Triple whammy weighs heavily on Korean economy 한국 경제에 큰 부담이 되는 삼중고

[김우정]

우리경제가 고물가, 고환율, 고유가 등 삼고에 시달리고 있습니다.
9월 소비자물가지수(CPI)는 전년 동월 대비 3.7%를 기록해서 지난 4월 이후 가장 큰 폭으로 상승했습니다.
원-달러 환율은 지난 목요일 13원 하락한 달러당 1,350.5원에 마감했지만 가파르게 상승하고 있습니다.
추경호장관은 10월부터 인플레이션이 다시 안정될것으로 경기회복에 낙관적인 입장을 유지하고 있습니다.

 
Triple whammy weighs heavily on Korean economy
한국 경제에 큰 부담이 되는 삼중고

By Anna J. Park
Posted : 2023-10-05 16:57 Updated : 2023-10-05 18:19
Korea Times

Korea's Consumer Price Index

 
Consumer prices post biggest jump in 5 months
소비자물가 5개월 만에 최대폭 급등

The Korean economy is expected to undergo a highly uneven recovery as a toxic cocktail of rising inflation, high interest rates and a weakening Korean won are set to hamper growth in the second half of this year, according to analysts, Thursday.
목요일, 애널리스트들에 따르면 한국경제는 올 하반기에 물가상승, 고금리, 원화 약세라는 독극물이 성장을 저해할 것으로 예상됨에 따라 매우 고르지 못한 회복세를 보일 것으로 예상된다.

What is of grave concern is that such an unfavorable environment comes as both households and companies are saddled with mounting debts, which they expect will put a damper on financial markets and stymie economic growth over time.
심각한 우려가 되는 것은 가계와 기업 모두 증가하는 부채에 시달리면서 이런 불리한 환경이 도래한다는 점이며, 이는 금융시장에 찬물을 끼얹고 시간이 지나면 경제성장을 저해할 것으로 예상된다.

According to Statistics Korea, Thursday, the country's Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September stood at 3.7 percent, compared to the same month last year. It is the largest increase since April, when monthly inflation reached 3.7 percent.
목요일 통계청에 따르면 9월 소비자물가지수(CPI)는 전년 동월 대비 3.7%를 기록했다. 월간 물가상승률이 3.7%를 기록한 지난 4월 이후 가장 큰 폭이다.

The increase in the consumer price index has slowed down, since it peaked in July last year posting a 6.3 percent jump year-on-year. The monthly inflation rate logged the lowest increase of 2.3 percent in July this year, but it started to speed up again since August.
소비자물가지수 상승률은 지난해 7월 6.3%로 최고치를 기록한 이후 상승세가 둔화됐고, 월별 물가상승률은 올해 7월 2.3%로 최저치를 기록했지만 8월부터 다시 속도를 내기 시작했다.

Market watchers are wary over the threats from a combination of continuing high inflation, high foreign exchange rate and high interest rates. If the inflation rate does not be tamed during the remaining three months, it will end up surpassing the Bank of Korea (BOK)'s earlier price forecast of 3.5 percent set for this year.
시장에서는 고물가와 고환율, 고금리가 복합적으로 작용할 것으로 우려하고 있다. 앞으로 3개월 동안 물가상승률을 맞추지 않으면 당초 한국은행이 올해에 제시한 물가 전망치 3.5%를 넘어서게 된다.

"Korea's consumer price increase rate is expected to near four percent by the end of the year, considering remaining inflation-inducing factors, such as slated increases in public transportation fares and dairy product prices," Kim Ji-man, a senior analyst at Samsung Securities, pointed out.
"한국의 소비자 물가상승률은 대중 교통요금과 유제품 가격의 인상예정과 같은 남아있는 인플레이션 유발 요인을 고려할 때 연말까지 4%에 육박할 것으로 예상된다."라고 삼성증권의 김지만 선임 애널리스트는 지적했다.
 
 

Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho speaks during an emergency meeting of economy-related ministers at the government complex in Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap 추경호 기재부장관이 목요일 정부 서울청사에서 열린 긴급 경제관계장관회의에서 발언하고 있다. 연합

The increased interest rate gap between the U.S. and Korea is also unnerving the local market in the second half. The interest rate difference between the two countries has risen to 2 percentage points since July. As it's been some 15 months since the U.S.' interest rates have exceeded that of Korea, in addition to the U.S.' possible further increase in the near future, concerns over capital outflow, weakened bond and stock market are growing.
미국과 한국의 금리차가 커진 것도 하반기 국내 시장을 불안하게 하고 있다. 지난 7월 이후 두 나라의 금리차가 2%포인트까지 올라섰다. 미국의 금리가 한국을 넘어선 지 15개월 정도가 지났는데, 가까운 시일 내에 미국의 추가 인상 가능성까지 더해지면서 자본유출과 채권, 주식시장의 약세 우려가 커지고 있다.

Following signals by U.S. Federal Reserve officials that the key rates could be kept higher for longer, yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note had climbed to the highest level in 16 years during Chuseok holidays here though it stabilized on Thursday.
미 연방준비제도이사회(FRB) 관리들이 기준금리를 더 높게 유지할 수 있다는 신호를 보낸 후, 10년만기 미 국채의 수익률은 목요일 안정세를 보였지만 추석 연휴 동안 16년 만에 최고수준으로 상승했다.

"Due to prolonged U.S. monetary tightening, in the short-term, the local markets will become more sensitive to negative factors, such as rising loan interest rates linked to project financing (PF) and household debt, as well as the increased issuance of bank bonds. This could further aggravate market uncertainties, thus requiring active risk management in October,” Kim Ji-na, analyst at Eugene Investment, said.
김지나 유진투자 애널리스트는 "미국 통화긴축 장기화로 국내 시장은 단기적으로 프로젝트파이낸싱(PF), 가계부채 등과 연계한 대출금리 상승과 은행채 발행 증가 등 악재에 더욱 민감해질 것"이라며 "이는 시장 불확실성을 더욱 악화시킬 수 있어 10월 적극적인 리스크 관리가 필요하다"고 말했다.

Korea's chronic household debt burden is also dampening the economic outlook for the second half. According to IMF's database, Korea's household debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 108.1 percent in last year, marking the highest increase among 26 countries during the past five years. It is also the top second country in the world in terms of the household debt to national economy size, only following Switzerland with 130.6 percent.
한국의 만성적인 가계부채 부담도 하반기 경제 전망을 위축시키고 있습니다. IMF의 데이터베이스에 따르면 한국의 GDP 대비 가계부채 비율은 지난해 108.1%로 지난 5년간 26개국 중 가장 높은 증가율을 기록했다. 또한 국가 경제 규모 대비 가계부채는 130.6%로 스위스에 이어 세계 2위의 국가이다.

Meanwhile, global oil prices plunged on Wednesday, U.S. time, reversing their price move after hitting their highs so far this year last week. West Texas Intermediate crude futures expiring in November fell by 5.6 percent on Wednesday, posting the lowest settle since late August.
한편, 전 세계 석유 가격은 미국 시간으로 수요일에 급락했으며, 지난 주에 올해 최고치를 기록한 뒤 가격이 반전했다. 11월 만기 서부 텍사스 중질 석유 선물은 수요일에 5.6% 하락하여 8월 말 이후 최저치를 기록했다.
 

gettyimagesbank

Lingering external uncertainties
외부불확실성 지속

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Choo Kyung-ho stressed that the government will not let its guard down and will focus on policies to foster the economic recovery amid the increased external volatility and uncertainties stemming from prolonged high interest rates and economic slowdowns in major countries.
추경호 부총리 겸 기획재정부 장관은 주요국의 고금리 장기화와 경기 둔화에 따른 대외 변동성과 불확실성이 확대되는 가운데 정부가 방심하지 않고 경기 회복을 촉진하는 정책에 집중하겠다고 강조했다.

The won-dollar rate has risen steeply recently though it closed down 13 won at 1,350.5 won per dollar on Thursday. It is still a record high since Nov. 23 when the rate stood at 1,351.8 won per dollar.
원-달러 환율은 지난 목요일 13원 하락한 달러당 1,350.5원에 거래를 마쳤지만 최근 가파르게 상승하고 있다. 11월 23일 달러당 1,351.8원 이후 최고치이다.

The government also plans to come up with measures by the end of the month to preemptively alleviate the burden on the public due to rising prices, including measures to support heating costs during the winter and keep key food ingredient prices down, among others.
정부는 또 겨울철 난방비 지원 대책과 주요 식재료 가격인하 등 물가 상승에 따른 국민부담을 선제적으로 완화하기 위한 대책을 이달 말까지 마련할 계획이다.

"The government will strengthen monitoring with heightened vigilance, while actively responding to prevent instability in the foreign exchange market due to speculative transactions by offshore institutions. When necessary, the government will take bond market stabilization measures in a timely manner,” Choo said during an emergency meeting of economy-related ministries at the Seoul government complex on Thursday.
추 장관은 목요일 7일 정부 서울청사에서 긴급 경제관계장관회의를 열고 "정부는 경계를 강화하는 한편 역외기관의 투기적 거래에 따른 외환시장 불안이 발생하지 않도록 적극 대응하겠다"며 "필요한 경우 채권시장 안정화 조치를 적기에 취하겠다"고 밝혔다.

However, the finance minister remains upbeat on the economic recovery, saying that he expects inflation to stabilize again from October, when seasonal effects are to be mitigated.
그러나 기재부장관은 계절적인 영향이 완화될 10월부터 인플레이션이 다시 안정될 것으로 기대한다며 경기회복에 낙관적인 입장을 유지하고 있다.

"Price increases have been on a trend of overall slowdown this year. It is expected the inflation will stabilize again, given that service prices, which has been a key factor in the consumer price increase, continues to slow down," Choo said .
추 장관은 "올해 들어 물가 상승률이 전반적으로 둔화되는 추세"라며 "소비자물가 상승의 핵심 요인이었던 서비스 물가가 지속적으로 둔화되고 있는 점을 감안하면 물가 상승률이 다시 안정될 것으로 예상된다"고 말했다.

"The CPI's increase of over 3 percent for two consecutive months since August is attributed to a sharp rise in global oil prices and the soaring price of agricultural products in summer," he added.
그는 "CPI가 8월 이후 두 달 연속 3% 이상 오른 것은 글로벌 유가 급등과 여름철 농산물 가격 급등이 원인으로 분석된다"고 덧붙였다.

Despite the rising price trend, Choo highlighted the real economy is showing signs of a rebound particularly in production and exports.
추장관은 물가 상승 추세에도 불구하고 생산과 수출을 중심으로 실물경제가 반등조짐을 보이고 있다고 강조했다.

“In August, mining and industrial production increased by the largest margin in 38 months thanks to a significant improvement in semiconductor production, the main driving force of the Korean economy, and the manufacturing operation rate was also at the highest level in a year,” Choo said.
추 장관은 "8월 광공업 생산이 한국 경제의 주 동력인 반도체생산이 크게 개선된 데 힘입어 38개월만에 가장 큰 폭으로 증가했고, 제조업 가동률도 1년 만에 최고 수준을 기록했다"고 설명했다.

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