러시아 공군은 2년 동안 보유기의 10%만 손실, 지상전 포탄소비량은 곧 우크라이나를 10배로 압도할 것

[위종민]

미 유럽사령부 사령관이 크리스토퍼 카볼리 대장이 하원 군사위 청문회에서 러시아 공군의 항공기 손실은 전체 항공기의 10%에 불과하며, 그 외 전략군, 장거리 항공군, 사이버-우주-전자기 스펙트럼 능력은 전혀 손실받지 않았다고 증언했습니다. 

러시아는 2,000대 이상의 전차와 315,000명의 사상자를 내는 등 막대한 인명, 재산상 손실을 입었지만 이란의 드론과 북한의 탄도미사일을 구입하고 군대를 개편해 전장에서 우위를 차지했고, 생산량을 비축해 주기적으로 대규모 공습을 실시한다고 분석했네요. 하지만 러시아의 육-해-공 전력 통합이 부족해 제한적 우위에 그치고 있다고 얘기했습니다. 

러시아와 우크라이나의 포탄 소모비율은 현재 5:1에서 몇 주 안에 10:1로 올라갈 거라고 증언했습니다. 

러시아 공군기들은 SAM을 피하기 위해 전술을 조정해, 저고도 침투 후 팝업해 폭탄을 던지고 바로 이탈한다고 합니다. 

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/russian-air-force-has-only-lost-10-percent-of-fleet-in-ukraine-us-officials-say/

A Russian Federation air force A-50 airborne warning and control aircraft takes off to participate in Exercise Vigilant Eagle Aug. 8., 2011. U.S. Air Force photo

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Russian Air Force Has Only Lost 10 Percent of Fleet in Ukraine, US Officials Say

April 10, 2024 | By Chris Gordon

The Russian air force has lost just one-tenth of its fleet while many of its military capabilities remain largely unaffected after more than two years of war in Ukraine, the top U.S. commander in Europe told Congress on April 10. 

“We do not see significant losses in the air domain, especially their long-range and strategic aviation fleets,” Army Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the head of U.S. European Command and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing.

“Russia’s strategic forces, long-range aviation, cyber capabilities, space capabilities, and capabilities in the electromagnetic spectrum have lost no capacity at all. The air force has lost some aircraft, but only about 10 percent of their fleet,” Cavoli added in his written testimony to the committee.

There is no question that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has come at an enormous cost in blood and treasure. Russia has lost more than 2,000 tanks and suffered 315,000 casualties in the conflict, Cavoli testified. The full-scale invasion has cost Russia $211 billion to equip, deploy, maintain, and sustain its forces in Ukraine, added Celeste Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs.

But Russia’s efforts to rebuild its military and the Kremlin’s decision to acquire drones from Iran and ballistic missiles from North Korea have boosted Moscow’s fortunes on the battlefield.

“Russia launches very large-scale attacks every few days keeping with their production rate,” Cavoli said of Russia’s aerial barrages. “They produce, they save up, they launch a big attack.”

In the short term, Russia has sought to gain the edge in Ukraine in what has become a battle of attrition, though the Russians’ ability to integrate air, land, and sea capabilities also has its limitations. As U.S. military aid for Kyiv has remained stalled in the U.S. Congress, Russia is using one-way attack drones and long-range missiles to try to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses. The Russians are currently firing five times as many artillery shells as Ukraine, and Moscow’s advantage will grow without fresh military supplies from the U.S.

“That will immediately go to 10-1 in a matter of weeks,” Cavoli said. “We are not talking hypothetically.”

In the long term, Russia is striving to develop its global capabilities. Russia has poured resources into its nuclear forces. It is also looking to expand its conventional ground forces in the years ahead. To do so, Russia has raised the upper age for conscription from 27 to 30, which has enlarged the pool of potential conscripts by 2 million. It is also planning to restructure ground forces so that it can deploy new formations in Ukraine and opposite Finland, Cavoli told lawmakers.

“Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested,” Cavoli said. “The army is actually now larger—by 15 percent—than it was when it invaded Ukraine.”

While Russia’s navy has suffered significant losses in the Black Sea, the rest of its naval forces are intact and its worldwide naval activity is at a peak, the NATO commander added. 

Ukraine has achieved some success against Russia’s air force, known as the VKS, including taking down at least two of Russia’s A-50 Mainstay command and control aircraft. 

But Russian aircraft have generally adapted by staying out of the engagement zone for Ukraine’s air defenses, many of which have been Western-provided. U.S.-made F-16s, which will provide greater capability for the Ukrainian air force, are months away. Relying on standoff weapons, Russian bombers have stayed clear of Ukrainian air defenses. When Russian warplanes have ventured into Ukraine’s airspace, they adjusted their tactics—and so has Ukraine.

“What we saw at the beginning of the war were if they got within range of those surface-to-air missiles, they got shot down on both sides,” a senior U.S. defense official told Air & Space Forces Magazine in February. That changed soon after the invasion. 

“Instead of coming from high altitude where the surface-to-air missile can see you and then shoot long-range shots, they’ll come in at low altitude, where now they can’t see it because of the curvature of the earth, then come out of low altitude, jump up, drop their bombs, and go out right away,” the defense official added. “They weren’t doing that at the beginning, but that’s obviously a lesson that they learned.”

[백선호]

저고도 침투 후 pop-up해서 폭탄 던지는 것은 결국 Close Air Support 임무네요. 전선 너머 깊이 침투해서 후방을 폭격하는 Interdiction은 여전히 시도를 못하고 있는 것 같습니다.

[위종민]

그런 역할은 아쉬운대로 드론에 맡기는 것 같습니다. 아우디우카처럼 중요한 전역엔 전력을 집중해 항공우세 달성 후 유도폭탄을 집중적으로 몰아 쓰는 것 같고요.

[provide07]

웬만큼 정비가 끝났는데 확실히 전선을 못 밀어내는 건 그전에 손실이 너무 컸기 때문에?

[위종민]

춘계 라스푸티차 시즌이라서 그랬을 수도 있고요. 이제 라스푸티차도 끝났을 테고 러시아에서 어디 한 군데를 두들겨서 우크라이나를 압박할 차례죠.