(May 13, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

[kyonmanchung]

(May 13, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

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영국경제가 일시적 침체에 빠짐에 따라 중앙은행의 금리인상이 지연되고 있고, SpaceX사는 업데이트 된 새 로켓(Block-5 edition, 10회 이상 재사용 가능) 발사에 성공함으로써 국제우주정거장에 유인 우주선을 실어 나를 수 있는 자격을 확보하였습니다. 한편 세계 무기거래가 시리아 및 예멘 내전사태로 초미의 관심을 끄는 가운데 미국의 무기시장 지배 (34%점유)가 확고해졌습니다.

1. Interest rates on hold as Bank cuts growth outlook - BBC News

- 지난 목요일 영란은행(The Bank of England)이 기준금리를 0.5%로 동결하면서, 영국 경제가 ‘경기상승 중에 일시적 침체’(temporary soft patch)에 빠졌다고 발표하였습니다. 아울러 영국의 금년도 경제성장 전망치를 종전(2월) 1.8%에서 1.4%로 하향조정하고, 경기침체 요인을 전적으로 지난 3월의 악천후에 의한 건설투자 및 소비 감소 탓으로 돌림.

경제학자들은 BOE가 이달에 금리를 0.75%로 인상할 것으로 예상하였지만 경제상황 악화로 불발. Mark Carney영란은행 총재는 연내에 기준금리가 인상될 수 있을 것이라고 했고, 시장에서는 올 연말 한번, 내년 한번, 내후년 한번 금리인상을 예상하네요. 한 전임 금융통화위원은 영란은행이 현 경제침체를 제대로 파악하지 못했다고 지적하면서, 계속되는 저금리와 불확실성(Brexit) -> Pound화 약세 -> 물가상승 -> 소비 위축을 초래하였다고 주장.

<생각>

영국의 3월 물가가 전년대비 2.5% 상승했는데 올 경제성장률이 1.4%로 떨어진다면 실질국민소득이 감소하게 됨. 한국은 올해 3.0% 성장 전망(한은 및 IMF)

2. SpaceX launches new rocket primed for future crewed missions | Reuters

Joey Roulette

- 지난 금요일 SpaceX(CEO, Elon Musk)사가 최소 10회 이상 재사용 가능한 새 버전의 Falcon 9 rocket(Block-5 edition)을 성공리에 발사하였습니다. 이 rocket booster는 방글라데시 통신위성을 지구 궤도에 올려 놓은 뒤, 지구로 되돌아와 태평양상의 무인 선박에 무사히 착륙하였는데, 이는 24번째 무사 착륙 귀환이며, 이 중 11개는 재사용 되었다고 하는군요.

이번 발사성공이 특히 의미를 갖는 것은 SpaceX사가 국제우주정거장(ISS, International Space Station)에 우주인을 실어나룰 수 있는 자격을 얻게 된 것. NASA는 ISS에 우주인을 실어 나를 수 있는 자격을 7회이상 발사 성공한 경우로 제한하고 있는데 이번에 새 Falcon 9 rocket이 이를 완성한 것. 그 동안 ISS행 유인 우주선은 러시아 로켓이 거의 담당해 왔고, SpaceX는 ISS용 화물만 실어 날라 왔음.

올해 SpaceX사는 지구궤도 진입 Rocket을 9번 발사(작년 동기간에는 5회)하였는데, 앞으로 새 버전의 reusable Block-5 Rocket을 사용하여 더 잦은 발사가 예상됨. 나아가 SpaceX사는 화성에 유인우주선을 실어 보낼 super-heavy rocket(Big Falcon Rocket로 명명)을 선 보일 계획이라고 하는군요.

3. Which country dominates the global arms trade? - BBC News

-”어느 나라가 세계 무기거래를 지배할까요?” Syria와 Yemen의 내전이 계속되는 가운데 미국 러시아 중국간 무력 경쟁이 배가됨에 따라 세계의 무기 거래(arms trade)가 초미의 관심을 불러 일으키고 있습니다.

한 연구기관(Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Sipri)에 따르면, 무기산업(좋은 말로 방위산업)은 연간 거래량이 $100bn에 달하는 번성하는 산업으로 지난 5년간(2013-2017) 거래량이 그 전 5년간 대비 10% 증가하였다고 함. 그리고

이 통계는 공식 계약거래만 포함하며, 실제 무기 거래량은 이보다 훨씬 많다고 하네요. 세계 무기수출 1위는 당연히 미국이고 이어 러시아, 프랑스, 독일, 중국, 영국, 스페인, 이스라엘, 이태리, 네덜란드 순. 미국은 전 세계 무기 수출의 34% 비중을 차지(5년전 점유율 30%보다 4%p 늘어 남). 이에 비해 러시아는 무기 수출이 지난 5년간 7.1% 감소하여 미국보다 58% 적음(World’s supremacy하락 및 경제침체에 기인하겠죠?).    

미국 무기의 주 고객은 Saudi를 비롯한 중동국가들로서 전체의 반 정도를 차지. 중동의 무기 수입은 지난 10년간 2배 증가했는데 시리아와 예멘 내전 사태에 기인.

<참고>예멘 내전은 이란의 군사지원을 받는 Houthi반군(시아파)이 Hadi 대통령 정부를 전복하려는 시도에서 발발(2015년) -> Saudi(수니파) 등 연합군, 미국과 유럽에서 수입한 무기로 반군 지역 무차별 공습 ->다수 시민 및 어린이 사망 ->윤리적 이유로 대부분 유럽은 무기수출 중단.

한편 중국은 경제성장과 더불어 국방예산이 대폭 증가(2017년 $150bn 세계2위, 미국 $602bn)하고, 이를 토대로 세계5위 무기수출국이 됨(지난 5년 38% 증가). 더욱 주목할 점은 중국의 국방 기술력 향상. 서방의 공군력 우세는 위협받기에 이르렀고, 2000년이래 전함 제조는 일본, 한국, 인도의 합계보다 많으며, 최근 4년간 전함 건조가 현 프랑스 보유 전함보다 많음. 우와.

<생각>방위산업, 한국은?

최근 남북한 정상회담(?)후 군대 안 가도 된다는 풍문이 돌고, 주식시장에선 방위산업체 주식이 폭락(반면 경협주 폭등)하는 현상을 보면서 사뭇 걱정 되더군요. 생각건대, 방위산업은 첨단 항공산업, 우주산업, 정밀기계산업 등 미래산업과 직결 되고, 무엇보다 국가방위를 위해 필요한 산업인 바, 통일(또는 비핵화)와 무관하게 지속 육성해야 할 것임.

정견만 드림

1. Interest rates on hold as Bank cuts growth outlook - BBC News

• 10 May 2018

The Bank of England said the UK economy has hit a "temporary soft patch" as it kept interest rates on hold at 0.5%.

The Bank cut its growth forecast for the year to 1.4%, down from the forecast of 1.8% made in February.

The Bank says that cut is almost entirely due to the disruption to the economy caused by bad weather in March.

However, Bank governor Mark Carney said in an interview with BBC economics editor Kamal Ahmed that "it's likely" rates will rise this year.

In a press conference after the rates decision was announced, Mr Carney said the "underlying pace of growth remains more resilient than the headline data suggests".

As recently as February economists were expecting the Bank to raise interest rates this month.

That view changed after figures released last month showed that the economy grew by just 0.1% in the first three months of the year.

The slowdown was caused by the Beast from the East - severe weather which shut down construction sites, kept shoppers at home and caused transport chaos.

However, the Bank described that as a "temporary soft patch" with "few implications" for the outlook for the economy.

The financial markets are now indicating there will be an interest rate increase towards the end of the year followed by another in 2019, and a further one in 2020.

• Live reaction to the Bank's decision
• What would a rate rise mean for me?
• UK economy in weakest growth since 2012
• UK inflation falls to lowest in a year

Movements in the Bank's official rates can have big effects on UK households. A rise would mean that about four million households with variable or tracker rate mortgages would see an increase in their monthly payments, while an increase would benefit the nation's 45 million savers.

Mr Carney sets interest rates with a team of eight other experts that form the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

At the latest meeting, seven members voted to keep interest rates on hold and two, Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders, voted for an increase.

"It looks like the 2018 rate hike has been delayed not cancelled," Fitch Ratings chief economist Brian Coulton said.

However, former MPC member Andrew Sentance said the Bank had "totally misunderstood" the economic slowdown. He said persistent low interest rates and uncertainty over their future direction were undermining the pound and hurting consumers by causing inflation.

2. SpaceX launches new rocket primed for future crewed missions | Reuters

Joey Roulette

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (Reuters) - An updated version of the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, tailored for eventual crewed missions for NASA, made its debut launch on Friday from Florida’s Cape Canaveral carrying a communications satellite for Bangladesh into orbit.

The newly minted Block-5 edition of the Falcon 9 - equipped with about 100 upgrades for greater power, safety and reusability than its Block-4 predecessor - lifted off at 4:14 p.m. EDT (2014 GMT) from the Kennedy Space Center.

Minutes later, the rocket’s main-stage booster flew itself back to Earth to achieve a safe return landing on an unmanned platform vessel floating in the Pacific Ocean.

The recoverable Block-5 booster is designed to be reused at least 10 times with minimal refurbishment between flights, allowing more frequent launches at lower cost - a key to the SpaceX business model.

Enhanced rocket reusability also is a core tenet of SpaceX owner and billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk’s broader objectives of making space travel commonplace and ultimately sending humans to Mars.

SpaceX has safely return-landed 24 of its boosters and reflown 11 of them.

Friday’s flight marked the ninth SpaceX launch so far this year, compared to five orbital-class missions the company had logged at the same point in 2017, according to Musk.

It came a day after the original launch countdown was halted one minute before blastoff time due to a technical problem detected by the rocket’s onboard computers. Friday’s second attempt by SpaceX, formally known as Space Exploration Technologies, appeared to have gone off without a hitch.

The rocket’s payload, the Bangladeshi government’s first communications satellite, Bangabandhu-1, was placed into Earth orbit at 4:47 p.m. EDT, just 33 minutes after launch, according to SpaceX.

The achievement was hailed by Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in a livestream appearance from her country’s capital, Dhaka.

“Today is a very delightful and glorious day for our motherland, Bangladesh, and Bangalee nation,” she said. “With launching of Bangabandhu Satellite-1, we are hoisting our national flag in the space.”

The Block-5 also marks another milestone for Musk’s California-based company. It is expected to be the first SpaceX vehicle to satisfy NASA’s standards for its Commercial Crew Program to carry agency astronauts to the International Space Station. NASA requires seven successful flights before the new rocket receives final certification for a manned mission.

Besides missions to the space station, the new rocket will be used to launch U.S. Air Force global positioning satellites and other high-value, military and national security payloads.

Block-5 marks the final version of the Falcon 9 lineup before SpaceX introduces its super heavy-lift launch vehicle, dubbed the Big Falcon Rocket, or BFR, which will be designed to send manned missions to Mars.

SpaceX is one of two private companies hired by NASA to ferry astronaut crews to the space station. The other is Boeing Co.

3. Which country dominates the global arms trade? - BBC News

By Tim Bowler Business reporter, BBC News

• 10 May 2018

Brutal civil wars in Syria and Yemen, coupled with the return of great power rivalries between the US, Russia and China, have brought the world's arms trade into sharp focus.

And unsurprisingly it is a thriving global industry, with the total international trade in arms now worth about $100bn (£74bn) per year, Pieter Wezeman, senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), tells the BBC.

In its latest figures, the defense industry think tank says that major weapons sales in the five years to 2017 were 10% higher than in 2008-12.

And it is the United States that is extending its lead as the globe's number one arms exporter, adds Sipri.

It estimates that the US now accounts for 34% of all global arms sales, up from 30% five years ago, and are now at their highest level since the late 1990s.

"The US has been open to supplying arms to a large variety of recipients, and there are a large number of countries ready to acquire weapons from the US," says Mr Wezeman.

The US's arms exports are 58% higher than those of Russia, the world's second-largest exporter. And while US arms exports grew by 25% in 2013-17 compared with 2008-12, Russia's exports fell by 7.1% over the same period.

It is Middle East states that have been among the US's biggest customers - Saudi Arabia tops the list - with the region as a whole accounting for almost half of US arms exports during 2013-17.

Yemen's civil war

This comes as arms imports to the region have doubled over the past 10 years, driven by widespread conflicts across the area - most notably the civil wars in Syria and in Yemen, which the UN has called the world's worst man-made humanitarian disaster.

Since Yemen's civil war started in 2015, Saudi Arabia and eight other Arab states have carried out an air campaign in support of forces loyal to President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi.

These are fighting Houthi rebels said to be backed militarily by Iran.

The UN says that as of last November, at least 5,295 civilians had been killed and 8,873 wounded, although the actual figures are likely to be much higher.

The bitter conflict in Yemen has brought the ethical issues of international arms sales into sharp relief in many western countries, which have seen Saudi Arabia and its allies use their advanced weapons systems in the country.

"Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates were major arms importers anyway," says Sipri's Pieter Wezeman. "The major difference is that now they are using these weapons - in Yemen."

The UN says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes continue to be the leading cause of child casualties as well as overall civilian casualties.

Meanwhile, rebel forces have fired artillery indiscriminately into cities such as Taizz and Aden, killing civilians, and also fired rockets into southern Saudi Arabia.

"There is a clear risk that arms sales contribute to human rights violations," says Oliver Feeley-Sprague, arms trade expert at Amnesty International.

"There are clear violations being committed by all sides. But in general, the more weapons get supplied, the more they risk being used."

The scale of the war in Yemen has led some countries to act: Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden and Germany among others, have all recently restricted arms sales to the region.

China's growth

Across in China, its economic rise has been mirrored by a growing defense budget and its increasing importance as a global arms supplier.

The country is now the world's fifth largest seller of arms. This puts it behind the US, Russia, France, and Germany, but ahead of the UK.

China's arms exports rose by 38% between 2008-12 and 2013-17, and the country now has the world's second-largest defence budget after the US - $150bn compared to the latter's $602bn in 2017.

As China spends more on its defence industries, it means that it is it is also increasingly challenging the West when it comes to the technological sophistication of its weapons systems, says Meia Nouwens, research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

"There should be no doubt that the PLA [People's Liberation Army] today is no longer far behind the West when it comes to certain areas of defense technology," she says. "The West's superiority in the air is under growing threat.

"China may not yet be able to produce high-performance military jet engines, but with the rate they are innovating they are not light-years away from being able to do it."

China's increased military spending comes as it is moving from being a land-based military to becoming a naval-based power - and has poured huge sums into its growing navy.

Since 2000 it has built more warships than Japan, South Korea and India combined - the total tonnage of new warships and auxiliaries launched in the last four years is greater than that of the French navy. Other countries across, such as Japan and India have responded by spending more on naval power.

"China has grown at a staggering rate, economically, and is seeking to transform that into a military power that is consistent with a regional hegemonic position," says Veerle Nouwens, research analyst at Royal United Services Institute (Rusi).

Part of this strategy includes China's efforts to export its arms. It sold weapons to 48 countries during 2013-17, with Pakistan being its top customer, and it is making inroads into some of Russia's traditional export markets.

"They are both selling to similar customers - countries that the west won't sell arms to - like Iran, Venezuela, Sudan and Zimbabwe," says Dr Lucie Beraud-Sudreau of the IISS.

African conflicts

In a world where arms sales are rising, the major exception to this seems to have been Africa. Between 2008-12 and 2013-17 arms imports by African countries fell by 22%.

Yet crucially, the figures here do not tell the whole story. Internationally, arms sales are measured by the total value of the contract - but this downplays the significance of small arms and light weapons to continuing conflicts in Africa, most notably South Sudan's civil war.

"We are not seeing significant reductions in the fighting in South Sudan, and this is clearly being fuelled by significant purchases of small arms and light weapons," says Amnesty International's Oliver Feeley-Sprague.

"For instance, three shiploads of machine guns, which would make a huge difference to armed groups on the ground, yet would not even show up in the statistics."

In 2014 the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) came into force, with the aim of regulating the international trade in conventional weapons.

It requires states to monitor arms exports, and ensure that their weapons sale don't break existing arms embargoes, or end up being used for human-rights abuses, including terrorism. Yet so far its impact has been limited, say critics.

"We are disappointed by the way a number of states have decided to implement it, says Amnesty's Oliver Feeley-Sprague.

"We think the UK, US and France among others, by continuing to sell arms to Saudi Arabia and its allies in the coalition operation in Yemen, are clearly violating the ATT's provisions."

Last July, the UK's High Court ruled that the UK government's arms sales to Saudi Arabia are lawful.

However, the Campaign Against the Arms Trade (CAAT) has been given permission to appeal against this ruling, and the case will now go to the Court of Appeal.

The UK government says it has "one of the most robust export control regimes in the world".

The ATT may have had a bigger impact on curbing the flow of weapons to non-state actors, says Sipri's Pieter Wezeman - but so far it has not had any visible impact on the overall trade in arms.

China's CATL to supply car batteries to Nissan and Renault - Nikkei Asian Review

Deal smooths auto makers' entry into growing Chinese electric vehicle market

Nikkei staff writers May 11, 2018 04:05 JST

TOKYO -- Top Chinese automotive battery maker CATL will provide lithium-ion batteries to Nissan Motor and Renault, accelerating its push to expand business with global carmakers.

CATL, or Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd., will produce batteries for Nissan's Sylphy Zero Emission electric sedan, scheduled to hit the Chinese market in the latter half of the year. This marks the company's first deal with a Japanese automaker.

The Sylphy -- one of the 20 electrified vehicles Nissan plans to release in China over the next five years -- is slated to become Nissan's first electric vehicle mass-produced there. It is expected to offer a driving range of 338km under the Chinese measurement method.

Electric cars powered with batteries from government-designated manufacturers, which are mostly Chinese producers, will be given priority in receiving subsidies. Nissan decided to procure batteries from CATL as it seeks to balance cost and quality.

The Fujian-based producer is eager to secure more Japanese clients and plans to open a sales and development support hub in Yokohama later this month.

Renault, which is part of a three-way alliance with Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors, has also tapped CATL. The French automaker plans to use CATL batteries for the electric version of its Kangoo compact van under development. CATL already supplies such European automakers as BMW and Volkswagen and hopes to leverage the Renault deal to further solidify its foothold in Europe.

Chinese authorities approved last month CATL's plans to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The battery maker is expected to procure 13.1 billion yuan ($2.06 billion) from its initial public offering, which could come as early as summer. The funds are expected to be used to boost output capacity, launching mass production plants in the U.S. and Europe as well.

CATL aims to have battery output equivalent to 30 gigawatt-hours by the end of 2019, raising it to the equivalent of 50gwh by 2020 from 23gwh in 2017.

CATL's automotive battery business has soared since the company's 2011 founding, thanks in part to support from the Chinese government. Sales jumped 34% to 19.9 billion yuan for the year ended December, while net profit grew 31% to 3.9 billion yuan. With battery shipments hitting 12gwh in 2017, CATL has grown into a world-class player rivaling Panasonic in the automotive battery business.

Chinese regulations for so-called new-energy vehicles will come into force next year, requiring automakers to produce and sell a certain volume of such vehicles as electrics and plug-in hybrids in the country. Strengthening ties with CATL will likely be essential for carmakers as competition in the world's largest auto market heats up.

[도드람]

지속적으로 올려 주시니 매번 감사 합니다

[모러바(volt)]

매번 감사합니다.계속읽어보니 많은 공부가 됩니다.또,술자리서 여기서 읽은 내용을 아는척 써먹기도 합니다.^*^
고맙습니다.