에스토니아 국방장관, 스웨덴-핀란드의 가입으로 발틱해가 나토해가 되었다

[위종민]

https://news.usni.org/2022/06/30/estonian-defense-minister-baltic-can-become-internal-nato-sea-with-sweden-finland-in-alliance

https://papago.naver.net/website?locale=ko&source=en&target=ko&url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.usni.org%2F2022%2F06%2F30%2Festonian-defense-minister-baltic-can-become-internal-nato-sea-with-sweden-finland-in-alliance (파파고 번역) 

Estonian Defense Minister: Baltic Can Become 'Internal NATO Sea' With Sweden, Finland in Alliance - USNI News

발틱해 지도

스웨덴과 핀란드의 나토 가입으로 발틱해가 나토해가 되었고, 이는 에스토니아에 매우 좋은 뉴스라고 에스토니아 국방장관이 발언했습니다. 

지난 나토 정상회담에서는 양국의 나토가입 합의 외에, 신속대응군 병력을 30만 명에서 40만 명으로 증가시키고(이 기사에서만 보이는 걸로 봐선 4만명을 30만명으로 늘린다는 내용을 오기한 듯 싶습니다.) 발트3국에 여단급의 부대를 순환배치시키는 한편 폴란드에 미군 사령부를 설치하기로 합의되었습니다. 

스페인 로타 해군기지의 위치 

그 외 스페인 로타 해군기지에 구축함 두 척을 배치하고 영국에 F-35 2개 비행대대 증편안도 통과됐습니다. 

스웨덴의 안 린데 외교부장관에 의하면 작년 12월 유럽 안보회의에서 러시아가 나토 확장에 대해 간섭하고, 자국의 영역권(sphere of influence)을 주장한 뒤로 200년 간의 중립이 러시아의 침략으로부터 자국을 보호해주지 않는다고 믿게 됐으며 스웨덴과 다른 유럽 국가, 심지어 우크라이나 대통령까지 실제로 일어날 거라곤 믿지 않았던 2월 24일의 침공 이후로 "우리가 더 이상 안전하지 않다."고 결론내렸다고 합니다. 의원들의 85%, 국민들의 60%가 나토 가입을 지지했다고 하네요. 

발틱해가 나토 내해가 돼 버리면서 칼리닌그라드에 배치된 발틱함대는 개전 초 기습 외에 사실상 가능한 임무가 없을 듯 합니다. 핵무기 의존도가 더 심해질 것 같네요. 현재 발틱함대의 Order of Battles는 위키에 따르면 다음과 같습니다.

( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Fleet#Order_of_Battle ) 스웨덴 국방연구소에서 발행한 2020년 기준 발틱함대에 대한 보고서도 있네요. ( https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI-R--5119--SE ) 

서부전구 예하 레닌그라드, 발틱(칼리닌그라드)해군기지와 11군단이 배치. 

수상함은 총 52척이나 구축함급 대형함정은 1척에 불과합니다. (소브레메니급 1척)

- 해군항공부대 및 방공부대 배치도

발틱함대 소속 해군항공부대 배치표. Su-24와 Su-27/30 시리즈가 주력. 그 외 44 방공사단 예하에 S-400과 S-300을 장비한 방공연대들이 배치. 

11군단 및 해안경계부대 배치표. 

11군단 예하 기계화부대 장비표

Estonian Defense Minister: Baltic Can Become 'Internal NATO Sea' With Sweden, Finland in Alliance - USNI News

View all posts by John Grady →

6-7 minutes

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U.S. Marines with Battalion Landing Team 2/6, 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit, prepare to board a landing craft, air cushion in light armored vehicles during BALTOPS 22 in Ventspils, Latvia, June 12, 2022. U.S. Marine Corps Photo

When Turkey dropped its opposition to Sweden and Finland joining the transatlantic alliance this week, it opened up the path to turn the “Baltic [into an] internal NATO sea,” Estonia’s top defense official said Wednesday.

Kalle Laanet, Estonia’s minister of defense, said the agreement “was very good news for us.” At a think-tank sponsored forum on NATO’s future, he also welcomed NATO’s plan to increase the size of its rapid reaction force to 300,000 from 400,000, introduce at least brigade-sized forces for rotational tours into the three Baltic states and establish an American corps headquarters in Poland. 

Other increases from the United States include basing two more destroyers in Rota, Spain, and stationing two squadrons of F-35 Lightning II Strike Fighters in the United Kingdom.

“Allies have committed to deploy additional robust in-place combat-ready forces on our eastern flank, to be scaled up from the existing battlegroups to brigade-size units where and when required, underpinned by credible rapidly available reinforcements, prepositioned equipment and enhanced command and control,” NATO leaders agreed in their summit declaration in Madrid this week.

The changes mean “we can defend immediately,” Laanet said. “We are making quick decisions to make our defenses stronger” by building up ammunition stocks and modernizing equipment and systems.

“Putin accepts only power; we have to give power to Ukraine” to end Kremlin aggression, he said.

For months before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Baltic leaders were in Washington and Brussels arguing that their region needed more than “trip-wire” defenses to deter Russian military attack.

Expanding NATO was also a challenge the alliance had to overcome before the Madrid summit; and it had to be a unanimous decision to grow NATO. That is “how we agree to solve problems,” Adm. Rob Bauer of the Royal Netherlands Navy and the chair of NATO’s military committee said at the forum.

It was not an easy path forward for Sweden and Finland after both Nordic nations saw how much Moscow’s attitude toward its neighbors had changed late last year.

Starting with the Kremlin’s bullying over any expansion of NATO and demanding a sphere of influence at a European security meeting in December, Foreign Minister Ann Linde said Swedish governmental officials no longer believed its 200 years of neutrality would protect them against Russian aggression.

“That rang alarm bells” in Stockholm, she told attendees at the forum. Still, many Swedes and other Europeans, including Ukrainian leaders, still didn’t believe that Moscow would launch an all-out military attack on a neighboring country until it did on Feb. 24 in Ukraine.

“We came to the conclusion that we weren’t safe anymore,” Linde said.

She added that 85 percent of the parliament agreed with the change from neutrality and partnership with NATO to full membership. Sixty percent of the population supported the application.

Linde said there was a similar shift of opinion in Finland at the same time.

But Turkey objected to the two Nordic countries’ admission, saying they harbored Kurdish terrorists and had imposed controls on arms sales to Ankara in retaliation for its treatment of the Kurds.

“We had to take [Turkish objections] very seriously” in what turned out to be a four-and-a-half hour meeting of two presidents, one prime minister, three foreign ministers and other high officials before reaching a memorandum of understanding,” she said.

The three countries came to the meeting with the intention to solve the problem, she said.

“The atmosphere was respectful of each other,” she said.

Pekka Haavisto, her Finnish counterpart, said, “we had quite a sweaty two hours” before there was a break. After the parties returned, the agreement was reached, and Turkey withdrew its objection. Going in, he said it was “very important we [the Nordic nations] do this together” in applying for admission and resolving Turkish objections.

“The most important issue is unity,” Bauer said.

When asked whether former Warsaw Pact nations that had been sending Soviet-era weapons to Ukraine were weakening their own defenses, Bauer said this really allows a switchover to more modern Western systems in the next 10 years.

The catch is that “production is slower than we want” as demand increases, he said. “This is an important topic that needs to be addressed” in coming months.

Speaking on the eve of Sweden’s and Finland’s admission to the 30-member transatlantic alliance, Linde said Russians have been committing “war crimes from the beginning” that captured Western attention. She cited the attack on a red-roofed theater in Mariupol that was sheltering a thousand civilians and was deliberately destroyed in the long siege of that port city. About 600 civilians were believed to have been killed in the attack.

She and others said that public support for Kyiv may be waning in the wake of higher prices for goods and energy and a shift in priorities back to everyday concerns.

Kajsa Ollogren, the Netherlands’ minister of defense, said sanctions “cost us something” to impose. But it was “important to have this debate with our public” over why they are important in defense of Ukraine.

“You can already see in the media” declining interest in coverage of Ukraine, Linde said. “We have seen this so many times, it just slides away.”

[백선호]

전쟁이 나면 칼리닌그라드로 가는 통로를 뚫으려는 러시아군을 막는 시나리오로 벌어질 듯 합니다.

https://cafe.daum.net/NTDS/5q3/510

[위종민]

발트3국도 러시아가 sphere of influence로 넣고 싶은 공간이었을 텐데, 이젠 그럴 가능성은 극적인 파워 밸런스의 변화가 생길 때까지 물건너가버린 것 같습니다.

[Minowski(김유철)]

칼리닌그라드는 이제 그냥 핵지뢰밭이라고 여겨야 할 상황이 될 것 같습니다. 사태가 계속 에스컬레이트 되면 발트해도 나토의 내해가 아닌 아무도 못 쓰는 기뢰밭이 될 수도 있을것 같고..

[위종민]

핀란드까지 넘어가버려서 페테르스부르크 방어 쪽으로 임무 무게추가 기울어질 것 같습니다. 칼리닌그라드에 배치된 부대는 말씀대로 해상거부/A2AD에 집중하고 지상군은 고수방어 & 가능하면 나토 지상군을 유인하는 모루 역할을 하지 않을까요.