[RW] WR Size & Red-Zone Efficiency

[TroyAikman8]

Rotoworld의 Fantasy writer인 Jonathan Bales가 WR들의 사이즈와 레드존 효율성의 상관관계에 대해 분석한 글입니다.. 이 글의 목적은 "Fantasy"구요.. 그리고 효율성은 전체 TD rate가 아니라 "Redzone 타겟시"가 되겠습니다..

혹여 T.Y.Hilton이나 Pierre Garcon이나 DeSean Jackson은 TD많이 하는데? 라고 하시면.. ㅎㅎ 그냥 재미로 봐주시기 바랍니다. 여기서 결론으로 내고 있는 것은 통계적으로 사이즈와 Redzone efficiency는 상관관계가 충분하고, 그중에서도 키보다는 몸무게가(220파운드, 약 100Kg에 가까울 수록..) 더 상관관계가 깊다는 이야길 하고 있네요..

작년 신인같은 경우 Tavon Austin을 뽑기보다, 사이즈가 있는 Keenan Allen을 뽑는게 판타지 점수에 더 도움이 된단 이야기죠..

참고로 여기 키가 그냥 인치로 표현되어있는 경우가 많습니다.. 72인치는 6피트, 73인치는 6피트 1(0.8인치), 74인치는 6피트 2(1.6인치) 정도로 보시면 되겠네요..

앞쪽 이야기는 Peyton Manning으로 인해 리시버들의 스탯이 인플레이션 되었다는 이야기입니다.. Fantasy Douche라는 analyst에 의하면 Reggie Wayne은 기본적으로 Bills의 Stevie Johnson이라는군요..물론 Wayne의 prime은 Peyton과 함께 했고 이후의 비교스탯은 전성기가 지난 것이므로 통계의 오류가 될 수도 있다고 봅니다..

원문 : http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/46279/311/wr-size--and--red-zone-efficiency?pg=1

WR Size & Red-Zone Efficiency

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

In my view, Peyton Manning is the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL, and it isn’t even close. The reason I believe that to be the case is because Manning was able to dominate the NFL and win a Super Bowl with the Colts despite a mediocre (at best) supporting cast. Manning’s ability to make those around him look much, much better than they are is unprecedented.

Prior to signing with the Broncos, Manning was particularly deprived of elite wide receiver talent. That’s right, I just said that in Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison, Manning was deprived of elite wide receiver talent in Indy. He had two decent receivers, but not a true No. 1.

I used to live right next to Harrison’s uncle when I was located in Philly, and according to him, Harrison was one of the greatest wide receivers of all-time. You can’t really get more biased than an uncle, but a lot of people seem to share that sentiment.

I disagree. Harrison’s numbers were out of this world, but I dare you to find me another dominant 185-pound No. 1 wide receiver. What’s more likely, that Harrison was somehow able to produce at a level no one even close to his size has ever reached mainly because of his own talent, or because he had Manning throw him passes?

I think Wayne might have actually been a better receiver than Harrison, but even he wasn’t a truly elite player.The Fantasy Douche has a nice article on Wayne that shows he’s basically Stevie Johnson:

Reggie Wayne vs. Stevie Johnson

Player	Stevie Johnson	Reggie Wayne
Draft Year	2008	2001
40 time	4.46	4.45
Weight	210	198
Ht	74	72
SOS(Schedule of Strength)	6.09	5.71
School	Kentucky	Miami (FL)
Drafted by	BUF	IND
Overall Pick	224	30
Share of College Team TDs	0.28	0.26
TD/G	1.00	0.91
Share of College Team Pass Yds	0.28	0.26
Y/G	80.08	68.64
Y/R	17.35	17.56

Johnson also out-produced Wayne between the ages of 23 and 25 in the NFL. Manning turned a lighter version of Johnson into a potential Hall-of-Famer.

One of the ways you can tell that Harrison and Wayne aren’t nearly as good as their numbers indicate is by looking at their touchdowns. From 1999 to 2006, Harrison scored at least 10 touchdowns in every single season. That’s outrageous. Surely some of that success is because Harrison was a good player, but there’s never been anyone at his size that’s been able to get into the end zone at a rate even close to that.

In believing that Manning is a world-class player—the best passer ever—we don’t need to really buck any sort of historical trends. All of the tools are there. That’s not the case with Harrison (or Wayne), who were clearly the beneficiaries of a quarterback who allowed them to hide obvious physical shortcomings.

Meanwhile, Wayne had the most red zone targets in the NFL from 2000 to 2013 with 201. To give you an idea of how many that is, consider that only three players (Wayne, Terrell Owens and Larry Fitzgerald) had over 170 and only 21 had even half as many as Wayne. That’s what will happen when you’re the No. 1 receiving option on Peyton Manning’s offense.

Wayne’s numbers were drastically inflated because of Manning moving the ball. Even with Manning, though, Wayne recorded just a 22.9 percent red zone touchdown rate. That’s actually slightly below average, which is about what you can expect from a receiver of his stature.

Finding the End Zone: The Importance of Size

Without Manning, Wayne has had some serious trouble getting the ball into the end zone. From 2003 (Wayne’s third season) until 2010 (Manning’s final season with Indy), Wayne scored an average of 8.1 touchdowns per year. In the three seasons after Manning’s final snap as a member of the Colts, Wayne scored 11 total times—3.7 per year.

The Colts should have done a better job of identifying a weakness in their roster that didn’t actually appear to be a weakness because Manning was so good. In 2012 and 2013 as a member of the Broncos, Manning was finally equipped with some big, dominant receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. He proceeded to lead the NFL in completion rate and net-YPA in 2012, then break the NFL records for passing yards and passing touchdowns in 2013. He threw 55 touchdowns at age 37.

Quarterbacks are slow to age, but there’s no way you can tell me that at age 37, after numerous serious neck surgeries, Manning was truly in his career prime. No, he was still playing at a high level, but he was finally given access to receivers with truly elite measurables and skill sets.

If all of that isn’t evidence enough of Manning’s greatness, consider that he made Dallas Clark look great. End of argument. 

The idea that the best wide receivers are typically big isn’t new, but I wanted to take some time to analyze wide receivers regarding red zone play. While certain players are more likely than others to score from 50 yards out, the majority of touchdowns come in the red zone, and they’re far, far more consistent.

Although all types of touchdowns are volatile from game to game, there’s a very, very strong long-term correlation between wide receiver size and red zone production. It’s very rare to find a short or light wide receiver who can consistently dominate in the red zone. You might see it over the course of a season or two, but over the long run, it basically ain’t happening unless you have Manning throwing you passes.

Before I get into the numbers, I want to note that because we can use size to predict red zone efficiency so well, it can be really useful for fantasy purposes. As fantasy owners, we want players who are going to score a lot of touchdowns, whether we’re deciding who to draft before the season or who to start in Week 4. We can use size (and college red zone efficiency) to predict that the 6’3”, 220-pound wide receiver who has started his NFL career slowly in terms of touchdowns will probably pick it up, or that the 5’10”, sub-200 second-year receiver who has scored on 35.0 percent of his red zone targets is highly unlikely to maintain that pace.

The Numbers on Red Zone Efficiency

Again, I’m analyzing wide receiver red zone efficiency because we can typically predict red zone production with decent accuracy; offenses will reach the end zone a certain number of times and specific types of receivers will produce at consistent rates.

I took a look at every wide receiver drafted since 2000 to see at least 35 red zone targets. Here’s the percentage of those red zone targets they converted into touchdowns, sorted by height.

Very obvious relationship between height and red zone efficiency. Overall, wide receivers who stand 6’3” or taller have converted over 27 percent of all red zone targets into scores, compared to 22 percent for receivers 6’0” or shorter - meaning on any given red zone target, a tall receiver is over 20 percent more likely to score than a short one. That’s a significant difference.

The numbers are even more distorted if we sort by weight.

While wide receivers checking in below 196 pounds have converted fewer than 20.9 percent of their red zone targets into touchdowns, those weighing 217 pounds or more have recorded a 28.4 percent red zone touchdown rate. That means the heaviest receivers are 35.9 percent more likely than the lightest receivers to convert a red zone target into a touchdown.

That suggests that weight is a better predictor of wide receiver scoring than height, which is represented in the overall numbers. The strength of the correlation between wide receiver height and red zone efficiency is 0.29. That’s strong, but not nearly as high as the correlation coefficient for weight and red zone efficiency—0.40. Height and weight themselves are of course strongly correlated (0.73), so there’s really good evidence that while height certainly helps pass-catchers in the red zone, weight is more important.

I’m assuming the heaviest receivers are also the best in the red zone because they’re also usually the strongest. Height and leaping ability probably help in certain situations, but wide receivers see far more “regular” targets than jump balls. Because of that—the fact that heavier receivers can shield off defenders and use their bodies to help them make plays on the football—I think we see the numbers come out the way they do.

To hammer home this idea, I charted the height and weight of the top 15 most efficient red zone receivers since 2000. First, the height…

The white dotted line represents the average height for an NFL wide receiver. That means every single one of the 15 most dominant red zone receivers has been taller than average, and most significantly so. Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith are the only receivers who are near the league average, and only Smith doesn’t have a ton of bulk for his size (he’s about average).

Most of the names on the list aren’t surprising—Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson, Terrell Owens, Larry Fitzgerald—but there are also some players who weren’t necessarily dominant overall but could still score consistently, such as Chris Henry, Ernest Wilford and Kenny Britt.

Let’s look at weight.

Only one wide receiver—Chris Henry—weighed less than the league average of 203 pounds. Torrey Smithchecks in just above that mark, but the rest of the pass-catchers are all significantly heavier. Of the top 15 red zone wide receivers since 2000, 12 have weighed over 215 pounds and seven over 220.
We also see two players in Calvin Johnson and Vincent Jackson approaching tight end territory in terms of size.

How have NFL teams used wide receivers in the red zone?

As usual, we see some inefficiencies in the way NFL teams utilize their players. Overall, they target short, light pass-catchers in the red zone way, way too much. That’s represented in the top 15 wide receivers in red zone targets since 2000.

Remember, no wide receiver who ranked in the top 15 in red zone efficiency was below the league average height, and only two were within an inch of it. Meanwhile, of the top 15 wide receivers in red zone targets, four check in below the league average receiver height, and five more are just above it. That’s nine of 15 wide receivers below or near the average height, compared to two in the red zone-dominant group. Quite a difference.

We see a similar effect regarding weight.

Six of the 15 most-targeted receivers check in well below the league-average weight. When you see a player like Santana Moss ranked in the top 15 in red zone targets, you know there’s a problem. I don’t care how many seasons he’s played; a player of Moss’s stature really shouldn’t even be on the field as his offense approaches the goal line.

Fantasy Implications of WR Red Zone Efficiency

Wide receiver red zone efficiency is very consistent from year to year; for the most part, we see the same types of players atop the list each season. Thus, we can use red zone play to help us target wide receivers with elite upside.

Preferably, we’d like our receivers to be at least 6’2”. If they’re very frail for that height, it might change. If possible, it’s suitable to have wide receivers in the 6’2” range also be bulky, such as Dez Bryant (222 pounds).

Height is good, but weight is even more important. As fantasy owners, we should be targeting wide receivers who can consistently get the ball into the end zone, and heavy receivers are far more likely to do that than light ones. Ideally, you want to target receivers who weigh more than 210 pounds, and preferably closer to 220 (or more).

The numbers should have profound implications on how you draft rookies and other young receivers. Because receivers drafted in the first round of the NFL draft typically cost so much more in dynasty and even redraft fantasy leagues than do second and third-rounders, it can make sense to let other owners overpay for Tavon Austin-type players while you snatch up the Keenan Allen-esque receivers—those with elite size and red zone ability who dropped too far in the NFL draft.

Red zone stats can also help you know when to buy low or sell high on certain receivers. When Percy Harvin had eight total touchdowns in his rookie season, we should have known that, due to his 5’11”, 184-pound frame, that number was probably close to his peak. Harvin had nine total touchdowns in 2011 (only six through the air), but he’s never been able to consistently score. Even in PPR leagues, Harvin has a rather low ceiling because he doesn’t have Dez Bryant/Calvin Johnson/Demaryius Thomas-esque red zone ability. He usually needs to score in unusual ways or do it from far out, both of which are volatile; we might see a 10-touchdown season from Harvin, but we might also see a three-touchdown year from him, even when healthy.

NFL에 관한 전문적/칼럼성 우수한 게시물 추천해주세요!!! (하단의 엄지 손가락 클릭)

추천이 5개 이상의 게시물은 "NFL & NCAA Football 심층해부!!!" 게시판으로 이동됩니다.

[Taylor]

아 댓글보다 아이작 부르스, 토리 홀트, 마샬 포크 나오니까 반갑네요ㅎㅎ 진정한 하이파워 오펜스를 보여주던 팀이고 테네시 팬들에겐 절망을 안겨준 팀이기도 하죠. 후엔 팻츠 다이너스티의 서막을 장식하기도 했구요. The biggest show on turf였나요? 아무튼 경기가 참 재밌던 팀입니다. 당시 마샬포크에게 반해서 포크 져지를 샀었죠. 리터너 하킴이었나요? Family name만 생각나는데 암튼 그 친구도 엄청 잘했고...참 매력적인 팀이었죠.

[엑스제로]

괜히 그 St Louis의 별명이 The Greatest Show on Turf가 아니죠 ㅋㅋ 당시 센세이셔널했을정도로 아주 멋진 팀이었고 인기가 많았죠. 한번만 더 우승했으면 dynasty라는 칭호를 얻을수도 있었지만 아쉽게도 almost dynasty에서 멈춰버렸네요. ㅋ대신 그 자리에 팻츠 다이너스티의 서막을..ㅎ Terry Holt와 Issac Bruce는 업적에 비해서 시스템 WR라는 평가 그리고 Kurt Warner와 Marshall Faulk때문에 상대적으로 엄청 과소평가당해서 아쉽네요. Az-Zahir Hakim. 이름이 어렵네요..-_- 언젠가 기회가 된다면 이팀에대해서도 한번 글을 써버고싶네요 ㅎ

[Taylor]

아 Greatest 였군요ㅋㅋ 혹시라도 이 팀 경기를 못보신 분들은 99시즌 타이탄스vs램스 슈퍼볼 경기 꼭 보시기 바랍니다. 스티브 멕네어, 에디조지, 저본 커스와 위에 언급한 램스 선수들까지...1 yard로 인해 게임이 갈리는 역대급 명경기라고 생각합니다.

[TroyAikman8]

네.. 제가 미쳤던게죠.. Denver원정 경기는 질거라고 생각해서 그냥 아쉬웠는데, Arrowhead경기는 초반 워낙 잘하길래 잡히진 않겠다 싶었거든요.. 그런데 정말 Peyton이 한끗차이로 위기를 벗어나면서 빅플레이 나오고 무너지니 어찌나 열받던지.. 그리고 변명이라면 우리애는 6살이지만 잔머리가 너무 발달해서..ㅠㅠ 제 심지에 불을 붙이더군요..ㅠ

[츄신슈]

안그래도 관심이 생겨서 엊저녁에 바로 찾아 보았습니다 ㅎㅎ 그걸 보고나니 그전의 챔피언쉽 게임을 보고 싶어지더군요... 몇년후 존그루덴과 함께 곧 우승하게 되는 토니 던지 벅스 디펜스와의 경기였던.. 그경기 어땟나요? 오래전 경기라 기억니 나실지 모르지만. 당시 상황이 궁금해 집니다..

[엑스제로]

1999 NFC Championship 말씀하시는거죠? 그 경기는 역시 공격은 망이지만 수비하나로 먹고살던 벅스와의 경기였는데 4쿼터 막판 Issac Bruce, Torry Holt, Marshall Faulk에 이어서 4,5번 옵션이었던 Ricky Proehl한테 4분남겨놓고 30야드 TD를 당햇는데 전체적으로는 Rams가 자랑하는 오펜스가 완전히 막혀버린 경기라고 봐도 무방할정도로 벅스가 만약 오펜스가 조금만 더 좋았더라면 경기양상이 달라지지 않았을까 싶네요. Bruce가 아마 Ronde Barber한테 shutdown당했지만 Rams의 오펜스시스템상 한명막는걸로 되는게 아니기때문에 오히려 Proehl이 100야드 리시빙하면서 결국 막판 TD까지 자기가 잡아내어서 영웅되었죠ㅋ

[엑스제로]

당시 TB 수비야 츄신슈님께서 이미 알고계실테니 굳이 얘기 안해도 될거같고. 결국 Sapp이 이끄는 Dline의 QB 압박으로 인한 Kurt Warner가 편하게 못던집니다. 색을 5번이나 당했으니깐요. 당연히 러싱도 안됨. 설사 시간이 주어지지 않으니 던지더라도 숏패스. Nickerson이나 Brooks의 LB한테 모조리 차단당하고. 피지컬한 Barber는 Bruce지우고. 그러나 역시 공격옵션이 많기에 마지막에 결국 벅스의 수비가 다는 못막았고 그게 30야드 TD로 이어진겁니다. 그것도 시즌중 단 한번도 TD를 잡아본적이 없는선수가 말이죠. 패스자체가 환상적으로 한거라서 두명이 잇었음에도 불구하고 워너가 WR만이 잡을수있또록 포지셔닝한게 대단했습니다.

[엑스제로]

근데 저도 그 경기를 본지 오래되어서 제가 설명한게 틀릴수도 있으니 기회되면 한번 보시길 바래요. 그런데 분명한것은 Kurt Warner가 던질 시간이 부족했을겁니다. 리듬이 깨지니 특유의 폭발적인 오펜스가 나올리가 없죠. 수비 분석 좋아하시는 츄신슈님이 흥미롭게 보실만한 경기일겁니다. 당연히 오펜스를 보시고 싶은면 바로 전경기인 미네소타와의 플옵경기를 보시면 좋을것같습니다

[Korea_mk]

당시 램스의 오펜스는 지금과는 트렌드가 많이 달랐죠. 하프백 마샬 포크를 리시버처럼 자주 사용했다는 면에서는 혁신적이었지만, 초보적인 수준이었고 아이작 브루스와 토리 홀트를 X리시버로 활용하는 게 키 포인트였던 걸로 기억합니다. 근데, 워너가 정말 좋은 선수였지만 단점이 릴리스 동작이 정말 느렸죠. 덕분에 빠른 패스러쉬에는 고전하는 경향이 있었구요. 역대급 선수인 워렌 샙의 패스 러쉬에 시종일관 패싱 게임이 고전을 면치 못했죠. 타이탄스와의 슈퍼볼에서도 타이탄스의 역대급 에지러셔인 제본 커스가 참 잘했는데, 막판에 괜히 세이프티 블리츠를 들어갔다가 롱밤 얻어맞는 최악의 결과가 나오고 말았죠.

[엑스제로]

저는 이당시 램스의 오펜스 중심은 물론 Kurt Warner와 두명의 WR도 중요했지만 역시 가장 중심은 Marshall Faulk라고 생각합니다. 이선수가 없었으면 Greatest Show on Turf는 지금보다 명성이 덜했을겁니다. 모든것을 다 할수있었거든요. 거의 완벽한 offensive weapon이라고 봐도 무방할정도로 최고였습니다. 아직까지도 현재 그와 같은 파괴력을 가진 선수는 존재하지 않으니깐요. 저는 워너의 리더쉽은 인정하지만 역시 오펜스 스킴의 중심은 Faulk였다고봅니다. 또한 말씀하신 패스러쉬에 당황하지 않는 선수가 어디있겠냐마는 Warner는 특히 말씀하신것처럼 쉽게 허물어뜨릴수있었습니다. 그게 TB전과 Tennessee전에서 잘 드러났죠.

[Korea_mk]

추가로 램스의 해당 별명은 워너-포크-브루스-홀트뿐만 아니라 수비수들조차 픽6를 정말 정말 자주 했던 기억이 있네요. 특히 작년인가 명전에도 갔던 세이프티 아레나스 윌리엄스가 픽6를 자주 했던 기억이 있습니다. SS에는 아담 아츌레타라는 신인급 선수가 enforcer 역할을 잘 해줬구요.

[엑스제로]

램스가 강했던 99-01년도때에 역시 공격에 비해서 수비가 덜 각광을 받지만 당시 램스의 오펜스못지않게 수비또한 엄청났습니다. 00년도 수비가 안좋았을때를 제외하고 99년 01년도 수비가 top 5안에는 들었을겁니다. 오펜스의 힘도 엄청낫지만 수비도 좋았기에 슈퍼볼 2회진출을 달성할수잇었쬬. ㅋㅋㅋ