There are plenty of wild statements being thrown around about artificial intelligence – from a threat to our jobs to a threat to the human race as we know it. So is this all hyperbole or are the fears actually based on some facts? We investigate.
So what is artificial intelligence?
The concept of artificial intelligence is that computer systems can be used to perform tasks that would normally require a human. These can range from speech recognition and translation into different languages, all the way through to visual perception and even decision making.
Broadly speaking, anything can be considered artificial intelligence if it involves a program doing something that we would normally think would rely on the intelligence of a human. Quite how this is achieved is not the point – just the fact that it can be done, is a sign of artificial intelligence.
The different levels of artificial intelligence
Within the realm of artificial intelligence, there are different classifications. They include:
Strong Vs Weak
Strong artificial intelligence refers to the work that looks to genuinely imitate a human – and that could potentially even explain the way humans think. Few examples of this exist, currently. Then there is weak artificial intelligence, which simply aims to build systems that are able to behave in the same manner as humans but do not have the aim of thinking as humans think.
Narrow Vs General
Another classification of artificial intelligence are those that are meant to meet certain tasks, known as narrow artificial intelligence; and those designed to reason, known as general artificial intelligence.
So what are the pros and cons of artificial intelligence?
There are several advantages and disadvantages associated with the concept:
The advantages
Dealing with mundane tasks
One massive advantage of artificial intelligence is its potential to complete mundane tasks through intricate automation that will increase productivity. Theoretically this can even remove “boring” tasks from humans and free them up to be increasingly creative.
Faster decisions
Using artificial intelligence alongside cognitive technologies can help make faster decisions and carry out actions quicker.
Avoiding errors
The phrase “human error” was born because humans, naturally, make mistakes from time to time. Computers however, do not make these mistakes – that is, of course, assuming they are programmed properly. With artificial intelligence, data could be processed error-free, no matter how big the dataset might be
Taking risks on behalf of humans
With artificial intelligence, you can arguably lessen the risks you expose humans to in the name of research. Take, for example, space exploration and the Mars rover, known as Curiosity. It can travel across the landscape of Mars, exploring it and determining the best paths to take, while learning to think for itself. Using artificial intelligence in this manner could potentially lead to massive benefits in areas such as demand forecasting, medical diagnosis and oil exploration.
The disadvantages
Job losses
There is little doubt that artificial intelligence will displace many low-skilled jobs. Arguably, robots have already taken many jobs on the assembly line – but now this could extend to new levels. Take, for example, the concept of driverless cars, which could displace the need to have millions of human drivers, from taxi drivers to chauffeurs, very quickly. Of course some would argue that artificial intelligence will create more wealth than it destroys – but there is genuine risk that this will not be distributed evenly, particularly during its early expansion.
Distribution of power
Artificial intelligence carries the risk, in the minds of some, of taking control away from humans – de-humanising actions in many ways. Nations that are in possession of artificial intelligence could theoretically kill humans without needing to pull a trigger.
Lack of judgement calls
Humans can take unique circumstances and judgement calls into account when they make their decisions, something that artificial intelligence may never be able to do. One example occurred in Sydney, Australia, in 2014 when a shooting drama in the downtown area prompted people to make numerous calls to Uber in an effort to escape the area. The result was that Uber’s ride rates surged based on its supply and demand algorithm – there was no consideration involved for the circumstances in which the riders found themselves.
So is artificial intelligence really a threat?
If you think that artificial intelligence is just a futuristic, Jetsons-style image that is unlikely to ever affect humans on a mass scale then look no further than the employees of Fukoko Mutual Life Insurance in Japan. In January 2017, 34 of its employees were dismissed from their jobs because the insurer had installed a new artificial intelligence system that could read medical certificates, gather data on hospital stays and surgeries, and, in the process, save the company an estimated 140 million Yen per year in salary costs.
Indeed a World Economic Forum study in 2016 predicted that around 5.1 million jobs will be lost to artificial intelligence over the next five years alone, across 15 countries. Yet, to counter-balance this argument, looking at the same industry – insurance – there are advantages to be gained too. In February 2017, Tractable launched a system it claims could “radically transform” motor claims by simplifying the tedious manual process and helping to fight insurance fraud by flagging suspicious claims – potentially removing stress and expense from the process, leading to cost savings for companies and policyholders alike.
Clearly, artificial intelligence has massive potential advantages. The key for humans, however, will be to use their own judgement to apply it productively and ensure the “rise of the robots” doesn’t get out of hand.
Is AI a threat to the human race as we know it?
PRO: Chris Bishop, director of Microsoft Research in Cambridge, said earlier this year that he believes the hyperbole around the AI risks could jeopardise any future developments that may in fact assist humanity.
“Any scenario in which AI is an existential threat to humanity is not just around the corner,” he told the Guardian.
Referring to the views of high-profile cynics like professor Stephen Hawking, Bishop said: “I think they must be talking decades away for those comments to make any sense. Right now we are in control of that technology and we can make lots of choices about the paths that we follow.”
Oren Etzioni, chief executive of the Allen Institute for AI and professor of computer science at the University of Washington, meanwhile says the popular dystopian vision of AI is wrong because it “equates intelligence with autonomy”.
“It assumes a smart computer will create its own goals, and have its own will, and will use its faster processing abilities and deep databases to beat humans at their own game,” he told Marginal Revolution last year. “It assumes that with intelligence comes free will, but I believe those two things are entirely different.”
Con: During a Reddit AMA session last year, Stephen Hawking said he believed AI could pose a risk to humanity, not because of “malice” but rather “competence”.
“A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals,” the physicist noted, “and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we’re in trouble.”
“You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. Let’s not place humanity in the position of those ants.”
Telsa and SpaceX founder Elon Musk joins Hawking in thinking that as a society we should be “very careful” about AI.
Dubbing the rise of the machine as the “biggest existential threat” to life as we know it, in 2014 Musk warned Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) students of the dangers of AI during a talk at the AeroAstro Centennial Symposium.
“I’m increasingly inclined to think that there should be some regulatory oversight, maybe at the national and international level, just to make sure we don’t do something very foolish,” he said.
Will the robot army rise up and steal our jobs?
Pro: Fortune magazine’s senior editor-at-large, Geoff Colvin, doesn’t think so. Writing in the New York Times in March after Google’s AlphaGo defeated Go champion Lee Se-dol, Colvin said that while scaled-up AI will change the nature of high-value human skills, we “aren’t doomed” quite yet.
“I don’t believe, as some do, that human defeats like this one presage an era of mass unemployment in which awesomely able computers leave most of us with nothing to do,” he noted. “Advancing technology will profoundly change the nature of high-value human skills and that is threatening, but we aren’t doomed.”
He argued that profoundly human traits and skills that require deep human interaction, such as empathy, will only become more valuable in the midst of the machine uprising.
Meanwhile, Matthew E Taylor, a computer scientist at Washington State University, doesn’t see robots taking over as a bad thing – as long as machines take on the right jobs. As far as he’s concerned, AI tech should target professions that are “dirty, dangerous or dull – jobs that we don’t want people to have”.
Con: According to Gary Marcus, professor of cognitive science at New York University (NYU), the appeal of workers that can compute tasks in seconds without the need to take a rest will undoubtedly stand to change the human workforce.
“There might be a few jobs left for entertainers, writers, and other creative types, but computers will eventually be able to program themselves, absorb vast quantities of new information, and reason in ways that we carbon-based units can only dimly imagine. And they will be able to do it every second of every day, without sleep or coffee breaks,” Marcus noted in the New Yorker in 2013.
LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman agrees, arguing that advancements in technology could pave the way for AI to weave its way into more ‘human’ professions.
“AI systems will increasingly perform functions that were once handled by lawyers, doctors, journalists and virtually every other kind of knowledge worker, along with factory workers, truck drivers and taxi drivers, retail personnel and more,” he wrote in Time last September.
Can AI help address some of the world’s most pressing problems, or will it worsen issues such as inequality and poverty?
Pro: Rollo Carpenter, creator of AI system Cleverbot, thinks AI will be used as a force for good. Speaking to the BBC in response to Hawking’s “end of the human race” warning, Carpenter was instead of the opinion that humans will remain in charge of the AI tech “for a decently long time”.
“The potential of it to solve many of the world’s problems will be realised,” he added.
Science authors Dr Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler agree. The duo explained in their book Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think, that AI could “save lives on a massive scale”.
“Machines of the future could help create an abundance of resources in parts of the world where they are in short supply, producing crops and operating on patients in third-world countries, among other endeavours.”
Con: “Driverless cars, robotic helpers and intelligent agents have the potential to usher in a new age of affluence and leisure – but the transition may be protracted and brutal, roiling job markets and increasing income inequality,” warned futurist and entrepreneur Jerry Kaplan ahead of a talk at this year’s SXSW.
Hawking agrees that AI will hinder rather than help the problem of “ever increasing inequality”.
He told Redditors that AI may enable everyone to enjoy a life of “luxurious leisure” but only if “the machine-produced wealth is shared”. The alternative, in his opinion? “Most people will end up miserably poor if the machine owners successfully lobby against wealth redistribution.”
“So far, the trend seems to be towards the second option, with technology driving ever increasing inequality,” he noted.