As Americans head to the polls on Tuesday (Nov 8), TODAY looks at what’s at stake and what to expect in the coming days.
How the voting system works: The vote, by universal suffrage, is conducted in a single round in all 50 states and the District of Columbia (the city of Washington, which is not part of any state). Voters choose among the candidates for president and vice-president. The popular vote in each state determines the selection of a set of members of the electoral college, who pledge to support a given candidate.
What does it take to win? The successful candidate must amass 270 electoral college votes. In all but two states, the candidate who carries the majority of the popular vote wins the support of all the state’s electors. Nebraska and Maine use a split system, in which two electors are chosen by popular state-wide vote and the remainder are chosen according to the popular vote in each congressional district. The winner-takes-all system in the states makes it extremely hard for a third-party candidate to prevail, although they can still have a critical impact on certain states and therefore on the national result.
What is early voting? Thirty-seven US states have laws allowing people to cast absentee ballots either at authorised locations or by mail, before Election Day today. North Carolina was the first state to start voting when it began mailing out absentee ballots on Sept 15. Minnesota kicked off early in-person voting on Sept 23.
How many early votes have been cast so far? More than 40 million people — or about a quarter of the expected electorate — had lodged early votes by Saturday. In some states, as many as 70 per cent of the votes are expected to be in before today.
Is there any other election that will take place? Americans will also vote for every one of the 435 members of the House of Representatives (who serve two-year terms) and for 34 of the 100 senators (who serve for six years). Additionally, they will be choosing governors in 12 states. Governors have executive authority at the state level and are the most powerful political figures in their state, although senators, who regularly travel between Washington and their home state, also have significant clout.
Besides thousands of posts that will also be contested at the local level, including for state legislative assemblies, judges, municipal councils, mayors and sheriffs, Americans will also vote on more than 150 different propositions displayed on the ballot across 35 states. According to Ballotpedia, an encyclopedia of US politics, the propositions cover a wide range of issues, from legalising marijuana to the minimum wage, health, gun control and, in the case of California, requiring porn stars to wear condoms on set.
What are the main factors to watch for in this election? With polls showing voters having negative opinions of both major presidential candidates, one of the key factors on election day could be the enthusiasm of their bases. If black, female, Latino and young voters do not turn out in significant numbers it could represent a blow to Mrs Clinton’s camp. Likewise, if white working-class voters do not go to the polls in significant numbers it would hurt Mr Trump.
What happens after polling? The first polls close in Indiana, home to Mr Trump’s running mate Mike Pence, the state’s Governor, as well as Kentucky. Both states are heavily Republican and are likely to be carried by Mr Trump. The last polling stations to close will be Alaska and Hawaii. At midnight (Wednesday, 8am, Singapore time), polls close in the battleground states of Florida, Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina and Vermont.
The first surprises could come from Georgia, if Mr Trump loses that normally Republican-leaning state, and if Virginia, won by US President Barack Obama in 2012, eludes Mrs Clinton. Surprises could also come from the battleground states of Ohio and North Carolina, which have 18 and 15 electoral votes, respectively. Ohio, a fallen industrial powerhouse, is historically Democratic territory, while North Carolina tends to vote Republican. But either could swing the other way this year. Mr Trump has done a lot of campaigning in Ohio, hoping to capitalise on the appeal of his protectionist trade policies in the Rust Belt state.
All eyes will be on swing state Florida — an ethnically and politically mixed snapshot of America that accounts for a whopping 29 electoral votes. Mr Obama won it narrowly in 2012. Back in 2000, in the historic disputed election that kept the nation on the edge of its seat for days, former president George W Bush defeated Mr Al Gore there.
Much attention will also be paid to the small north-eastern state of New Hampshire, which normally votes for Democrats but is seen as possibly up for grabs this time, and Pennsylvania, another former industrial powerhouse that normally leans Democratic and holds 20 electoral votes. If Mrs Clinton does not take Pennsylvania it will be a major blow, especially because she chose to spend the last night of her campaign in Philadelphia alongside her husband and the Obamas. In 2012 it took almost two hours for Mr Obama to be named the winner in the state.
How will the results be announced? US television stations announce winners in each state one by one through partial vote tallies, exit polls and their own projections. But the race could stretch well into the night (Wednesday morning Singapore time) if the final polls are correct and some of the states, especially Florida, are in near-dead heats. AGENCIES