이번주 수요 시사영어 강의 기사 : 손해 안 보는 현실적인 주식투자 방법은 있는가

[조국현]

이번 주에는

손해 안 보는 현실적인 주식투자 방법에 관한 내용을 가지고

영어훈련하겠습니다.

글쓴이는 장기적으로 볼 때

채권보다 주식이 몇 배 더 많은 수익을 가져다주는 것이 사실이지만,

주식투자를 한다고 무조건 돈을 버는 것은 아니라며

현명한 주식투자를 권하고 있습니다.

UC 버클리대 경제학 교수의 논리를 감상하시죠.

비록, 투자 관련 전문용어들이 몇 개 등장하지만

그런 어려운 표현들을 대충 제껴가며

글쓴이가 말하려는 맥을 잡아가는 훈련을 하시죠.

[책임 회피성 발언 : 모든 투자 결과는 본인 책임입니다]

Investment theory in practice


Suppose that you had invested your wealth in a broadly diversified set of stocks, starting in January 1871, with the dividends being rolled back into your portfolio, and with your portfolio being rebalanced every January to maintain diversification. If you had also paid no taxes and incurred no fees, you would have had 65,004 times your initial investment, as of this past January. By contrast, if you had performed the same experiment with long-term US Treasury bonds, you would have only 41 times your initial wealth. That is the difference between an average annual inflation-adjusted return of 7.3 percent for stocks and 2.5 percent for bonds -- 4.8 points per year, or what Rajnish Mehra and Edward C. Prescott called the “equity premium puzzle.”

Of course, neither of these strategies is possible in real life, since one also must pay commissions and deal with the price pressures of rebalancing one’s portfolio by selling winners and buying losers. Taxes, too, would take a big cut. They would be levied on your interest income from bonds, on your realized capital gains from stocks, and on the dividends that you received. Together, these costs would reduce your real return by perhaps one-third, leaving an equity premium for stocks of around 3.2 percentage points per year. That means a stock-market investor could make twice as much as the bond-market investor in 22 years, on average.

Before Edgar L. Smith published “Common Stocks as Long-Term Investments” in the 1920s, this basic fact about stock and bond investors was not widely known. Most people considered stocks highly “speculative,” because they focused more on the returns from individual stocks and on the high likelihood that any given corporation would fail to maintain its position in the marketplace over time. Betting on individual stocks was best left to gamblers, insiders with special information, or those who truly believed they had special insights into the business cycle. But most retail stock-pickers suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect (thinking that you are smarter than you really are), which is why their losses have long powered the gains of successful professional equity traders.

중략..........