(Nov 11, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

[정견만]

(Nov 11, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

안녕하세요? 금-토 1박2일 한국장학재단 소속 대학생 Mentees 8명과 Temple-stay 다녀왔습니다. 스님으로부터 강의 들으면서 나이 들어도 배워야 함을 새삼 느꼈고, 학생들과 녹록치 않은 경제 현실에 대해 토론하면서 제발 청년들에게 희망 넘치는 사회가 되기를 빌었습니다.  

1. Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems, CNN

- 미국과 힘겨운 무역전쟁을 벌이고 있는 중국, 이미 경제 성장률이 세계 금융위기이래 최저로 낮아 진 상태에서 높은 부채 문제, 부동산 버블 문제, 그리고 Yuan화 약세 문제를 품고 있는 중국경제의 문제점들을 정리한 기사입니다.

- 무역전쟁 문제

미국의 $200bn 새 관세에도 불구 중국의 10월중 수출이 16% 증가한 바 있음. 그러나 미 Trump정부가 추가 관세($267bn) 조치를 하고 내년초부터 관세율을 10% ->25%로 일률 인상할 경우 중국 경제 상황은 악화될 것이라는 주장

- 높은 부채 문제

중국경제가 2008년 세계경제 위기 이후 급격한 성장을 시현한 것은 부채 잔치에 힘입은 것(thanks to repeated debt binges.). 이로 인해 중국의 총 부채 규모는  

GDP의 2.67배인 $32.4 Tr.에 달함 이 돈의 상당부분이 비생산적 또는 less-productive한 분야(부동산, 비효율적 국영기업 등)으로 흘러 들어 감 -> 중국정부는 작년부터 deleveraging노력 경주 -> 경기 침체 -> 올해 들어 미국과의 무역분쟁으로 경기침체 우려 확대 -> 부채 감축 정책 폐기 ->부채 재차 급등 중

- 추락하는 Yuan화 문제

올들어 현재까지 US$/Yuan화 환율은 9% 하락. 주요인은 중국경제 fundamentals에 대한 우려 증가 및 미국 Fed의 금리 인상이죠.

Yuan화 가치하락으로 수출 증가 효과는 가져왔지만, 자본 유출(capital outflow) 심화라는 큰 문제 발생 ->중국정부 yuan가치하락 저지를 위해 외환보유고 사용 중

 - 부동산 버블 문제

 중국 부동산 가격은 지난 10년간 배로 상승. 요인은 저금리와 대도시의 부족한 주거.

그러나 전문가는 부동산 가격 하락은 이제 시간문제라고 함. 이미 대규모 개발사업자가 수요 부진으로 가격인하를 주도.

 지금까지는 건설투자가 국민경제의 버팀목 역할을 해 왔지만 이제 달라 질 것 -> 부동산 가격 급락하면 금융기관 손실 증가 등 큰 문제로 확산

 한 전문가는 현재 중국이 경제성장 유지를 위해 세금 감면, 인프라 투자 확대, 완화적 통화관리를 하는데 대해, 이는 급성이 아닌 만성적 병에 대한 올바른 처방이 아니라고 주장하네요.

<생각> 중국경제의 과다 부채 구조는 부동산 버블의 붕괴, 미국과의 무역전쟁 악화로 인한 수출 둔화, 위안화 가치의 급락 등의 경우 중국경제를 붕괴시킬 소지도 있음 -> 그러나 현재로서는 10월 수출도 괜찮았고, 부동산 시장도 냉각 단계는 아니며, 환율도 보유외환으로 적절히 지지하고 있는 만큼 단시일내 문제화되지 않을 것임(그러나 만성적 문제인 것만큼 장기적으로 잘 대처해야 할 것임.

2. Standoff between Italy and EU continues – but there is only one player that matters, CNBC

- Italy 정부가 EU에 제출한 2019년도 예산안이 deadlock에 빠졌습니다. EU는 Italy경제성장율이 향후 2년간 정체될 것으로 보고, 현 예산안 대로라면 2019년도 재정적자/GDP 비율이 2.9%에 달하게 되므로 현재보다 긴축예산을 편성해야 한다면서 다음주 화요일까지 수정 예산안 제출을 요청.

이에 대해, Italy정부는 확장예산으로 성장을 촉진해 결국 동 비율이 2.4%가 되므로, 기제출한 예산안을 계속 주장.

현재 IMF등 세계경제 예측기관들은 대부분의 국가들이 향후 2년간 정체 내지 침체된 성장을 전망하고 있는 바 시장에서는 Italy정부의 설득력이 약함.

그러나, 현 이태리 정부는 2개의 Populist 정당(Five Star Movement and Lega)의 연정으로 이미 재정지출 확대를 국민에게 약속한 상황.

재정적자 비율이 EU기준을 초과하면 제재를 받아야 하지만, 현재까지는 제재 사례가 없다고 함. 그러나 문제는 시장의 반응. 현재 이태리의 정부부채/GDP 비율이 130%를 초과한 상태로 재정적자 확대가 불가피하다고 판단한 시장은 이태리 정부채 수익률을 급등(가격하락) 시켰음(지난주에도 12bp 상승). 향후 신용등급평가 악화 등으로 수익률 추가 상승 소지. ->외국 채권 은행들 손실확대 -> 차후 국채발행 곤란 등 악순환 초래

<생각>

국민들의 Populist 정당 선택 -> 단기, 혜택(세금감면, 보조금 등) ->장기, 경제 침체로 더 큰 손해. (이런 사기꾼 위정자를 선택해서야. ㅊ

3. Trump slams U.S. judge's decision to halt Keystone XL pipeline

- Trump가 Keystone XL pipeline 공사 중단을 결정한 법원의 판결을 맹비난하였습니다. 상기 공사는 Canada산 중유를 미국으로 운반하기 위한 것($8 bn, 1,180 mile from Alberta to Steele City, Nebraska)으로 Trump는 2017년 취임하자마자 동 공사를 에너지 인프라의 일환으로 승인하였음.

그런데 동 공사에 대해 2015년 Obama정부는 기후변화를 초래할 가스 유출을 우려, 환경보호 차원에서 공사시행을 reject한 바 있음.

이번 법원의 판결은 victory for environmentalists, tribal groups and ranchers이자,

규제완화를 일변도의 Trumpnomics의 한계를 극명하게 보여준 사례임

정견만 드림

1. Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems, CNN

Analysis by Daniel Shane, CNN Business

Updated 1155 GMT (1955 HKT) November 9, 2018

Hong Kong (CNN Business) China is riding out the trade war so far but its economic troubles run deep and could escalate rapidly if US tariffs really start to bite.

Beijing is already wrestling with other problems that the trade war could exacerbate. China's economy is now growing at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. It's laden down with debt and facing concerns about a real estate bubble and weakening currency.

Despite the Trump administration's new tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, exports are still growing strongly, up 16% in October. But that could change in the coming months if tariffs rise to 25% from 10% at the end of December, as the US has threatened, adding to China's growing list of problems.

Runaway debt

The Chinese economy expanded rapidly in the years after the global financial crisis thanks to repeated debt binges.

"China's growth has been highly credit intensive," said Gerard Burg, Sydney-based senior economist at National Australia Bank. The total amount of debt in the Chinese financial system is now several times the size of the entire economy.

Some of this money has gone into building bridges, road and other infrastructure. But a lot has ended up in less productive parts of the economy, such as big, inefficient state-run companies. The more dynamic private sector hasn't benefited as much.

Late last year, Beijing stepped up its efforts to rein in the high levels of debt, which is one of the main reasons the economy is now losing momentum.

Some analysts are skeptical about the Chinese government's commitment to cleaning up its financial system, especially as the slowdown deepens and the trade war intensifies.

Many provincial governments and state-run firms would struggle to stay above water without regular injections of cheap credit, according to Kevin Lai, an economist at investment bank Daiwa Capital Markets.

Cutting off their credit lines "would have very negative repercussions, like social unrest, layoffs and bankruptcies," Lai said. That's a scenario Beijing wants to avoid.

Plunging currency

The government is also trying to fend off pressure on China's yuan, which has sunk more than 9% against the dollar since January. It's been hurt by concerns about the health of the Chinese economy and rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve that have pushed up the greenback.

The weaker yuan has boosted China's huge export industry, as it makes Chinese products cheaper on global markets. But slumps in the yuan have caused headaches in the past.

Amid sharp declines in 2015 and 2016, vast sums of money flooded out of China as investors bet the yuan would keep falling. The crisis forced Beijing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to prop up its currency.

A rapidly falling yuan could become a vicious cycle, according to Manu Bhaskaran, the founder of Singapore-based research firm Centennial Asia.

"There could be a huge capital outflow and that could feed on itself," he said.

Beijing appears to have again started dipping into its massive war chest of foreign currencies in recent months to slow the yuan's declines, according to research firm Capital Economics.

Real estate bubble

Another threat lurks in the country's overheated property market.

Prices have more than doubled in the past decade, according to research firm Gavekal, stoked by low interest rates and a shortage of housing in major cities.

But the real estate market now "appears to be showing some cracks," said Aidan Yao, a senior emerging markets economist at AXA Investment Managers. He pointed to some instances of big property developers slashing prices in the face of weakening demand.

"It is only a matter of time before the market cools," Yao added.

The real estate industry has been one of the few bright spots for China's economy this year but turn into a burden if it slumps, according to analysts at research firm Fitch Solutions.

"This will add another layer of pressure," they wrote in a note to clients last month.

Chronic problems

Chinese officials have turned to tax cuts, infrastructure spending and looser monetary policy as they seek to prop up growth. But some experts think these are the wrong prescriptions for the country's economic woes.

"China's problems are chronic, not acute," said Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington-based think tank.

In his view, the major issues, such as China's rapidly aging population and uncompetitive business environment, are being largely ignored.

The Chinese government has relaxed its decades-old one-child policy and tried to increase competition with plans to give foreign companies greater access in areas like banking and automobiles.

But those moves have come too late or don't go far enough, raising serious concerns about China's long-term economic future, according to Scissors.

"Old, indebted economies don't grow," he said

2. Standoff between Italy and EU continues – but there is only one player that matters, CNBC

Silvia Amaro

2018.11. 10 Published 2 Hours Ago

• Officials from the European Union (EU) and Italy have found themselves in a deadlock after the former's economic forecasts showed the Italian economy would grow at a slower pace in the next two years than Rome thinks.
• But, the big question in front of investors is how the markets will react to this noise.

Brussels and Rome are in a constant back and forth over budget negotiations but analysts told CNBC that it is the markets that matter the most.

Officials from the European Union (EU) and Italy have found themselves in a deadlock after the former's economic forecasts showed the Italian economy would grow at a slower pace in the next two years than Rome thinks.

The Italian government was quick to dismiss, blaming the EU for its "inadequate and partial" analysis of the country's spending plans.

These comments came after Brussels said earlier on the day that Italy's 2019 deficit will reach 2.9 percent and not 2.4 percent as Rome insists. Both sides have clashed over Italy's 2019 budget plans after the anti-establishment government promised to increase spending, challenging European fiscal rules.

On Friday, Italy's Economy Minister Giovanni Tria said Brussels' proposed deficit cuts would be "suicide" for the country's economy. The unyielding stance from Rome triggered a rise in the yield spread between German and Italian debt, a common measure of risk for European investors.

Analysts told CNBC the standoff looks set to continue, and that the EU is laying the ground to open the process that could eventually lead to sanctions — though no EU country has ever been fined for breaching spending limits.

But, the big question in front of investors is how the markets will react to this noise.

"Continued pressure from the EU, further ratings downgrades and even higher risk spreads will force Rome to soften its policies by just enough in coming months to stave off an immediate debt crisis," Florian Hense, economist at Berenberg told CNBC Friday in an email.

Yields on Italian debt have risen significantly since May — when the two populist parties, Five Star Movement and Legaa massive debt pile — the second largest in the EU at about 130 percent of gross domestic product.

In the last seven days alone, the yield on the 10-year Italian bond is up by about 12 basis points. Looking at its performance throughout the year, there has been an increase of about 172 basis points.

"The true guardians of fiscal discipline will be, as usual, financial markets," Lorenzo Codogno, chief economist at LC Macro Advisors said in a note to clients Thursday.

Rising interest rates pose risks to the Italian economy. Not only the government could face difficulties in funding itself in the markets, as there could be additional pressure on the Italian banking system.

Italian lenders have about 10 percent of sovereign bonds and higher yields mean that the chances of seeing a return on their Italian bonds are reduced, exposing bondholders to risk. The FTSE Italy banking index is down about 36 percent from a peak on April 24.

David Roche, global strategist and the research firm Independent Strategy, told CNBC Friday that Italy will continue pushing the string until it gets close to leaving the euro zone.

"What will change is when Italy's budget arithmetic gets it to the edge of the cliff of leaving the euro and populists have to ask their voters, okay do you want to jump — and then I think the Italian people do not want to leave the euro," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."

"But we have a road to travel."

The European Commission has given Italy until next Tuesday to update its 2019 budget plans, in a way that reduces the economic risks. However, until now, Rome has not signalled any intentions to change its plans.

"The budget plans of the Italian government are a far cry from EU fiscal rules," Hense said in a note.

"So far, the ruling coalition in Rome has stubbornly rejected EU demands to change its budget plans. In combination with the reversal of structural reforms, Italy's fiscal plans have caused an unprecedented clash between the third largest EU27 member state and the rest of the EU."

3. Trump slams U.S. judge's decision to halt Keystone XL pipeline, Reuters

rendan O'Brien, David Gaffen

B November 9, 2018 / 11:29 PM / Updated an hour ago

(Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday blasted a federal judge’s decision to halt construction of the Keystone XL pipeline that would carry heavy crude oil from Canada to the United States, a project that has been in development for a decade.

The ruling out of U.S. Court in Montana on Thursday dealt a major setback to TransCanada Corp (TRP.TO) and could possibly delay the construction of the $8 billion, 1,180 mile (1,900 km) pipeline. It was also a blow to Trump, who approved the pipeline shortly after taking office in 2017 as part of a plan to boost U.S. energy infrastructure.

“It was a political decision made by a judge. I think it’s a disgrace,” Trump told reporters at the White House. TransCanada had no immediate comment.

Sponsored

The Canadian company’s stock dropped 2 percent in Toronto while shares of Canadian oil producers Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ.TO) and Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) fell harder, shedding 4 percent.

The ruling is a victory for environmentalists, tribal groups and ranchers who have spent more than a decade fighting against construction of the pipeline that will carry heavy crude from Alberta to Steele City, Nebraska

U.S. District Court Judge Brian Morris ruled late Thursday that the U.S. government did not complete a full analysis of the environmental impact of the project. It came after a lawsuit filed by several environmental groups against the U.S. government in 2017, soon after Trump announced a presidential permit for the project.

Morris wrote in his ruling that a U.S. State Department environmental analysis “fell short of a ‘hard look’” at the cumulative effects of greenhouse gas emissions and the impact on Native American land resources.

Canada has long sought more arteries to move oil out of the province of Alberta, where the heavy, tar-like bitumen is extracted. Several projects have already been scrapped, and the Canadian government had to take ownership of another project, an expansion of the Trans Mountain line, to move it forward, but that project is facing delays in Canada.

“It means more delay for TransCanada,” said Sandy Fielden, analyst at Morningstar. “You have to wonder how long investors will tolerate the delays and whether the Canadian government will intervene again to protect the industry.”

Canada is now the primary source of imported U.S. oil, but full pipelines have forced shippers to rely more on less efficient methods of transport, including rail, and in some cases, using trucks to deliver oil to U.S. pipeline injection points.

In Thursday’s ruling, Morris ordered the government to issue a more thorough environmental analysis before the project can move forward.

“The Trump administration tried to force this dirty pipeline project on the American people, but they can’t ignore the threats it would pose to our clean water, our climate, and our communities,” said the Sierra Club, one of the environmental groups involved in the lawsuit.

Morris, in his ruling, said the analysis failed to fully review the effects of the current oil price on the pipeline’s viability and did not fully model potential oil spills and offer mitigations measures. The U.S. State Department was not immediately available for comment.

Trump supported building the pipeline, which was rejected by former President Barack Obama in 2015 on environmental concerns relating to emissions that cause climate change.

Trump cancels WW1 memorial at US cemetery in France due to rain, sparking Twitterstorm, Reuters

• President Donald Trump could not attend a commemoration in France for U.S. soldiers and marines killed during World War One on Saturday because rain made it impossible to arrange transport, the White House said.
• The last minute cancellation prompted widespread criticism on social media and from some officials in Britain and the United States that Trump had "dishonored" U.S. servicemen.

Published 10 Hours Ago Updated 8 Hours Ago Reuters

President Donald Trump could not attend a commemoration in France for U.S. soldiers and marines killed during World War One on Saturday because rain made it impossible to arrange transport, the White House said.

The last minute cancellation prompted widespread criticism on social media and from some officials in Britain and the United States that Trump had "dishonored" U.S. servicemen.

The president was scheduled to pay tribute at a ceremony at the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery in Belleau, about 85 km (50 miles) east of Paris, with his wife Melania. But light steady rain and a low cloud ceiling prevented his helicopter from traveling to the site.

"(Their attendance) has been canceled due to scheduling and logistical difficulties caused by the weather," the White House said in a statement, adding that a delegation lead by Chief of Staff John Kelly, a retired general, went instead.

The decision prompted a rash of criticism on Twitter, with Nicholas Soames, a British member of parliament who is a grandson of former Prime Minister Winston Churchill, saying that Trump was dishonoring U.S. servicemen.

"They died with their face to the foe and that pathetic inadequate @realDonaldTrump couldn't even defy the weather to pay his respects to the Fallen," Soames wrote on Twitter.

White House officials said the decision was taken due to the weather and cited security concerns in hastily arranging a motorcade. Similar concerns prevented Trump from reaching the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea a year ago when foggy weather prevented his helicopter from landing.

Ben Rhodes, who served as deputy national security adviser for strategic communications under President Barack Obama, said the excuse about the inclement weather did not stand up.

"I helped plan all of President Obama's trips for 8 years," he wrote on Twitter. "There is always a rain option. Always."

Despite the light rain, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a moving ceremony in Compiegne, northeast of Paris, to mark the 100th anniversary of the signing of the World War One armistice.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attended his own ceremony to pay tribute to Canadian troops killed at Vimy Ridge, on the battlefields of northeastern France.

Others compared Trump's memorial snub to the National Football League's kneeling protests.

Around 70 leaders, including Trump, are scheduled to gather at the Arc de Triomphe in Paris on Sunday morning to mark the commemoration of the centenary of the end of the war, when some 10 million soldiers were killed during four years of grinding conflict.

It was not clear what Trump decided to do instead of attending the cemetery. The White House said he was at the residence of the U.S. ambassador in Paris. During that time he sent a tweet wishing a "Happy 243rd Birthday" to the U.S. Marine Corps.

The president is scheduled to take part in a ceremony at the Suresnes American Cemetery to the west of Paris on Sunday afternoon, when he is expected to make formal remarks.

K-Pop Boy Band BTS Booted Off Japan TV Show Over Atomic Bomb Shirt, Bloomberg

By Lily Nonomiya

‎2018‎년 ‎11월‎ ‎9‎일‎ ‎오전 ‎‎10‎:‎21

• K-Pop band member’s t-shirt seemed to celebrate WWII bombings
• TV Asahi cancels appearance after talks with record label

A Japanese television network abruptly canceled the appearance of the mega-hit K-Pop band BTS over a controversial T-shirt worn by one of its members, which was seen by some to celebrate the use of atomic weapons against Japan during WWII.

TV Asahi said the Billboard-topping band wouldn’t be appearing on its show "Music Station" tonight after reaching out to BTS’ record label about the T-shirt, which had caused controversy on social media ahead of the band’s tour of Japan beginning next week.

BTS apologized in a statement to its Japanese fans for not being able to make the appearance, without elaborating.

The t-shirt, which depicted slogans in support of Korean liberation as well as a mushroom cloud on the back, had stirred controversy in Japan, where the band has a large fanbase.

"A-bomb t-shirt" was one of the top trending topics on Twitter this morning. "Music Station" is one of Japan’s most prominent music programs and one of TV Asahi’s main shows.

"I’m from Hiroshima. I can’t accept BTS appearing on Music Station," said one Twitter user. "This group is making fun of the atomic bombings."

The incident comes as ties between Japan and South Korea are once again strained over historical issues, with a court ruling holding Japanese firms liable for wartime forced labor claims roiling relations.

1. U.S. job growth soars; annual wage gain largest since 2009, Reuters

Lucia Mutikani

November 2, 2018 / 1:24 PM / Updated 10 hours ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job growth rebounded sharply in October and wages recorded their largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years, pointing to further labor market tightening that could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in December.

Average hourly earnings rose five cents, or 0.2 percent, in October after advancing 0.3 percent in September. That boosted the annual increase in wages to 3.1 percent, the biggest gain since April 2009, from 2.8 percent in September.

Employers also increased hours for workers last month. The average workweek rose to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours in September.

“The report shows a booming U.S. economy with a sufficient whiff of wage inflation to keep the Fed on track to raise rates in December and at least twice next year,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds in New York.

The dollar .DXY was trading higher against a basket of currencies. Stocks on Wall Street fell while U.S. Treasury yields rose.

Strong annual wage growth mirrors other data published this week showing wages and salaries rising in the third quarter by the most since mid-2008. Hourly compensation also increased at a brisk pace in the third quarter.

Firming wages support the view that inflation will hover around the Fed’s 2.0 percent target for a while. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding the volatile food and energy components, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, has increased by 2.0 percent for five straight months.

GRAPHIC: U.S. wage growth - tmsnrt.rs/2CVLTHg

MODESTLY INFLATIONARY

The Fed is not expected to raise rates at its policy meeting next week, but economists believe October’s strong labor market data could see the U.S. central bank signal an increase in December. The Fed raised borrowing costs in September for the third time this year.

Some economists said Fed officials were likely to view the low unemployment and rising wages as modestly inflationary.

“The risk in 2019 is that the Fed will increase the pace of rate hikes,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. “Market participants will likely need to adjust their expectations going forward.”

Employers, scrambling to find qualified workers, are boosting wages. There are a record 7.14 million open jobs.

Online retail giant Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) announced last month it would raise its minimum wage to $15 per hour for U.S. employees starting in November. Workers at United States Steel Corp (X.N) are set to receive a hefty pay rise also.

Employment gains averaged 218,000 jobs per month over the past three months, double the roughly 100,000 needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

That is seen supporting the economy through at least early 2019 when gross domestic product is expected to significantly slow as the stimulus from the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package fades.

The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, rose to 62.9 percent last month from 62.7 percent in September.

A broader measure of unemployment, which includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, fell one-tenth of a percentage point to 7.4 percent, matching a 17-year low hit in August.

The employment-to-population ratio rose to 60.6 percent, the highest since January 2009, from 60.4 in September.

Last month, employment in the leisure and hospitality sector increased by 42,000 jobs after being unchanged in September. Retail payrolls rose by only 2,400 amid declines in employment at gasoline stations and sporting goods and music stores.

Construction companies hired 30,000 more workers in October. Jobs in the sector have been increasing despite weakness in the housing market. Government payrolls rose by 4,000 jobs.

Manufacturing employment increased by 32,000 jobs in October after adding 18,000 positions in September. So far, hiring in the manufacturing sector does not appear to have been affected by the White House’s protectionist trade policy, which has contributed to capacity constraints at factories.

The United States is locked in a bitter trade war with China that has led to tit-for-tat tariffs. Washington also has imposed tariffs on products from other trading partners, including the European Union, Canada and Mexico, prompting retaliation.

Despite the protectionist measures, the trade deficit continues to deteriorate. In a separate report on Friday, the Commerce Department said the trade gap increased 1.3 percent to $54.0 billion in September, widening for a fourth straight month.

“Tariffs have done little to dent America’s appetite for imports,” said Emily Mandel, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “The trade deficit will remain a drag on the economy.”

광군(光棍节; 빛나는 막대기

guānggùn节 [jié]

 중국의 경제 발전에 기름을 부은 것은 전자상거래의 발전과
편리하고 안전한 결제시스템입니다.
그 주역들인 티몰(Tmall)과 타오바오(Taobao)
의 차이점과 특징을 알아보겠습니다.  매달 약 6 억 3 천 4 백만명의 인구 - 중국 인구의 거의 절반 -이 스마트 폰으로 Alibaba Group Holding의 Taobao Marketplace 및 Tmall 전자 상거래 앱을 끌어 올립니다.

[출처] 타오바오 방송 Taobao Tmall 한국계정승인|작성자 stade48
*1편에서는 타오바오(Taobao)의 특징을
2편에서는 티몰(Tmall)의 특징과
두 플랫폼의 차이점

 중국의 경제 발전에 기름을 부은 것은
전자상거래의 발전과
편리하고 안전한 결제시스템입니다.
그 주역들인 티몰(Tmall)과 타오바오(Taobao)
의 차이점과 특징을 알아보겠습니다.
*1편에서는 타오바오(Taobao)의 특징을
2편에서는 티몰(Tmall)의 특징과
두 플랫폼의 차이점ㅜ

타오바오 셀러의 수는 2천만이 넘기 때문에 통제가 힘든 건 사실입니다

-==

Alibaba.com[edit]

Alibaba.com, the primary company of Alibaba, is as of 2014, the world's largest online business-to-business trading platform for small businesses.^[41] Founded in Hangzhou in eastern China, Alibaba.com has three main services. The company's English language portal Alibaba.com handles sales between importers and exporters from more than 240 countries and regions.^[42] The Chinese portal 1688.com was developed for domestic business-to-business trade in China. In addition, Alibaba.com offers a transaction-based retail website, AliExpress.com, which allows smaller buyers to buy small quantities of goods at wholesale prices.

Taobao.com淘宝网 (táobǎowǎng)

는 Alibaba의 소비자 대 소비자 플랫폼이며, Tmall.com은 브랜드가 소비자에게 직접 판매되는 B2C 플랫폼입니다.

Tmall.com (Chinese: 天猫; pinyin: Tiānmāo ), formerly Taobao Mall , is a Chinese-language website for business-to-consumer (B2C) online retail, spun off from Taobao, operated... Tmall.com (Chinese: 天猫; pinyin: Tiānmāo), formerly Taobao Mall, is a Chinese-language website for business-to-consumer (B2C) online retail, spun off from Taobao, operated in China by Alibaba Group. It is a platform for local Chinese and international businesses to sell brand name goods to consumers in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. Being the world's second biggest e-commerce website after Taobao, it has over 500 million monthly active users, as of February 2018. It is the world's ninth most visited website

2. How Singles' Day Became Biggest Shopping Spree Ever, Bloomberg

By Lulu Yilun Chen and Robert Fenner

‎2018‎년 ‎11월‎ ‎2‎일‎ ‎오전‎ ‎6‎:‎00

Singles’ Day is the world’s biggest shopping event. In less than a decade, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. turned a quirky celebration for unmarried young adults in China into a global extravaganza drawing in thousands of retailers and hundreds of millions of shoppers of all ages -- hitched or otherwise. It’s spread to other e-commerce operators and will include more brick-and-mortar stores than ever before this year. The big unknown: To what extent, if any, the brewing U.S.-China trade war will cut into Singles’ Day sales.

1. Why is it called Singles’ Day?

When Nov. 11 is written numerically -- 11/11 -- the four digits evoke “bare branches,” the Chinese expression‎ for the unattached. On Chinese university campuses in the 1990s, 11/11 evolved into a celebration of being single in a culture that emphasizes relationships -- an antidote to Valentine’s Day. The country’s rising middle class turned that into a phenomenon.

2. Why does Singles’ Day revolve around shopping?

Credit Alibaba’s billionaire co-founder Jack Ma. As he began building the company, Ma latched onto the idea of centering a shopping promotion around a holiday, drawing inspiration from the American Black Friday tradition of mega-discounts. He chose Nov. 11 starting in 2009. Early on, his company’s marketing encouraged consumers to treat themselves in celebration of being single. But the day has never been limited to the lonesome, and it targets every demographic. Ma -- who never shies from taking the stage -- will preside over his brainchild for the final time in 2018 as Alibaba’s chairman. He’s stepping down Jan. 1 and handing the reins to his protégé Daniel Zhang.

3. Is this exclusively an Alibaba event?

Though Alibaba was the first to link Singles’ Day to consumerism, plenty of rivals have joined in. JD.com Inc. does promotions, as does Vipshop Holdings Ltd. and a raft of other e-commerce companies. Amazon.com Inc., a bit player in China, started Prime Day in 2015 in the U.S. to drive a similar sort of shopping frenzy. A key difference between Alibaba and Amazon is the Chinese company is a digital landlord for merchants and consumers to find each other, while the empire founded by Jeff Bezos holds much of its own inventory to sell.

4. Is Singles’ Day for Chinese shoppers only?

While the mainland dominates sales, Alibaba is trying to make it more global. That means getting foreign brands involved in selling to the Chinese. It’s also working to promote its English-language websites such as wholesaling platform Alibaba.com. The 2018 edition will again involve AliExpress, which targets consumers abroad, and Lazada, its Southeast Asian operation.

5. How big is Singles’ Day?

More than twice as much merchandise is sold over the 24-hour period than during the entire five-day U.S. holiday-buying spree that begins on Thanksgiving, runs through Black Friday and ends on Cyber Monday. Every year has exceeded the one before, with last year’s sales climbing 39 percent to 168.2 billion yuan ($24.2 billion). That’s on par with the gross domestic product of some smaller European nations. Most of the buying was via Taobao and Tmall, Alibaba’s main shopping sites.

6. What will be different this year?

It remains to be seen whether a depressed Chinese stock market and higher import tariffs resulting from U.S.-China trade tensions will curb consumers’ enthusiasm. On the other hand, Alibaba has significantly boosted the brick-and-mortar element of Singles’ Day by accelerating its investments in malls, convenience stores and food delivery services -- part of what it calls its “new retail” initiative. Essentially, any transaction made via payment service Alipay will count. The initiative involves equipping traditional retailers with new technology to manage inventory and to serve as distribution centers for online shoppers, as well as connecting mom-and-pop stores to its platform. There are also 200,000 so-called smart stores that seek to combine the online and offline retail experience. Alibaba forecasts 2018 will be the largest ever Singles’ Day.

The Reference Shelf

• Bloomberg QuickTakes on Alibaba’s rise to become an e-commerce giant and on the U.S. Black Friday sales.
• More on Ma’s "new retail" plan to revitalize brick-and-mortar stores.
• Alibaba sales are going strong.
• Amazon’s Prime Day generated more than $1 billion in sales this year.
• China Daily looks at preparations for Singles’ Day.
• China targets fake online reviews and goosed sales numbers.

3. Building the Silicon Valley of the sea. Future of Seafood, Reuters

Norwegians are now raising salmon in the Arctic Circle. A maverick band of entrepreneurs and scientists is trying to help future-proof aquaculture against the havoc caused by climate change.

By MATTHEW GREEN and MARYANNE MURRAY
Filed Oct. 30, 2018, 2 p.m. GMT

Norway has built the world’s biggest salmon-farming industry. But it wants to go bigger. With their lucrative oil fields now in decline, Norwegians have ambitious plans for aquaculture to power their economy far into the future.

Climate change could make those dreams harder to realize. As waters warm, more salmon farmers may have to move into the country’s Arctic regions to raise the temperature-sensitive species. And there’s another problem. Salmon feed is based on fishmeal, produced by grinding up wild-caught fish. With climate change pushing underwater ecosystems to the breaking point, Big Aquaculture is seeking ways to feed fish that aren’t hostage to increasingly unpredictable oceans.

The Norwegian cities of Bergen and Stavanger have become a Silicon Valley of the Sea as entrepreneurs and scientists look for answers. The innovators hope to find sustainable sources of feed, minimize pollution from fish farms and take new ideas to scale.

"What we're already seeing in Norway is the impact of climate change on our ecosystems. We have new species entering our ecosystems, we see the warmer waters are challenging to our salmon. But in Norway we have been very lucky because we have a very, very long coastline, so we had opportunities to move our production higher north. A few years ago, perhaps 10 years ago, nobody thought we would be able to produce salmon up in the far north, but now we are actually producing salmon far up in the north as well."

Tanja Hoel
Managing director, Seafood Innovation Cluster

This organization groups companies, researchers and scientists looking for new ways to farm fish.

The feed problem

Norway’s aquaculture industry will go to great lengths to secure feed for farmed fish. It has even sent factory ships to the other end of the Earth to vacuum krill — tiny crustaceans eaten by penguins and whales — from Antarctic waters. But with climate change breaking down old certainties about patterns of life in the ocean, the industry is searching for new ways to feed salmon without using wild-caught fish.
That’s not easy. Salmon and other carnivorous fish can be very picky. Not only do they need just the right balance of amino and fatty acids, vitamins and minerals to grow properly, they need their nutrition delivered in a form they can digest. Researchers want to solve the problem by learning from nature’s infinite capacity to reuse, repurpose and recycle.

각국 중앙은행들이 지난 3분기중 $5.82bn 어치 금을 매입하였습니다(2015년 4분기 이래 최대폭) 세계경제 정세가 불안정해 진 결과라고 봐야겠죠

Gold buying by central banks hits its highest level in almost three years, CNBC

David Reid | @cnbcdavy

Published 2 Hours Ago Updated 2 Hours Ago

• Gold buying by central banks reaches its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2015.
• Around $5.82 billion was spent during the third quarter to boost central bank reserves.
• The buying was offset by heavy selling of gold-backed funds during the same period.

Central banks around the world have upped their spending on gold to the highest level in almost three years, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

More than 148 metric tons of gold were bought by the national banks in the three months to the end of September, a rise of 22 percent on the same period last year.

Using the current spot price of $1,223 per troy ounce, the gold purchases by the banks added up to a $5.82 billion spending splurge on the precious metal.

Russia's central bank led the buying, purchasing more than 92 tons of gold. This marked the country's biggest quarterly net purchase on records that stretch back to 1993.

In May this year, the Russian central bank's First Deputy Governor Dmitry Tulin told lawmakers in the lower house of parliament that gold was "a 100 percent guarantee from legal and political risks."

The WGC, a non-profit association of the world's leading gold producers, said other big buyers of gold during the third quarter were the central banks of Turkey (18.5 tons), Kazakhstan (13.4 tons) and India (13.7 tons).

In Europe, the national banks of Poland and Hungary also ramped up gold purchases. According to the WGC, the latter has said the buying is to enhance the long-term stability of its reserves.

Gold is often considered as a hedge against any fall in value of the U.S. dollar. During the third quarter, the dollar index ticked up by around 0.7 percent.

Despite the appetite from several central banks, the price of gold fell around 4 percent during the period, slipping below $1,200 per troy ounce to hit its lowest level since January 2017. Bullion has since seen a positive month in October, rising by around 2 percent.

The WGC said that while central bank demand was complemented by more buying of physical bars and coins, jewelry and orders from technology firms, investors took flight.

Data revealed by the council revealed that selling of gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the third quarter resulted in sales of more than 116 tons of the precious metal.

The overall net effect was that gold demand in the third quarter was 964.3 tons, 6.2 tons higher on a year-on-year basis.