그냥 한번 읽어 보시기 바랍니다.
하두 선전 선동이 난무 하고, 서방 언론들만 설치고 있써서니..무엇이 어떻게 진행 되고 잇는지 도무지 알 수 없습니다.
시작한 전쟁이니 ...끝도 잇을 것이고..
그 끝 이후 무엇이 어떻게 바꿧는가를 보면....전쟁이 어떻게 진행되엇는가를 추측해 볼 수 잇을 것인데..
이는 미래의 일입니다.
아래글은 이스라엘의 공격으로 하마스의 군사적인 힘은 약화되엇지만, 정치적인 힘은 오히려 다 강력해 졋다고 하엿습니다.
즉....종전이후에도 하마스의 위상과 역할에는 변화가 없을 것이다는 글인데..
필자는 미국의 아프카니스탄의 실패에 이스라엘의 의도를 빗댓습니다.
이 말이 사실인지는 ...그때 가서 보면 확인 할 수 잇겟지요..
한국전쟁이 끝난지 70년이 넘엇지만,,,
아직도 한국 전쟁에 대해서는 신뢰할 만한 주의 주장을 찾기 어렵습니다..
우리 세대가 살아 잇는 동안은 ...여전할 것이고...또
우리 세대 이후의 세대라고 하여 달라질 것으로 보이지도 않습니다..
철든 다음에야 접하게된 우크라인 전쟁이나 하마스 학살이 준 교훈이 잇다면..
누가 무슨 말을 하더라도 절대 믿지 말라는 ......것이 아닐까 싶습니다..
진실??
개나 주라고 하지요..
역사 자체가 프로파겐다인데...역사의 진실 운운 하는 것은 ...한 마디로 개 소리지요..
역사의 진실을 찾겟다......며...뽕 처 맞은 놈들 처럼 미처 날튀지 말고
역사의 진실을 원한다면 권력을 잡으세요..
힘이 곧 진실입니다..
‘Hamas has never been stronger’: Israel is stuck in a war it can’t win
West Jerusalem claims it’s close to defeating Gaza’s militants but the facts show otherwise
© RT / RT
Through April, the IDF had targeted more than 32,000 military sites belonging to Hamas and its allies. In June, Israel announced that 15,000 of the group's militants had been eliminated. But experts are certain those measures won’t eradicate the Islamic group that has been in charge of Gaza since 2007.
“We are advancing to the end of the stage of eliminating the Hamas terrorist army,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday, addressing the cadets of Israel National Defense College.
“I was very impressed by the achievements above ground and below ground, and by the commanders’ fighting spirit. With this spirit we will achieve our objectives: Returning our hostages, eliminating Hamas’ military and governing capabilities, ensuring that Gaza will not constitute a threat...” he added.
Since October 7, 2023 – when hordes of Hamas militants attacked Israel and killed more than 1,500 people – Israel has eliminated dozens of Hamas tunnels. It has seized weapons depots and cash, destroyed various military sites, killed operatives of Hamas and of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and captured thousands others.
Victory Is Still Remote?
But almost nine months in, Israel’s victory over Hamas still seems remote.
Before the deadly October 7 attack, the Islamic group that has been in control of the Strip since 2007, boasted five brigades or 25 battalions with a total number of active combatants standing at 30,000.
In June, Israel admitted that it had only eliminated half of that original force, or 15,000 Hamas combatants. On Tuesday evening, the country’s chief of staff, Herzi Halevi, said Israeli forces had killed at least 900 militants in Rafah, south of the Strip.
Reports suggest that Hamas is now actively recruiting new cadets, many of whom are 18 year-olds, to replenish its ranks, but even if they fail to reach their initial numbers, the existing battalions are more than enough to challenge Israel.
Just on Monday, Hamas militants fired twenty rockets from Khan Yunis at Israel’s southern communities, showing they are still capable of putting up a fight. Areas that had been vacant of Hamas before are now seeing a resurgence. Israeli soldiers continue to fall in the Strip, almost on a daily basis, with the total number already exceeding 670.
“I don’t believe Israel can destroy Hamas completely,” said Shadi Abdelrahman, a political analyst and native of Gaza who left the Strip shortly before the war.
“Hamas is not like any other group. They are not outsiders. They have an ideology connected to a cause, and that cause is to fight for their lands or to avenge the death of their loves ones,” he added.
Stemming from the Muslim Brotherhood, a radical Islamist organization that’s deemed terrorist by many regional and international players, Hamas was established in Gaza in late 1980s as a response to what they call Israeli occupation and the inability of other Palestinian factions, including Fatah, to confront it. But they were far more than just a group that wanted to resist Israel militarily. Just like their patrons, the Muslim Brotherhood, they were a social movement: they established schools and hospitals, they ran charities and served as mediators in family feuds, and that made them an indispensable part of the Gazan society.
“Socially speaking, Hamas of today doesn’t have that much power and cannot provide what it used to before, simply because they cannot move freely due to Israel’s heavy shelling,” explained Abdelrahman.
“Militarily, their capabilities have also been damaged. The stocks of their weapons have been depleting, many tunnels have been destroyed, infrastructure has been devastated. Their combatants must be exhausted as they have been fighting for a long time. But from the political point of view, Hamas has never been stronger,” added the analyst.
According to a recent poll, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, 67% of Palestinians – both in the West Bank and Gaza – believe that Hamas was right in launching the deadly October attack, while 61% said they would want to see Hamas, not any other group, control the Strip after the war.
Holding on to power
Hamas is already taking steps in that direction. Leading fierce negotiations with Israel through Egyptian and Qatari mediators, Hamas says loud and clear that it has no intention to relinquish its power when the war is over. Israel insists it will only stop the current confrontation if Hamas is out of the picture. But an Egyptian official involved in the talks between Israel and the Islamic group, who agreed to speak on condition of anonymity, said the Jewish state will not have any other choice but to let Hamas play a role in the governing force of the enclave when the conflict ends.
“Israel doesn’t want to see Hamas going back to power but, whether they like it or not, Hamas will play a role in the future government of the Strip, probably together with the Palestinian Authority.”
Officials in Jerusalem, however, seem to have other plans. Reports suggest that Israel is mulling assuming military control over the enclave that would gradually be replaced by the rule of moderate Arab states. Once things stabilize, Israel would then hand over the keys to the Palestinians, but this would be new players, neither Hamas, nor the Palestinian Authority, whom Israel has been accusing of supporting and funding terror.
Mistakes of the past
However, Miriam Wardak, a former aide to Afghanistan’s national security advisor, says the actions of Israel remind her of the behavior of the US two decades ago.
In 2001, after the deadly 9/11 attacks, the US invaded Afghanistan in a bid to collapse the rule of the Taliban, a radical Islamist organization. In addition to intense military pressure, the US and its allies also tried to bolster secular local governance, but two decades and $2.3 billion later, Washington failed to achieve its goal. In August 2021, the Taliban seized power again, and US forces had no choice but to pull out.
Looking back at the events that led to that fiasco, Wardak says Washington and its allies “struggled to establish strong, sustainable local governance and security forces,” a circumstance that led to widespread corruption and inefficiency within the Afghan government. They also failed to drain the support of external actors, to tackle the Taliban’s ability to exploit local grievances, and they couldn’t cope with the group’s guerrilla tactics that undermined US and Afghan forces.
Now, the former aide says, Israel seems to be repeating these mistakes.
“To start off, Israel – just like the US – might be underestimating its rival’s ability to adapt, survive and maintain support despite intense military pressure. Secondly, Israel may not be sufficiently addressing the external support Hamas receives from regional actors. Thirdly, Israel’s heavy military operations that cause significant civilian casualties only increase local and international opposition, and what’s worse they also lead to further radicalization,” she argued.
Wardak is certain that destroying Hamas will be a tough nut to crack. Drawing lessons from the American experience in Afghanistan, she believes military pressure cannot be the only answer.
“To effectively address the threat posed by Hamas, Israel should consider a multifaceted approach. To begin with, it needs to improve the living conditions in Gaza. It should support the development of legitimate and effective Palestinian governance structures that can counterbalance Hamas’s influence.”
“Furthermore, Israel should work closely with international partners to apply diplomatic and economic pressure on Hamas while avoiding actions that alienate the broader Palestinian population. Conducting precise, intelligence-driven operations to weaken Hamas’s military capabilities while minimizing civilian casualties is essential. Finally, exploring opportunities for indirect dialogue and conflict resolution mechanisms could help reduce hostilities and create conditions for a long-term political solution,” she summed up.
흔히 소련의 아프카니스탄 실패와 미국의 아프카니스탄 실패를 동격으로 취급합니다.
약소국의 입장...민주주의적인 입장에서야 이런 몰아치기가 통쾌한듯 느껴 지겟지만...우선 사실과 다르고..
그런 몰아치기의 맹점은 ...공통된 작은 것으로 전체를 일반화 시킨다는 것입니다.
소련도 미국도 아프카니스탄에서 실패 한 그 결론은 같습니다.
그런데 그 명분이나 과정 내용에서 다른것이 너무 많고
냉전시대의 이데오르기 싸움이 한창이던 시절이 아니고...진영을 바꿔 소련과 미국을 바꿔 놓고 본다면
소련의 실패가 미국의 실패와 같다고 말 한다면 빠가 지요...아님 정신질환자던지..
우선, 소련의 아프칸침공은 테러와의 전쟁 이라는 해괴망칙한 그 명분 부터 다릅니다.
사회주의 정권의 사회주의적인 개혁에 저항 햇던 아프칸 민족주의자들이나 이슬람 세력들의 군사적 위협을 막기 위한
아프칸정부의 도움 요청으로 이루어진 것이 서방측이 말하는 아프카니스칸 침공이고...이런것을 침공이라 말 할 수 잇다면
1차대전 이나 2차 대전의 미국의 참전도 다....침공이 됩니다...미국의 두 차레에 거친 독일 침공...이라 표현 해야 합니다.
친소 정권시절...아프카니스탄은 가장 많은 사회개혁을 이루어 냇습니다....
빈곤층에 주택이 제공되엇고, 여성들의 인권이 시장되어 ..대학공부가 허용이 되엇고...힙잡을 쓰지 않고 미니 스커트를 입고 거리를 활보 할 수 잇엇습니다..
이런변화에 대한 종교집단과 수구꼴통들의 저항을 미국은 아프칸 독재에 대한 민주진영의 저항이라 나발 거렷지만
개가 웃을 소리고..
미국이 아프칸 점령기간동안에도 구 소련 친 소 정권이 햇던 꼭 같은 짓을 햇습니다..
이런 변화에 대한 텔리반의 저항을 ...그들은 테러리스트들이라고 극열하게 비난하고 철쩌하게 때려 부셧습니다..
그런데 미군은 친소 정권시절 만큼의 개혁도 민주화도 이루어 내지 못햇고...이쪽 저쪽 모두의 저항을 받앗습니다.
소련의 철수 이후 친소 정권의 붕괴와 미군의 철수 이후 친미 정권의 붕괴도 사실과는 매우 다릅니다.
소련 철수 이후 친소 정권은 하 세월을 권력으로써 버저시 건재 하엿고...
아프칸 전체에 대한 통제는 아니지만 정부로써의 기능을 햇습니다.
이 친소정권이 붕괴한 것은 ...소련의 붕괴이후 더 이상 소련으로부터의 지원이 불 가능 하게 된 이후 입니다.
반면
미군이 철수 한후 세운 친미정권은 미군의 잔여 병력이 채 아프칸을 빠저 나가기도 전에 붕괴햇지요..
친소 정권의 붕괴와는 전혀 다릅니다..
소련도 미국도 아프카니스탄에서 실패한 것은 사실입니다.
그런데 소련이 시도한 사회주의 개혁은 어느정도 성과를 냇습니다
그런데 미국이 시도한 민주화는 미군이 철수 하는 순간에 날라갓습니다.
흥미로운 것은...소련이 시도한 사회주의 개혁이나 미군이 시도햇던 민주화의 내용이 대동소이 하다는 것입니다..
그런데 왜 친소 정권은 소련군 철수 이후에도 건재 할 수 잇엇고
미군이 세운 친미정권은 미군 철수후 찰라도 견대지 못하고 붕괴하엿을까요??
무엇이 그런 엄청난 차이를 만들엇을까??.......그리고
왜 그 잘난 서구 언론들. 자칭 서구의 지성이란 것들은 이런 것을 주제로도 만들지 못 하는 것일까??
그들이 진정한 언론과 지성이엇다면....당연히 이런것이 주요 주제가 되엇겟지요...
하지만 갸들은 돈에 팔려 다니는 갈보들과 꼭 같습니다....다만
갈보는 죶 구멍을 팔아 돈을 버는데...
야들은 글과 주둥이를 팔아 돈을 번다는 차이만 잇지요..
fact만 보라...............너엄 촘스키..
By Elizabeth Blade, RT Middle East correspondent