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ISW는 현재 평가된 가장 위험한 행동 방침(MDCOA), 즉 키예프를 겨냥한 우크라이나 북부의 새로운 침공과 일치하는 매일 관찰된 지표를 계속 보고할 것입니다.
2023년 겨울 우크라이나 북부에 대한 러시아의 공세 가능성에 대한 ISW의 12월 15일 MDCOA 경고 예측은 예측 범위 내에서 여전히 최악의 시나리오로 남아 있습니다. ISW는 현재 러시아가 벨로루시에서 우크라이나를 침공할 위험을 낮지만 가능한 것으로 평가하고 벨로루시인이 직접 개입할 위험은 매우 낮습니다. 일일 업데이트의 이 새로운 섹션은 그 자체로 예측이나 평가가 아닙니다. 정기적으로 업데이트할 것으로 예상되는 평가 및 예측을 개선하기 위해 사용하는 일일 관측 지표를 제시합니다. MDCOA가 유지될 가능성이 낮다는 우리의 평가는 변하지 않았습니다. 평가가 변경되면 이 헤더를 업데이트합니다.
지난 24시간 동안 MDCOA에 대해 관찰된 지표:
지난 24시간 동안 관찰된 MDCOA의 모호한 지표:
지난 24시간 동안 MDCOA에 대해 관찰된 반대 지표:
[1] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[2] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[3] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operation... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
[4] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
[5] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass... ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
[6] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[7] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[8] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[9] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[10] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass... ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
[11] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[12] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass... https:// tass . dot u/ekonomika/16683593; https://t.me/vv_volodin/588; https://t.me/readovkanews/49597
[13] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[14] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ;
[15] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1597465482592153601 ; https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-propagandists-make-desperate-pleas...
[16] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[17] https://www.army.mil/e2/downloads/rv7/info/references/ADP_3-0_ULO_Oct_20... ; https://www.ausa.org/articles/definition-%E2%80%98decisive%E2%80%99-depe...
[18] https://www.army.mil/e2/downloads/rv7/info/references/ADP_3-0_ULO_Oct_20... ; https://www.ausa.org/articles/definition-%E2%80%98decisive%E2%80%99-depe...
[19] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[20] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[21] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://twitter.com/raging545/status/1608217394690027520 ; https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1612441560284598276
[22] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
[23] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[24] https://abcnews.go.com/International/expect-strikes-deeper-deeper-russia... ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar120422 ; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAAmRSLIaVo&ab_channel=UkraineMediaCente... ; https://zn dot ua/ukr/UKRAINE/reznikov-rozpoviv-koli-prodovzhitsja-kontrnastup-sil-oboroni-.html; https://www.pravda.com dot ua/eng/news/2022/12/11/7380306/; https://fakty.com dot ua/ua/ukraine/20221206-ukrayini-sogodni-ne-potribna-dodatkova-mobilizacziya-reznikov/; https://nv dot ua/ukr/ukraine/politics/ukrajina-otrimaye-zahidni-tanki-ta-boyovi-litaki-zayaviv-reznikov-novini-ukrajini-50288954.html; https://armyinform.comdot ua/2022/12/04/mobilizovani-ta-vagnerivczi-ne-mayut-navychok-voyuvaty-vzymku-sergij-cherevatyj/; https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1594372791360491520 ; https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-will-be-over-by-spring-predicts-c... ;
[25] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[26] Zapad 훈련은 4년에 한 번 실시되며 원칙적으로 2025년까지는 다시 실시되지 않아야 합니다. 크렘린은 2021년 9월 Zapad 2021을 사용하여 2022년 2월 우크라이나 침공을 준비했습니다. 수업 과정. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...
[27] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
[28] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0xBAALczVonQJCWpMw38... https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0VBCGJZr7vD4Dht6mRhw...
[29] https://www.facebook.com/kpszsu/posts/pfbid02PoWQshJ55g2BegcNWK2E7F8UKra... ; https://suspilne dot media/359160-rosiani-pocilili-u-budinok-v-dnipri-sili-ppo-zbili-18-z-28-krilatih-raket-rf-326-den-vijni-onlajn/; https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/27100
[30] https://t.me/mod_russia/23394 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/75515; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/75514; https://t.me/brussinf/5547; https://t.me/readovkanews/50745 ; https://t.me/concordgroup_official/277; https://t.me/concordgroup_official/278; https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/2408
[31] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0xBAALczVonQJCWpMw38...
[32] https://t.me/sashakots/38078
[33] https://t.me/rybar/42709 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/75511 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/10334
[34] https://t.me/robert_magyar/342
[35] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0xBAALczVonQJCWpMw38... ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2023/01/15/na-bahmutskomu-napryamku-syly-oborony-zavdayut-znachnyh-vtrat-rosarmiyi-sergij-cherevatyj/; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/44447 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/10334 ; https://t.me/rybar/42709
[36] ttps://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1614339966057811970
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1614624560564895754
[37] https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid02zJnQCpTDHmyZwddtqAvVX...
[38] https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/306
[39] https://t.me/bazabazon/15385 ; https://t.me/ENews112/12597l; https://t.me/rybar/42710 ; https://t.me/opersvodki/12492; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/75510
[40] https://t.me/bazabazon/15386
[41] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0VBCGJZr7vD4Dht6mRhw...
[42] https://twitter.com/DanielBanas_sk/status/1614356367069822977
[43] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0xBAALczVonQJCWpMw38... https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0VBCGJZr7vD4Dht6mRhw...
태그
파일 첨부:
DraftUkraineCoTJanuary15,2023.png
하르키우 전투 지도 초안 2023년 1월 15일.png
도네츠크 전투 지도 초안 2023년 1월 15일.png
Kherson-Mykolaiv 전투 지도 초안 2023년 1월 15일.png
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