?
북한 인권 상황에 대한 침묵은 반 장관의 심각한 문제점.
THAILAND'S DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER Surakiart Sathirathai will most likely be Ban's greatest challenger. Surakiart has gained the endorsement of the ten-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and claims to have the support of as many as 128 countries in all. The latter attribute is widely considered exaggerated or all-out false, but there is additional speculation that the Thai candidate could end up with the post. Both of Surakiart's parents were educated in France and his mother is a renowned professor of French literature. These qualities will inevitably endear him to Paris. Surakiart has also been relatively supportive of United States' efforts in the War on Terror. The Bangkok Post announced nearly a year ago that China had placed "its weight behind Surakiart's bid." However, this occurred during a Chinese trip to drum up opposition to an expansion of the permanent members of the UN Security Council to include Japan, India, Germany, and Brazil and was likely no more than inconsequential diplomatic maneuvering on behalf of Beijing.
수라끼앗 사타라타이는 반 장관의 유력 경쟁자. 부모님들이 프랑스에서 교육 받은 점은 프랑스가 좋아할 요소. 대테러 전쟁 지지는 미국에 유리. 중국이 수라끼앗에 기울었다는 보도는 믿을 바 못돼.
Added cracks in Surakiart's support structure are also apparent. In fact, even in his own country, calls for Surakiart's withdrawal have come from everywhere from the media to government officials. On September 30, 2005, Kasit Piromya, former Thai ambassador to the United States, advised Surakiart to abandon his candidacy due to a lack of support from Washington and little experience on issues such as human rights and democracy. Former Thai representative to the UN Asda Jayanama expressed his case for a withdrawal when he noted: "Surakiart has never ceased to amaze me with his clumsy, eager-beaver diplomacy. His quest for the position of UN secretary-general amply demonstrates his bungling working style." As Surakiart's domestic support wanes, his chances for broad international backing will inevitably fade.
태국 내부에서조차 수라끼앗 반대 목소리. 미국의 지지 가능성 희박하고 외교 솜씨 서툴러.
The final serious candidate for the top post at the UN is Sri Lanka's Jayantha Dhanapala. Dhanapala is a former under-secretary-general for disarmament at the UN, and it remains to be seen how much of an impact he can have on the competition for Annan's job. Widely considered a compromise candidate, Dhanapala appears similar to Annan before the latter assumed the post in that he has done little to distinguish himself, and, therefore, is uncontroversial. Nevertheless, Dhanapala has advocated new laws and institutions to ban all ballistic missiles; a step that is not only contrary to the interest of the United States, but is plainly delusional. The Sri Lankan candidate has also stipulated that the American invasion of Iraq without Security Council authorization "undermines international law and the unity of the UN system and opens the way to an anarchic global society with no internationally accepted norms." Thus, there seems little reason for Washington to throw its support behind what appears to be yet another potential secretary-general hostile to America's interests.
자얀타 다나팔라는 논쟁 여지가 적은 인물이라는 점에서는 코피 아난 총장의 취임 전 모습과 비슷. 그러나 탄도탄 미사일 금지나 미국의 이라크 침공 반대 등에서 미국에 적대적인 입장 보여.
Unfortunately, a candidate that is qualified, capable, and willing to alter the culture of mediocrity at the United Nations is nowhere to be found. Currently, it appears that South Korea's Ban Ki-moon will replace Kofi Annan as secretary-general, and while he may emerge as a more inspiring leader than his predecessor, it is doubtful he will improve this uninspiring organization. Therefore, barring a Bolton miracle, comprehensive reform will not come anytime soon. Change is indeed slow at Turtle Bay.
불행히도 유엔의 '평범의 문화'를 바꿀만한 후보는 보이지 않아. 현재로선 한국의 반기문 장관이 차기 유엔총장이 될 것으로 보이며 그가 전임자들보다는 더 '영감을 불러일으킬' 지도자가 될지라도 유엔이라는 영감 없는 조직을 개선할 수 있을지는 의문. 따라서 볼튼의 기적 이외에는, 포괄적인 유엔 개혁이 금방 일어날 수 없어. 거북이 만(灣)에서의 변화는 참으로 느려. *역주: 거북이 만은 유엔 본부가 있는 미국 뉴욕 시의 지명입니다*
Robert T. McLean is a research associate at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, D.C.
필자 로버트 티. 맥클린은 워싱턴 시 안보정책 센터의 연구원
*출처=http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=9696
**미국의 보수 강경파 인사가 쓴 글로 보이는데, 반기문 장관이 차기 유엔총장이 될 가능성이 큰 것으로 보고 있군요. 매우 고무적입니다. 2006.04.18. 월계자.
출처 : 우주사모