the 5 mistakes every investor makes를 우연히 읽었다. 매년 2천불씩 투자자금이 있는 경우 20년간 원금은 4만불인데 이를 최고점투자, 즉시투자, 매월투자, 최저점투자, 예금으로 비교한 결과 당연 최저점투자가 최선이고 예금이 최악의 수익을 기록했지만, 매월투자보다 즉시투자가 더 좋았다고 한다. 그 이유는 2/3기간은 상승하기때문이라고 생각한다. 35 주가지수가 최고치를 경신했다는 것이 버블을 의미하는 것은 아니다. 따지고 보면 지하철비, 짜장면값, 등록금 등 대부분의 가격이 최고치를 경신하고 있기 때문이다. 버블은 주가수익비로 결정해야 한다. 닷컴버블시에는 주가수익비가 5배나 됬었고 주택버블때도 가격소득비가 1.5배였다. 75
저자는 최근에 읽었던 주식투자최적타이밍에 관한 책에서 주장했던 11월에 사서 4월에 팔아라는 것도 오이비락이라고 하지만, 연말보너스나 비과세투자를 고려하면 연말연초에 주식시장으로의 자금유입이 더 많을 것이라는 것이 합리적인 생각이 아닐까? 78 저자는 종목선택이 아닌 자산비중이 더 실적에 미치는 영향이 크다며 뱅가드의 88%조사를 제시하고 있다. 그런데 뱅가드의 조사도 그렇지만 장이 좋으면 개나 소나 좋은 실적을 낸다는 부언설명이 더 효과적이라는 생각이 든다. 83
84년부터 11년간 주가지수는 연15%가 상승했지만, 펀드는 12%에 불과했다. 수수료와 과다거래비용을 고려하면 시장평균과의 차이가 합리적이다. 문제는 개인인데 6%에 불과했다. 오를 때 사고 내릴 때 팔았던 결과다. 그래서 좋은 주식을 장기보유하는 것이 중요하다. 87 1916년부터 2012년까지 현금만 100%보유한 경우가 당연히 제일 명목수익률이 낮아서 연평균 3.6%였고 채권 100%가 5.54%, 채권80%에 주식20%가 6.75%에서 주식100%가 9.97%로 점점 증가하고 있다. 138
다만 주식의 수익률이 높은만큼 변동성도 커서 1926년부터 2019년까지 채권100%는 -8.1%에서 32.6%로 연평균 수익률5.3%이었으나 주식비중이 높아지면서 수익률과 변동성도 점차 증가하여 100%에 달하면 -43.1%에서 54.2%까지의 변동을 기록했고 수익률은 10.3%에 달했다. 139 매년 리밸랜싱을 하는 것보다 주식이 폭등하거나 폭락했을 때만 리밸랭싱하는 것이 훨씬 좋은 전략이다. 거래비용과 세금현금유출을 줄이고 수익성도 더 높아진다. 비싸게 팔고 싸게 사는 셈이기 때문이다. 144
https://www.wiley.com/en-gb/The+5+Mistakes+Every+Investor+Makes+and+How+to+Avoid+Them:+Getting+Investing+Right,+2nd+Edition-p-9781119794349
Preface xiii; Acknowledgments xv; About the Author xvii; Legal Disclosure xix; Introduction The Market Wants to Be Your Friend xxi
Mistake #1 Market Timing 1; The Idiots 5; Why Is It So Hard to Beat the Market? 6; Efficient Markets 7; The Evidence (Research and Stuff) 8; The Media Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again 8; Economists Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again 9;
Investment Managers Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again 14; Newsletters Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again 17; Your Buddy 18; Strategies That Don’t Sound Like Market Timing but Are Market Timing—Oh, and They Don’t Work Either 19;
Asset-Class Rotation 19; Tactical Asset Allocation 20; Style Rotation 20; Sector Rotation 20; What Smart Investors Have to Say on Market Timing 20; Knowing All This, Why Would Anyone Market Time? 21; Corrections 22;
Bear Markets: An Overview 26; Bear Markets Happen for Different Reasons, but the Outcome Is Always the Same 27; Bear Markets Are Not Predictable 28; When Bear Markets “Turn,” They Make People on the Sidelines Look Silly 30;
The Market Is Volatile—Get Used to It 30; You Can’t Wait for Consumers to Feel Good 31; Learning to Accept the Bear Markets 33; Miscalculating the Risk of Market Timing 34; But What If I Am Perfect? 34;
Lump-Sum Investing versus Dollar-Cost Averaging 36; Learning to Fly 40; Avoiding Mistake #1—Market Timing 41; Mistake #2 Active Trading 43; The History of Active Trading 44; Active Investment Managers Lose to Indexing 45;
Newsletters Lose to Indexing 45; Active Mutual Funds Lose to Indexing 45; Survivor Bias (a.k.a. Mutual Fund Performance Is Even Worse Than the Data Suggests) 47; What About the Winners, Huh? What About the Winners?! 48
Hedge Funds Lose to Indexing 51; Endowments—Misperception of Performance 56; Venture Capital (Sounds Sexy but Usually a Dog) 57; The Taxman Cometh (a.k.a. Dear Goodness, It Gets Worse) 59; Portfolio Activity Hurts Performance 59
But Doesn’t Active Management Work in a Down Market? 60; Why Indexes Win 61; But Indexing Results in Average Returns 62; S&P 500, Here I Come! 62; Avoiding Mistake #2—Active Trading 64;
Mistake #3 Misunderstanding Performance and Financial Information 65; Misunderstanding #1—Judging Performance in a Vacuum 65;
Misunderstanding #2—Believing the Financial Media Exists to Help You Make Smart Decisions (a.k.a. the Media Is Killing You) 67;
Misunderstanding #3—Believing That the Market Cares About Today 71; Misunderstanding #4—Believing an All-Time High Means the Market is Due for a Pullback 74; Misunderstanding #5—Believing Correlation Equals Causation 77;
October Is The Worst Month to Invest 77; Sell in May and Go Away 78; Misunderstanding #6—Believing Financial News Is Actionable 79; Misunderstanding #7—Believing Republicans Are Better for the Market Than Democrats 80
Misunderstanding #8—Overestimating the Impact of a Manager 82; Misunderstanding #9—Believing Market Drops Are the Time to Get Defensive 83; Avoiding Mistake #3—Misunderstanding Performance and Financial Information 84;
Mistake #4 Letting Yourself Get in the Way 85; Fear, Greed, and Herding 85; The Overconfidence Effect 89; Confirmation Bias 93; Anchoring 95; Loss Aversion 97; Mental Accounting 98
Recency Bias 100; Negativity Bias 103; The Gambler 105; Avoiding Mistake #4—Letting Yourself Get in the Way 106; Mistake #5 Working with the Wrong Advisor 107; Most Advisors Will Do Far More Harm Than Good 108;
Advisor Selection Issue #1—Custody 108; Advisor Selection Issue #2—Conflict 113; Test #1—Independent Advisor or Broker? 114; Investment Advisor Defined 114; Broker Defined 114; So What’s the Difference? 115;
Test #2—Pure Independent versus Independent and Broker 116; Test #3—Proprietary Funds versus No Proprietary Funds 117; A Final Thought on Conflicts 118; Advisor Selection Issue #3—Competence 119
Competence Check #1—Do the Advisor’s Credentials Meet Your Needs? 120; Competence Check #2—Is the Advisor Right for You? 120; Competence Check #3—Is the Advisor Following a Process That You Agree With? 120;
A Final Thought on Advisors—Principles 121; Avoiding Mistake #5—Choosing the Wrong Advisor 122; Mistake #6 No Mistaking 125; Rule #1: Have a Clearly Defined Plan 125; Rule #2: Avoid Asset Classes That Diminish Results 127;
Cash—The Illusion of Safety 127; The Illusion of Gold as a Way to Grow Wealth 129; Rule #3: Use Stocks and Bonds as the Core Building Blocks of Your Intelligently Constructed Portfolio 131; Rule #4: Take a Global Approach 138;
Rule #5: Use Primarily Index-Based Positions 140; Rule #6: Don’t Blow Out Your Existing Holdings 140; Rule #7: Be Sure You Can Live with Your Allocation 142; Rule #8: Rebalance 143; Rule #9: Revisit the Plan 144;
The Ultimate Rule: Don’t Mess It Up! 145; Portfolio Example 146; The “I Want to Beat the Market” Portfolio 146; The “I Need 7 Percent to Hit My Long-Term Retirement Goal” Portfolio 146;
The “Get Me What I Need for the Rest of My Life with the Least Volatility Possible” Portfolio 147; The “I Have More Money Than I Will Ever Need and I Want It to Grow with Minimal Volatility” Portfolio 148;
The “I Have More Money Than I Will Ever Need, Volatility Doesn’t Bother Me, and I Want It to Grow Along with the Market” Portfolio 148; A Path to Success: Intelligent Portfolio Construction 150; You’re the One 151; Conclusion Let’s Roll!! 153
References 155; Index 163