네이티브 케피탈리즘의 Nick Corbishley 의 글입니다.
극우 정치인에 대한 냉소는 같습니다...그런데 촛점은 상당히 다릅니다.
오히려 이런 글이 더 좋은 글이 아닌가 싶어....옮겻습니다.
The Far-Reaching Implications of Javier “the Wig” Milei’s Election Victory in Argentina
Clearly, a majority of voters have had enough of the status quo. What they want is a seismic shift in the underlying political and economic dynamics. And that is what they will get, for better or worse (my money is on the latter).
Sunday’s electoral victory of Javier Milei, an avowed libertarian with big sideburns, a fiery temper and far-right sympathies who claims to be on a mission to rid Argentina of its corrupt political caste (sound familiar?), was not much of a surprise. He had lead the polls leading up to the vote, had been endorsed by the country’s main right-wing party, and his opponent, Sergio Massa, is currently the economy minister in a country that is on the verge of hyperinflation (CPI: 148%) and where four in ten people live in poverty.---
이번 선거를 좌익와 우익 과의 대결이 아닌 ..우익과 극우의 대결로 본 것입니다.
16년 동안의 강제 고립에서 해금된 김대중이 첫 대중 연설에서 말 햇지요.
-앞으로 전개 되는 민주화 시대에서는 보수와 진보가 대결 하게 될 것이다.
김대중의 그 말 이후 지금까지 ...하 세월이 지낫지만...과연 보수와 진보가 대결한 선거가 한번이라도 잇엇던가??
노무현이 진보 입니까??....야는 보수 중에서도 아주 수구 꼴통...미친개 + 갱상도 라고 햇지요??
노무현 시대 만큼 민중들의 삶이 개판이 되 버린 시대는 없엇습니다..
가장 많은 빈부격차를 벌리고
가장 많은 부동산투기질이 일어낫고
가장 많은 비 정규직을 만들어 냇습니다.
박그뇌시절의 통계도 노무현 보다는 더 좋게 나옵니다.
진보의 거죽, 보수의 거죽을 쓴 꼭 같은 수구 꼴통들 끼리 ...서로 서로 욕하여 자신들의 펜텀을 만들고 사육해 나가는
정치가 민주주의라는 이름으로, 진보라는 개 소리로, 사람사는 세상이라는 사기질로 계속되어 왓던 것이지요.
진짜 문제는 ...
이런것이 앞으로라도 개선 될 수 잇는 것일까??
그럴일은 결코 일어나지 않을 것이다는 것이 .....골이 아프다는 것이지요.
민주주의라는 마약은 ..결코 끊을 수 없습니다.
약간 줄여서...손 달달달달 떨리지 않을 만큼만 처 먹다 되지게 될 것입니다...그런것을 개혁이라고 싸불 거리겟지요.
What was surprising is how emphatic the victory was. Milei, a political nobody just a few years ago, won 56% of the votes, compared to Massa’s 44% — one of the highest electoral margins of the country’s 40-year democratic era. Massa managed to win in only three of Argentina’s 23 provinces and federal district.
Clearly, a majority of voters have had enough of the status quo. According to a close friend living in Buenos Aries province, the word one keeps hearing is “change” (also sound familiar?)--버락 오바마의 선거구호도 변화와 희망이엇지요--, which is perhaps understandable given the dire state of the economy, the high levels of child poverty (67%) and the woeful performance of Alberto Fernández’s outgoing government. What people want is a seismic shift in the underlying political and economic dynamics. And that is what they will get, for better or worse (my money is on the latter). And the reverberations will reach far beyond Argentina’s borders.
The End of Argentina’s BRICS Membership (Before It Even Began)
On the campaign trail, Javier Milei said that as president he would cancel Argentina’s entry to the BRICS and align the country with the US and Israel(이런 기조는 찌지리 성려리 와 꼭 같습니다...미국의 좆말 빨겟다) — a move that will certainly be welcomed by Israel’s Netanyahu government, especially given that Buenos Aires is home to the largest Jewish population in Latin America(아르핸티나는 독일 나찌주의자들의 최대 피난처 이기도 합니다), and one of the seven largest in the world. Until now, Latin American governments have lead the way in standing up to Israel during its “gazacide“, as Kurt Hackbarth recently reported for Jacobin. Bolivia has severed diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv while Colombia, Chile and Honduras have all recalled their ambassadors.
By contrast, Milei has stated that his first two trips before taking office on December 10 will be to the United States and Israel — the latter apparently for “spiritual reasons” (presumably a reference to Milei’s desire to convert to Judaism after his presidency is over).
Relations with China, meanwhile, are likely to be a lot more strained going forward. Milei has referred to the Asian nation as an “assassin,” telling a Bloomberg News in August:
“People are not free in China, they can’t do what they want and when they do it, they get killed. Would you trade with an assassin?”
Milei has since clarified that he wouldn’t stand in the way of private business deals between Argentine and Chinese companies. Diana Mondino, Milei’s pick for foreign minister, has also played down Milei’s statements, saying he never proposed formally breaking with China, which is probably a good thing given that China is Argentina’s second largest trading partner, providing much-needed foreign currency.
Now, China’s “comprehensive strategic partner[ship]” with Argentina (in the words of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Wang Wenbin) is probably over (or at least on hold). And that could be a problem given that China is heavily invested in many of Argentina’s strategic sectors, including lithium and gas — sectors that the US government and corporations also have their eyes on. Beijing is also a major creditor since signing a currency swap in 2009 with then-President Cristina Fernández de Kirchener, as Bloomberg recently reported:
Since then, China has invested billions in the country, in everything from lithium and solar power plants in the north, to a space station in the southern Patagonia region.
The ties have become even stronger in recent years, with Argentina joining Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road initiative in 2022. It announced plans to join the BRICS group of emerging markets, of which China is the largest, next year.
China’s investments in Argentina only reflect a fraction of its overall influence in Latin America, where it’s chipped away at the US’s dominance in recent decades. Through Belt and Road, China has poured billions into the construction of roads, bridges, trains, power grids and energy plants across the region. It’s also turned its attention toward governors instead of just national leaders, building relationships that have allowed it to invest in even the most remote areas, as it’s charged ahead to become South America’s No. 1 trading partner.
Special currency swap arrangements signed between Buenos Aires and Beijing in June and July this year have enabled the Argentine government to continue servicing its $44 billion loan package from the IMF, thus avoiding yet another default. That credit line could be at risk if Milei maintains his hard line toward Beijing. It is not hard to imagine, for example, his government blocking key Chinese investments in strategic sectors, including Vaca Muerta, an oil and shale gas reservoir in Patagonia that holds the world’s second-largest shale gas reserves and the fourth-largest shale oil deposits.
Milei has also said that his government would endorse and apply the Collective West’s sanctions against Russia, adding: “I would never support an autocratic government like Russia’s.”
In other words, on the off chance that Milei doesn’t cancel Argentina’s BRICS membership, its is unlikely that the BRICS’ founding members will continue to endorse the membership of a country whose government supports US and/or EU sanctions against a fellow member. In such an event, it will be interesting to see whether or not the founding members opt to invite another Latin American country to replace Argentina, with the two most obvious candidates being Bolivia and Venezuela.
South American Trade bloc, Mercosur, Also on the Line
Milei has also launched scathing verbal attacks on the four-nation trade bloc Mercosur, comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, even going so far as to threaten to withdraw from the grouping, which will probably be harder than exiting the BRICS given the role it has played in promoting regional economic integration. If it were to happen, though, the result would almost certainly be the disintegration of Mercosur, which in turn will spell the end of multi-decade trade negotiations between the trade bloc and the EU.
The hopes in Brasilia and Brussels are that pragmatism will prevail and that Milei will temper his policies toward Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva once he is in office. Brazil is Argentina’s biggest trade partner but relations between the two countries already soured during Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency. They could be about to get even worse. On the campaign trail, Milei described Lula as an “angry communist” and has formally invited Bolsonaro as Brazil’s “representative” at his inauguration.
In an interview with Reuters, Mondino tried to undo some of the damage, saying that while Mercosur must be modified, it should not be “eliminated” as Milei had previously suggested. Mondino also said Argentina will seek to increase trade with Brazil. But before that she will have to find a way of mending relations between the two governments, and that’s before the Milei government has even been formed.
For the moment, Lula is happy to leave Argentina’s relations with Brazil on hold, confident in the belief that Argentina’s crisis-hit, dollar-deprived economy needs Brazil as much, if not more, than Brazil needs Argentina. It is a fair bet: the volume of Argentina’s trade with Brazil is more than twice as large as its trade with the US. Meanwhile, Mercosur and the EU are speeding up bilateral talks on a long-awaited trade deal in the hope of signing along the dotted lone before Milei comes to power.
Death of the Central Bank and Dollarisation(한인들은 아마도 이런것에 가장 관심이 많을듯 합니다)
On Monday, the day after his election, Milei reiterated his plans to eliminate the Central Bank (BCRA), which he described as a “moral issue” as well as establish a financial strategy to resolve Argentina’s growing pile of short-term “Leliq” bonds, which broke through the 1 trillion peso (around 18.2 billion) threshold in March. As Reuters reported at the time, “the Leliq debt, denominated in pesos and auctioned daily to mostly domestic banks, helps the central bank mop up funds in the market to bolster a weak currency and bring down stubborn inflation. But with sky-high interest rates it is also raising concerns that it could become unsustainable.”
Milei’s is also talking about abolishing the peso and replacing it with the US dollar instead. A milder form of this policy was already tried in the early 1990s, when the Menem government in Buenos Aires fixed the exchange rate at a wholly artificial and unsustainable value of one U.S. dollar. This gave the country a false illusion of prosperity while making the economy uncompetitive and depriving the state of having an independent monetary policy. It ultimately paved the way to the financial crisis, and currency devaluation and deep recession of 2001, from which Argentina’s economy has never properly recovered.
What’s more, Argentina, on its own, is not in a position to undertake dollarization since for two simple reasons. As Alejandro Werner, former director of the Western Hemisphere Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), told America Quarterly, “Argentina does not have the dollars to dollarize, and it does not have access to the financial market to obtain dollars.”
That is, for once, a blessing. After all, if Argentina were to fully replace the peso with the dollar, it would mean the end of any semblance of Argentinean sovereignty, as the South Korean economist Ha-Joon Chang(장하준) warned during a recent visit to the country:
If you want to adopt dollars as your official currency you should apply to become a colony of the United States of America because that’s what it makes you. This means your macroeconomic policies will be written in Washington DC.
That would, of course, suit the US government just fine. After all, Argentina has huge deposits of mineral resources that it already has its sights set on, including lithium and natural gas. And if a G20 economy like Argentina were to adopt the dollar, it may go some way to counteracting the BRICS’ efforts to reduce the dollar’s influence in global trade. Building stronger economic ties with Argentina will also help to erode China’s growing influence in South America.
But will Washington be prepared to pour significant funds into such a venture; according to estimates from the Spanish financial daily Expansión, the initial outlay alone could cost as much as $100 billion, for a project that is likely to take years to complete, and what’s more with a government that still owes the IMF $44 billion as well as billions to China. And right now, that is a lot of money to the Biden Administration, especially with Congress blanching at providing more funds for the Zelensky government in Ukraine.
--결론 부터 말하면,,,그 의도나 기대 결과와 관계없이 불 가능..
Another Era of Privatisation and Plunder
Seventeen months ago, another political earthquake took place in South America. The former Marxist guerrilla fighter Gustavo Petro made history by becoming Colombia’s first left-wing president since the country won independence in 1819. As I noted at the time, the election outcome, much like this one, could have important repercussions far beyond Colombia’s borders, particularly in terms of its relations with its long-estranged neighbour, Venezuela, as well as its military ties with the US, which has at least seven official military bases on Colombian soil.
Petro’s election has also had repercussions for Colombia’s relations with Israel, a close military ally that had trained and equipped many of Colombia’s soldiers and paramilitaries. The Petro government recently recalled its ambassador to Israel for consultations and its legal teams are preparing lawsuits to file before all international courts against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Petro is also threatening to halt all arms purchases from countries that voted against or abstained in the UN vote for a ceasefire in Gaza. That could, of course, include the United States, Colombia’s largest strategic ally in matters of defence.
Interestingly, the day that Petro won the election, Colombia’s stock exchange fell 6% — in response, no doubt, to his government’s proposed plans to reform the tax system, by introducing a more progressive system of income and wealth taxation, tackle agrarian reform and provide broader public access to healthcare. By contrast, Argentina’s MERVAL stock market finished the day up over 7%. It’s not hard to see why: what Milei is offering is another mass sell-off of state-owned assets to foreign multinationals.
The high risers included Argentina’s majority state-owned Argentine energy company YPF, which will be among the first of the state’s public assets to be privatised. The company was already privatised during the Carlos Menem presidency 1989-99 and then renationalised in 2010 by the Cristina Fernández de Kirchener government in 2012. Today, the idea of selling off the company, presumably to a US or European corporation, makes zero sense given that YPF is sitting on 40% of one of the world’s biggest oil and gas fields, the 8.6-million-acre Vaca Muerta (Dead Cow). 아르헨티나 북부 파타고니아의 Neuquén 분지에 위치한 쥐라기 후기에서 백악기 초기의 지질 학적 지층. 셰일 오일과 셰일 가스의 주요 매장량에 대한 호스트 암석으로 잘 알려져 있음
The new government will also be selling off Argentina’s public television and radio broadcasters and the state-owned news agency Telam. In the size of the government’s public debt (almost $400 billion, equivalent to roughly two-thirds of GDP) as well as the challenges it will inevitably face trying to service its IMF loan and Chinese credit line at a time of negative central bank reserves, Milei has the perfect alibi for taking his metaphorical chainsaw to all state assets of any value, just as was always the plan.
“Everything that can be in private sector hands will be,” he said.
Whether that includes health and education remains to be seen. These are the only two areas of public services that survived relatively in tact the neoliberal dismantling of the 1990s by Carlos Menem, whom Milei has labelled as the best president in Argentina’s democratic history, and the crisis of 2001. Public education – at all levels – and health, the last two remaining jewels in Argentina’s crown, are unique in all of America and in much of the world, notes the independent journalist Emiliano Gullo:
In Argentina, five Nobel Prize winners were formed (two in physics, one in Medicine and two in Peace). One of them, Bernardo Houssay, created Conicet, the most qualified public research institute in South America that Milei has promised to close. Mexico has only one Nobel Prize in hard sciences. Brazil, none. The list of public institutions that cemented Argentine culture and identity crosses disciplines such as cinema, sports, and literature. On Sunday night, 55% of the population turned their backs on Argentina and the country took another step in the process of Latin Americanization, which began in 1976 with the military dictatorship and the first wave of neoliberalism.
The incoming government has also proposed eliminating all state subsidies for public transportation, which will hit the pockets of the poorest precisely at a time when prices for most other things are already out of control. The government says the removal of the subsidies will help bring inflation down, which in turn will offset any economic pain occasioned by their removal. But these policies, even if they work, take time to feed through. And the government is preparing for widespread economic pain and discontent anyway, which is where Milei’s vice president, Victoria Villaruel, comes in.
Dark Echoes of the Past
The daughter of a high-ranking member of Argentina’s armed forces who refused to pledge loyalty to the constitution of Argentina’s new demorcatic system in 1987, Villarruel has made a name for herself by challenging the decades-long consensus over the dictatorship as well as questioning the number of victims, dead and disappeared, it created.
The lawyer seeks to pull off what seemed unthinkable until very recently: the political triumph of a revisionist current that challenges not only national court rulings after the fall of the dictatorship in 1983, but also the verdict of history.
영어로 revisionist(수정주의자)는 좋은 의미로 사용되지는 않습니다.
수정주의자들이 작은 사실의 조각을 현실의 불만에 파고 들어 부풀리고 설처되는 전술은 파시스트들과 같습니다.
문제는 이런 전술이 먹혀 들어 간다는 것이지요.
민주주의 치하에서 이런 일은 너무 자주 일어나고 ...이는 민주주의라는 체체 자체가 모순적이고 나약한 체제라는 것임을
스스로 증명하는 것입니다.
민주주의란 민이 똑똑하고 건강하지 않으면 결코 좋은 체체라 될 수 없습니다.
그런데 민이 똑똑하고 건강하기가 .......조 온 나 게 어렵다는 것이지요...불가능
민주주의란 처음 부터 불가능을 전제로 한 망상입니다.
한국의 경우와 꼭 같습니다...과거의 독재시절의 잘못된 역사를 바로 잡는 일이 정치화 되고 정쟁화 되면서 끊임 없는 정쟁을 낳앗고 결국은 반근혜의 당선과 윤성열 시대를 열게 햇습니다..
역사 청산과 같은 거대한 작업이 ...정치화 정쟁화 되엇을때 격게 되는 끔찍함 이지요.
자칭 진보 좌파놈들의 "토착왜구 박멸"이나 민족 국뽕질은 ...그런 의미에서도 끔찍합니다.
역사을 냉소하게 만든 것이지요..
In 2020, she signed the Madrid Charter, a document drafted by the far-right Spanish party Vox that describes left-wing groups, such as the São Paulo Forum and the Puebla Group, as enemies of Ibero-America and accuses them of engaging in “a criminal project under the umbrella of the Cuban regime” that “seeks to destabilise liberal democracies and the state of law.”
The day that Milei and Villaruel take office, December 10, will mark 40 years since Argentina’s return to democracy. It will also be the first time that a political party with family, emotional, and material ties to the military dictatorship takes power, notes Gullo:
Like a Trojan horse(트로이의 목마) but with flashing neon signs, the Military Party… has just entered a government in a democratic manner. In addition to denying the symbolic figure of the 30,000 disappeared and constantly denigrating the Mothers of Plaza de Mayo, Villarruel is the daughter and niece of convicted soldiers, and has the support of the torturers who are imprisoned for crimes against humanity.
And she will be in charge of defence and law and order, so once the protests, strikes and pickets inevitably begin following the first wave of spending cuts, privatisations and mass job losses, it will be her who will be calling the shots. The crackdown is likely to be brutal.
The right-wing demagogues are back in power in Argentina. And they are making headway in many other countries. And that bleak reality, writes the Spanish journalist Rafael Narbona, is largely the result of the failings of the democratic system as well as the enthusiastic embrace by left-wing parties of the underlying theses of neoliberalism.(민주주의가 썩은 체체 라는 것은 당장에 동의 할 수 잇겟쓰나 왜 좌파들이 그리도 신 자유주의에 미처 날튀엇는지는 정말 모를일입니다.....)
좌파 진보의 모든것을 분탕질한 천하 최악의 쥐쇗끼....노무현
결국 이자의 실퍠는 ...수구 꼴통들의 부활을 만들어 주엇고 이명박 박근뇌의 집권과
노무현교 구더기때라는 기이한 종들의 번식의 토양이 되엇습니다..
다른소린 이자가 대통령이 된 이후 바뀐것이 아니고....처음 부터 진보의 거죽을 쓰고 사기질로 권력을 도둑질 햇다는
생각입니다.
노무현교 구더기 때들..
다른소린 다른소리 생전에 이런 기이한 종들을 보게 될 것이라곤....정말 상상도 못 해 봣습니다.
Democracy is not a question of votes, but of values. Milei intends to cut social rights and whitewash the Videla (호르헤 라파엘 비델라...쿠테타로 페론 정부를 전복하고 대통령이 됨) regime. His program is not democratic and harms the weakest sectors of society. Why has he gotten so much support then? Perhaps because since the eighties the left has assumed the theses of neoliberalism.(군부의 억압 보다는 좌파의 신 자유주의화에서 그 원인을 찾앗습니다.....이는 한국의 경우도 꼭 같습니다..좌파 진보가 문제가 아니고 좌파 진보를 위장하여 수구가 집권을 해 왓다는 것이지요...그런 진보 좌파가 남긴 것이라면 ....처 먹은 뇌물이 포록나자 좆 같다며 입 앙당 처 물고 되진 교주님에 미처 날튀는 미친개들이 전부...... )
In Spain, Felipe González allowed real estate speculation, implemented bullshit job contracts, fought unions, cultivated corruption, resorted to state terrorism, applied a fierce program of deindustrialisation and got Spain involved in the first Iraq war. In the years that followed, voters experienced the impression that the right and the left only differed on minor issues,(한국에서는 북괴라는 좌우, 보수 진보를 구분 할 수 잇는 특수한 기준이 잇습니다....그러니 꼭 같은 개 지뤌을 떨더라도 대북 정책에 대한 차이로....화냥년과 갈보 정도의 구분은 할 수 잇는 정치인들에겐 환상적인 환경입니다....그런데 남북 분단이 없는 외국에서는 그런 구분 조차 할 수 없고...꼭 같이 갈보가 되 버린 것이지요) as they pursued the same antisocial agenda, protecting elite interests. It was not a local phenomenon, but a global one.
The demagogues took advantage of this situation to prosper. Trump, Bolsonaro and Milei have presented themselves as anti-system politicians, but the truth is that they are the most solid pillars of a system that continues to undermine the welfare state, favouring large commercial corporations.(실체를 보시기 바랍니다....노무현이 민주주의 라는 이름으로 만든 사람사는 세상이란 ...강남과 삼성만의 세상이엇습니다....노무현은 트럼프와 볼솔라노와 꼭 같이....체제에 도전하는 놈 처럼 보엿지만....철쩌하게 기득권에만 환장한 탁월한 쥐쇗끼엿습니다...) Media solo concerned with economic power and a growing disinterest in culture have also played their role in the rise of the demagogues.
The left will return to power, but it is not unlikely that it will make the same mistakes again.
(에휴....이걸 어떡합니까.....
그나마 그들은 실패할 것이 뻔한 좌파라도 잇고 기회라도 줘 볼 수 잇지만....한국은 그런 좌파조차 없고 실패할 기회 조차도 줄 수 없습니다............수구 꼴통들과 노무현교 꼴통들 말고 무슨 정치세력이 만들어 질 수 잇는지 ...그저 한숨만 나옵니다......
민주주의는 우리의 작은 희망 조차 화석화 시켯습니다...) When a statesman tries to carry out radical changes, he fatally seals his fate, as happened to Salvador Allende, Olof Palme and Patrice Lumumba.(이런 사람들은 다 살해 당햇습니다.....그들-우파라고 하던 기득권자라고 하던 제국주의자들이고 하던..혀튼 그들은....자신들에게 해로웟던 사람들을 결코 그냥 두지 않지요.
한국에서는 처 먹은 뇌물이 뽀록나자 좆 같다며 입 앙당 처 물고 되진놈은 나왓지만.. 기층 인민들과 민중들을 위한 정책을 펴다 ...사살 당한 정치인이 나오지 않앗다는 것은 그 만큼의 한국 정치의 봉건성을 의미 한다고 한다면 비약일까요??
글씨...........
다른소린 노무현에서 그런 그림을 그려 봣썻습니다....참 황당무개한 망상이엇지요...
뭔가에 홀리면 그리 됩니다.
여러분들은 다른소리 같은 빙쉰짓 하지 마세요..
한때 온 세계인들의 부러움을 삿던 스웨덴 복지 체체를 만든 사람입니다..
월남전에 반대 하엿쓰며 ...월남전에 반대하여 탈령한 미군들에게 스웨덴 시민권을 주고 스웨덴에서 살게 한 사람입니다.
그 스위덴에서는 극우 파시스트가 현재 수상입니다..
민주주의란 참으로 나약하고 좆도 아닌 체체입니다.