미해군 참모총장, 한-미-일 간 협력은 선택이 아닌 필수

[위종민]

마이크 길데이 미해군 참모총장이 지난 목요일 한미 안보단체 온라인 포럼에서 정보 및 첩보 공유, 인도태평양 지역에서의 합동훈련 참가, 플랫폼과 시스템의 상호운영성 증가 등에서 3국간의 협력은 이제 선택이 아니라 필수라고 발언했습니다. 물론 한일 양국간의 역사적 갈등이 여전하다는 사실도 인정했넨요. 

일본은 최근 5년간 방위비 지출을 2배로 늘릴 것이라고 발표했으며, 이지스 구축함 추가건조와 토마호크 미사일 도입을 발표했습니다. 

3국간 통합 MD에 대해선 표적 및 기타 정보 공유에 있어서 "on the precipice of something really important"라고 표현했네요. 

또한 미국이 한-일에 제공하는 확장억지력에는 '핵우산'이 포함돼 있으며 북한의 핵사용은 '정권의 종말을 가져올 것'이라는 10월 국가전략 발표문을 인용했다고 합니다. 

한국 군항을 모항으로 미해군 군함이 배치되는 것에 대해서는 "어떤 옵션도 테이블에서 빼지 않겠다."고 말했으며, 일본의 핵추진잠수함 건조 결정 가능성에 대해선 수 년간의 정치적, 재정적 지원을 필요로 하는 큰 결정이며, 적절한 인재와 훈련, 플랫폼과 노동력으로 구성된 지속성있는 생태계가 필요하다고 말했습니다. AUKUS에 따라 핵추진 잠수함 건조를 결정한 호주가 최초의 잠수함을 인도받는 건 2040년대 이후가 될 것이라고 합네요. 

https://news.usni.org/2023/01/13/cno-gilday-expanding-military-cooperation-between-south-korea-japan-a-necessity

CNO Gilday: Expanding Military Cooperation Between South Korea, Japan ‘A Necessity’

By: John Grady

January 13, 2023 5:39 PM

Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Adm. Mike Gilday delivers testimony at the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the fiscal year 2023 defense budget request on May 12, 2022. US Navy Photo

The Navy’s top officer stressed the need for “a forward-looking relationship” between Japan, South Korea and the United States. “It’s no longer a luxury but a necessity” that the three nations work together, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday said Thursday.

Examples of the improved trilateral relationship include information and intelligence sharing, participating in joint exercises in different regions of the Indo-Pacific and the interoperability of platforms and systems.

During a conversation at a Korean-American security group online forum, Gilday acknowledged that there are still historic grievances between the two nations that can disrupt a planned exercise or throw into question continued intelligence sharing. Tokyo and Seoul have “to get beyond poking each other in the eye” over these issues.

Gilday said the two nations are in “deeper discussions of unmanned systems,” mentioning the expansion of clandestine mine-laying as an example He also mentioned the work Japan is undertaking on its amphibious carriers to carry helicopters, F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters and marines as important developments in expanding the options to strengthen its defenses.

If Tokyo holds to this goal, Japan will be behind only Washington and Beijing in defense spending.

Recently, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s met with President Joe Biden to discuss mutual security concerns over China’s heightened threats to invade Taiwan and North Korea’s accelerated missile testing.

In December, Kishida announced that Japan will double its spending on defense over the next five years to address new threats in Northeast Asia. A key part of that new investment will be in building Aegis-equipped destroyers that will field 400 to 500 Tomahawk missiles, as well as boosting cyber capabilities and expanded development of unmanned systems.

On integrated missile defense among the three, Gilday said, “we’re on the precipice of something really important” in sharing targeting data and other information.

Gilday said the extended deterrence the United States provides against attack on its two allies includes “the nuclear umbrella.” He cited the National Defense Strategy released in October that says North Korea’s use of nuclear weapons would “result in the end of that regime.”

In the case of defending South Korea, he cited Biden’s spring trip to Seoul and Vice President Kamala Harris’ more recent visit to the Demilitarized Zone as demonstrations of the importance the United States places on the alliance.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said this week that if the North Korean threat to use nuclear weapons increases, Seoul may develop its own nuclear arsenal or ask the United States to redeploy these weapons to the peninsula.

The New York Times quoted the president as saying, “we can have our own nuclear weapons pretty quickly, given our scientific and technological capabilities.”

For South Korea, Gilday said that United States’ close collaboration in all five domains of warfare “demonstrates that we are working together.” He added, “I remain an optimist … on building multi-domain operations.”

He called the relationship between the two navies “a watertight alliance.”

When asked if homeporting U.S. warships in South Korea was under consideration, he said “I would never take any option off the table.” He said something similar when a questioner wondered if the United States would conduct freedom of navigation operations in the Yellow Sea.

Gilday said the point of deterrence is “to convince any particular adversary it’s not worth it to make a move.” He added, “we should not lose our nerve” in that commitment while trying not to escalate tensions in a crisis.

Any decision for Japan to build a nuclear-powered submarine is a huge step that would require the nation’s support politically and financially for years, Gilday said. That decision must be made with the understanding of “the totality of the ecosystem” for the initiative and that it will take decades to complete. Change “eco-system” for such a project requires “the right people, the right training, the right platforms, the right workforce” and sustainment, he said.

Gilday, using the agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States – known as AUKUS – as a possible model, said it will be “well into the 2040s” before Canberra launches its first nuclear-powered attack submarine.

Australia is expected to announce this quarter which submarine design it will choose to follow.

[마로]

이번에 일본 독트린 변화와 자체적 판단하에 북한을 상대로한 반격 가킁성을 천명한 이상 KTO내 작전통제의 원활성을 위해서도, 북한의 일본 열도에 대한 우발적 미사일 사격에서 발생할 수 있는 에스컬레이션을 통제하기 위해서도 한미일 공조가 구체화될 필요가 있는 것은 사실이긴합니다.

문제는 언제나 그렇듯 그걸 실현하는겁니다만... GSOMIA 가지고도 그 난리가 났는데 보다 상위의 작전통제 연계는 가능이나할지. 뭣보다 일본 헌법 제 2항 수정 없이는 법률적으로도 애로사항이 많고요.

[위종민]

16년 전 알렉산더 버시바우 미 대사가 다니던 대학에 오셔서 하신 강연 중 " 6자회담은 서로를 동등한 파트너로 인정한 채로 진행된 훌륭한 다자간 대응의 장이었다. 6자회담은 향후 러시아의 극동 개발과 초국경 오염 등 여러 역내 문제에 대응하기 위한 영구적인 지역 포럼으로서의 발전 가능성을 지녔다. 협의의 정례화를 통한 공식적 안보 체제 및 역내 경제 통합의 가능성도 있을 것이다."란 대목이 있었는데, 현실은 6자는 고사하고 3자, 양자간 조율도 버겁네요.