High prices, delayed US easing warrant rate freeze 고물가로 미국기준금리인하지연

[김우정]

한국은행은 어제 2022년 4월이후 7차례연속 기준금리를 3.5%로 동결했습니다.
이창용총재는 국내 부동산시장의 연착륙이 중요하다고 말했습니다.
또한 향후 기준금리 결정에 중요한 것은 5월 경제 데이터라고 강조했습니다.
한편, 올해 경제성장전망 2.1%, 내년 2.3% 로 기존 전망치를 유지했습니다.                                                                           
High prices, delayed US easing warrant rate freeze: BOK chief
한은총재: 고물가로 미국기준금리인하 지연

By Lee Kyung-min 이경민 기자
Posted : 2024-02-22 16:29 Updated : 2024-02-22 17:38
Korea Times


 

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong speaks during a press conference at the bank headquarters in Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap 이창용 한국은행 총재가 목요일 서울 중구 은행본점에서 기자회견을 갖고 발언하고 있다. 연합

Project financing, overseas commercial real estate risk exposures negligible
프로젝트 파이낸싱, 해외 상업용 부동산 위험 크지않음

Sticky inflation and a delayed dovish pivot by the U.S. Federal Reserve have made it hard for the Bank of Korea (BOK) to begin an easing cycle before July, the country’s top monetary policymaker said Thursday.
미국 연방준비제도이사회(FRB)의 비둘기파적인 선회가 지연되면서 한국은행이 7월 이전에 완화사이클을 시작하는 것을 어렵게 만들었다고 한국의 최고 통화정책입안자가 목요일 밝혔다.
 
The stance came on the heels of the central bank leaving the key rate at 3.5 percent, standing pat for the ninth meeting straight since April 2022. Anchoring the directive is inflation still showing signs of what the central bank has called “rocky downward movements,” as illustrated by the fresh food prices index hitting a seven-year high in January, despite headline inflation moderating to 2.8 percent. The high-2 percent figure is a stable downtrend from the 3 percent level sustained for the past five months straight.
한은이 기준금리를 3.5%로 동결한 데 이어 2022년 4월 이후 9번째 회의 연속 두드려졌다. 이 지침을 고정시키는 것은 헤드라인 인플레이션이 2.8%로 완화되었음에도 불구하고 신선식품 가격지수가 1월에 7년 만에 최고치를 기록한 것에서 보듯이 여전히 인플레이션이 중앙은행이 소위 말하는 "급격한 하락 움직임"의 징후를 보여주고 있다는 것이다. 이 2%트라는 높은 수치는 지난 5개월 연속 지속된 3% 수준에서 안정적으로 하락한 것이다.

The country’s fiscal and monetary authorities will ensure rigorous and effective implementation of macro-prudential measures for a soft landing of the local property market, the top risk factor that has long undermined the efficacy of the easing cycle, the BOK said.
한국의 재정 및 통화 당국은 국내 부동산 시장의 연착륙을 위해 거시 건전성 조치의 엄격하고 효과적인 이행을 보장할 것이라고 한은은 말했다.

 
May data crucial
5월자료가 중요

“The rate-setting committee will determine the policy path after a thorough review of incoming May data,” BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong said during a press conference at the bank headquarters, Thursday.
이창용 한은 총재는 목요일 은행 본부에서 가진 기자회견에서 "금융통화위원회는 다가오는 5월 자료를 면밀히 검토한 후 정책경로를 결정할 것"이라고 말했다.

The pace of inflation slowing down is not fast enough to trigger an easing, compounded further by lingering uncertainties in the global commodity markets, according to the governor.
총재에 따르면 인플레이션이 둔화되는 속도는 완화를 촉발할 만큼 빠르지 않으며, 이는 세계 상품시장의 불확실성이 지속됨에 따라 더욱 악화된다.

“Inflation is not trending down nearly as fast as needed, and global oil prices and elevated living expenses limit the downtick in inflation expectations,” he said.
그는 "인플레이션은 필요한 만큼 빠르게 하락하지 않고 있으며 세계 유가와 생활비 상승이 인플레이션 기대 하락을 제한한다"고 말했다.

Five of six monetary policy board members, Rhee said, are of the view that the current 3.5 percent will remain appropriate for the next three months. However, one member called for a rate cut, citing economic stagnation brought on and exacerbated by sustained high borrowing costs.
6명의 통화정책 위원 중 5명은 현재의 3.5%가 향후 3개월간 적정수준을 유지할 것이라는 견해라고 이 총재는 말했다. 그러나 한 위원은 지속적인 고차입비용으로 인한 경기침체와 악화를 이유로 금리인하를 요구했다.

“May data on economic growth and prices will set the monetary policy path forward,” he said.
그는 "5월 경제성장률과 물가에 대한 데이터가 통화정책 경로를 앞으로 설정할 것"이라고 말했다.

The probability of what many market watchers have termed the "April crisis" is low, Rhee said. Some observers claim Korea’s authorities are being mobilized to ward off an immediate financial crisis until the general elections, and the pent-up risk factors will cripple the economy after April 10.
많은 시장 관측통들이 말하는 "4월 위기"의 확률은 낮다고 이총재는 말했다. 일부 관측통들은 한국 당국이 총선까지 즉각적인 금융 위기를 막기 위해 동원되고 있으며 억눌려 있는 위험 요인들이 4월 10일 이후 경제를 마비시킬 것이라고 주장한다.

Rhee acknowledged that the concerns center on real estate project financing insolvencies and the plummeting overseas commercial real estate market — a combination of two major financial market contagion factors. Korea’s top five financial groups’ exposure to the overseas commercial real estate market totals 20 trillion won ($14.9 billion).
이 총재는 부동산 프로젝트 파이낸싱 부실과 폭락하는 해외 상업용 부동산 시장에 우려의 중심이 되고 있다는 점을 인정했는데 이는 두 가지 주요 금융시장 전염 요인이 복합적으로 작용한다. 국내 5대 금융그룹의 해외 상업용 부동산 시장 노출 규모는 총 20조원(149억 달러)에 달한다.

However, the risk exposures are not nearly as significant to bring a catastrophic outcome to the local financial services providers that engaged in lending.
그러나 위험 노출은 대출에 관여한 지역 금융 서비스 제공자들에게 재앙적인 결과를 가져올 만큼 크지 않다.

“I would like to ask them instead for proof as to why they raise those concerns which I cannot help but feel are largely overblown,” he said.
그는 "그들이 왜 그런 우려를 제기하는지에 대한 증거를 대신 요청하고 싶다며 대단히 과장된 것이라고 느끼지 않을 수 없다,"고 말했다.

Hyundai Research Institute Senior Researcher Ju Won said that Korea will not be able to lower its key rate before the Fed does.
주원 현대 연구소 연구실장은 한국이 연준이 기준금리를 내리기 전에는 내릴 수 없을 것이라고 말했다.

“Maintaining the gap in benchmark interest rates between the two countries has been and will continue to be the single most critical factor for the BOK monetary policy," he said. "The easing cycle will take shape in the latter half, provided that the Fed does it first in the first half.”
그는 "양국 간 기준금리 격차를 유지하는 것이 한은 통화정책의 유일한 가장 중요한 요인이었고 앞으로도 그럴 것,"이라며 "연준이 상반기에 먼저 한다면 하반기에는 완화 사이클이 구체화될 것."이라고 말했다

Kim Wan-joong, chief economist at Hana Institute of Finance and Hana Bank, expressed a similar opinion. “The BOK is unlikely to initiate a dovish pivot for at least a couple of months," he said. "High prices are of major concern, but equally troubling is the record-breaking household debt. It will be quite a headache having to balance out all relevant factors.”
김완중 하나금융연구원 수석이코노미스트도 비슷한 의견을 내놓았다. 그는 "한은이 최소한 두 달 정도는 비둘기파적인 방향전환을 하지 않을 것 같다,"며 "고물가가 주요 관심사이지만 기록적인 가계부채도 마찬가지로 문제라고 말했다. 모든 관련 요소들을 균형 있게 처리해야 하는 것은 골치 아픈 일이 될 것이다."

Korea will register a growth of 2.1 percent this year, in line with last year's forecast. Underpinning the BOK assessment is the continued weakening of consumption due to high borrowing costs and high prices being unable to offset the robust recovery of chip exports. The figure for next year is estimated at 2.3 percent.
한국은 지난해 전망치에 따라 올해 2.1%의 성장률을 기록할 것으로 전망했다. 고차입비용과 고물가로 인한 소비 위축이 반도체수출의 호조세를 상쇄하지 못하고 있다는 점이 한은의 평가를 뒷받침한다. 내년 전망치는 2.3%이다.

Consumer prices on an annual basis are expected to inch up to 2.6 percent this year, the central bank said. The figure will rise as high as 2.9 percent in the first half, before tracking down to 2.3 in the latter half.
중앙은행은 연간 기준소비자물가가 금년 2.6%까지 오를 것으로 예상된다고 말했다. 이 수치는 상반기에 2.9%까지 오른 뒤 하반기에 2.3%로 내려갈 것이다.

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