Is it foolish for Japan to compete with China? (PDO)

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Is it foolish for Japan to compete with China?

Since China and Japan established diplomatic relations, superficially the Japanese government has, in most cases, adopted a relatively low-key stance in handling problems and conflicts between the two countries. Behind this "painstaking low key", however, we found increasingly apparent "conflicts of interest" in recent disputes between the two countries, for example, China-Japan contention for the Russian oil pipeline project, India's replacement of China to become the biggest aid-recipient country of Japan, frequent engagement in disputes between China and Japan over territorial issues, Japan's increasing attention to the Taiwan Strait situation, etc. Under the circumstance of a lack of mutual political trust, we don't know whether these differences mean the intensification of competition between China and Japan or the appearance of a major adjustment in Japan's strategy toward China. However, we should continue thinking about ways to get along with Japan.

How future China-Japan relations would and should be? This is a key strategic question for both China and Japan. In the past the two countries had a relationship of invader and the invaded; in the future whether China and Japan can join hands in their common efforts for the prosperity and stability of East Asia and the political and economic integration of East Asia is still uncertain. Nevertheless, it can be said with certainty that the nature of future China-Japan relationship will determine the future of East Asia and even of the world as a whole.


Historical question can't be circumvented
Talking about the relationship between Japan and the ASEAN, a Japanese diplomat says "(Japan) is not competing with China and has no intention to do so." The impromptu remark sounds so close and yet so distant. It is close because the remark doesn't seem like a diplomatic term, instead, it is more like an emotional word uttered by a family member in bickering. It is distant because the remark seems to give one the feeling of coldness, or in other words, it expresses an air of arrogance and inapproachability. Of course this is, after all, a remark by a government official, which more or less reflects a certain mood contained in the Japanese government's relationship with China, which is to avoid forming a situation of competition with China and try as far as possible to avoid direct confrontation with China, not even crash in words. That is the reason why Japan in most cases handles relations with China by a low-key method. The author defines this phenomenon as a uniquely "close yet distant" relationship between China and Japan.

In relevance to other nations in the world, none of them is like Japan that has a long and close historical and cultural origin with China. China's culture has a far-reaching influence on Japanese culture and national character. Chinese today even go to Japan to look for the long disappeared customs typical of the Han (206 BC-220) and Tang (618-907) dynasties. However, is there any other nation like Japan that had so deeply hurt the Chinese people? As a matter of fact, the injury inflicted on the Chinese people by Japanese invasion of China was far greater than that by any other foreign invasion in Chinese history.

The "close yet distant" mentality still affects every aspect of China-Japan relations. Geographically, China and Japan are separated only by a narrow strip of water; psychologically, they are thousands of miles apart. The darkest shadow left to the Chinese people by Japan's invasion of China in history is none other than the sabers held in the hands of Japanese and the brutality shown in their use of these weapons. What the Chinese people are most reluctant to see is the repeat of history. Half a century has passed and the trauma is so deep that Chinese even today cannot but keep high vigilance against any move taken by Japan. The visits to Yasukuni Shrine, the missile defense issue, constitutional revision and the dispatch of troops overseas--all these make the Chinese people feel worried. In the final analysis, the Chinese people also feel uneasy about Japan's nostalgia and the attempt to "become strong" again. This mentality is perhaps not understood by young Japanese, but an answer can be found psychologically.

Some people say that China shouldn't always show its wound to others in order to win sympathy and call this "victim's psychology". This is, in fact, a shallow view. No country can separate its present from its past, unless one artificially avoid history for meeting present needs. Of course, it is diplomatically possible to deliberately avoid mentioning that phase of history between the two countries for the overall consideration of China-Japan relations. However, the reality is that when the Chinese people again feel that Japan is being militarized or becoming a military superpower, it is impossible not to mention history, this means "drawing lessons from history". Because this is not only a question of geopolitics. It is all the more a question of historical trauma. From this perspective, it is difficult for China and Japan to circumvent the historical question.

Now the "China military threat" saying is circulating around Japan, which is of course searching a basis for Japan's military development. The fact is that China's rise and rejuvenation is, in essence, to prevent the repeat of the tragedy in history. This is an enlightenment given by Chinese history. This also includes the history of Japan's invasion of China. If Japan could view things from another angle and link China's rise with Chinese history, it would come to an entirely opposite conclusion. One important reason for China's rise is - to prevent the threat of another Japanese invasion.

Another after-effect of the Japanese invasion is that there is always a consciousness of rejuvenation and competition in the innermost depth of the Chinese people's minds, which is directed only against Japan. In the past half century, the China inculcated consciousness of a strong nation is based on this. This is by no means the so-called revenge mentality. Chinese people won't copy the "burn all, kill all, loot all" policy of Japan. The character of the Chinese determines that they won't do so. The Chinese competitive awareness grows out of the consideration of self-improvement of the nation, aimed to prove that the Chinese people can likewise become strong and can also stand in the galaxy of nations in the world.

Some people say this is not a reasonable thinking worthy of a great nation and it is a narrow-minded nationalism. Obviously, people who said this are not rational themselves. As everyone knows any great nation begins its rise from national rejuvenation. At present, China is far from being a developed country. The reality is it has a large population, a heavy burden, a poor foundation to start with and inadequate natural resources. In the foreseeable future China won't be able to change the situation of relying on advanced countries for industrial and military technologies. The so-called "reasonable thinking worthy of a great nation" is based on the overall strength of a nation that is mighty enough to enable it to undertake corresponding international responsibilities. It is of no help by relying merely on one's farsightedness and manner of speaking.


Is it foolish for Japan to compete with China?
Japan does not want to form a situation of competition with China or be put in a position where it has to make a choice. This doesn't mean it can stand aloof. For example, on the question regarding accession into the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation In Southeast Asia, Japan's reaction is rather complicated: It does not want to give others an impression of its competition with China, neither does it want to distance itself too far from ASEAN, it also hopes that the ASEAN may contain China. This kind of psyche means: I don't want to take the lead neither do I want you to. Instinctively Japan doesn't hope China to dominate East Asian affairs while at the same time it doesn't show up to compete with China. Former Japanese Prime Minister Makasone Yasuhiro said "I'm absolutely not advocating that Japan should strive to compete with China. I think this idea is rather foolish. We should avoid doing so". Why? What is Japan waiting for? Is it waiting for a substantive change in China-US relations?

Some Japanese politicians and scholars believe that 2015 will be the year when qualitative change will take place in China-US relations. By then China's military strength would be on a par with that of the United States. There would be three possible situations in China-US relationship: confrontation, alliance or cold war. Japan believes that the first two possibilities are very unlikely. The most possible situation in Sino-US ties would be one of interdependence under a cold war state. Japan must now consider how to handle relationship with China under a Sino-US cold war state.

If considered in the framework of a Japan-US military alliance, Tokyo would follow Washington in containing China. But Japan must independently take responsibility for the consequences of the strategic situation possibly emerged in the West Pacific. One of them is that once the Korean Peninsula were united, the United States would possibly withdraw from Northeast Asia or reach a certain kind of compromise with China, by then would Japan still be able to rely on the United States? Would Japan be put in an isolated position? The second is how the relationship between China's mainland and Taiwan would evolve; what kind of order across the Taiwan Straits would be in the interests of Japan. In case a change disadvantageous to Japan occurred in the Taiwan Straits, what would Japan choose to do. At the end of last year, a report by US National Intelligence Council, which predicts the international situation in 2020, said by 2020 Northeast Asian countries would, centered around the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan Straits, reinforce their armament to different extents, which would possibly lead to Japan and a united Korea "gaining nuclear capability". The "nuclear umbrella" of the United States would probably no longer serve Japan. Japan would have to choose between taking regional dominance and keeping closeness with the United States.

Japan believes that now it is still not the best time to make a choice, nor is there availability of adequate conditions for engaging in competition with China. The prospect for unification of North and South Korea and the Taiwan Straits situation are still unclear, and under the circumstance wherein Japan "as party involved lacks influence", it would be foolish for Tokyo to come forward and have a trial of strength with China. Besides, although ASEAN has explicitly said that it hopes Japan to play a leading role in the field of Asia-Pacific security, Japan is well aware that the real intent of ASEAN is to see great nations balancing and checking each other, rather than hoping the two great nations to antagonize each other in their contention for the dominant position. The ASEAN still has misgivings about China and holds a positive attitude toward Japan for its help in the economic rejuvenation of the ASEAN in the 1980s.

Regarding this, Japan is inclined toward recognizing and maintaining US dominant position in the Asia-Pacific region. Based on this it can gradually establish its own defense system under the dominance of the United States. While relying on the United States, Japan at the same time strives for more autonomous space. This autonomous space involves specifically the "autonomy" in the missile defense system as well as the question of Japan's performing provisions under the Japan-US military alliance if the United States were involved in a crisis across the Taiwan Straits. Some Japanese even believe that the two questions alone can make Japan and the United States part company. In view of this, Japan must from now on consider the possibility of independently assuming the task of defending the security of Japan in order to prevent Tokyo from falling into a security crisis once the Japan-US alliance breaks down.


How will China and Japan get along in the future?
If China and Japan can approach "history" from another perspective, that will greatly benefit peaceful co-existence and eternal cessation of war between the two countries, that is, China no longer views Japan's military growth as a repeat of history and Japan no more regards the rise of China as a threat. However, there is always a gap between reality and wishes. Judged from the current Sino-Japan relationship, this gap is still rather big.

Japan believes from a geopolitical point of view China has already constituted a threat to Japan. In the north, China has established a "Shanghai Cooperation Organization" with Russia and other Central Asian countries; in the south, China has strengthened relationship with ASEAN members through free trade agreements and friendly cooperation treaties. Years of continued high-speed economic growth threatens Japan's position as an economic power and consequently weakens Japan's influence in Southeast Asia. Especially at the time when Japanese economic circles and public opinion view the Chinese market as Japan's hope for economic recovery, their worry about China is growing even stronger. And China is constantly vigilant against Japan's move toward militarization. Particularly China has misgivings over Japan's increasing right-deviation tendency politically, and over the motivation of Japan, which, on the one hand, tries to conceal its invasion history and, on the other hand, actively seeks to become a military power. Therefore, while resolutely opposing Japan's establishing a missile defense system and revising it peace constitution, China handles its relationship with Japan with a strong competitive awareness, although China realizes that Japan is an important factor for China's rise and Japan's cooperation and help are indispensable.

If Japan and China eventually headed for confrontation, it would completely change the strategic situation in East Asia as a whole and make this situation move in a direction unfavorable to China. If the China-Japan relationship merely stayed at an economic level and failed to make breakthroughs at the political level, the China-Japan economic cooperation would probably move toward "bubble economic cooperation". As a matter of fact, such a movement has already made its appearance. Japan has begun to look for another market in place of China. The possibility that Japan's technology and investment would shift to India and Russia may become inevitable.

Faced with this reality, Japan has to admit that the result of choosing between "not wanting to compete with China" and "not wanting to reduce influence in East Asia" is the inevitable competition between China and Japan. The present problem is how to regulate the competition between China and Japan. Japanese scholars suggested that since China and Japan have different opinions and competition in the understanding of history and dominance in Asia, the China-Japan relations should gradually move into the track of "competitive coordination". At the end of last year, the Japan-ASEAN Summit Conference issued the Tokyo Declaration, formally putting forward the idea of an "East Asian Community". This was in fact considering the inclusion of future China-Japan relationship into the category of integration. Is putting the bilateral relationship between China and Japan in the multilateral environment really helpful to forming a "competitive coordination" relationship? In the opinion of the writer, this depends first on the nature of competition between China and Japan and then on how the interest relations behind the competition are coordinated. It is still too early to foretell the nature of China-Japan relationship in the East Asia Community. However, one thing is certain that China-Japan cooperation is more in conformity with the long-term interests of the two nations than China-Japan competition.

By People's Daily Online

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