Donald Trump is close to securing the 2024 Republican presidential nomination after a winning streak in primaries. This makes a rematch against President Joe Biden feel inevitable. Trump's comeback will bring a tougher policy on China considering his previous anti-China rhetoric. Meanwhile, South Korea is one of the few countries in the world that has long historical ties with China and a critical alliance with the U.S. This reality puts pressure on Seoul. The intensifying U.S.-China rivalry will affect Korea's trade as well as technological development.
If the Republic front-runner is to return this Novermber, it is probable that he would consider imposing at least 60 percent tariffs on Chinese imports, as recently reported by the press. This is far stricter than his previous discussion of imposing a 10 percent tariff on almost all global imports. China will then suspend its purchases of U.S. products and impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. This trade war can have huge impact on South Korea. China is the main trade partner of Korea, occupying 20 percent of the exports. If the U.S continues with the tough stance on Chinese imports, It will also damage the exports of Korea used in Chinese products.
As the U.S. presidental campaign moves closer to a Turmp and Joe Biden rematch, neither candiate is applealing to China. No matter who takes the office, it will not change the direction of America's competion with China. On theat note, Chinese government is pouring money for its technological breakthrough to make the nation self-sufficient. China is enhancing its production in legacy foundries, seeking new routes in the technology race. If China dominates semiconductor market with substantial fund, Samsung Electronics's position as the world's second- largest foundry could be at stake. Chinese technological advancement influenced by the competition between the two countries, will have immense impact on South Korea's technological development.
Trump's return could be the biggest risk for numerous countries this year. However, intense US-China competition is not something new. While President Yoon has been focusing on diplomatic cooperation with the US, he needs to step up the efforts to deal with economic challenges and increase the funds for domestic technological development amid the fretful competitions. It’s time for Yoon to revise his foreign policy strategy, which has disregarded relations with China, and take actions to build up cooperation with China. |